the
surveyors extrapolated that to obtain a confidence interval
of approximately (800, 8500) for the number of total deaths.
The reported number, 4645, is the midpoint of the 95% CI.
So - There is an estimate of 4645 deaths, extrapolated from
an observed count of 38 deaths.
What surprises me, a bit, is that the estimate is repeated so
often as if it were a firm number; and no one points to the
error range.
On Mon, 04 Jun 2018 12:14:11 -0400, Rich Ulrich wrote:
the
surveyors extrapolated that to obtain a confidence interval
of approximately (800, 8500) for the number of total deaths.
The reported number, 4645, is the midpoint of the 95% CI.
So - There is an estimate of 4645 deaths, extrapolated from
an observed count of 38 deaths.
What surprises me, a bit, is that the estimate is repeated so
often as if it were a firm number; and no one points to the
error range.
It doesn't surprise me. I always insisted that my students report
intervals, not midpoint Â± error, and for exactly this reason.
(In this case, the midpoint is 4650 not 4645; was that a typo, or a
mistake from another source?)
What we don't know (at least I don't) is whether, in this case, the
interval 800-8000 was given to the media and they computed or
miscomputed the midpoint, or 4650Â±3850 was given to the newspapers,
and they dropped the Â±3850.
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