I have nothing to add regarding the USA election. But this video relating
to polling for last year's UK election might be of some interest (from RSS ... 2015 Cathie Marsh lecture: the failure of polls and the future of
survey research (live stream)): https://youtu.be/6Ikmk_k8d3E
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On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 4:14:27 PM UTC-5, David Jones wrote:
I have nothing to add regarding the USA election. But this video
relating
to polling for last year's UK election might be of some interest (from
RSS
... 2015 Cathie Marsh lecture: the failure of polls and the future of
survey research (live stream)): https://youtu.be/6Ikmk_k8d3E
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Thanks David. Here's another link that omits some of the dead air.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbHbrpUZw-E
Cheers,
Bruce
On Mon, 14 Nov 2016 23:06:34 -0000, Bruce Weaver <bweaver@lakeheadu.ca> >wrote:
On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 4:14:27 PM UTC-5, David Jones wrote:
I have nothing to add regarding the USA election. But this video
relating
to polling for last year's UK election might be of some interest (from
RSS
... 2015 Cathie Marsh lecture: the failure of polls and the future of
survey research (live stream)): https://youtu.be/6Ikmk_k8d3E
--
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Thanks David. Here's another link that omits some of the dead air.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbHbrpUZw-E
Cheers,
Bruce
Yes, I spotted that one just after making my post. There some other videos
of possible relevance to this topic on the RSS channel on YouTube: for >example >https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLi_-RNsPXDTIr8SCKEEMHTV9M2Kmq9ktT .
In addition there are some articles related to the USA election polling on >the website for the "Significance" magazine from RSS and ASA: >https://www.statslife.org.uk/significance .
Omits dead air? It says it is 1:43:30 ...
That's for people who watch more stuff on their computers
than I ever have. I clicked forward a bit and saw mention of
"herding" which is not apt to be short-term characteristic of the
major pollsters in the US.
On Fri, 18 Nov 2016 05:46:14 -0000, Rich Ulrich <rich.ulrich@comcast.net> >wrote:
Omits dead air? It says it is 1:43:30 ...
That's for people who watch more stuff on their computers
than I ever have. I clicked forward a bit and saw mention of
"herding" which is not apt to be short-term characteristic of the
major pollsters in the US.
These slides from the 2015 Cathie Marsh lecture may be easier/quicker to
deal with:
https://www.statslife.org.uk/files/Slides/AnnualLecture2015.pdf
There was also a summary/comment here: >https://www.statslife.org.uk/social-sciences/2573-cathie-marsh-lecture
And there is the full report from the study (Report of the Inquiry into
the 2015
British general election opinion polls): >http://eprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3789/1/Report_final_revised.pdf
But a quick internet search found a lot of other stuff, including things >directly related to the recent USA elections .... for example: >http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/
More:
Last night, MSNBC showed me an excellent commentary
on the predictions being made.
It seems that several sites that make predictions are saying
that Hillary has a 99% chance of winning.
Nate Silver, whose predictions have been excellent in the
last couple of elections, reportedly says only "65%". I think
that they were relaying Silver's warnings:
The problem wtih the predictions arre twofold. First, how
accurate are they? Second, are the errors correlated?
Silver does not think that the state-wide polls are necessarily
very good, this time. (They did not mention it, but I think that
what are considered the /best/ polls are the phone polls, which
only call landlines; and where the response rates now might be
less than 10%. Not ideal. The responses used to be well above
50%, a couple of decades ago.)
If everybody misses predictions by 3 points, but they are
randomly high or low for one candidate, Hillary will win,
because that is the size of her lead in a number of states.
And she leads in enough states for an easy victory.
But if the errors reflect systematic biases, and those biases
are the same in every state, then, if one call is wrong, all
calls may be wrong.
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