New Afghanistan Worry Same as Old Afghanistan Worry
By Gerald F. Seib, 8/30/21, Wall St. Journal

As last week drew to a close, a senior State Dept official
was asked whether Afghanistan’s new rulers have the willing-
ness & the capability to stop more terror strikes by the
Islamic State radicals who had just killed 13 Americans at
the Kabul airport. The official replied: “The intent is
there. I think the capacity is in question.”

In other words, it’s likely that the Taliban rulers now in
charge in Afghan actually do want to stop Islamic State
fighters—who are, in fact, their sworn enemies—as well as
other Islamic extremists from plying their lethal trade on
Afghan soil. But the Taliban’s ability to make good on
promises to do so is very much in question.

And that underscores the biggest irony of America’s with-
drawal from Afghanistan. The hope in exiting the country is
that Americans could finally forget about Afghanistan. The
reality is that they now have to worry about it all over again.

Though the soldiers & Marines who served & sacrificed there
never had the luxury to stop thinking about Afghanistan,
the truth is that most Americans had done so. Over the
course of a 20-year commitment there, it had become a long-
ago, faraway problem that reared its head only occasionally,
when something really bad happened on the ground. Afghanistan
no longer served as a potential staging ground for attacks
on the U.S.

Now, the military mission is over but the worry is back,
& perhaps for a long time to come.

There is, of course, the possibility of a good-news outcome
in Afghanistan. It goes something like this:
In two decades out of power, the Taliban have become wiser.
They lost control of Afghanistan after 9/11 because they
allowed al Qaeda extremists to turn their country into a lab
for terrorism, so they won’t want to repeat that experience.
“It’s self-evident on the basis of history that Taliban
might conclude harboring terrorist groups....is not a recipe
for their longevity,” says the senior State Dept official.

Internally, the more extreme factions within the Taliban
held sway the last time the group ruled, brutally repressing
the Afghan people & losing popular support along the way.
That, too, won’t be repeated this time.

Perhaps Taliban talks now under way with leaders of the
former, American-supported govt will produce some kind of
coalition govt that includes non-Taliban Afghans & tribal
leaders, strengthening the central govt & helping keep the
worst elements at bay.

Finally, the new govt’s desperate need for int'l aid to
prevent economic collapse will force Taliban leaders to
behave responsibly & make good on their promises to the U.S.
& the rest of the world to keep terrorists in check & respect
at least some basic human rights for women in their country.

So, that’s the optimistic scenario. There is, of course, a
far more pessimistic one—& the recent history of Afghanistan
may require betting on pessimism over optimism.

In this darker scenario, the Taliban faces an irreparable
& ultimately fatal schism between pragmatists & Islamic
extremists. The extremists within are ideologues who want
harsh Islamic rule on the inside & are happy to have the
scorn of the West on the outside. The more the Taliban
takes steps to foster int'l goodwill thru responsible
behavior, the less these extremists will trust it.

Taliban fighters unhappy with moderation at the top have
places to go. Standing in opposition is the Afghan arm of
Islamic State, known as ISIS-K, which was responsible for
last week’s horrific bomb blast at Kabul’s airport. Unlike
the Taliban, Islamic State isn’t interested merely in
imposing Islamic law on Afghanistan; it wants to incorporate
parts of Afghanistan into a broader Middle East caliphate,
directly threatening America’s friends & allies in the region.

Meanwhile, al Qaeda, which produced the 9/11 attacks from
Afghanistan, hasn’t gone away either, despite Biden’s
declaration to the contrary this month. An Afghan study
group established by Congress in late 2019 reported that
“Al-Qaeda has never given up on Afghanistan.” In fact,
al Qaeda has been allied with the Taliban in its efforts
to push out the U.S. Now, it likely expects its Taliban
friends to give it some room to roam.

All that could add up to a nightmare scenario: instability
& perhaps even civil war within Afghanistan when Taliban
leaders prove unable to keep a lid on the extremists, & a
resurgence of a terror threat amid the chaos.

In its final report early this year, the Afghan study
group wrote that the experts it heard from warned that a
precipitous withdrawal of American troops “could lead to
a reconstitution of the terrorist threat to the U.S.
homeland within 18 months to 3 years.” So yes, it’s
time to worry again.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-afghanistan-worry-same-as-old-afghanistan-worry-11630333540

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