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The novel coronavirus has infected more than 26.35 million
people, with just four countries accounting for over 15 million
cases. They are the United States, Brazil, India and Russia —
the same four that have been at the top for months. The US
surprised the world when it rose to the top spot in multiple
COVID-19 statistics, both for the total number of confirmed
cases and the number of deaths. Since then, no other country has
surpassed America.

But scientists who are studying the pandemic have also
identified another surprise of the pandemic. Some expected the
African continent to be affected most heavily by the virus, but
that wasn’t the case. South Africa stands out when it comes to
the number of total cases, with nearly 631,000 infections. But
fewer than 15,000 people have died of COVID-19. These figures
are puzzling scientists looking to understand how the virus
behaves and how it can be beaten.

The hypothesis that poverty should have a significant impact on
the spread of the virus doesn’t stand when it comes to the
entire African continent. Developing countries like Brazil and
India showed that the virus couldn’t be contained once it
reached densely populated, but poor, neighborhoods.

Experts expected the same thing to happen in Africa, but it
didn’t. If anything, Africa is doing better than any other
continent, both when it comes to cases and casualties. As BBC
News explains, even if those numbers are significantly
underreported, Africa still has it much better than other
continents right now.

“I thought we were heading towards a disaster, a complete
meltdown,” Professor Shabir Madhi told BBC News. The UK’s top
virologist echoed what others must have thought about the
African coronavirus outbreak. But South Africa’s death rate is
almost seven times lower than in the UK.

Salim Abdool Karim, the head of the country’s COVID-19 response
team, told the BBC that “most African countries don’t have a
peak,” which is surprising. “I don’t understand why. I’m
completely at sea,” he added.

He explained that factors like population density would be a
critical factor that would favor the rapid spread of the illness
inside the African continent. Crowding in poverty-stricken areas
makes social distancing all but impossible, and that increases
the risk of COVID-19 spreading.

One hypothesis that can explain the disparity between Africa and
other continents concerns the overall age of the population. In
general, the population of Africa is younger than in regions
hardest-hit by COVID-19.

Another hypothesis will sound familiar to those who have been
following coronavirus developments closely. Some researchers
have shown that other human coronaviruses that cause common
colds can elicit an immune response that could provide
protection against COVID-19. South African researchers went to
work on that idea, attempting to analyze five-year-old blood
samples that were conserved from a flu vaccine trial in Soweto.
The plan was to look for any evidence that would explain why the
African continent is faring much better against the illness than
others. Those samples were compromised by technical issues that
put a stop to the research.

But the idea stands. The same crowded neighborhoods that would
lead to the quick spread of other coronaviruses may have
protected the population from SARS-CoV-2.

“It’s a hypothesis. Some level of pre-existing cross-protective
immunity … might explain why the epidemic didn’t unfold [the way
it did in other parts of the world],” Mahdi said. “The
protection might be much more intense in highly populated areas,
in African settings. It might explain why the majority [on the
continent] have asymptomatic or mild infections.”

“I can’t think of anything else that would explain the numbers
of completely asymptomatic people we’re seeing. The numbers are
completely unbelievable,” he said.

But if that hypothesis is true, why have Brazil and India seen
massive COVID-19 surges in the past few months? Karim warned
that even considering the evolution of the pandemic on the
continent so far, Africa isn’t out of the woods. “I’m not sure
whether one day the epidemic is going to spread like crazy
here,” he said.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/04/scientists-cant-explain-puzzling- lack-of-coronavirus-outbreaks-in-africa/

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