• an AI looks at Nessie sightings (2/2)

    From MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com@21:1/5 to All on Sat Apr 3 18:58:12 2021
    But after all the crunching the top 20 data series and their relative
    "merit" at matching up against the dates of Nessie sightings are as

    Base dataset Transf Match (R2)

    stormseg-120 3o1-y 0.78422296
    gavqseg60 1o1 0.71447515
    gavstormseg-20 3o1 0.70168507
    stormseg-110 3o1-y 0.68063888
    gavstormseg-40 1o1 0.63671095
    gavn2o_ush 12o1-y 0.62167657
    gavn2o_psa 12o1-y 0.60895466
    gavstorms50 1o1 0.60589255
    gavneptune-latecl 1o1-y 0.60139269
    gavqseg-180 3o1-y 0.59804974
    gavqtonga 3o1-y 0.59804974
    gavstorms10 3o1-y 0.58819758
    gavn2o_sum 3o1-y 0.58133033
    gavsaturn-r 12o1-y 0.57833951
    gavstormseg-70 0o1 0.56335865
    gavstorms20 3o1-y 0.55574765
    presband40 12o1-y 0.55388579
    gavuranus-latecl 12o1-y 0.55213935
    gavco2 12o1-y 0.55156689
    gavch4 3o1-y 0.54481516

    Each "Base dataset" explains the majority of Nessie sightings. (There
    are 100s more in the list that have a "merit" of more than .5). Each
    stat test is carried out to 99% certainty. If 2 statistical tests
    don't pass at 90% each then that dataset is ignored. To try to make the
    match as good as possible 100s of transformation of the base dataset
    are tried and the largest merit from the lot selected.

    Those base datasets that match the target form a kind of "fingerprint"
    that the s/w can re-run as a matching problem to try to characterise
    in one or 2 words in comparison with all the other work it's done in
    the past couple years. I withhold that characterization at present
    because I know you (and you know who you are) are not ready. :)

    If we can through the list we see a lot of mention of "storms". A lot
    of the datasets track ocean storms in particular bands of latitude or
    segments of longitude over the past 150y. So we see the "best match"
    is something that represents the monthly number of storm days in
    segment along longitude 120-110W. Given ocean storms mostly don't occur
    in the Arctic Ocean, we're talking about a chunk of ocean from approx
    the US NW down to Antarctic, passing close to Easter Island. The
    "Transf" column tells me changes in storm activity down this strip 3
    months later are associated with similar changes in Nessie
    sightings. About 78% of Nessie sightings are "explained" by this ocean
    storm activity.

    It might be hard to imagine exactly how ocean storms 1/2 a world away
    can affect what tourists in Scottyland see in some lake. Obviously
    there are a "very large number" of causal chains involved. The s/w
    does try to go down a "very large number" of these and try to
    characterize the association. I'll withhold that as well. But suffice
    to say some of the effects of the storms in questions affect the
    tourists, and an equal number affect whatever they are seeing in the
    lake -- whether logs, prehistoric otters, giant eels, or whatever.

    More interesting from my viewpoint is the 2nd nice link with
    atmospheric N2O -- laughing gas. Somehow atm N2O measured at those 2
    sites listed above, after a delay of 12 months, predicts about 60% of
    Nessie sightings. We might imagine again N2O might be affecting the
    observers, but also it might be affecting whatever they are seeing in
    the lake. One tidbit the s/w does suggest from previous work is
    related to the changes in N2O. They levels are growing related to
    increased industrial use of nitrate fertilisers and other chemicals,
    but the "natural" variation can be traced to the annual and complex
    cycle of oceanic phytoplankton. The s/w suggests "food source" as the
    simple characterization of these N2O links and Nessie sightings.

    Down at the bottom of the list are other atm gases -- CO2 and CH4.
    Growing levels of these are associated with increasing global warming.
    And again the s/w splits this between effects on observers and the
    observed. Tourists may be responsible for Nessie sightings and they
    tend to come in larger numbers in summer and warmer weather. I.e. more
    warm == more sightings. But also there is a hint that more warm water
    == more things to observe.

    The next set of numbers that look interesting are the "q" data. These
    are downloaded day by day earthquake data. At this point they are
    mostly filtered by magnitude. The database accepts only events >= mag
    4. I have a disk limit of 1 TB after all for this stuff! The "q" nr
    the top of the list is for longitude segment 60-70E. This is a band
    that runs from E Antarctica through the Indian Ocean up to the N Pole
    via central Russia.

    Again, it's hard to see immediately why more earthquakes along THAT
    particular band are associated with 70% of Nessie sightings. The s/w
    has some theories. But again I'll withhold those.

    Looking down the list we see some other earthquake areas of
    interest. Tonga. Down the central Pacific. Why these and not
    others... well... more redaction.

    And, finally, the truly startling associations. The positions of some
    of the outer planets. The topmost in our list is the "latitude" of
    Neptune delayed by 1 m. Somehow just from that you can predict about
    60% of Nessie sightings. Why Nessie or tourists should be sensitive
    to the position of a planet that is otherwise almost impossible to
    see... I leave to the gentle reader.

    Saturn and Uranus are also mentioned at the 55% and 60% levels. Given
    the positions of the outer planets are "almost" independent we know we
    can construct a predictive model from the positions of just these
    planets that can predict the majority of Nessie sightings maybe 12m in
    advance. Why that should be...

    The s/w has an ephemeris program. It also tried all orbital parameters
    of the other planets. Only the ones listed measured up. The s/w
    presently doesn't handle the position of all the dozens of moons --
    even our own. Maybe one day it will. :)

    So we have an interesting assortment of associations. It seems storms
    and quakes in key regions predict Nessie sightings months and maybe a
    year in advance. Levels of atm gases -- some associated with oceanic
    life cycles, some with land life cycles -- also predict a good chunk.
    And planetary positions specifically of the outer "gas giants" also
    are apparently highly predictive of Nessie sightings.

    Now maybe you can see why I'd like to be able to go through all the
    possible theories (upto a given level of complexity ;), give them all
    a score, and be able to cite "according to a dispassionate evaluation
    of all available data the most likely theory is X".

    It would be handy.

    It would also be handy to have the s/w working well enough to do that
    before July this year. Something in my calendar says. I forget why.

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