There is a side of the War in Ukraine we are not being told: inflation eats up the salaries,
retirements and the savings of the little Ukrainian man and woman who honestly worked
their entire lives.

This probably won't hurt so much the underworld and the "sponsored girls" as they will
adapt to any inflation just like the tax system.

But any honest and sound businesses will eventually be eaten up as their accumulation of
wealth will plummet under inflation.

This will also hurt all who invested. The only ones who seem to benefit are those who
had loans under fixed interest rates, but those are relatively few compared to those whose
interest rates and monthly payments for loans will skyrocket and exceed their salaries and/or
retirements which will not grow so fast, putting them effectively in debt slavery and
under foreclosures of the property under mortgage (the very apartments they bought for
a loan), and leaving them still in debt.

Five days ago, it became obvious that Ukraine is in danger of losing another war, and this
is having its economy plummet faster than the one of its mortal adversary.

I recall this happening in Croatia in the 90s, with inflation of 30% per month, what was survived
mainly because Serbia got it worse. Nevertheless, it created large mafia and criminal lobby
in the ruling Party of HDZ, and oligarchic tycoonisation (which plagues the country to the present
day, 300 years after the events).

My prayer is that the world might see the need for an immediate action. But the world's
action is never immediate nor even quick or fast. As the financing of the war by printed money
is certainly the worst scenario that would break the back of the common citizen, everything
else should be considered first. Less than ideal loans can eventually be reprogrammed later,
when the credit rating will recover, as it happened with Croatia (now it is BBB+).

May the Lord God Creator guide you in more detail with this issue, and help you secure the
loans and aid.

REFERENCES:

[1] https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-ukraine-to-rd-12-08-2022
[2] https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/rating

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Partial restoration of the Ukrainian grain exports was good news,
both for the Ukrainian budget and for those who depend on the Ukrainian
grain for staple food.

But this is far from over and enough.

Ukraine is currently in the state of SD (sovereign default credit rating), which means it can no longer service its international and internal debt.
This is a bad piece of news, and the international humanitarian and military aid is mildly futile in the long run if the Ukrainian economy will no longer
be able to borrow money and only finance from printed grivnjas without
cover (which will skyrocket inflation).

Thereof it is recommended that the Ukrainian debt may be reprogrammed
and refinanced in a way that would enable Ukraine to recover and survive.

Without this step, no HIRMAS weapon or equivalent will help Ukraine
survive a war in which Russia has the advantage of still exporting
gas and oil to Europe and the majority of the countries in the world.

in the name of the Lord
Amen

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RECOVERED FROM DEFAULT? THANK GOD!

What happened? The Fitch Ratings agency upgraded Ukraine's long-term foreign currency credit rating from “RD” (restricted default) to “CC” (possible default).

Source. The agency's website.

Details. It is noted that the rating increased due to the restructuring of the external debt. As approximately $6 billion of principal and interest on Ukraine's Eurobonds has been deferred by 24 months, alleviating external debt servicing pressure. The
restructuring received the consent of 75% of bondholders (by aggregate principal amount), above the 66.7% minimum required.

Despite this, analysts of the rating agency note the unresolved debt sustainability risks resulting from russia's attack.

“We expect the war to extend well into 2023, driving public debt above 100% of GDP, adding to the already huge costs to infrastructure and economic output, and fuelling inflationary and external pressures, while deficit financing sources remain
uncertain. A broader restructuring of the government's commercial debt is therefore probable in our view, although the timing is uncertain,” Fitch points out.

Saved by the bell!

[1] https://mind.ua/en/news/20245826-the-fitch-agency-upgraded-ukraines-credit-rating
[2] http://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-upgrades-ukraine-to-cc-17-08-2022

However, this is far from over. Impending payments will also have to be refinanced or reprogrammed.

in the Lord
Amen

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Dear friends. In any war or conflict, we might be oversensitive to constructive criticism.

I feel obliged to clarify my position: my support for the Ukrainian nation, Ukrainian independence, Ukrainian territorial integrity, and the Ukrainian Orthodox Christian church are steadfast and unwavering.

However, there is a but. In none of the principles and sacraments above, but in warning you about the serious dangers of debt slavery.
I would support the Ukrainian government's efforts in saving and austerity, as the opposite is printing money without value in golden reserves, foreign currency reserves or strength of the economy, which would produce further inflation and eventually
further devalvation.

in the Lord
Amen

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UKRAINIAN WAR ECONOMY

As this unfortunate and unwanted war continues on its course, it becomes
more and more obvious that not only military strength will prevail: it is essential to support strong enough economy to sustain a war that might
last from three to more than ten more years, until the occupied territory
is recovered and the land reaches full freedom in its internationally recognised borders.

At present, the Ukrainian external debt is around USD 132 billion,
(December 2022) and that part cannot be refinanced by printing more
hrivnjas: moreover, such failed policy would only devalue salaries, retirements, savings and investments, while loans are mostly secured
in foreign currency like the euro or Swiss frank clause.

The only way to win the economic war with Russia is to produce more
and spend less on non-essential goods that do not contribute to war
economy. Otherwise, Ukraine might collapse from inside out: even if
her brave soldiers win on the battlefield, the future of the country
would still be doomy and gloomy: once the markets are opened,
the Russians could purchase on the stock exchange what they have
lost in the war, if the Russian economy proves more vital.

Unfortunately, it appears that the Ukrainian economy had suffered
great deindustrialisation just when it was supposed to build
the opposite trend since 2014 and the short annexation of Crimea.
There's no use in crying over split milk, but now this trend should
be reversed: Ukraine must be made self-sufficient in defence to win this war. The logistics and lack of ammunition on the front lines are the matter
for the military command, but they became somewhat synonymous
to the Ukrainian war, while "disorganised and incompetent" Russian army
still manages to bring enough and enough artillery shells and missiles
to cause the destruction of cities.they

In the long run, the rebelled Russian-speaking entities of the Donbas region will have to be given some abolition for the rebellion and insurrection
(can we use the word betrayal since they thought fought for their Russian friends and saviours?).

Additionally, a wise government would give them sufficient autonomy
within the internatinally recognised Ukrainian borders, and investigate
the reports on human rights abuse by the Ukrainian forces on the Russian minority and POWs.

The international community should in turn respond with very simple
measures, such as reprogramming the Ukrainian debt with zero-interest
war loans. This would enable Ukraine to start paying off debt, and not
only interest - otherwise the country will plummet sooner than Russia
which has its production assembly deep within the secured area and
far from the reach of Ukrainian weapons or missiles, practically
operating in conditions of peace.

If disregarding the economic side of the game, and sticking to their
short-term interest, the West could economically sink their vital ally
when they are most needed.

This time, not only servicing the bottom obligations and preventing
Ukrainian sovereign default like the last year this time would do,
but an overhaul debt restructuring and reprogramming with zero-interest
loans like those seen in the COVID crisis times.

However, it is up to Ukrainian morals and patriotism not to turn this opportunity for personal gain and the negative trends that would
inflict a surge on spending and inflation. Ukrainians have proven
that they are willing to die for their freedom and their country, but
are they willing to live in austerity so it wouldn't become a debt-slave?

in the LORD
Amen

REFERENCE:

[1] https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/ukraine/external-debt

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