• Time between launch attempts

    From Alain Fournier@21:1/5 to All on Tue Apr 18 06:50:33 2023
    Does anyone know why it take two days before SpaceX can make another
    launch attempt after having filled the tanks? Just pumping the fuel out
    of the tank shouldn't be much longer than pumping it in, a few hours
    should do. I don't think it is much surprising that there would be
    something that delays the operations. I just don't know what it is.


    Alain Fournier

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  • From Snidely@21:1/5 to All on Tue Apr 18 13:55:03 2023
    Thus spake Alain Fournier:
    Does anyone know why it take two days before SpaceX can make another launch attempt after having filled the tanks? Just pumping the fuel out of the tank shouldn't be much longer than pumping it in, a few hours should do. I don't think it is much surprising that there would be something that delays the operations. I just don't know what it is.


    Alain Fournier

    Topping off the tank farm is part of the delay. The boiloff and other
    losses during tanking and detanking mean that what they recover is less
    than what they pumped in. And at this point, the tank farm is filled
    by tanker trucks.

    There is probably a lot more inspection going on with these prototypes
    than there would be with production rockets.

    /dps

    --
    "I am not given to exaggeration, and when I say a thing I mean it"
    _Roughing It_, Mark Twain

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  • From Torbjorn Lindgren@21:1/5 to snidely.too@gmail.com on Wed Apr 19 12:01:45 2023
    Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> wrote:
    Thus spake Alain Fournier:
    Does anyone know why it take two days before SpaceX can make
    another launch attempt after having filled the tanks? Just pumping
    the fuel out of the tank shouldn't be much longer than pumping it
    in, a few hours should do. I don't think it is much surprising that
    there would be something that delays the operations. I just don't
    know what it is.

    Topping off the tank farm is part of the delay. The boiloff and other
    losses during tanking and detanking mean that what they recover is less
    than what they pumped in. And at this point, the tank farm is filled
    by tanker trucks.

    Yeah, I expect that for an operational launches they would have a farm
    that has enough extra stored to just absorb it and recycle quickly
    several times - thus moving it out of the critical path for recycling.

    But there's likely relatively little benefits for them to spend that
    money at this stage (and it might not be this farm anyway), just going
    over all the data they collected likely ruled out Tuesday anyway so at
    most it could have saved a day.

    It IS slightly suspicious that the next attempt is now scheduled for
    4-20 given, well, Musk [1], and given that he even hinted that he
    though 420 was "likely" before 17 April was announced.

    But that can just be that he knew fully well that at least one scrub
    was relatively likely, second or third attempt is pretty much standard
    to "new" rockets, and knowing how long it takes to recycle.


    There is probably a lot more inspection going on with these prototypes
    than there would be with production rockets.

    They continued to run it past the scrub to get more data, effectively converting it to a full Wet Dress Rehearsal to get as much information
    out of it as possible.

    So they got LOADS of data from all leading up to the scrub and they
    definitely is going to go through it all before trying to light up the
    candle again.

    1. https://futurism.com/the-byte/elon-musk-coincidence-starship-stack-420

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  • From Alain Fournier@21:1/5 to Torbjorn Lindgren on Wed Apr 19 09:00:19 2023
    On Apr/19/2023 at 08:01, Torbjorn Lindgren wrote :

    It IS slightly suspicious that the next attempt is now scheduled for
    4-20 given, well, Musk [1], and given that he even hinted that he
    though 420 was "likely" before 17 April was announced.

    1. https://futurism.com/the-byte/elon-musk-coincidence-starship-stack-420

    I disagree with you. I don't think that the next attempt schedule is
    slightly suspicious. It is very suspicious. Musk is Musk. :-)


    Alain Fournier

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  • From Otto J. Makela@21:1/5 to Torbjorn Lindgren on Thu Apr 20 10:23:20 2023
    Torbjorn Lindgren <tl@none.invalid> wrote:

    It IS slightly suspicious that the next attempt is now scheduled for
    4-20 given, well, Musk [1], and given that he even hinted that he
    though 420 was "likely" before 17 April was announced.
    ...
    1. https://futurism.com/the-byte/elon-musk-coincidence-starship-stack-420

    And whose birthday is that too?
    --
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  • From Alain Fournier@21:1/5 to Otto J. Makela on Thu Apr 20 08:09:15 2023
    On Apr/20/2023 at 03:23, Otto J. Makela wrote :
    Torbjorn Lindgren <tl@none.invalid> wrote:

    It IS slightly suspicious that the next attempt is now scheduled for
    4-20 given, well, Musk [1], and given that he even hinted that he
    though 420 was "likely" before 17 April was announced.
    ...
    1. https://futurism.com/the-byte/elon-musk-coincidence-starship-stack-420

    And whose birthday is that too?

    My brother. But I suspect you had someone else in mind. I don't know who
    it is.


    Alain Fournier

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  • From Otto J. Makela@21:1/5 to Alain Fournier on Fri Apr 21 01:20:24 2023
    Alain Fournier <alain245@videotron.ca> wrote:

    On Apr/20/2023 at 03:23, Otto J. Makela wrote :
    Torbjorn Lindgren <tl@none.invalid> wrote:

    It IS slightly suspicious that the next attempt is now scheduled for
    4-20 given, well, Musk [1], and given that he even hinted that he
    though 420 was "likely" before 17 April was announced.
    ...
    1. https://futurism.com/the-byte/elon-musk-coincidence-starship-stack-420 >> And whose birthday is that too?

    My brother. But I suspect you had someone else in mind. I don't know
    who it is.

    Unfortunately also Adolf's. Has been used as a dog whistle.
    --
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  • From JF Mezei@21:1/5 to Alain Fournier on Fri Apr 21 14:50:07 2023
    On 2023-04-18 06:50, Alain Fournier wrote:
    Does anyone know why it take two days before SpaceX can make another
    launch attempt after having filled the tanks?



    Considering Melon expect to be able to launch every 20 minutes (or
    whatever unrealistic number) One would think /iterative development"
    would see redevelopment of the launch complex.

    The good news is that 25+ Raptor engines have become great assets for
    the Boring company to start digging tunnels.

    I remember being told that a flame treench wasn't necessary. Considering
    the force at which concrete was thrwon to large distances, I have to
    wonder if the FAA has any jurisdiction on "stage 0".

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  • From Snidely@21:1/5 to All on Fri Apr 21 17:22:20 2023
    on 4/21/2023, JF Mezei supposed :
    On 2023-04-18 06:50, Alain Fournier wrote:
    Does anyone know why it take two days before SpaceX can make another
    launch attempt after having filled the tanks?



    Considering Melon expect to be able to launch every 20 minutes (or
    whatever unrealistic number) One would think /iterative development"
    would see redevelopment of the launch complex.

    The good news is that 25+ Raptor engines have become great assets for
    the Boring company to start digging tunnels.

    I remember being told that a flame treench wasn't necessary. Considering
    the force at which concrete was thrwon to large distances, I have to
    wonder if the FAA has any jurisdiction on "stage 0".

    They do. They will take yesterday's results in consideration when
    considering the launch license for the next orbital attempt.

    Note also that SpaceX had already decided to install a water deluge
    system (which would have reduced the energy reaching the concrete) and
    was working on a flame diverter. They may find that not delaying 4&20
    to allow one or both to be completed has caused longer and serious
    delays for 9&26. If it's possible to repair the existing launch site, assessments will probably take at least a month before that work can
    begin. If they have to scrap it and use the second tower site, that
    will take at least a year (based on the faster progress seen at KSC).

    Also note that a flame trench may not have been as easy as a diverter structure, due to the water table issue. The crater from Thursday is
    already getting wet. KSC's 39A was already built up into a small hill
    before SpaceX leased it.

    We don't know yet if the concrete shrapnel is the cause of the first
    engine outs, but there's certainly speculation about that.

    /dps

    --
    Yes, I have had a cucumber soda. Why do you ask?

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  • From JF Mezei@21:1/5 to Snidely on Sat Apr 22 10:45:37 2023
    On 2023-04-21 20:22, Snidely wrote:

    Note also that SpaceX had already decided to install a water deluge
    system (which would have reduced the energy reaching the concrete) and
    was working on a flame diverter.

    I had always thought that water deluge wa to control noise. Would't the addition of water->steam to rocket exhaust add to the mass hitting the concrete? Or does throwing water at speed=0 into the mix result in the
    exhaust slowing down as it accelerates the water? Does the boiling of
    water end up cooling exhaust substantially? Or not enough to matter?

    Is there any information on how well the inside of the OLM ring faired?
    the anchoring mechanism and all other gizmos on the inside of ring?

    The umbilical case on top of OLM was not pulverized so this is good.
    But did the stuff inside survive?

    From point of view of reusability, my concern is that the sheer power of
    the rocket at launch might not make it possible to have undamaged OLM
    after every launch.

    And since lots was damaged around the OLM (in particular punctured tanks
    at tank farm), the design of the launch site may have flaws if there is
    no "path" for a flae trench to send exhaust to.

    Also note that a flame trench may not have been as easy as a diverter structure, due to the water table issue.

    Apparently, the OLM is already fairly high off the ground, but the beams
    that support it all around make it difficult to make an above ground
    flame diverter/trench. I am not all that concerned about a below ground
    flame trench that is filled with water. Wouldn't the exhaust very
    quickly push that water out to sea with said water providing some
    protection to the flame trench floor?


    We don't know yet if the concrete shrapnel is the cause of the first
    engine outs, but there's certainly speculation about that.

    Am more concerned about engine shutdowns well after launch. The engine
    tests we've seen in last 2 years have actually been engine start tests,
    not engine runs, except for 1 engine and 6 engine tests where engine ran
    for a number of seconds after spin-up And the 6 engine test causing much concrete damage).

    Melon Husk claims that he welcomes dissenting opinions and when backed
    with fact is willing to change his mind. I a quite curious on whether
    staff at SpaceX are affraid to speak up against his "aspirations" to
    provide reality check so Husk's aspirational goal of simple OLM without
    flame trench was never challenged, whether there were challenges but
    Husm overturned them, or whether the engineers really thought the pad
    would survive.


    (I use Melon Husk because last december, my twitter account was
    suspended because they found a post I had made in June 2022 quoting a
    public SEC letter send to him and I was forced to delete it to
    re-instate account, so now, I no longer mention his name so their
    algorithms won't find what I say about him). (and deleted all tweets I
    made about hium back to 2017).

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  • From Snidely@21:1/5 to All on Sat Apr 22 15:46:11 2023
    On Saturday, JF Mezei yelped out that:

    And since lots was damaged around the OLM (in particular punctured tanks
    at tank farm), the design of the launch site may have flaws if there is
    no "path" for a flae trench to send exhaust to.

    I have seen no evidence of punctured tanks. There are two tanks in the
    tank farm where the outer shells have been dented; AIUI these are water
    tanks. Perhaps you have more information, though.

    /dps

    --
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    "He does very well in a suck-up, kick-down culture."
    Bill in Vancouver

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  • From Snidely@21:1/5 to All on Sat Apr 22 15:42:33 2023
    JF Mezei was thinking very hard :

    Skipping a bit:

    Am more concerned about engine shutdowns well after launch. The engine
    tests we've seen in last 2 years have actually been engine start tests,
    not engine runs, except for 1 engine and 6 engine tests where engine ran
    for a number of seconds after spin-up And the 6 engine test causing much concrete damage).

    The primary engine testing, like that of Merlins, happens at a Texas
    site up nearer the horn of Texas. Engine runs of a couple minutes
    happen there. Of course, that location tests engines one at a time, so
    the vibration environment is different.

    /dps

    --
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    they were both nearly dead if not quite really most sincerely dead. --
    Mike Salfino, fivethirtyeight.com

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  • From Snidely@21:1/5 to All on Sat Apr 22 17:59:06 2023
    On Saturday or thereabouts, JF Mezei declared ...

    Apparently, the OLM is already fairly high off the ground, but the beams
    that support it all around make it difficult to make an above ground
    flame diverter/trench. I am not all that concerned about a below ground flame trench that is filled with water. Wouldn't the exhaust very
    quickly push that water out to sea with said water providing some
    protection to the flame trench floor?

    I'm sure you can provide us with a model that shows the expected
    results. Just a bit finite element code.

    /dps "or ask a civil engineer"

    --
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  • From Alain Fournier@21:1/5 to Snidely on Sun Apr 23 08:00:54 2023
    On Apr/22/2023 at 20:59, Snidely wrote :
    On Saturday or thereabouts, JF Mezei declared ...

    Apparently, the OLM is already fairly high off the ground, but the beams
    that support it all around make it difficult to make an above ground
    flame diverter/trench.  I am not all that concerned about a below ground
    flame trench that is filled with water. Wouldn't the exhaust very
    quickly push that water out to sea with said water providing some
    protection to the flame trench floor?

    I'm sure you can provide us with a model that shows the expected
    results.  Just a bit finite element code.

    /dps "or ask a civil engineer"

    In a case Mr Mezei didn't understand what Mr Snidely was saying:

    The exhaust from the rocket is a complex super-sonic flow. There will be
    a bounce back of the shock-wave towards the rocket. The shape and timing
    of such a bounce back is not a simple thing and can have some
    counter-intuitive effects. A flame trench is not just a simple thing
    that you ask a guy with a shovel to dig according to some sketch on a
    napkin. You need to optimise the shape (that is where the finite element
    code comes in).


    Alain Fournier

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