https://archive.ph/ZQgqX
Fear we go again! UK health officials including 'Professor Lockdown'
begin Covid-style 'worst-case scenario' planning for if bird flu becomes >transmissible in humans - as girl, 11, dies and TWELVE more people are
feared infected in Cambodia
Scientists are modelling how an outbreak of avian flu could sweep the UK
Only one infection has been spotted in a Brit since outbreak began in 2021
By EMILY CRAIG SENIOR HEALTH REPORTER FOR MAILONLINE
UPDATED: 20:32 EST, 23 February 2023
41
shares
747
View comments
A dozen people in Cambodia are suspected of being infected with the H5N1
bird flu strain in the same province where an 11-year-old girl died on >Wednesday - raising fears the virus may be spreading from human to human
for the first time in decades.
Scientists are modelling how a worst-case scenario bird flu outbreak
could sweep the UK if the virus spread to humans.
The Khmer Times – a local newspaper – reported that the suspected
patients have all been tested for the virus and are waiting on lab >confirmation, four of whom are symptomatic.
Officials at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said they are
developing 'scenarios of early human transmission' to help with
preparedness, planning and improvements to surveillance.
While only one infection has been spotted in Britain since the record
bird flu outbreak began in October 2021, officials begin modelling
outbreaks in people when it deems the risk level is three out of five –
which it is currently.
This picture released by Cambodia's Communicable Disease Control
Department (CDCD) on February 23, 2023, shows villagers posing with
posters about H5N1 virus threats, in Prey Veng province - where a girl
died from the virus this week and 12 more are suspected to have been
infected
+16
View gallery
This picture released by Cambodia's Communicable Disease Control
Department (CDCD) on February 23, 2023, shows villagers posing with
posters about H5N1 virus threats, in Prey Veng province - where a girl
died from the virus this week and 12 more are suspected to have been
infected
Among those working on the models is Professor Neil Ferguson (pictured),
an epidemiologist whose modelling of the Covid outbreak led the UK
Government to impose the first lockdown
+16
View gallery
Among those working on the models is Professor Neil Ferguson
(pictured), an epidemiologist whose modelling of the Covid outbreak led
the UK Government to impose the first lockdown
TRENDING
Bird flu outbreak: Cambodia girl dies, 12 others potentially infected
26k viewing now
Are THESE what spooked health chiefs into a safety review of Sudafed?
10.7k viewing now
How to differentiate between Covid and norovirus symptoms
8.7k viewing now
Dr Arturo Casadevall, an immunologist at Johns Hopkins, reacted to the >suspected outbreak in Cambodia. He wrote on Twitter: 'Key information is >whether the 12 infected people obtained it from a bird source or from >human-to-human transmission, which would be very worrisome.'
Dr Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist and Chief of COVID Task Force at
the New England Complex Systems Institute, tweeted: 'Hope this wasn’t
human to human, but I’m now getting to be worried,'
H5N1 was first detected in chickens in Scotland in 1959, and again in
China and Hong Kong in 1996. It first was detected in humans in 1997. >Human-to-human transmission of H5N1 is incredibly rare, but not
impossible. In 1997, officials confirmed 18 H5N1 cases in Hong Kong,
some of which were acquired through human-to-human transmission. The
outbreak stayed relatively small, though. And did not spiral into a
massive issue at either the local or global level.
This recent outbreak has caused particular concern. More than 15million >domesticated birds, and countless wild animals, have been struck down by
the virus.
There is nothing to be done that can prevent the spread among wild
birds, but officials are working to keep domesticated populations away
from them. In the UK, all farmed chickens are now required to stay indoors. >Among those working on the models is Professor Neil Ferguson, an >epidemiologist whose modelling of the Covid outbreak led the UK
Government to impose the first lockdown.
+16
View gallery
The above map shows locations where there is a growing risk of a
zoonotic virus outbreak. Dr Jennifer Nuzzo, a public health expert at
Brown University in Rhode Island, warned that Texas was also a potential >epicenter
Pictured: A National Trust ranger clears deceased birds from Staple
Island in July 2022
+16
View gallery
Pictured: A National Trust ranger clears deceased birds from Staple
Island in July 2022
The UKHSA graph shows the number of bird flu cases, by region in
England, confirmed among kept and wild birds between October 2022 and >February 2023
+16
View gallery
The UKHSA graph shows the number of bird flu cases, by region in
England, confirmed among kept and wild birds between October 2022 and >February 2023
+16
View gallery
A young girl in Cambodia has died from the H5N1 bird flu. She was
infected with the virus last week. She is the nation's first case since
2014 (file photo)
Bird flu cases detected in poultry facilities, by county, in 2022 and 2023 >Bird flu cases detected in wild birds, by county, in 2022 and 2023
The above map shows bird flu cases detected in poultry facilities (left)
and in wild birds (right) in 2022 and 2023. The WHO has warned the world
to prepare for a potential bird flu pandemic saying the virus could jump
to humans
Before the cases in Cambodia, only one case of H5N1 in humans had been >detected this year. Cases in humans have been rare in recent years
+16
View gallery
Before the cases in Cambodia, only one case of H5N1 in humans had been >detected this year. Cases in humans have been rare in recent years
MORE TRENDING
NYC billionaire financier found dead of a self-inflicted gunshot wound
12.4k viewing now
Video shows Madi Brooks slurring and saying 'I'll book an Uber'
5.7k viewing now
Joy Behar claims Ohio toxic train town had it coming for voting Trump
3.5k viewing now
In an update today, the UKHSA confirmed that its Avian Influenza
Technical Group – which includes Professor Ferguson and around two dozen >other experts – calculated how an outbreak could sweep the UK.
Under a 'mild scenario', the scientists estimated that one in 400 people
who caught bird flu would die due to the virus.
This infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.25 per cent is similar to
Covid's in mid-2021 and the 2009 bird flu outbreak.
But under a 'more severe scenario', the virus would be fatal among one
in 40 people who became infected (an IFR of 2.5 per cent).
However, the World Health Organization warns that of the 868 human H5N1
cases reported to it over the last two decades, 456 - just over half -
have been fatal.
Bird flu outbreak: Everything you need to know
What is it?
Avian flu is an infectious type of influenza that spreads among birds.
In rare cases, it can be transmitted to humans through close contact
with a dead or alive infected bird.
This includes touching infected birds, their droppings or bedding.
People can also catch bird flu if they kill or prepare infected poultry
for eating.
Wild birds are carriers, especially through migration.
As they cluster together to breed, the virus spreads rapidly and is then >carried to other parts of the globe.
New strains tend to appear first in Asia, from where more than 60
species of shore birds, waders and waterfowl head off to Alaska to breed
and mix with migratory birds from the US. Others go west and infect
European species.
What strain is currently spreading?
H5N1.
So far the new virus has been detected in some 80million birds and
poultry globally since September 2021 — double the previous record the
year before.
Not only is the virus spreading at speed, it is also killing at an >unprecedented level, leading some experts to say this is the deadliest >variant so far.
Millions of chickens and turkeys in the UK have been culled or put into >lockdown, affecting the availability of Christmas turkey and free-range
eggs.
Can it infect people?
Yes, but only 860 human cases have been reported to the World Health >Organization since 2003.
The risk to people has been deemed 'low'.
But people are strongly urged not to touch sick or dead birds because
the virus is lethal, killing 56 per cent of people it does manage to infect. >ADVERTISEMENT
The Avian Influenza Technical Group noted that while other H5N1
outbreaks have had 'much higher fatality estimates', these did not
involve sustained human-to-human transmission, so are not 'directly >comparable'.
Unlike the Covid pandemic, the scientists said that a bird flu outbreak
could be more deadly among the young, rather than the elderly – as was
seen in the 1918 flu pandemic.
Professor Ferguson has admitted he became 'something of a marmite
figure' and that he 'made mistakes' and 'oversimplified things' during
the pandemic.
Modelling from the epidemiologist and his colleagues at Imperial College >London in March 2020 predicted the NHS would be overwhelmed within weeks
and a terrible death toll would arise if nothing was done to stop the
spread of the disease.
Professor Ferguson has said while it had been challenging for most
Western governments to act in a timely manner, the science throughout
the crisis 'had basically been right'.
In light of the modelling, the UKHSA said it would continue to
investigate how it could detect cases if there was an outbreak among people. >This could see Covid-style lateral flow tests rolled out to test Brits
for bird flu, it said.
The UKHSA said it is investigating whether the swabs, which provided
results in as little as 15 minutes during the Covid pandemic, would
detect the circulating deadly H5N1 strain.
It is also probing whether a blood test could be developed that detects >antibodies against the virus.
Genetic mutations in positive samples are also being monitored for any
signal that the virus is mutating to become a bigger risk to people.
It will 'remain vigilant' over whether the 'constantly' evolving virus,
which kills over half of those it infects, has gained mutations that may >better allow it spread among people.
The UKHSA also noted that the 'very high levels' of transmission in wild >birds presents a 'constant risk'.
The agency noted that there is 'no evidence so far that the virus is
getting better at infecting humans or other mammals' and data suggests
H5N1 'does not pass easily to people'.
But it warned there is an 'increased chance' of people coming into
contact with the virus due to the sky-high rates among birds.
It urged Brits to avoid contact with sick or dead wild birds in parks
and waterways and wash their hands after feeding wild birds, to reduce
the risk of exposure to bird flu.
Dr Meera Chand, incident director for avian influenza at the UKHSA,
said: 'The latest evidence suggests that the avian influenza viruses
we're seeing circulating in birds do not currently spread easily to people. >'However, viruses constantly evolve, and we remain vigilant for any
evidence of changing risk to the population, as well as working with
partners to address gaps in the scientific evidence.'
The weekly update also revealed that 2,310 Brits have been monitored by
UKHSA officials between October 1 2022 and February 14 after being
exposed to bird flu.
Imperial College London published a paper in March 2020 on the potential >impact of coronavirus. It weighed up options on how a lockdown could
reduce demand on hospitals
+16
View gallery
Imperial College London published a paper in March 2020 on the potential >impact of coronavirus. It weighed up options on how a lockdown could
reduce demand on hospitals
The UKHSA graph shows the number of cases of the H5N1 bird flu strain >detected among mammals, such as foxes and otters, between October 2021
and January 2023 in England (light blue), Scotland (dark blue) and Wales >(green)
+16
View gallery
The UKHSA graph shows the number of cases of the H5N1 bird flu strain >detected among mammals, such as foxes and otters, between October 2021
and January 2023 in England (light blue), Scotland (dark blue) and Wales >(green)
The graph, from the UKHSA, displays cases of H5N1 among mammals
worldwide between January 2020 and February 2023
+16
View gallery
The graph, from the UKHSA, displays cases of H5N1 among mammals
worldwide between January 2020 and February 2023
The UKHSA graphic shows the number of people exposed to bird flu between >October 2022 and February 2023, by region in England
+16
View gallery
The UKHSA graphic shows the number of people exposed to bird flu between >October 2022 and February 2023, by region in England
But samples taken from those who developed any cold or flu-like symptoms
in the three weeks after coming into contact with the virus revealed
none had become infected.
The UK's avian flu outbreak began in October 2021, after health chiefs >spotted the virus was still spreading among birds after the spring and
summer months – when they usually decline.
Health chiefs have warned that the winter migration of wild birds is
likely to further hike avian flu transmission in the coming months. This
is because migrating birds can infect local kept and wild birds, driving
up cases.
As well as record cases in birds, the virus has also been spotted in
other animals, such as foxes, otters and seals in the UK, mink in Spain
and sea lions in Peru.
This sparked concern that the virus may be spreading between the
mammals, which would indicate it had picked up a troublesome mutation
that could, in theory, make it easier for humans to become infected.
+16
View gallery
Nearly 300 confirmed cases of H5N1 have been detected among birds in
England since the current outbreak began in October 2021. However, the
true toll is thought to be much higher. The map shows the areas where
cases have been detected and where 3km (blue dots) and 10km (yellow
dots) protection zones have been imposed — meaning enhanced infection
control measures are in place among those who have birds
Pictured: A dead bird in Queens Park in Heywood, Rochdale, amid the
bird flu outbreak
+16
View gallery
Pictured: A dead bird in Queens Park in Heywood, Rochdale, amid the
bird flu outbreak
Alan Gosling (pictured), a retired engineer in Devon, caught the virus
after his ducks, some of which lived inside his home, became infected.
No one else caught the virus
+16
View gallery
Alan Gosling (pictured), a retired engineer in Devon, caught the virus
after his ducks, some of which lived inside his home, became infected.
No one else caught the virus
Further testing is still required to determine if mammals are
transmitting the virus, however.
But there has only been one case of a British person becoming infected
since the current outbreak began.
Alan Gosling, a retired engineer in Devon, caught the virus in early
2022 after his ducks, some of which lived inside his home, became infected. >Cambodian Health Minister Mam Bunheng warned that bird flu poses an >exceptionally high risk to children who may be feeding or collecting
eggs from domesticated poultry, playing with the birds or cleaning their >cages.
The virus can spread to humans when a person has an open wound exposed
to an infected bird. Usually, infections occur when a person is pecked
or clawed by a bird. Transmission can also occur from a dead bird to a
human.
America is still 'fundamentally unprepared' for zoonotic diseases
Harvard and NYU experts have described it as the greatest threat to
humankind and warn much of the world in unprepared
ADVERTISEMENT
World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom
Ghebreyesus said the agency still deems the risk of bird flu to humans
as low. 'But we cannot assume that will remain the case, and we must
prepare for any change in the status quo,' he said earlier this month.
He advised people not to touch dead or sick wild animals and for
countries to strengthen their surveillance of settings where people and >animals interact.
Cambodia had 56 human cases of H5N1 from 2003 through 2014, and 37 of
them were fatal, according to the World Health Organization.
Each person had samples were taken for analysis for a lab in Phnom Penh,
the nation's capital, around 40 miles west of the rural province of Prey >Veng, where the suspected cases were detected.
It is unclear whether this group of people had any interaction with the >11-year-old girl, or if they come from the same part of the province. It
is also unclear whether they had interactions with any birds that could
be carrying the virus.
More than 1.1million people live in Prey Veng, it is the third most
populous province in the country, and known to be densely populated.
Prey Veng is also were the girl who eventually died lived. She became
ill on February 16 and was sent to be treated at a hospital in the capital >She was diagnosed last Wednesday after suffering a fever up to 39C
(102F) with coughing and throat pain. She died shortly after her
diagnosis, the Health Ministry said in a statement Wednesday night.
There are no treatments designed specifically for humans infected with
bird flu, let alone H5N1. Those who fall ill are treated with regular >antiviral drugs such as Zanamivir and Peramivir.
In case of an outbreak, the US does have a stockpile of vaccines
designed to prevent infection from H5N1.
It is sold under the name Audenz and was approved in 2021 by the Food
and Drug Administration for people six months and older. It is a
two-dose vaccine.
Health officials have taken samples from a dead wild bird at a
conservation area near the Prey Veng girl's home, the ministry said in >another statement Thursday. It said teams in the area would also warn >residents about touching dead and sick birds.
Experts warn that the virus is adapting in ways that allow it to cause >outbreaks in other mammals - increasing the risk it could spread among >people.
In October, an outbreak of the bird flu ravaged a population of 52,000
mink at a farm in Spain.
Some of the critters were initially infected by eating meat from birds
that died while infected.
There were also signs of mink-to-mink spread of the flu, which is
unusual for a mammal population and signals a change to the virus.
In Peru, 716 sea lions were found to have died from the bird flu in
recent weeks. Local officials worry that the virus has also spread
between the animals - which are also mammals.
The world is suffering what has been described as the worst bird flu
outbreak ever recorded, with over 58million birds in the US alone having
been culled or killed by the virus over the past year.
Unlike usual spikes in bird flu that last months, this outbreak
sustained itself through the summer of 2022 and is spread almost
entirely by wild birds
+16
View gallery
Unlike usual spikes in bird flu that last months, this outbreak
sustained itself through the summer of 2022 and is spread almost
entirely by wild birds
For the US poultry industry the battle has been deadliest in history.
The outbreak has ramped up pressure on the industry to protect its
flocks and forced them to kill millions of birds to avoid the deadly spread. >To protect their domesticated birds, farmers around the country have >installed extra protections from wild flocks, including installing
vibrating mechanisms in containers holding chicken feed to avoid worker >contamination.
The disease is so contagious that wind can carry bird droppings to a
barn vent causing the virus to circulate inside.
It can also be spread to commercial flocks by workers stepping on
wild-bird feces outside of a barn and spreading it inside with each step. >Some farms have installed motion-detecting alarms, known as 'sound
cannons', as well as bright laser systems to shoo away wild birds
without harming them.
The recent spread of the virus has lead to rampant inflation of both
chicken and egg prices in the US and across the world.
Federal officials also fear that the spring migration of birds could
also reignite spread of the deadly virus.
A Cambodian man carries dead chickens at a market in Phnom Penh - the
capital and most populous city of Cambodia
+16
View gallery
A Cambodian man carries dead chickens at a market in Phnom Penh - the
capital and most populous city of Cambodia
It comes as experts express greater fears of the threat of zoonotic
diseases spreading in America. Last week, experts at Harvard University,
in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and New York University, warned about the
risks of zoonotic transmission.
In an editorial, they accuse the US of being too obsessed with external >threats such as bioterrorism and lab leaks while failing to keep a close
eye on the risks in its own backyard.
They called for an overhaul of regulatory agencies, including the US >Department of Agriculture.
Experts have already warned that the next zoonotic outbreak could occur
in China — because of its wet food markets — and Rwanda and Brazil —
where urbanization and expanding agriculture are bringing people into
contact with wild animals they would previously have been separated from.
But they also warn that Texas — one of the world's leading producers of
meat — could also be a hotbed for new dangerous viruses.
In the piece, they urged: 'What is needed is not simply for agencies to
do their jobs better or to paper over the gaps, but a fundamental >restructuring of the way that human-animal interfaces are governed.
'A One Health approach, which NBS-22 claims as its guiding principle,
would take the health of other living things not merely as the
occasional means or obstacles to human health, but as continuous with it. >'The first step in implementing such an approach would be to create a >high-level process for integrating the broken mosaic of multiple
agencies, with their unclear and sometimes competing mandates, into an >effective, comprehensive regime.'
Figures show 10billion animals were killed for meat in the US in 2022,
the highest number on record and up 204million in 2021.
The country is also a leading importer of live animals — which could
harbor diseases — bringing in about 200million annually according to >estimates.
There is also a large wild game market which raises about 40million
animals annually.
Scientists warned that infections could jump from animals to humans at
any stage in the meat supply chain — from the rearing facility right
through to slaughter and where it is consumed.
They warn there is a higher risk with live imported animals because
these come into the US with no health and safety checks on arrival,
meaning they could bring new diseases into the country.
There is also a higher risk with game animals, because these are not >sanitized or regulated before being eaten.
Evidence is mounting that the US is already facing a growing number of >animal-to-human infections.
The country recorded more animal-to-human infections in the second half
of the 20th century than any other country globally, the scientists said.
https://archive.ph/ZQgqX
Fear we go again! UK health officials including 'Professor Lockdown'
begin Covid-style 'worst-case scenario' planning for if bird flu becomes >transmissible in humans - as girl, 11, dies and TWELVE more people are
feared infected in Cambodia
Michael Ejercito wrote:
https://archive.ph/ZQgqX
Fear we go again! UK health officials including 'Professor Lockdown'
begin Covid-style 'worst-case scenario' planning for if bird flu becomes
transmissible in humans - as girl, 11, dies and TWELVE more people are
feared infected in Cambodia
Scientists are modelling how an outbreak of avian flu could sweep the UK
Only one infection has been spotted in a Brit since outbreak began in 2021 >> By EMILY CRAIG SENIOR HEALTH REPORTER FOR MAILONLINE
UPDATED: 20:32 EST, 23 February 2023
41
shares
747
View comments
A dozen people in Cambodia are suspected of being infected with the H5N1
bird flu strain in the same province where an 11-year-old girl died on
Wednesday - raising fears the virus may be spreading from human to human
for the first time in decades.
Scientists are modelling how a worst-case scenario bird flu outbreak
could sweep the UK if the virus spread to humans.
The Khmer Times – a local newspaper – reported that the suspected
patients have all been tested for the virus and are waiting on lab
confirmation, four of whom are symptomatic.
Officials at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said they are
developing 'scenarios of early human transmission' to help with
preparedness, planning and improvements to surveillance.
While only one infection has been spotted in Britain since the record
bird flu outbreak began in October 2021, officials begin modelling
outbreaks in people when it deems the risk level is three out of five –
which it is currently.
This picture released by Cambodia's Communicable Disease Control
Department (CDCD) on February 23, 2023, shows villagers posing with
posters about H5N1 virus threats, in Prey Veng province - where a girl
died from the virus this week and 12 more are suspected to have been
infected
+16
View gallery
This picture released by Cambodia's Communicable Disease Control
Department (CDCD) on February 23, 2023, shows villagers posing with
posters about H5N1 virus threats, in Prey Veng province - where a girl
died from the virus this week and 12 more are suspected to have been
infected
Among those working on the models is Professor Neil Ferguson (pictured),
an epidemiologist whose modelling of the Covid outbreak led the UK
Government to impose the first lockdown
+16
View gallery
Among those working on the models is Professor Neil Ferguson
(pictured), an epidemiologist whose modelling of the Covid outbreak led
the UK Government to impose the first lockdown
TRENDING
Bird flu outbreak: Cambodia girl dies, 12 others potentially infected
26k viewing now
Are THESE what spooked health chiefs into a safety review of Sudafed?
10.7k viewing now
How to differentiate between Covid and norovirus symptoms
8.7k viewing now
Dr Arturo Casadevall, an immunologist at Johns Hopkins, reacted to the
suspected outbreak in Cambodia. He wrote on Twitter: 'Key information is
whether the 12 infected people obtained it from a bird source or from
human-to-human transmission, which would be very worrisome.'
Dr Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist and Chief of COVID Task Force at
the New England Complex Systems Institute, tweeted: 'Hope this wasn’t
human to human, but I’m now getting to be worried,'
H5N1 was first detected in chickens in Scotland in 1959, and again in
China and Hong Kong in 1996. It first was detected in humans in 1997.
Human-to-human transmission of H5N1 is incredibly rare, but not
impossible. In 1997, officials confirmed 18 H5N1 cases in Hong Kong,
some of which were acquired through human-to-human transmission. The
outbreak stayed relatively small, though. And did not spiral into a
massive issue at either the local or global level.
This recent outbreak has caused particular concern. More than 15million
domesticated birds, and countless wild animals, have been struck down by
the virus.
There is nothing to be done that can prevent the spread among wild
birds, but officials are working to keep domesticated populations away >>from them. In the UK, all farmed chickens are now required to stay indoors. >> Among those working on the models is Professor Neil Ferguson, an
epidemiologist whose modelling of the Covid outbreak led the UK
Government to impose the first lockdown.
+16
View gallery
The above map shows locations where there is a growing risk of a
zoonotic virus outbreak. Dr Jennifer Nuzzo, a public health expert at
Brown University in Rhode Island, warned that Texas was also a potential
epicenter
Pictured: A National Trust ranger clears deceased birds from Staple
Island in July 2022
+16
View gallery
Pictured: A National Trust ranger clears deceased birds from Staple
Island in July 2022
The UKHSA graph shows the number of bird flu cases, by region in
England, confirmed among kept and wild birds between October 2022 and
February 2023
+16
View gallery
The UKHSA graph shows the number of bird flu cases, by region in
England, confirmed among kept and wild birds between October 2022 and
February 2023
+16
View gallery
A young girl in Cambodia has died from the H5N1 bird flu. She was
infected with the virus last week. She is the nation's first case since
2014 (file photo)
Bird flu cases detected in poultry facilities, by county, in 2022 and 2023 >> Bird flu cases detected in wild birds, by county, in 2022 and 2023
The above map shows bird flu cases detected in poultry facilities (left)
and in wild birds (right) in 2022 and 2023. The WHO has warned the world
to prepare for a potential bird flu pandemic saying the virus could jump
to humans
Before the cases in Cambodia, only one case of H5N1 in humans had been
detected this year. Cases in humans have been rare in recent years
+16
View gallery
Before the cases in Cambodia, only one case of H5N1 in humans had been
detected this year. Cases in humans have been rare in recent years
MORE TRENDING
NYC billionaire financier found dead of a self-inflicted gunshot wound
12.4k viewing now
Video shows Madi Brooks slurring and saying 'I'll book an Uber'
5.7k viewing now
Joy Behar claims Ohio toxic train town had it coming for voting Trump
3.5k viewing now
In an update today, the UKHSA confirmed that its Avian Influenza
Technical Group – which includes Professor Ferguson and around two dozen >> other experts – calculated how an outbreak could sweep the UK.
Under a 'mild scenario', the scientists estimated that one in 400 people
who caught bird flu would die due to the virus.
This infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.25 per cent is similar to
Covid's in mid-2021 and the 2009 bird flu outbreak.
But under a 'more severe scenario', the virus would be fatal among one
in 40 people who became infected (an IFR of 2.5 per cent).
However, the World Health Organization warns that of the 868 human H5N1
cases reported to it over the last two decades, 456 - just over half -
have been fatal.
Bird flu outbreak: Everything you need to know
What is it?
Avian flu is an infectious type of influenza that spreads among birds.
In rare cases, it can be transmitted to humans through close contact
with a dead or alive infected bird.
This includes touching infected birds, their droppings or bedding.
People can also catch bird flu if they kill or prepare infected poultry
for eating.
Wild birds are carriers, especially through migration.
As they cluster together to breed, the virus spreads rapidly and is then
carried to other parts of the globe.
New strains tend to appear first in Asia, from where more than 60
species of shore birds, waders and waterfowl head off to Alaska to breed
and mix with migratory birds from the US. Others go west and infect
European species.
What strain is currently spreading?
H5N1.
So far the new virus has been detected in some 80million birds and
poultry globally since September 2021 — double the previous record the
year before.
Not only is the virus spreading at speed, it is also killing at an
unprecedented level, leading some experts to say this is the deadliest
variant so far.
Millions of chickens and turkeys in the UK have been culled or put into
lockdown, affecting the availability of Christmas turkey and free-range
eggs.
Can it infect people?
Yes, but only 860 human cases have been reported to the World Health
Organization since 2003.
The risk to people has been deemed 'low'.
But people are strongly urged not to touch sick or dead birds because
the virus is lethal, killing 56 per cent of people it does manage to infect. >> ADVERTISEMENT
The Avian Influenza Technical Group noted that while other H5N1
outbreaks have had 'much higher fatality estimates', these did not
involve sustained human-to-human transmission, so are not 'directly
comparable'.
Unlike the Covid pandemic, the scientists said that a bird flu outbreak
could be more deadly among the young, rather than the elderly – as was
seen in the 1918 flu pandemic.
Professor Ferguson has admitted he became 'something of a marmite
figure' and that he 'made mistakes' and 'oversimplified things' during
the pandemic.
Modelling from the epidemiologist and his colleagues at Imperial College
London in March 2020 predicted the NHS would be overwhelmed within weeks
and a terrible death toll would arise if nothing was done to stop the
spread of the disease.
Professor Ferguson has said while it had been challenging for most
Western governments to act in a timely manner, the science throughout
the crisis 'had basically been right'.
In light of the modelling, the UKHSA said it would continue to
investigate how it could detect cases if there was an outbreak among people. >> This could see Covid-style lateral flow tests rolled out to test Brits
for bird flu, it said.
The UKHSA said it is investigating whether the swabs, which provided
results in as little as 15 minutes during the Covid pandemic, would
detect the circulating deadly H5N1 strain.
It is also probing whether a blood test could be developed that detects
antibodies against the virus.
Genetic mutations in positive samples are also being monitored for any
signal that the virus is mutating to become a bigger risk to people.
It will 'remain vigilant' over whether the 'constantly' evolving virus,
which kills over half of those it infects, has gained mutations that may
better allow it spread among people.
The UKHSA also noted that the 'very high levels' of transmission in wild
birds presents a 'constant risk'.
The agency noted that there is 'no evidence so far that the virus is
getting better at infecting humans or other mammals' and data suggests
H5N1 'does not pass easily to people'.
But it warned there is an 'increased chance' of people coming into
contact with the virus due to the sky-high rates among birds.
It urged Brits to avoid contact with sick or dead wild birds in parks
and waterways and wash their hands after feeding wild birds, to reduce
the risk of exposure to bird flu.
Dr Meera Chand, incident director for avian influenza at the UKHSA,
said: 'The latest evidence suggests that the avian influenza viruses
we're seeing circulating in birds do not currently spread easily to people. >> 'However, viruses constantly evolve, and we remain vigilant for any
evidence of changing risk to the population, as well as working with
partners to address gaps in the scientific evidence.'
The weekly update also revealed that 2,310 Brits have been monitored by
UKHSA officials between October 1 2022 and February 14 after being
exposed to bird flu.
Imperial College London published a paper in March 2020 on the potential
impact of coronavirus. It weighed up options on how a lockdown could
reduce demand on hospitals
+16
View gallery
Imperial College London published a paper in March 2020 on the potential
impact of coronavirus. It weighed up options on how a lockdown could
reduce demand on hospitals
The UKHSA graph shows the number of cases of the H5N1 bird flu strain
detected among mammals, such as foxes and otters, between October 2021
and January 2023 in England (light blue), Scotland (dark blue) and Wales
(green)
+16
View gallery
The UKHSA graph shows the number of cases of the H5N1 bird flu strain
detected among mammals, such as foxes and otters, between October 2021
and January 2023 in England (light blue), Scotland (dark blue) and Wales
(green)
The graph, from the UKHSA, displays cases of H5N1 among mammals
worldwide between January 2020 and February 2023
+16
View gallery
The graph, from the UKHSA, displays cases of H5N1 among mammals
worldwide between January 2020 and February 2023
The UKHSA graphic shows the number of people exposed to bird flu between
October 2022 and February 2023, by region in England
+16
View gallery
The UKHSA graphic shows the number of people exposed to bird flu between
October 2022 and February 2023, by region in England
But samples taken from those who developed any cold or flu-like symptoms
in the three weeks after coming into contact with the virus revealed
none had become infected.
The UK's avian flu outbreak began in October 2021, after health chiefs
spotted the virus was still spreading among birds after the spring and
summer months – when they usually decline.
Health chiefs have warned that the winter migration of wild birds is
likely to further hike avian flu transmission in the coming months. This
is because migrating birds can infect local kept and wild birds, driving
up cases.
As well as record cases in birds, the virus has also been spotted in
other animals, such as foxes, otters and seals in the UK, mink in Spain
and sea lions in Peru.
This sparked concern that the virus may be spreading between the
mammals, which would indicate it had picked up a troublesome mutation
that could, in theory, make it easier for humans to become infected.
+16
View gallery
Nearly 300 confirmed cases of H5N1 have been detected among birds in
England since the current outbreak began in October 2021. However, the
true toll is thought to be much higher. The map shows the areas where
cases have been detected and where 3km (blue dots) and 10km (yellow
dots) protection zones have been imposed — meaning enhanced infection
control measures are in place among those who have birds
Pictured: A dead bird in Queens Park in Heywood, Rochdale, amid the
bird flu outbreak
+16
View gallery
Pictured: A dead bird in Queens Park in Heywood, Rochdale, amid the
bird flu outbreak
Alan Gosling (pictured), a retired engineer in Devon, caught the virus
after his ducks, some of which lived inside his home, became infected.
No one else caught the virus
+16
View gallery
Alan Gosling (pictured), a retired engineer in Devon, caught the virus
after his ducks, some of which lived inside his home, became infected.
No one else caught the virus
Further testing is still required to determine if mammals are
transmitting the virus, however.
But there has only been one case of a British person becoming infected
since the current outbreak began.
Alan Gosling, a retired engineer in Devon, caught the virus in early
2022 after his ducks, some of which lived inside his home, became infected. >> Cambodian Health Minister Mam Bunheng warned that bird flu poses an
exceptionally high risk to children who may be feeding or collecting
eggs from domesticated poultry, playing with the birds or cleaning their
cages.
The virus can spread to humans when a person has an open wound exposed
to an infected bird. Usually, infections occur when a person is pecked
or clawed by a bird. Transmission can also occur from a dead bird to a
human.
America is still 'fundamentally unprepared' for zoonotic diseases
Harvard and NYU experts have described it as the greatest threat to
humankind and warn much of the world in unprepared
ADVERTISEMENT
World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom
Ghebreyesus said the agency still deems the risk of bird flu to humans
as low. 'But we cannot assume that will remain the case, and we must
prepare for any change in the status quo,' he said earlier this month.
He advised people not to touch dead or sick wild animals and for
countries to strengthen their surveillance of settings where people and
animals interact.
Cambodia had 56 human cases of H5N1 from 2003 through 2014, and 37 of
them were fatal, according to the World Health Organization.
Each person had samples were taken for analysis for a lab in Phnom Penh,
the nation's capital, around 40 miles west of the rural province of Prey
Veng, where the suspected cases were detected.
It is unclear whether this group of people had any interaction with the
11-year-old girl, or if they come from the same part of the province. It
is also unclear whether they had interactions with any birds that could
be carrying the virus.
More than 1.1million people live in Prey Veng, it is the third most
populous province in the country, and known to be densely populated.
Prey Veng is also were the girl who eventually died lived. She became
ill on February 16 and was sent to be treated at a hospital in the capital >> She was diagnosed last Wednesday after suffering a fever up to 39C
(102F) with coughing and throat pain. She died shortly after her
diagnosis, the Health Ministry said in a statement Wednesday night.
There are no treatments designed specifically for humans infected with
bird flu, let alone H5N1. Those who fall ill are treated with regular
antiviral drugs such as Zanamivir and Peramivir.
In case of an outbreak, the US does have a stockpile of vaccines
designed to prevent infection from H5N1.
It is sold under the name Audenz and was approved in 2021 by the Food
and Drug Administration for people six months and older. It is a
two-dose vaccine.
Health officials have taken samples from a dead wild bird at a
conservation area near the Prey Veng girl's home, the ministry said in
another statement Thursday. It said teams in the area would also warn
residents about touching dead and sick birds.
Experts warn that the virus is adapting in ways that allow it to cause
outbreaks in other mammals - increasing the risk it could spread among
people.
In October, an outbreak of the bird flu ravaged a population of 52,000
mink at a farm in Spain.
Some of the critters were initially infected by eating meat from birds
that died while infected.
There were also signs of mink-to-mink spread of the flu, which is
unusual for a mammal population and signals a change to the virus.
In Peru, 716 sea lions were found to have died from the bird flu in
recent weeks. Local officials worry that the virus has also spread
between the animals - which are also mammals.
The world is suffering what has been described as the worst bird flu
outbreak ever recorded, with over 58million birds in the US alone having
been culled or killed by the virus over the past year.
Unlike usual spikes in bird flu that last months, this outbreak
sustained itself through the summer of 2022 and is spread almost
entirely by wild birds
+16
View gallery
Unlike usual spikes in bird flu that last months, this outbreak
sustained itself through the summer of 2022 and is spread almost
entirely by wild birds
For the US poultry industry the battle has been deadliest in history.
The outbreak has ramped up pressure on the industry to protect its
flocks and forced them to kill millions of birds to avoid the deadly spread. >> To protect their domesticated birds, farmers around the country have
installed extra protections from wild flocks, including installing
vibrating mechanisms in containers holding chicken feed to avoid worker
contamination.
The disease is so contagious that wind can carry bird droppings to a
barn vent causing the virus to circulate inside.
It can also be spread to commercial flocks by workers stepping on
wild-bird feces outside of a barn and spreading it inside with each step.
Some farms have installed motion-detecting alarms, known as 'sound
cannons', as well as bright laser systems to shoo away wild birds
without harming them.
The recent spread of the virus has lead to rampant inflation of both
chicken and egg prices in the US and across the world.
Federal officials also fear that the spring migration of birds could
also reignite spread of the deadly virus.
A Cambodian man carries dead chickens at a market in Phnom Penh - the
capital and most populous city of Cambodia
+16
View gallery
A Cambodian man carries dead chickens at a market in Phnom Penh - the
capital and most populous city of Cambodia
It comes as experts express greater fears of the threat of zoonotic
diseases spreading in America. Last week, experts at Harvard University,
in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and New York University, warned about the
risks of zoonotic transmission.
In an editorial, they accuse the US of being too obsessed with external
threats such as bioterrorism and lab leaks while failing to keep a close
eye on the risks in its own backyard.
They called for an overhaul of regulatory agencies, including the US
Department of Agriculture.
Experts have already warned that the next zoonotic outbreak could occur
in China — because of its wet food markets — and Rwanda and Brazil — >> where urbanization and expanding agriculture are bringing people into
contact with wild animals they would previously have been separated from.
But they also warn that Texas — one of the world's leading producers of
meat — could also be a hotbed for new dangerous viruses.
In the piece, they urged: 'What is needed is not simply for agencies to
do their jobs better or to paper over the gaps, but a fundamental
restructuring of the way that human-animal interfaces are governed.
'A One Health approach, which NBS-22 claims as its guiding principle,
would take the health of other living things not merely as the
occasional means or obstacles to human health, but as continuous with it.
'The first step in implementing such an approach would be to create a
high-level process for integrating the broken mosaic of multiple
agencies, with their unclear and sometimes competing mandates, into an
effective, comprehensive regime.'
Figures show 10billion animals were killed for meat in the US in 2022,
the highest number on record and up 204million in 2021.
The country is also a leading importer of live animals — which could
harbor diseases — bringing in about 200million annually according to
estimates.
There is also a large wild game market which raises about 40million
animals annually.
Scientists warned that infections could jump from animals to humans at
any stage in the meat supply chain — from the rearing facility right
through to slaughter and where it is consumed.
They warn there is a higher risk with live imported animals because
these come into the US with no health and safety checks on arrival,
meaning they could bring new diseases into the country.
There is also a higher risk with game animals, because these are not
sanitized or regulated before being eaten.
Evidence is mounting that the US is already facing a growing number of
animal-to-human infections.
The country recorded more animal-to-human infections in the second half
of the 20th century than any other country globally, the scientists said.
While COVID-19 has been detected in the wild deer populations in the
U.S., there hasn't been any reports of deer-to-human/hunter infections
yet. The worst-case scenario here is that the millions with long-COVID
have a terrible 100% CFR when H5N1 joins the on-going pandemic.
In the interim, the only *healthy* way to stop the on-going pandemic,
thereby saving lives, in the UK & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) finding out at any given moment,
including even while on-line, who among us are unwittingly contagious
(i.e pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic) in order to http://WDJW.great-site.net/ConvinceItForward (John 15:12) for them to
call their doctor and self-quarantine per their doctor in hopes of
stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the best while
preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage mutations
and others like the Omicron, Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota, Lambda, Mu &
Delta lineage mutations combining via slip-RNA-replication to form
hybrids like http://tinyurl.com/Deltamicron that may render current
COVID vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://tinyurl.com/RapidOmicronTest
) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
| Sysop: | Keyop |
|---|---|
| Location: | Huddersfield, West Yorkshire, UK |
| Users: | 302 |
| Nodes: | 16 (2 / 14) |
| Uptime: | 121:37:41 |
| Calls: | 6,769 |
| Calls today: | 2 |
| Files: | 12,299 |
| Messages: | 5,376,787 |
| Posted today: | 2 |