• Covid-19 FAQs

    From David Jones@21:1/5 to All on Thu Feb 4 17:47:58 2021
    Covid-19 FAQs

    The RSS has just published this webpage "Covid-19 FAQs". This mainly
    relates to statistical aspects of Covid in the UK, but may be of
    interest elsewhere.

    https://rss.org.uk/policy-campaigns/policy/covid-19-task-force/covid-19-faqs/

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Ulrich@21:1/5 to dajhawkxx@nowherel.com on Mon Feb 15 11:24:26 2021
    On Thu, 4 Feb 2021 17:47:58 +0000 (UTC), "David Jones"
    <dajhawkxx@nowherel.com> wrote:

    Covid-19 FAQs

    The RSS has just published this webpage "Covid-19 FAQs". This mainly
    relates to statistical aspects of Covid in the UK, but may be of
    interest elsewhere.

    https://rss.org.uk/policy-campaigns/policy/covid-19-task-force/covid-19-faqs/


    BTW, thanks for the link.

    Question: Does anyone know of modeling for how quickly
    "death" follows infection, or symptoms, or hospitalization?

    Months ago, I picked up "about 5 days" for symptoms, 10 days
    for hospitalization, and 20 days for death. But those were
    estimates of the means, the scanty start of modeling, without
    distributions attached.

    What I have noticed here (U.S.) is that the number of
    "confirmed cases" fell in the second half of January (from
    values previously over 200 thousand per day) to the present
    level that is slightly under 100 thousand per day. Hospitalizations
    are also down, from 125 thousand beds (total) to 80 thousand.

    But the rate of deaths persists at over 3000 per day, from the
    numbers I collect from Johns Hopkins. I figured that true death
    rates could have been increased due to hospital crowding in
    January, but those conditions have eased.

    So, I'm wondering, what is going on. Maybe the lag is a
    little more than I expected? Models?

    - I wonder if the terrible data collection that owed to the T**** administration is being upgraded.

    --
    Rich Ulrich

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From David Jones@21:1/5 to Rich Ulrich on Mon Feb 15 21:13:18 2021
    Rich Ulrich wrote:

    On Thu, 4 Feb 2021 17:47:58 +0000 (UTC), "David Jones" <dajhawkxx@nowherel.com> wrote:

    Covid-19 FAQs

    The RSS has just published this webpage "Covid-19 FAQs". This mainly relates to statistical aspects of Covid in the UK, but may be of
    interest elsewhere.


    https://rss.org.uk/policy-campaigns/policy/covid-19-task-force/covid-19-faqs/


    BTW, thanks for the link.

    Question: Does anyone know of modeling for how quickly
    "death" follows infection, or symptoms, or hospitalization?

    Months ago, I picked up "about 5 days" for symptoms, 10 days
    for hospitalization, and 20 days for death. But those were
    estimates of the means, the scanty start of modeling, without
    distributions attached.


    This is a fairly recent outline of progression


    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-covid19-day-by-day-symptoms-patients-2020-2?op=1&r=US&IR=T

    THere are older versions, such as these https://heavy.com/news/2020/04/covid-19-symptoms-day-by-day-chart-of-coronavirus-signs/

    https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/covid-19-symptoms-progress-death-3536264/


    What I have noticed here (U.S.) is that the number of
    "confirmed cases" fell in the second half of January (from
    values previously over 200 thousand per day) to the present
    level that is slightly under 100 thousand per day. Hospitalizations
    are also down, from 125 thousand beds (total) to 80 thousand.

    But the rate of deaths persists at over 3000 per day, from the
    numbers I collect from Johns Hopkins. I figured that true death
    rates could have been increased due to hospital crowding in
    January, but those conditions have eased.

    So, I'm wondering, what is going on. Maybe the lag is a
    little more than I expected? Models?

    You may need to take into account the improved treatments for Covid
    that have been developed (non-vaccine), leading to fewer deaths.

    https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/features/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-covid-19-therapy-trials/20208126.article?firstPass=false

    https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/news/dexamethasone-is-first-drug-to-be-shown-to-improve-survival-in-covid-19/20208074.article



    - I wonder if the terrible data collection that owed to the T**** administration is being upgraded.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Ulrich@21:1/5 to dajhawk18xx@@nowhere.com on Mon Feb 15 23:13:29 2021
    On Mon, 15 Feb 2021 21:13:18 +0000 (UTC), "David Jones" <dajhawk18xx@@nowhere.com> wrote:

    Rich Ulrich wrote:

    On Thu, 4 Feb 2021 17:47:58 +0000 (UTC), "David Jones"
    <dajhawkxx@nowherel.com> wrote:

    Covid-19 FAQs

    The RSS has just published this webpage "Covid-19 FAQs". This mainly
    relates to statistical aspects of Covid in the UK, but may be of
    interest elsewhere.

    https://rss.org.uk/policy-campaigns/policy/covid-19-task-force/covid-19-faqs/ >>

    BTW, thanks for the link.

    Question: Does anyone know of modeling for how quickly
    "death" follows infection, or symptoms, or hospitalization?

    Months ago, I picked up "about 5 days" for symptoms, 10 days
    for hospitalization, and 20 days for death. But those were
    estimates of the means, the scanty start of modeling, without
    distributions attached.


    This is a fairly recent outline of progression


    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-covid19-day-by-day-symptoms-patients-2020-2?op=1&r=US&IR=T

    Wuhan was before anyone knew much at all.


    THere are older versions, such as these >https://heavy.com/news/2020/04/covid-19-symptoms-day-by-day-chart-of-coronavirus-signs/

    https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/covid-19-symptoms-progress-death-3536264/


    What I have noticed here (U.S.) is that the number of
    "confirmed cases" fell in the second half of January (from
    values previously over 200 thousand per day) to the present
    level that is slightly under 100 thousand per day. Hospitalizations
    are also down, from 125 thousand beds (total) to 80 thousand.

    But the rate of deaths persists at over 3000 per day, from the
    numbers I collect from Johns Hopkins. I figured that true death
    rates could have been increased due to hospital crowding in
    January, but those conditions have eased.

    So, I'm wondering, what is going on. Maybe the lag is a
    little more than I expected? Models?

    You may need to take into account the improved treatments for Covid
    that have been developed (non-vaccine), leading to fewer deaths.

    https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/features/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-covid-19-therapy-trials/20208126.article?firstPass=false

    https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/news/dexamethasone-is-first-drug-to-be-shown-to-improve-survival-in-covid-19/20208074.article

    That last one was way back in June. But these numbers surprised
    me, in both directions. This is for the control group in a
    dexamethasone trial.

    "Among the patients in the control group, mortality after 28 days
    was found to be highest in those who required ventilation (41%),
    intermediate in those patients who required oxygen only (25%), and
    lowest among those who did not require any respiratory intervention
    (13%)."

    I thought that back in June, it was still like 85% on ventilation who
    died. On the other side, I did not know that so many as 13% of
    the non-respiratory cases died. And I don't know what symptoms
    they do represent.



    - I wonder if the terrible data collection that owed to the T****
    administration is being upgraded.

    --
    Rich Ulrich

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From David Jones@21:1/5 to Rich Ulrich on Tue Feb 16 12:14:23 2021
    Rich Ulrich wrote:

    On Mon, 15 Feb 2021 21:13:18 +0000 (UTC), "David Jones" <dajhawk18xx@@nowhere.com> wrote:

    Rich Ulrich wrote:

    On Thu, 4 Feb 2021 17:47:58 +0000 (UTC), "David Jones"
    <dajhawkxx@nowherel.com> wrote:

    Covid-19 FAQs

    The RSS has just published this webpage "Covid-19 FAQs". This
    mainly >> > relates to statistical aspects of Covid in the UK, but
    may be of >> > interest elsewhere.



    https://rss.org.uk/policy-campaigns/policy/covid-19-task-force/covid-19-faqs/


    BTW, thanks for the link.

    Question: Does anyone know of modeling for how quickly
    "death" follows infection, or symptoms, or hospitalization?

    Months ago, I picked up "about 5 days" for symptoms, 10 days
    for hospitalization, and 20 days for death. But those were
    estimates of the means, the scanty start of modeling, without
    distributions attached.


    This is a fairly recent outline of progression



    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-covid19-day-by-day-symptoms-patients-2020-2?op=1&r=US&IR=T

    Wuhan was before anyone knew much at all.


    THere are older versions, such as these

    https://heavy.com/news/2020/04/covid-19-symptoms-day-by-day-chart-of-coronavirus-signs/


    https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/covid-19-symptoms-progress-death-3536264/


    What I have noticed here (U.S.) is that the number of
    "confirmed cases" fell in the second half of January (from
    values previously over 200 thousand per day) to the present
    level that is slightly under 100 thousand per day. Hospitalizations
    are also down, from 125 thousand beds (total) to 80 thousand.

    But the rate of deaths persists at over 3000 per day, from the
    numbers I collect from Johns Hopkins. I figured that true death
    rates could have been increased due to hospital crowding in
    January, but those conditions have eased.

    So, I'm wondering, what is going on. Maybe the lag is a
    little more than I expected? Models?

    You may need to take into account the improved treatments for Covid
    that have been developed (non-vaccine), leading to fewer deaths.


    https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/features/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-covid-19-therapy-trials/20208126.article?firstPass=false


    https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/news/dexamethasone-is-first-drug-to-be-shown-to-improve-survival-in-covid-19/20208074.article

    That last one was way back in June. But these numbers surprised
    me, in both directions. This is for the control group in a
    dexamethasone trial.

    "Among the patients in the control group, mortality after 28 days
    was found to be highest in those who required ventilation (41%),
    intermediate in those patients who required oxygen only (25%), and
    lowest among those who did not require any respiratory intervention
    (13%)."

    I thought that back in June, it was still like 85% on ventilation who
    died. On the other side, I did not know that so many as 13% of
    the non-respiratory cases died. And I don't know what symptoms
    they do represent.


    No doubt there are differences in protocols about when patients should
    be placed on the different types of ventilator.


    But you did ask about modelling. Have you looked at

    https://covidsim.org/

    You can change the country if it doesn't start with your location. It
    seems that this automatically makes use of the most recent data
    available. The various tabs on the top bar lead to details of the
    models, including times of transition between stages of the disease.





    - I wonder if the terrible data collection that owed to the T****
    administration is being upgraded.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Ulrich@21:1/5 to dajhawkxx@nowherel.com on Tue Feb 16 17:13:08 2021
    On Tue, 16 Feb 2021 12:14:23 +0000 (UTC), "David Jones" <dajhawkxx@nowherel.com> wrote:

    Rich Ulrich wrote:

    On Mon, 15 Feb 2021 21:13:18 +0000 (UTC), "David Jones"
    <dajhawk18xx@@nowhere.com> wrote:

    Rich Ulrich wrote:

    On Thu, 4 Feb 2021 17:47:58 +0000 (UTC), "David Jones"
    <dajhawkxx@nowherel.com> wrote:

    Covid-19 FAQs

    The RSS has just published this webpage "Covid-19 FAQs". This
    mainly >> > relates to statistical aspects of Covid in the UK, but
    may be of >> > interest elsewhere.


    https://rss.org.uk/policy-campaigns/policy/covid-19-task-force/covid-19-faqs/ >> >>

    BTW, thanks for the link.

    Question: Does anyone know of modeling for how quickly
    "death" follows infection, or symptoms, or hospitalization?

    Months ago, I picked up "about 5 days" for symptoms, 10 days
    for hospitalization, and 20 days for death. But those were
    estimates of the means, the scanty start of modeling, without
    distributions attached.


    This is a fairly recent outline of progression


    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-covid19-day-by-day-symptoms-patients-2020-2?op=1&r=US&IR=T

    Wuhan was before anyone knew much at all.


    THere are older versions, such as these
    https://heavy.com/news/2020/04/covid-19-symptoms-day-by-day-chart-of-coronavirus-signs/

    https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/covid-19-symptoms-progress-death-3536264/


    What I have noticed here (U.S.) is that the number of
    "confirmed cases" fell in the second half of January (from
    values previously over 200 thousand per day) to the present
    level that is slightly under 100 thousand per day. Hospitalizations
    are also down, from 125 thousand beds (total) to 80 thousand.

    But the rate of deaths persists at over 3000 per day, from the
    numbers I collect from Johns Hopkins. I figured that true death
    rates could have been increased due to hospital crowding in
    January, but those conditions have eased.

    So, I'm wondering, what is going on. Maybe the lag is a
    little more than I expected? Models?

    You may need to take into account the improved treatments for Covid
    that have been developed (non-vaccine), leading to fewer deaths.

    https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/features/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-covid-19-therapy-trials/20208126.article?firstPass=false

    https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/news/dexamethasone-is-first-drug-to-be-shown-to-improve-survival-in-covid-19/20208074.article

    That last one was way back in June. But these numbers surprised
    me, in both directions. This is for the control group in a
    dexamethasone trial.

    "Among the patients in the control group, mortality after 28 days
    was found to be highest in those who required ventilation (41%),
    intermediate in those patients who required oxygen only (25%), and
    lowest among those who did not require any respiratory intervention
    (13%)."

    I thought that back in June, it was still like 85% on ventilation who
    died. On the other side, I did not know that so many as 13% of
    the non-respiratory cases died. And I don't know what symptoms
    they do represent.


    No doubt there are differences in protocols about when patients should
    be placed on the different types of ventilator.


    But you did ask about modelling. Have you looked at

    https://covidsim.org/

    You can change the country if it doesn't start with your location. It
    seems that this automatically makes use of the most recent data
    available. The various tabs on the top bar lead to details of the
    models, including times of transition between stages of the disease.

    Thanks.

    That modeling is interesting. The default page came up with
    a projection of severe peaks in at the beginning of 2022 and
    again for 2023. Hmm. I don't know what makes that likely.

    One relevant parameter is whether vaccine "prevents disease"
    or "prevents infection." I assume that the former describes
    a non-symptomatic spreader. Is that likely or possible for
    vaccines in general? - for covid-19 in particular?

    The unlikely screen encouraged me to fiddle with a couple of
    the parameters, to try other projections. Having another peak
    in a year (or so) came up again when I did not expect it.

    Next, I will have to click on the tab for "Manuall" to see what
    I ought to be varying.

    --
    Rich Ulrich

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)