https://archive.vn/BrBeI
Lockdowns put us at the mercy of disease
We are experiencing a predictable perturbation in our ecological
relationship with the organisms that are capable of causing serious disease >SUNETRA GUPTA
9 December 2022 7:00am
Sunetra Gupta
Covid-19 pandemic coronavirus lockdown face mask social distancing
British society will suffer the burden of lockdown's after-effects for >decades to come CREDIT: AP
Fans of Little Women will know that Beth March died of the lingering >complications of scarlet fever, but who would have thought that this >bacterial disease would be in the headlines in 2022? Is this because we
have left children who were born during, or just ahead of, the Covid
pandemic with an immunity debt?
It is now widely acknowledged that lockdowns caused harm to our already >stretched health service, with many of the direct consequences such as >increased cancer and cardiovascular deaths being reported regularly.
Most of these harms were entirely predictable. Less obvious was how some
of the more indirect consequences of lockdown might play out, such as
the effect on our relationship with other pathogens circulating within
our communities.
I am used to viewing infectious disease from an ecological perspective. >Therefore, it did not come as much of a surprise to me that some
non-Covid seasonal respiratory diseases almost immediately started to
take a knock on the head during lockdown. Many took this to be an
indication that lockdowns were working to stop the spread of disease, >forgetting that the impact of lockdowns on already established or
endemic diseases is completely different to the impact on a new
disease in its epidemic phase.
It is worth explaining this. For an individual, immunity debt can be >interpreted as a gap in the level of protection that you might be
expected to have from previous exposure to the disease in question. The
same principle also applies to a whole population. This is because there
is a threshold of immunity in the population at which rates of new
infections start to decline known as the herd immunity threshold. If
we are below this threshold, we are in immunity debt; if we are above
it, we are in credit at least for a while.
With endemic diseases, we go into immunity debt as winter sets in and
the herd immunity threshold (which is determined by the transmissibility
of the pathogen) rises. This causes a seasonal increase in infection and >leaves us in credit for the rest of the season. Over the summer, the
numbers immune fall, leaving us again with an immunity debt in the
winter. Any small change to the transmissibility of the pathogen will
disrupt the rhythm and can cause these pathogens to disappear by
reducing the Herd Immunity Threshold and so transiently cancelling their >normal immunity debt.
A pathogen entering an immunologically nave population will start off
with a massive immunity debt, leading to infections growing very
rapidly at this epidemic stage. This is why lockdowns hardly make a
dent in the progress of an epidemic, but can have such a significant
effect on endemic diseases.
Such effects are, however, transient. Endemic diseases will soon
re-establish themselves, and as we have seen can return more
aggressively than usual on account of the immunity debt they have
amassed in the interim.
This can cause all sorts of problems. Naturally, health care systems
will have to be prepared for higher than usual hospitalisations during
this period of re-adjustment. It is a particularly troublesome task for
the NHS, which continues to struggle with capacity problems.
Furthermore, the synchronised rise in these suppressed infections
enhances the possibility of coinfection; this has been recognised as a >potential cause of a spate of adenovirus infection related deaths
earlier this year. And if the likelihood of clinical complications
increases with age, there will be obvious perverse consequences of
delaying infection.
It is hard to say which of these potential mechanisms is the key
contributor to the very unfortunate re-emergence of scarlet fever as a
cause of severe disease and death in young children in the UK. Group A >Streptococcus, its causative agent, exists within a complex network of
other bacterial species which also may have suffered changes in
composition as result of Covid lockdowns. Disturbing this order can have
a profound impact on an individuals ability to resist disease.
More than anything, it is clear that we are experiencing an entirely >predictable perturbation in our finely balanced ecological relationship
with the organisms which are capable of causing serious disease.
Eventually that balance will return. The immunity debt that we have >incurred will be gruesomely paid off and scarlet fever will once again
become a storybook word. Sadly, the same cannot be said of the enormous >financial debt we have taken on board to pay for these fruitless
lockdowns. Our children will be shouldering this debt for years to come. >Sunetra Gupta is professor of theoretical epidemiology at the Department
of Zoology, University of Oxford
Michael Ejercito wrote:
https://archive.vn/BrBeI
Lockdowns put us at the mercy of disease
We are experiencing a predictable perturbation in our ecological
relationship with the organisms that are capable of causing serious disease >> SUNETRA GUPTA
9 December 2022 • 7:00am
Sunetra Gupta
Covid-19 pandemic coronavirus lockdown face mask social distancing
British society will suffer the burden of lockdown's after-effects for
decades to come CREDIT: AP
Fans of Little Women will know that Beth March died of the lingering
complications of scarlet fever, but who would have thought that this
bacterial disease would be in the headlines in 2022? Is this because we
have left children who were born during, or just ahead of, the Covid
pandemic with an “immunity debt”?
It is now widely acknowledged that lockdowns caused harm to our already
stretched health service, with many of the direct consequences such as
increased cancer and cardiovascular deaths being reported regularly.
Most of these harms were entirely predictable. Less obvious was how some
of the more indirect consequences of lockdown might play out, such as
the effect on our relationship with other pathogens circulating within
our communities.
I am used to viewing infectious disease from an ecological perspective.
Therefore, it did not come as much of a surprise to me that some
non-Covid seasonal respiratory diseases almost immediately started to
take a knock on the head during lockdown. Many took this to be an
indication that lockdowns were working to stop the spread of disease,
forgetting that the impact of lockdowns on already established or
“endemic” diseases is completely different to the impact on a new
disease in its “epidemic” phase.
It is worth explaining this. For an individual, “immunity debt” can be >> interpreted as a gap in the level of protection that you might be
expected to have from previous exposure to the disease in question. The
same principle also applies to a whole population. This is because there
is a threshold of immunity in the population at which rates of new
infections start to decline — known as the herd immunity threshold. If
we are below this threshold, we are in immunity debt; if we are above
it, we are in credit — at least for a while.
With endemic diseases, we go into immunity debt as winter sets in and
the herd immunity threshold (which is determined by the transmissibility
of the pathogen) rises. This causes a seasonal increase in infection and
leaves us in credit for the rest of the season. Over the summer, the
numbers immune fall, leaving us again with an “immunity debt” in the
winter. Any small change to the transmissibility of the pathogen will
disrupt the rhythm and can cause these pathogens to disappear by
reducing the Herd Immunity Threshold and so transiently cancelling their
normal “immunity debt”.
A pathogen entering an immunologically naïve population will start off
with a massive “immunity debt”, leading to infections growing very
rapidly at this ‘epidemic’ stage. This is why lockdowns hardly make a
dent in the progress of an epidemic, but can have such a significant
effect on endemic diseases.
Such effects are, however, transient. Endemic diseases will soon
re-establish themselves, and – as we have seen – can return more
aggressively than usual on account of the “immunity debt” they have
amassed in the interim.
This can cause all sorts of problems. Naturally, health care systems
will have to be prepared for higher than usual hospitalisations during
this period of re-adjustment. It is a particularly troublesome task for
the NHS, which continues to struggle with capacity problems.
Furthermore, the synchronised rise in these suppressed infections
enhances the possibility of coinfection; this has been recognised as a
potential cause of a spate of adenovirus infection related deaths
earlier this year. And if the likelihood of clinical complications
increases with age, there will be obvious perverse consequences of
delaying infection.
It is hard to say which of these potential mechanisms is the key
contributor to the very unfortunate re-emergence of scarlet fever as a
cause of severe disease and death in young children in the UK. Group A
Streptococcus, its causative agent, exists within a complex network of
other bacterial species which also may have suffered changes in
composition as result of Covid lockdowns. Disturbing this order can have
a profound impact on an individual’s ability to resist disease.
More than anything, it is clear that we are experiencing an entirely
predictable perturbation in our finely balanced ecological relationship
with the organisms which are capable of causing serious disease.
Eventually that balance will return. The “immunity debt” that we have
incurred will be gruesomely paid off and scarlet fever will once again
become a storybook word. Sadly, the same cannot be said of the enormous
financial debt we have taken on board to pay for these fruitless
lockdowns. Our children will be shouldering this debt for years to come.
Sunetra Gupta is professor of theoretical epidemiology at the Department
of Zoology, University of Oxford
The only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving lives, in
the U.K. & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19
) finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://tinyurl.com/ConvinceItForward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage mutations and others like the Omicron, Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota,
Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations combining via
slip-RNA-replication to form hybrids like
http://tinyurl.com/Deltamicron that may render current COVID vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://tinyurl.com/RapidOmicronTest
) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Michael Ejercito wrote:
https://archive.vn/BrBeI
Lockdowns put us at the mercy of disease
We are experiencing a predictable perturbation in our ecological
relationship with the organisms that are capable of causing serious disease >>> SUNETRA GUPTA
9 December 2022 7:00am
Sunetra Gupta
Covid-19 pandemic coronavirus lockdown face mask social distancing
British society will suffer the burden of lockdown's after-effects for
decades to come CREDIT: AP
Fans of Little Women will know that Beth March died of the lingering
complications of scarlet fever, but who would have thought that this
bacterial disease would be in the headlines in 2022? Is this because we
have left children who were born during, or just ahead of, the Covid
pandemic with an immunity debt?
It is now widely acknowledged that lockdowns caused harm to our already
stretched health service, with many of the direct consequences such as
increased cancer and cardiovascular deaths being reported regularly.
Most of these harms were entirely predictable. Less obvious was how some >>> of the more indirect consequences of lockdown might play out, such as
the effect on our relationship with other pathogens circulating within
our communities.
I am used to viewing infectious disease from an ecological perspective.
Therefore, it did not come as much of a surprise to me that some
non-Covid seasonal respiratory diseases almost immediately started to
take a knock on the head during lockdown. Many took this to be an
indication that lockdowns were working to stop the spread of disease,
forgetting that the impact of lockdowns on already established or
endemic diseases is completely different to the impact on a new
disease in its epidemic phase.
It is worth explaining this. For an individual, immunity debt can be
interpreted as a gap in the level of protection that you might be
expected to have from previous exposure to the disease in question. The
same principle also applies to a whole population. This is because there >>> is a threshold of immunity in the population at which rates of new
infections start to decline known as the herd immunity threshold. If
we are below this threshold, we are in immunity debt; if we are above
it, we are in credit at least for a while.
With endemic diseases, we go into immunity debt as winter sets in and
the herd immunity threshold (which is determined by the transmissibility >>> of the pathogen) rises. This causes a seasonal increase in infection and >>> leaves us in credit for the rest of the season. Over the summer, the
numbers immune fall, leaving us again with an immunity debt in the
winter. Any small change to the transmissibility of the pathogen will
disrupt the rhythm and can cause these pathogens to disappear by
reducing the Herd Immunity Threshold and so transiently cancelling their >>> normal immunity debt.
A pathogen entering an immunologically nave population will start off
with a massive immunity debt, leading to infections growing very
rapidly at this epidemic stage. This is why lockdowns hardly make a
dent in the progress of an epidemic, but can have such a significant
effect on endemic diseases.
Such effects are, however, transient. Endemic diseases will soon
re-establish themselves, and as we have seen can return more
aggressively than usual on account of the immunity debt they have
amassed in the interim.
This can cause all sorts of problems. Naturally, health care systems
will have to be prepared for higher than usual hospitalisations during
this period of re-adjustment. It is a particularly troublesome task for
the NHS, which continues to struggle with capacity problems.
Furthermore, the synchronised rise in these suppressed infections
enhances the possibility of coinfection; this has been recognised as a
potential cause of a spate of adenovirus infection related deaths
earlier this year. And if the likelihood of clinical complications
increases with age, there will be obvious perverse consequences of
delaying infection.
It is hard to say which of these potential mechanisms is the key
contributor to the very unfortunate re-emergence of scarlet fever as a
cause of severe disease and death in young children in the UK. Group A
Streptococcus, its causative agent, exists within a complex network of
other bacterial species which also may have suffered changes in
composition as result of Covid lockdowns. Disturbing this order can have >>> a profound impact on an individuals ability to resist disease.
More than anything, it is clear that we are experiencing an entirely
predictable perturbation in our finely balanced ecological relationship
with the organisms which are capable of causing serious disease.
Eventually that balance will return. The immunity debt that we have
incurred will be gruesomely paid off and scarlet fever will once again
become a storybook word. Sadly, the same cannot be said of the enormous
financial debt we have taken on board to pay for these fruitless
lockdowns. Our children will be shouldering this debt for years to come. >>> Sunetra Gupta is professor of theoretical epidemiology at the Department >>> of Zoology, University of Oxford
The only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving lives, in
the U.K. & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19
) finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://tinyurl.com/ConvinceItForward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage
mutations and others like the Omicron, Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota,
Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations combining via
slip-RNA-replication to form hybrids like
http://tinyurl.com/Deltamicron that may render current COVID
vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://tinyurl.com/RapidOmicronTest
) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
I am wonderfully hungry!
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