• Canada election 2021 polls 13 Sept edition

    From The Doctor@21:1/5 to All on Tue Sep 14 04:11:24 2021
    XPost: can.politics, can.general

    https://338canada.com/

    Federal Vote Projection

    LPC 32.1 error 4.4 %
    CPC 31.6 error 4.3 %
    NDP 18.8 error 3.4 %
    BQ 6.9 err 0.9 %
    PPC 6,2 err 2.5%
    GPC 3.3 err 1.1

    LPC 146 err 43
    CPC 126 err 37
    NDP 32 err 14
    BQ 32 err 10
    GPC 2.1 err 1.6
    PPC 0 to 1.2

    Regional distribution

    Federal vote projection averages per region | September 13, 2021

    ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National
    LPC 40% 33% 38% 23% 17% 28% 31% 32.1%
    CPC 32% 18% 33% 41% 52% 30% 26% 31.6%
    NDP 18% 12% 19% 24% 19% 28% 32% 18.8%
    BQ 0% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6.9%
    PPC 5% 4% 7% 8% 7% 6% 0% 6.2%
    GPC 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 6% 8% 3.3%
    MPC 0% 0% 0% 2% 3% 0% 0% 0.4%


    Federal seat projection averages per region | September 13, 2021

    ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National
    LPC 22.4 34.4 67.1 5.8 2.9 12.6 1.3 146.3
    CPC 9.1 10.6 42.9 17.1 29.7 16.0 0.2 125.6
    NDP 0.5 1.1 10.5 5.1 1.4 11.9 1.5 32.1
    BQ 0.0 31.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.6
    GPC 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 2.1
    PPC 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3

    https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/


    Liberal Justin Trudeau 31.9% -0.1
    Conservative Erin O'Toole 31.3% -0.4
    New Democrat Jagmeet Singh 19.3% +0.3
    People's Party Maxime Bernier 6.5% -0.2
    Bloc Quebecois Yves-Francois Blanchet 6.4% +0.1
    Green Annamie Paul 3.6% +0.1
    Other 1.1% +0.1

    https://calculatedpolitics.ca/projection/canadian-federal-election/#1613342571189-f997c9a0-4ca3

    LPC 31.4 err 3.1 %
    CPC 31.9 err 3.2 %
    NDP 19.8 err 2.0 %
    BQ 6.5 err 0.7 %
    GPC 3.4 err 0.4%
    Other 7.0 err 0.7 %

    https://calculatedpolitics.ca/projection/canadian-federal-election/#1613342571207-b57a6991-2530

    LPC 151 seats (124 - 160)
    CPC 124 seats (110 - 146)
    NDP 33 (26 - 51)
    BQ 28 (22-38)
    GPC 2 (0-6)
    Other 0(0-3)

    http://www.electionprediction.org/2021_fed/index.php


    Current Prediction:
    Changed: 2021-09-13 23:03:15ET



    Liberal Party
    Parti Liberal 105
    Conservative Party
    Parti Conservateur 108
    N.D.P.
    N.P.D. 20
    Bloc Quebecois 20
    Green Party
    Parti Vert 1
    Too Close 84
    Total 338

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

    Polling firm Last date of polling[a] Link CPC LPC NDP BQ GPC PPC Other Margin of error[b] Sample size[c] Polling method[d] Lead

    EKOS September 12, 2021 HTML 31.9 30.3 20.3 6.0 3.7 7.0 0.8 err 2.9 pp 1,115 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 1.6
    Nanos Research September 12, 2021 PDF 30.2 33.2 18.6 6.8 3.8 6.6 0.8 err 2.8 pp 1,268 (1/3) telephone (rolling) 3.0
    Mainstreet Research September 12, 2021 HTML 28.6 33.5 17.1 7.9 3.7 8.4 0.9 err 2.3 pp 1,711 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 4.9
    Abacus Data September 12, 2021 HTML 32 32 21 6 3 4 2 err 2.1 pp 2,000 online 0
    Angus Reid September 12, 2021 PDF 32 30 21 7 2 6 2 err 2.5 pp 1,840 online 2
    Counsel September 11, 2021 HTML 30.2 29.7 21.9 6.5 4.4 5.6 1.7 err 1.7 pp 3,320 online 0.5
    EKOS September 11, 2021 HTML 32.8 31.1 19.0 4.7 3.9 7.8 0.7 err 2.9 pp 1,162 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 1.7
    Nanos Research September 11, 2021 PDF 30.7 34.0 18.6 6.6 4.1 5.1 0.9 err 2.8 pp 1,252 (1/3) telephone (rolling) 3.3
    Mainstreet Research September 11, 2021 HTML 29.4 33.4 17.6 7.4 3.1 8.1 1.0 err 2.3 pp 1,706 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 4.0
    Forum Research September 10, 2021 PDF 31 28 18 8 4 9 2 err 3 pp 1,579 IVR 3
    EKOS September 10, 2021 HTML 30.9 30.4 19.9 4.6 4.3 9.1 0.8 err 2.8 pp 1,238 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 0.5
    Nanos Research September 10, 2021 PDF 30.1 34.4 19.0 6.4 4.6 5.0 0.7 err 2.8 pp 1,249 (1/3) telephone (rolling) 4.3
    Mainstreet Research September 10, 2021 HTML 30.2 33.9 17.9 6.4 2.6 7.9 1.0 err 2.3 pp 1,751 (1/3) IVR (rolling) 3.7
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