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UK experts helped shut down Covid lab leak theory - weeks after being
told it might be true
Sir Patrick Vallance among scientists behind paper that stifled debate
into the origins of the virus
By
Sarah Knapton,
SCIENCE EDITOR and
Ashley Rindsberg
23 November 2022 • 9:10pm
Sir Patrick Vallance helped publish a paper arguing that a natural
spillover event caused the pandemic
Sir Patrick Vallance helped publish a paper arguing that a natural
spillover event caused the pandemic CREDIT: George Cracknell
Wright/LNP/London News Pictures Ltd
Top scientists including Sir Patrick Vallance were warned that Covid-19
could have evolved in laboratory animals, but collaborated in a paper
which shut down the lab leak theory, it has emerged.
The paper, “The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2,” published in Nature Medicine in March 2020, argued that a natural spillover event caused the pandemic, and was hugely instrumental in stifling debate into the
origins of the virus.
But newly released emails from early 2020 show that in the weeks before publication the authors held lengthy discussions with experts, including
Sir Patrick and Sir Jeremy Farrar, the head of the Wellcome Trust.
In those discussions, experts were advised that the unusual features
seen in Covid-19 could have evolved in animals in a lab, as well as in
the wild.
They were also warned that the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) had
been carrying out research on bat-coronaviruses at worrying levels of biosecurity.
Yet by the time the paper was published, all reference to biosecurity
problems in Wuhan had been removed, and the authors argued that lab
evolution of the virus was unlikely.
Questions have arisen around the drafting and formulation of the paper
since its publication.
The lead author of the paper, Prof Kristian Andersen, of the Scripps
Research Institute in La Jolla, California, had earlier told colleagues
that features of the virus looked as if they’d been engineered in a lab. However, no mention of this was made in the paper.
'Important to stay open-minded'
Commenting on the new emails, which were released under Freedom of
Information request, Dr Jeremy Farrar, the director of Wellcome, said:
"It is important that we understand how all pathogens emerge so that we
can prevent future pandemics.
“In my view, the scientific evidence continues to point to SARS-CoV-2 crossing from animals to humans as the most likely scenario.
“However, as the efforts to gather evidence continue, it is important to
stay open-minded and work together internationally to understand the
emergence of Covid and variant strains – to end this pandemic and reduce
the risks of future events.”
A Government Office for Science spokesperson said: “The Government Chief Scientific Adviser ensures that policies and decisions are informed by
the best scientific evidence.
“The GCSA promotes full transparency and an open exchange of ideas and scientific opinion as the email exchange reflects.”
The emails were released following an FOI request from James Tobias, a freelance journalist.
More reason to believe scientists were trying not to upset China
In March 2020, just days before Britain entered its first Covid
lockdown, an influential scientific paper was published in the journal
Nature Medicine.
The paper, entitled "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2" argued that the
new deadly virus sweeping the globe was of natural origin, having jumped
from animals to humans.
Covid had emerged just a few miles from the Wuhan Institute of Virology
(WIV) where scientists had been collecting and manipulating bat
coronaviruses, leading to widespread speculation that a deadly
experiment could have leaked from a lab.
Yet after the research paper was published, serious probing into the lab
theory effectively stopped.
Now new emails show that some of the authors had indeed suspected a
laboratory leak, and had discussed it in the weeks before publication
with leading scientists including Sir Patrick Vallance and Sir Jeremy
Farrar.
In an email chain debating the original draft, one of the authors even
admitted that the virus would look the same whether it had evolved
naturally or in lab mice in a process known as "serial passaging".
In an email on February 8 2020, Dr Robert Garry, from the University of
Sydney, pointed out that similar effects had been seen when bird flu had
been passaged in laboratory chickens.
Yet by the time the paper was published the authors dismissed the
possibility, concluding: “Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is
not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus”.
One of the reasons the authors gave in the paper for dropping the lab
theory was that the Covid-19 contained sugars known as "o-glycans" which
help the immune system.
In the Nature Medicine paper they said it showed that the virus could
not have been a lab creation.
However they failed to point out that if the virus had evolved in lab
animals it would also contain o-glycans, a fact they had discussed in
the emails.
In fact, in the emails Sir Patrick said that the "glycan point" could be
used in the paper as "further weight against a passage origin".
The original draft also pointed out that research to alter Sars-like bat coronaviruses had been taking place for many years in Wuhan at dangerous biosecurity levels - a fact that was later removed from the finished paper.
In one email exchange, Sir Jeremy even warned that research in Wuhan was
like the "Wild West".
The email release will add more fuel to accusations that eminent
scientists effectively publicly shut down investigations into a lab leak
so as not to upset China, while believing privately it was possible.
Covid had emerged just a few miles from the Wuhan Institute of Virology
(WIV) where scientists had been collecting and manipulating bat
coronaviruses
Covid had emerged just a few miles from the Wuhan Institute of Virology
(WIV) where scientists had been collecting and manipulating bat
coronaviruses CREDIT: ROMAN PILIPEY/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
In the newly released email chain, Prof Ron Fouchier, a Dutch
neurologist, warned that even investigating a lab leak could harm
Chinese research.
“An accusation that (Covid-19) might have been engineered and released
into the environment by humans (accidental or intentional) would need to
be supported by strong data, beyond reasonable doubt,” he warned.
“It is good that this possibility was discussed in detail with a team of experts. However, further debate about such accusations would
unnecessarily distract top researchers from active duties and do
unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular.” Many scientists now agree that a lab leak is highly plausible, but most
of the supporting evidence was found by hackers and rogue scientists who
were branded conspiracy theorists for challenging the accepted narrative.
The latest email release shows that scientists who dismissed a lab leak accepted it was possible behind closed doors.
In an email on February 8 Prof Edward Holmes, one of the authors of the
Nature Medicine paper, from the University of Sydney, acknowledged that
many people believed the virus had leaked from the Wuhan lab.
He wrote: “Ever since this outbreak started there have been suggestions
that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab, if only because of the
coincidence of where the outbreak occurred and the location of the lab.
“I do a lot of work in China and I can tell you a lot of people there
believe this and believe they are being lied to.”
Another on the same date from Prof Kristian Andersen, of Scripps
Research Institute in La Jolla, California, said it would be wrong to
dismiss a lab leak "out of hand".
He wrote: “Passage of Sars-live coronaviruses have been going on for
several years and more specifically in Wuhan under BSL-2 conditions.”
BSL-2 laboratories are used to study moderate-risk infectious agents or
toxins such as salmonella. Serious diseases should be handled in BSL-3
or 4 labs.
Evidence has shown that the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) was
importing bat coronaviruses from areas of China which hold the closest
viruses to Covid-19.
Experts were also warned that the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) had
been carrying out research on bat-coronaviruses at worrying levels of biosecurity
Experts were also warned that the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) had
been carrying out research on bat-coronaviruses at worrying levels of biosecurity CREDIT: Barcroft Media/Getty Images Contributor
The institute had also applied for funding to manipulate viruses by
inserting a furin cleavage site (FCS) which is what makes Covid-19 so infectious in humans.
A recent report by the US Senate Committee concluded that the Covid-19
pandemic was "more likely than not" the result of a laboratory accident, arguing that no candidate for an animal spillover had ever been found.
In the emails, Sir Jeremy said the purpose of discussions was to come to
a consensus view and "lay down a respected statement to frame whatever
debate goes on, before that debate gets out of hand with potentially
hugely damaging ramifications."
The results of the study were considered so perilous that it led the US government to put a moratorium on research to enhance the lethality of
viruses.
The email chain also involved Anthony Fauci, the director of the
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), an
organisation which was funding research at the Wuhan lab.
To date the "Proximal origin" paper has been accessed more than 5.7
million times and cited in 2,627 subsequent papers.

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