Michael Ejercito wrote:I am wonderfully hungry!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10804993/SAGE-models-scary-held-weight-says-lockdown-architect-them.html
SAGE models were too 'scary' and held too much weight... says lockdown
architect behind them! No10 Covid expert admits death forecasts were
'eye watering' and should have considered economy
Professor John Edmunds said Covid models were only supposed to be 'one
component' of decision-making
He accepted models failed to account for the economic and health harms
that Covid lockdowns caused
SAGE member admitted these harms 'in principle' could have been factored
in 'but in practice they were not'
By EMILY CRAIG HEALTH REPORTER FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 11:20 EDT, 11 May 2022 | UPDATED: 12:59 EDT, 11 May 2022
575
shares
487
View comments
Professor John Edmunds (pictured), a SAGE modeller, said scientists'
projections of Covid infections, hospitalisations and deaths was only
'one component' of decision-making but were leaned on too much by ministers >> +5
View gallery
Professor John Edmunds (pictured), a SAGE modeller, said scientists'
projections of Covid infections, hospitalisations and deaths was only
'one component' of decision-making but were leaned on too much by ministers >>
Britain relied too much on 'very scary' SAGE models to decide on
lockdowns, according to the man behind some of those very projections.
Just months after SAGE predicted 6,000 deaths per day and called for a
Christmas lockdown in response to Omicron, Professor John Edmunds said
the models were only supposed to be 'one component' of decision-making
but were leaned on too much by ministers.
He accepted the models failed to account for the economic harm and the
knock-on health effects that lockdowns caused.
Professor Edmunds admitted that these harms 'in principle' could have
been factored into models 'but in practice they were not'.
His remarks come as Britons face the harsh reality of two years' of
shutting down the economy and health service, with the NHS grappling a
backlog crisis that has seen one in nine people in England stuck on an
NHS waiting list for treatment and inflation at its highest point in 30
years.
The epidemiologist, who was among the most outspoken members of SAGE,
said some of the death projections in the model were 'truly eye-watering'. >>
Speaking at a medical conference on Tuesday, he said: 'The
epidemiological model is only one component [of decision-making] and I
wondered and I worried that we’d had too much weight.'
READ MORE
He added: 'There is of course an enormous economic impact from many of
the interventions and other indirect impacts on psychological health and
so on. Now these in principle could be included but in practice they
were not.'
Professor Edmunds called for the first lockdown to be extended in summer
2021, warning Britain was 'taking a risk' by unlocking while still
logging 8,000 cases per day and that the decision was 'clearly' political. >>
And he warned against easing the third national lockdown in early 2021,
warning it would be a 'disaster' and put 'enormous pressure' on the
health service.
Professor Edmunds' team at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical
Medicine were among four modelling groups that fed into Government
recommendations.
Professor Neil Ferguson - dubbed Professor Lockdown for his gloomy
forecasts - worked within another modelling team at Imperial College
London.
The chair of the SPI-M modelling group has previously admitted the
groups did not consider optimistic scenarios because 'that doesn't get
decisions made'.
SAGE's modelling team at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine presented projections on infections (purple), hospitalisations
(red) and deaths (black) under different scenarios between now and
August 2022. The top graph shows hospital admissions from the beginning >>from the pandemic. They estimated there could be 10,400 hospitalisations
in England per day at the peak of the outbreak in February in a
worst-case scenario (far right red graph), if Omicron escapes immunity >>from vaccines and previous infection and the boosters have a low
efficacy. They assumed that Omicron will continue to grow exponentially
even under Plan B curbs, two jabs offer just 50 per cent protection
against severe disease from the mutant strain and boosters just 80 per cent >> +5
View gallery
SAGE's modelling team at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine presented projections on infections (purple), hospitalisations
(red) and deaths (black) under different scenarios between now and
August 2022. The top graph shows hospital admissions from the beginning >>from the pandemic. They estimated there could be 10,400 hospitalisations
in England per day at the peak of the outbreak in February in a
worst-case scenario (far right red graph), if Omicron escapes immunity >>from vaccines and previous infection and the boosters have a low
efficacy. They assumed that Omicron will continue to grow exponentially
even under Plan B curbs, two jabs offer just 50 per cent protection
against severe disease from the mutant strain and boosters just 80 per cent >>
Imperial College London modelling from March 2020 showed Covid
restrictions individually were insufficient to bring down virus
hospitalisations to a level that hospitals could cope with
+5
View gallery
Imperial College London modelling from March 2020 showed Covid
restrictions individually were insufficient to bring down virus
hospitalisations to a level that hospitals could cope with
Warwick University scientists calculated there would be 6,000 deaths a
day if Plan B alone remains implemented and there is 'extreme pressure'
on the NHS. The graph shows death estimates if Plan B has low
effectiveness (top row of graphs) to high effectiveness (bottom row),
while the columns show death projections based on Omicron's severity
(low to high, left to right)
+5
View gallery
Warwick University scientists calculated there would be 6,000 deaths a
day if Plan B alone remains implemented and there is 'extreme pressure'
on the NHS. The graph shows death estimates if Plan B has low
effectiveness (top row of graphs) to high effectiveness (bottom row),
while the columns show death projections based on Omicron's severity
(low to high, left to right)
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Most recently, in the winter Omicron surge, the teams warned that daily
hospitalisations could reach 10,000 — more than four times higher than
actual peak of around 2,400. Deaths peaked 20-times lower than the
experts' worst-case scenario.
Ahead of Freedom Day last July, SAGE modelling suggested there could be
another 200,000 UK deaths in the year June 2022 in a worst-case
scenario, which was quickly disputed by other scientists who said it
underestimated the power of the vaccines.
And ahead of the winter 2020 surge, they warned deaths could hit 4,000
per day. A peak of 1,820 was logged.
Speaking at the European Society for Paediatric Infectious Diseases 40th
annual conference, which is taking place in Athens this week, Professor
Edmunds admitted there are weaknesses to scientific models.
WHO chief slams China's for its 'unsustainable' zero Covid policy
The head of the World Health Organization has finally criticised China's
Zero Covid strategy and urged it to change its policy, as millions in
Shanghai enter their seventh and most brutal week of lockdown yet.
In a rare rebuke of the Communist party, which is one of the biggest
financial contributors to the health agency, WHO director-general Tedros
Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the strategy was unsustainable.
'As we all know, the virus is evolving, changing its behaviours,
becoming more transmissible,' he said. 'With that changing behaviour,
changing your measures will be very important.
'When we talk about the zero-Covid strategy, we don't think it's
sustainable.' He added: 'Considering the behaviour of the virus I think
a shift [in China's strategy] will be very important.'
The WHO had previously been slammed as too 'China-centric' during the
pandemic and was accused of failing to publicly challenge Chinese
misinformation in early 2020.
Chinese censors have already censored Dr Tedros' comments, with searches
for the hashtags 'Tedros' and 'WHO' on the popular Weibo social media
platform displaying no results.
Users of the WeChat app have also been unable to share articles posted
on an official United Nations health agency's account.
Official Chinese modelling used to justify sticking to Zero Covid has
warned that ditching it now would unleash a 'tsunami' of infections and
kill 1.6million people this summer.
He said: 'One of the issues is that it’s only one component in
decision-making. So the epidemiological model is only one component and
I wondered and I worried that we’d had too much weight.'
There was an 'enormous economic impact' as well as harm to mental health >>from lockdowns, which saw people unable to mix outside their household,
schools close and mandatory working from home.
He said they were left out because the link between Covid cases and
damage to the economy was 'really unclear'.
And the social and psychological impact of the restrictions are 'still
not clear' and were 'certainly not clear ahead of time', Professor
Edmunds said.
He added: 'So these things were not included. And I actually think in
many respects it was a great failure of health economics to not really
contribute to this field during the epidemic.'
Yet dozens of scientists warned throughout the pandemic about the toll
of lockdowns and restrictions on mental and physical health, as well as
the economy.
Professor Edmunds noted that Covid models fail to include factors that
are 'unknowable at the time' such as the severity of Omicron when it
emerged.
During the winter Omicron wave, SAGE models did not take account of the
variant's reduced severity, despite real-world data from South Africa
showing the strain caused milder illness.
He also noted that it is not possible to accurately predict how the
public will act in an outbreak.
Professor Edmunds has previously hit out at the Government for not going
into lockdowns earlier and easing restrictions too quickly, including
the scrapping of mandatory self-isolation.
He was one of the leading scientific voices when the first lockdown was
imposed in early 2020.
Detailing the response to the first wave, Professor Edmunds said: 'We
looked at different interventions and came out with truly eye watering,
very scary results, in terms of deaths, perhaps 300 to 4,000 [daily]
deaths in the UK alone if we just let the epidemic run its course.
'That’s of course without changing behaviour.
'Probably, the individual would have changed their behaviour anyway. But
huge numbers of deaths, huge numbers of intensive care beds usage.'
But Professor Edmunds said there are questions around how much modelling
helped in the UK's initial response, as the UK brought in the
stay-at-home order later than other nations.
He said: 'It certainly didn’t help us move very fast here and, in fact,
I wonder whether because we had these tools and policymakers could ask
us questions — "what about if we did this and what about if we did that" >> — that that might have actually contributed to us actually making a
decision quite slowly.
'And in fact the speed of that lockdown was certainly the biggest
contributing factor to total numbers of deaths in the first wave.'
SAGE scientists have previously claimed their official projections have
not come to fruition due to behavioural changes among the population,
who cut their contacts when cases are on the rise, as well as high
levels of immunity following multiple waves.
The models have come under fire from other experts, who have criticised
SAGE for failing to talk to sociologist and economists when doing their
modelling, meaning they failed to incorporate 'things other people know
about'.
Professor Graham Medley, who chairs Spi-M, a modelling group that feeds
into SAGE, admitted modelling has failed to reflect the reality of how
waves unfold because they do not factor in behaviour changes, one of the
Government's chief pandemic advisers has admitted.
'The epidemic is dynamic,' he said. 'People's responses to the situation
in March 2020 were very different to those in November 2020 and very
different again in January 2021.'
Professor Medley, based at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine, added: 'The modelling is there to understand the process and
what's going on. We know we cannot accurately predict the numbers but we
can give insight into the processes that determine the outcomes.'
Professor Edmunds echoed his comments at the conference yesterday,
noting it is 'not currently possible' to accurately take people's
behaviours into account in scientific models.
The only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving lives, in
the U.K. & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://tinyurl.com/ConvinceItForward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage mutations and others like the Omicron, Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota,
Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations combining via
slip-RNA-replication to form hybrids like
http://tinyurl.com/Deltamicron that may render current COVID vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://tinyurl.com/RapidOmicronTest
) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10804993/SAGE-models-scary-held-weight-says-lockdown-architect-them.html
SAGE models were too 'scary' and held too much weight... says lockdown >architect behind them! No10 Covid expert admits death forecasts were
'eye watering' and should have considered economy
Professor John Edmunds said Covid models were only supposed to be 'one >component' of decision-making
He accepted models failed to account for the economic and health harms
that Covid lockdowns caused
SAGE member admitted these harms 'in principle' could have been factored
in 'but in practice they were not'
By EMILY CRAIG HEALTH REPORTER FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 11:20 EDT, 11 May 2022 | UPDATED: 12:59 EDT, 11 May 2022
575
shares
487
View comments
Professor John Edmunds (pictured), a SAGE modeller, said scientists' >projections of Covid infections, hospitalisations and deaths was only
'one component' of decision-making but were leaned on too much by ministers >+5
View gallery
Professor John Edmunds (pictured), a SAGE modeller, said scientists' >projections of Covid infections, hospitalisations and deaths was only
'one component' of decision-making but were leaned on too much by ministers
Britain relied too much on 'very scary' SAGE models to decide on
lockdowns, according to the man behind some of those very projections.
Just months after SAGE predicted 6,000 deaths per day and called for a >Christmas lockdown in response to Omicron, Professor John Edmunds said
the models were only supposed to be 'one component' of decision-making
but were leaned on too much by ministers.
He accepted the models failed to account for the economic harm and the >knock-on health effects that lockdowns caused.
Professor Edmunds admitted that these harms 'in principle' could have
been factored into models 'but in practice they were not'.
His remarks come as Britons face the harsh reality of two years' of
shutting down the economy and health service, with the NHS grappling a >backlog crisis that has seen one in nine people in England stuck on an
NHS waiting list for treatment and inflation at its highest point in 30 >years.
The epidemiologist, who was among the most outspoken members of SAGE,
said some of the death projections in the model were 'truly eye-watering'.
Speaking at a medical conference on Tuesday, he said: 'The
epidemiological model is only one component [of decision-making] and I >wondered and I worried that we’d had too much weight.'
READ MORE
He added: 'There is of course an enormous economic impact from many of
the interventions and other indirect impacts on psychological health and
so on. Now these in principle could be included but in practice they
were not.'
Professor Edmunds called for the first lockdown to be extended in summer >2021, warning Britain was 'taking a risk' by unlocking while still
logging 8,000 cases per day and that the decision was 'clearly' political.
And he warned against easing the third national lockdown in early 2021, >warning it would be a 'disaster' and put 'enormous pressure' on the
health service.
Professor Edmunds' team at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical
Medicine were among four modelling groups that fed into Government >recommendations.
Professor Neil Ferguson - dubbed Professor Lockdown for his gloomy
forecasts - worked within another modelling team at Imperial College
London.
The chair of the SPI-M modelling group has previously admitted the
groups did not consider optimistic scenarios because 'that doesn't get >decisions made'.
SAGE's modelling team at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine presented projections on infections (purple), hospitalisations
(red) and deaths (black) under different scenarios between now and
August 2022. The top graph shows hospital admissions from the beginning
from the pandemic. They estimated there could be 10,400 hospitalisations
in England per day at the peak of the outbreak in February in a
worst-case scenario (far right red graph), if Omicron escapes immunity
from vaccines and previous infection and the boosters have a low
efficacy. They assumed that Omicron will continue to grow exponentially
even under Plan B curbs, two jabs offer just 50 per cent protection
against severe disease from the mutant strain and boosters just 80 per cent >+5
View gallery
SAGE's modelling team at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine presented projections on infections (purple), hospitalisations
(red) and deaths (black) under different scenarios between now and
August 2022. The top graph shows hospital admissions from the beginning
from the pandemic. They estimated there could be 10,400 hospitalisations
in England per day at the peak of the outbreak in February in a
worst-case scenario (far right red graph), if Omicron escapes immunity
from vaccines and previous infection and the boosters have a low
efficacy. They assumed that Omicron will continue to grow exponentially
even under Plan B curbs, two jabs offer just 50 per cent protection
against severe disease from the mutant strain and boosters just 80 per cent
Imperial College London modelling from March 2020 showed Covid
restrictions individually were insufficient to bring down virus >hospitalisations to a level that hospitals could cope with
+5
View gallery
Imperial College London modelling from March 2020 showed Covid
restrictions individually were insufficient to bring down virus >hospitalisations to a level that hospitals could cope with
Warwick University scientists calculated there would be 6,000 deaths a
day if Plan B alone remains implemented and there is 'extreme pressure'
on the NHS. The graph shows death estimates if Plan B has low
effectiveness (top row of graphs) to high effectiveness (bottom row),
while the columns show death projections based on Omicron's severity
(low to high, left to right)
+5
View gallery
Warwick University scientists calculated there would be 6,000 deaths a
day if Plan B alone remains implemented and there is 'extreme pressure'
on the NHS. The graph shows death estimates if Plan B has low
effectiveness (top row of graphs) to high effectiveness (bottom row),
while the columns show death projections based on Omicron's severity
(low to high, left to right)
RELATED ARTICLES
Previous
1
Next
Children grow faster during the school year: Year 1s gain...
'How on earth would this help?' GPs vote AGAINST surgeries...
Frozen testicular tissue can still make sperm after 2...
Teenager is so allergic to water she can't CRY or SHOWER due...
New treatment offers hope for asbestos cancer patients that...
Why a black filter is safer than a flat white... but only if...
SHARE THIS ARTICLE
Share
575 shares
Most recently, in the winter Omicron surge, the teams warned that daily >hospitalisations could reach 10,000 — more than four times higher than
actual peak of around 2,400. Deaths peaked 20-times lower than the
experts' worst-case scenario.
Ahead of Freedom Day last July, SAGE modelling suggested there could be >another 200,000 UK deaths in the year June 2022 in a worst-case
scenario, which was quickly disputed by other scientists who said it >underestimated the power of the vaccines.
And ahead of the winter 2020 surge, they warned deaths could hit 4,000
per day. A peak of 1,820 was logged.
Speaking at the European Society for Paediatric Infectious Diseases 40th >annual conference, which is taking place in Athens this week, Professor >Edmunds admitted there are weaknesses to scientific models.
WHO chief slams China's for its 'unsustainable' zero Covid policy
The head of the World Health Organization has finally criticised China's
Zero Covid strategy and urged it to change its policy, as millions in >Shanghai enter their seventh and most brutal week of lockdown yet.
In a rare rebuke of the Communist party, which is one of the biggest >financial contributors to the health agency, WHO director-general Tedros >Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the strategy was unsustainable.
'As we all know, the virus is evolving, changing its behaviours,
becoming more transmissible,' he said. 'With that changing behaviour, >changing your measures will be very important.
'When we talk about the zero-Covid strategy, we don't think it's >sustainable.' He added: 'Considering the behaviour of the virus I think
a shift [in China's strategy] will be very important.'
The WHO had previously been slammed as too 'China-centric' during the >pandemic and was accused of failing to publicly challenge Chinese >misinformation in early 2020.
Chinese censors have already censored Dr Tedros' comments, with searches
for the hashtags 'Tedros' and 'WHO' on the popular Weibo social media >platform displaying no results.
Users of the WeChat app have also been unable to share articles posted
on an official United Nations health agency's account.
Official Chinese modelling used to justify sticking to Zero Covid has
warned that ditching it now would unleash a 'tsunami' of infections and
kill 1.6million people this summer.
He said: 'One of the issues is that it’s only one component in >decision-making. So the epidemiological model is only one component and
I wondered and I worried that we’d had too much weight.'
There was an 'enormous economic impact' as well as harm to mental health
from lockdowns, which saw people unable to mix outside their household, >schools close and mandatory working from home.
He said they were left out because the link between Covid cases and
damage to the economy was 'really unclear'.
And the social and psychological impact of the restrictions are 'still
not clear' and were 'certainly not clear ahead of time', Professor
Edmunds said.
He added: 'So these things were not included. And I actually think in
many respects it was a great failure of health economics to not really >contribute to this field during the epidemic.'
Yet dozens of scientists warned throughout the pandemic about the toll
of lockdowns and restrictions on mental and physical health, as well as
the economy.
Professor Edmunds noted that Covid models fail to include factors that
are 'unknowable at the time' such as the severity of Omicron when it
emerged.
During the winter Omicron wave, SAGE models did not take account of the >variant's reduced severity, despite real-world data from South Africa
showing the strain caused milder illness.
He also noted that it is not possible to accurately predict how the
public will act in an outbreak.
Professor Edmunds has previously hit out at the Government for not going
into lockdowns earlier and easing restrictions too quickly, including
the scrapping of mandatory self-isolation.
He was one of the leading scientific voices when the first lockdown was >imposed in early 2020.
Detailing the response to the first wave, Professor Edmunds said: 'We
looked at different interventions and came out with truly eye watering,
very scary results, in terms of deaths, perhaps 300 to 4,000 [daily]
deaths in the UK alone if we just let the epidemic run its course.
'That’s of course without changing behaviour.
'Probably, the individual would have changed their behaviour anyway. But
huge numbers of deaths, huge numbers of intensive care beds usage.'
But Professor Edmunds said there are questions around how much modelling >helped in the UK's initial response, as the UK brought in the
stay-at-home order later than other nations.
He said: 'It certainly didn’t help us move very fast here and, in fact,
I wonder whether because we had these tools and policymakers could ask
us questions — "what about if we did this and what about if we did that"
— that that might have actually contributed to us actually making a
decision quite slowly.
'And in fact the speed of that lockdown was certainly the biggest >contributing factor to total numbers of deaths in the first wave.'
SAGE scientists have previously claimed their official projections have
not come to fruition due to behavioural changes among the population,
who cut their contacts when cases are on the rise, as well as high
levels of immunity following multiple waves.
The models have come under fire from other experts, who have criticised
SAGE for failing to talk to sociologist and economists when doing their >modelling, meaning they failed to incorporate 'things other people know >about'.
Professor Graham Medley, who chairs Spi-M, a modelling group that feeds
into SAGE, admitted modelling has failed to reflect the reality of how
waves unfold because they do not factor in behaviour changes, one of the >Government's chief pandemic advisers has admitted.
'The epidemic is dynamic,' he said. 'People's responses to the situation
in March 2020 were very different to those in November 2020 and very >different again in January 2021.'
Professor Medley, based at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical >Medicine, added: 'The modelling is there to understand the process and
what's going on. We know we cannot accurately predict the numbers but we
can give insight into the processes that determine the outcomes.'
Professor Edmunds echoed his comments at the conference yesterday,
noting it is 'not currently possible' to accurately take people's
behaviours into account in scientific models.
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Michael Ejercito wrote:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10804993/SAGE-models-scary-held-weight-says-lockdown-architect-them.html
SAGE models were too 'scary' and held too much weight... says lockdown
architect behind them! No10 Covid expert admits death forecasts were
'eye watering' and should have considered economy
Professor John Edmunds said Covid models were only supposed to be 'one
component' of decision-making
He accepted models failed to account for the economic and health harms
that Covid lockdowns caused
SAGE member admitted these harms 'in principle' could have been factored >>> in 'but in practice they were not'
By EMILY CRAIG HEALTH REPORTER FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 11:20 EDT, 11 May 2022 | UPDATED: 12:59 EDT, 11 May 2022
575
shares
487
View comments
Professor John Edmunds (pictured), a SAGE modeller, said scientists'
projections of Covid infections, hospitalisations and deaths was only
'one component' of decision-making but were leaned on too much by ministers >>> +5
View gallery
Professor John Edmunds (pictured), a SAGE modeller, said scientists'
projections of Covid infections, hospitalisations and deaths was only
'one component' of decision-making but were leaned on too much by ministers >>>
Britain relied too much on 'very scary' SAGE models to decide on
lockdowns, according to the man behind some of those very projections.
Just months after SAGE predicted 6,000 deaths per day and called for a
Christmas lockdown in response to Omicron, Professor John Edmunds said
the models were only supposed to be 'one component' of decision-making
but were leaned on too much by ministers.
He accepted the models failed to account for the economic harm and the
knock-on health effects that lockdowns caused.
Professor Edmunds admitted that these harms 'in principle' could have
been factored into models 'but in practice they were not'.
His remarks come as Britons face the harsh reality of two years' of
shutting down the economy and health service, with the NHS grappling a
backlog crisis that has seen one in nine people in England stuck on an
NHS waiting list for treatment and inflation at its highest point in 30
years.
The epidemiologist, who was among the most outspoken members of SAGE,
said some of the death projections in the model were 'truly eye-watering'. >>>
Speaking at a medical conference on Tuesday, he said: 'The
epidemiological model is only one component [of decision-making] and I
wondered and I worried that we’d had too much weight.'
READ MORE
He added: 'There is of course an enormous economic impact from many of
the interventions and other indirect impacts on psychological health and >>> so on. Now these in principle could be included but in practice they
were not.'
Professor Edmunds called for the first lockdown to be extended in summer >>> 2021, warning Britain was 'taking a risk' by unlocking while still
logging 8,000 cases per day and that the decision was 'clearly' political. >>>
And he warned against easing the third national lockdown in early 2021,
warning it would be a 'disaster' and put 'enormous pressure' on the
health service.
Professor Edmunds' team at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical
Medicine were among four modelling groups that fed into Government
recommendations.
Professor Neil Ferguson - dubbed Professor Lockdown for his gloomy
forecasts - worked within another modelling team at Imperial College
London.
The chair of the SPI-M modelling group has previously admitted the
groups did not consider optimistic scenarios because 'that doesn't get
decisions made'.
SAGE's modelling team at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine presented projections on infections (purple), hospitalisations
(red) and deaths (black) under different scenarios between now and
August 2022. The top graph shows hospital admissions from the beginning >>>from the pandemic. They estimated there could be 10,400 hospitalisations
in England per day at the peak of the outbreak in February in a
worst-case scenario (far right red graph), if Omicron escapes immunity >>>from vaccines and previous infection and the boosters have a low
efficacy. They assumed that Omicron will continue to grow exponentially
even under Plan B curbs, two jabs offer just 50 per cent protection
against severe disease from the mutant strain and boosters just 80 per cent >>> +5
View gallery
SAGE's modelling team at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine presented projections on infections (purple), hospitalisations
(red) and deaths (black) under different scenarios between now and
August 2022. The top graph shows hospital admissions from the beginning >>>from the pandemic. They estimated there could be 10,400 hospitalisations
in England per day at the peak of the outbreak in February in a
worst-case scenario (far right red graph), if Omicron escapes immunity >>>from vaccines and previous infection and the boosters have a low
efficacy. They assumed that Omicron will continue to grow exponentially
even under Plan B curbs, two jabs offer just 50 per cent protection
against severe disease from the mutant strain and boosters just 80 per cent >>>
Imperial College London modelling from March 2020 showed Covid
restrictions individually were insufficient to bring down virus
hospitalisations to a level that hospitals could cope with
+5
View gallery
Imperial College London modelling from March 2020 showed Covid
restrictions individually were insufficient to bring down virus
hospitalisations to a level that hospitals could cope with
Warwick University scientists calculated there would be 6,000 deaths a
day if Plan B alone remains implemented and there is 'extreme pressure'
on the NHS. The graph shows death estimates if Plan B has low
effectiveness (top row of graphs) to high effectiveness (bottom row),
while the columns show death projections based on Omicron's severity
(low to high, left to right)
+5
View gallery
Warwick University scientists calculated there would be 6,000 deaths a
day if Plan B alone remains implemented and there is 'extreme pressure'
on the NHS. The graph shows death estimates if Plan B has low
effectiveness (top row of graphs) to high effectiveness (bottom row),
while the columns show death projections based on Omicron's severity
(low to high, left to right)
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Most recently, in the winter Omicron surge, the teams warned that daily
hospitalisations could reach 10,000 — more than four times higher than
actual peak of around 2,400. Deaths peaked 20-times lower than the
experts' worst-case scenario.
Ahead of Freedom Day last July, SAGE modelling suggested there could be
another 200,000 UK deaths in the year June 2022 in a worst-case
scenario, which was quickly disputed by other scientists who said it
underestimated the power of the vaccines.
And ahead of the winter 2020 surge, they warned deaths could hit 4,000
per day. A peak of 1,820 was logged.
Speaking at the European Society for Paediatric Infectious Diseases 40th >>> annual conference, which is taking place in Athens this week, Professor
Edmunds admitted there are weaknesses to scientific models.
WHO chief slams China's for its 'unsustainable' zero Covid policy
The head of the World Health Organization has finally criticised China's >>> Zero Covid strategy and urged it to change its policy, as millions in
Shanghai enter their seventh and most brutal week of lockdown yet.
In a rare rebuke of the Communist party, which is one of the biggest
financial contributors to the health agency, WHO director-general Tedros >>> Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the strategy was unsustainable.
'As we all know, the virus is evolving, changing its behaviours,
becoming more transmissible,' he said. 'With that changing behaviour,
changing your measures will be very important.
'When we talk about the zero-Covid strategy, we don't think it's
sustainable.' He added: 'Considering the behaviour of the virus I think
a shift [in China's strategy] will be very important.'
The WHO had previously been slammed as too 'China-centric' during the
pandemic and was accused of failing to publicly challenge Chinese
misinformation in early 2020.
Chinese censors have already censored Dr Tedros' comments, with searches >>> for the hashtags 'Tedros' and 'WHO' on the popular Weibo social media
platform displaying no results.
Users of the WeChat app have also been unable to share articles posted
on an official United Nations health agency's account.
Official Chinese modelling used to justify sticking to Zero Covid has
warned that ditching it now would unleash a 'tsunami' of infections and
kill 1.6million people this summer.
He said: 'One of the issues is that it’s only one component in
decision-making. So the epidemiological model is only one component and
I wondered and I worried that we’d had too much weight.'
There was an 'enormous economic impact' as well as harm to mental health >>>from lockdowns, which saw people unable to mix outside their household,
schools close and mandatory working from home.
He said they were left out because the link between Covid cases and
damage to the economy was 'really unclear'.
And the social and psychological impact of the restrictions are 'still
not clear' and were 'certainly not clear ahead of time', Professor
Edmunds said.
He added: 'So these things were not included. And I actually think in
many respects it was a great failure of health economics to not really
contribute to this field during the epidemic.'
Yet dozens of scientists warned throughout the pandemic about the toll
of lockdowns and restrictions on mental and physical health, as well as
the economy.
Professor Edmunds noted that Covid models fail to include factors that
are 'unknowable at the time' such as the severity of Omicron when it
emerged.
During the winter Omicron wave, SAGE models did not take account of the
variant's reduced severity, despite real-world data from South Africa
showing the strain caused milder illness.
He also noted that it is not possible to accurately predict how the
public will act in an outbreak.
Professor Edmunds has previously hit out at the Government for not going >>> into lockdowns earlier and easing restrictions too quickly, including
the scrapping of mandatory self-isolation.
He was one of the leading scientific voices when the first lockdown was
imposed in early 2020.
Detailing the response to the first wave, Professor Edmunds said: 'We
looked at different interventions and came out with truly eye watering,
very scary results, in terms of deaths, perhaps 300 to 4,000 [daily]
deaths in the UK alone if we just let the epidemic run its course.
'That’s of course without changing behaviour.
'Probably, the individual would have changed their behaviour anyway. But >>> huge numbers of deaths, huge numbers of intensive care beds usage.'
But Professor Edmunds said there are questions around how much modelling >>> helped in the UK's initial response, as the UK brought in the
stay-at-home order later than other nations.
He said: 'It certainly didn’t help us move very fast here and, in fact,
I wonder whether because we had these tools and policymakers could ask
us questions — "what about if we did this and what about if we did that" >>> — that that might have actually contributed to us actually making a
decision quite slowly.
'And in fact the speed of that lockdown was certainly the biggest
contributing factor to total numbers of deaths in the first wave.'
SAGE scientists have previously claimed their official projections have
not come to fruition due to behavioural changes among the population,
who cut their contacts when cases are on the rise, as well as high
levels of immunity following multiple waves.
The models have come under fire from other experts, who have criticised
SAGE for failing to talk to sociologist and economists when doing their
modelling, meaning they failed to incorporate 'things other people know
about'.
Professor Graham Medley, who chairs Spi-M, a modelling group that feeds
into SAGE, admitted modelling has failed to reflect the reality of how
waves unfold because they do not factor in behaviour changes, one of the >>> Government's chief pandemic advisers has admitted.
'The epidemic is dynamic,' he said. 'People's responses to the situation >>> in March 2020 were very different to those in November 2020 and very
different again in January 2021.'
Professor Medley, based at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine, added: 'The modelling is there to understand the process and
what's going on. We know we cannot accurately predict the numbers but we >>> can give insight into the processes that determine the outcomes.'
Professor Edmunds echoed his comments at the conference yesterday,
noting it is 'not currently possible' to accurately take people's
behaviours into account in scientific models.
The only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving lives, in
the U.K. & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://tinyurl.com/ConvinceItForward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage
mutations and others like the Omicron, Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota,
Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations combining via
slip-RNA-replication to form hybrids like
http://tinyurl.com/Deltamicron that may render current COVID
vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://tinyurl.com/RapidOmicronTest
) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
I am wonderfully hungry!
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Michael Ejercito wrote:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Veterans/comments/vt0j4h/army_cuts_off_more_than_60k_unvaccinated_guard/
Army Cuts Off More Than 60K Unvaccinated Guard and Reserve Soldiers from >>> Pay and Benefits
Share
Soldiers with the Oklahoma Army National Guard fire weapons over a
trench during a live-fire exercise at Fort Irwin, California.
Soldiers with the 45th Infantry Brigade Combat Team, Oklahoma Army
National Guard, fire weapons over a trench during a live-fire exercise
at the National Training Center in Fort Irwin, California, July 24,
2021. (Pfc. Emily White/Oklahoma Army National Guard photo)
6 Jul 2022
Military.com | By Steve Beynon
Some 40,000 National Guard and 22,000 Reserve soldiers who refused to be >>> vaccinated against COVID-19 are no longer allowed to participate in
their military duties, also effectively cutting them off from some of
their military benefits, Army officials announced Friday.
"Soldiers who refuse the vaccination order without an approved or
pending exemption request are subject to adverse administrative actions, >>> including flags, bars to service, and official reprimands," an Army
spokesperson said in a statement.
The move comes in the midst of the annual training season, during which
part-time soldiers are often ordered to serve from two weeks to a month
with their units for summer training exercises. Those training events
are usually critical for soldiers to sharpen their military skills and
for unit commanders to ensure their formations are ready to deploy if
needed.
Read Next: Space Force Launches New Intelligence Unit as Congress Voices >>> Concerns over Growth
If the soldiers continue to refuse the vaccine, the consequences could
be even more dire. "In the future, Soldiers who continue to refuse the
vaccination order without an exemption may be subject to additional
adverse administrative action, including separation," the Army
spokesperson said.
The long-term impact may mean many soldiers would be forced to leave, a
devastating outcome especially in the middle of a recruiting crisis as
Defense Department officials struggle to fill the ranks.
Soldiers will be allowed to come on duty and earn their pay in order to
be vaccinated or to take part in separation procedures.
"We're going to give every soldier every opportunity to get vaccinated
and continue their military career," Lt. Gen. Jon Jensen, director of
the Army Guard, told Military.com in an emailed statement. "We're not
giving up on anybody until the separation paperwork is signed and
completed."
The Army National Guard and Reserve deadline to receive the vaccine was
June 30, the latest of all the services, which required vaccination last >>> year. As of July 1, 13% of the Army Guard and 12% of the Reserve is
unvaccinated.
Part-time soldiers with a pending medical or religious exemption for the >>> vaccine may continue to train with their units and collect pay and
benefits. But exemption approvals are rare.
The vaccines have some rare side effects, including heart inflammation
that has affected at least 22 service members, according to a study from >>> the JAMA Network.
Only six Guard soldiers across all states and territories have permanent >>> medical exemptions for the vaccine, out of 53 who requested one,
according to Army data. No Reserve soldiers have a medical exemption.
No Guard or Reserve soldiers have been approved for a religious
exemption after nearly 3,000 requests. It is unclear what would qualify
a soldier for a waiver on religious grounds. Soldiers are required to be >>> innoculated against at least a dozen other ailments, including the flu
and hepatitis. And no major religious leaders have come out against
vaccines.
Army officials have stopped short of outlining a clear plan on removing
part-time soldiers, particularly Guardsmen, from service for continuing
to refuse the vaccine. As of now, Guardsmen are barred only from
attending federally funded drills and other training events, which make
up the bulk of their service. While Guardsmen technically serve under
their respective governors during their typical weekend duties, those
weekends are federally funded.
Multiple Republican governors have vowed not to kick out Guardsmen who
remain unvaccinated. It's unclear how easy it will be for the Defense
Department to enforce its decision to bar unvaccinated Guardsmen from
pay and benefits. On paper, the only thing an unvaccinated Guard soldier >>> is qualified for now is state active-duty orders, a comparatively rare
tool for a governor to activate their Guard for short-term emergencies
such as hurricane relief and responding to domestic disturbances.
SAD duties are usually short term. However, there are outliers such as
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who has used SAD orders lasting up to a year to
mobilize thousands of troops for missions on the U.S.-Mexico border.
But SAD duties do not qualify Guardsmen for federal benefits or
retirement -- effectively shutting them out of all of the military's
service incentives other than a paycheck.
Reserve soldiers fall exclusively under the federal government, possibly >>> making it easier to separate them from service.
As of Friday, 1,148 active-duty soldiers have been removed from the Army >>> for failing to comply with the vaccine mandate.
The only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving lives, in
the U.S. & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://tinyurl.com/ConvinceItForward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage
mutations and others like the Omicron, Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota,
Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations combining via
slip-RNA-replication to form hybrids like
http://tinyurl.com/Deltamicron that may render current COVID
vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://tinyurl.com/RapidOmicronTest
) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
I am wonderfully hungry!
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Michael Ejercito wrote:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11666223/Orthrus-makes-one-THREE-Covid-cases-area.html
The variant accounted for 36.1% of all Covid tests in England on January 14 >>> Highest number of cases recorded in Cornwall, Kirklees and Nottingham
Data is based on the genetic analysis of Covid tests submitted across
England
By EMILY STEARN, HEALTH REPORTER FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 11:22 EST, 23 January 2023 | UPDATED: 11:33 EST, 23 January 2023 >>>
281
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Covid variant 'Orthrus' is now behind over a third of all reported cases >>> in England, figures suggests.
Latest surveillance data shows how the strain, scientifically called
CH.1.1, has swept across England, seemingly accounting for all new
infections in the worst-hit regions.
Despite falling Covid cases nationally, its emergence has stoked
concerns among UK health chiefs that it could soon become the dominant
Covid variant.
Latest surveillance data shows how the strain, scientifically called
CH.1.1, has swept across England, accounting for all confirmed
infections analysed in the lab in the worst-hit regions
+3
View gallery
Latest surveillance data shows how the strain, scientifically called
CH.1.1, has swept across England, accounting for all confirmed
infections analysed in the lab in the worst-hit regions
Figures from the Sanger Institute, one of the UK's largest Covid
surveillance centres, shows 37.6 per cent of cases in the week to
January 14 were caused by CH.1.1 (shown in pink, bottom right corner)
Figures from the Sanger Institute, one of the UK's largest Covid
surveillance centres, shows 37.6 per cent of cases in the week to
January 14 were caused by CH.1.1 (shown in pink, bottom right corner)
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How dangerous is XBB.1.5? Is it already the dominant Covid strain? And
do the jabs still work? Everything you need to know about 'the Kraken'
as new variant starts sweeping the UK
A highly contagious Covid strain has emerged and is already behind one
in 25 cases in the UK, data suggests
A highly contagious Covid strain has emerged and is already behind one
in 25 cases in the UK, data suggests
ADVERTISEMENT
Data from the Sanger Institute, one of the UK's largest surveillance
sites tasked with analysing strains circulating in the UK, shows Orthrus >>> — nicknamed after a mythical two-headed dog — accounted for 36.1 per
cent of all Covid tests analysed in England on January 14, according to
the latest data available.
Maps suggest it now accounts for 100 per cent of genomic tests of the
virus in many regions.
These include East Devon, Darlington, Dover, Redcar and Cleveland,
Tendring, Mid Suffolk, North Kesteven, Nottingham, North Warwickshire,
Kirklees, Rotherham and Worcester.
It also accounted for 94 per cent of all cases in Cornwall, 75 per cent
in Cannock Chase and Test Valley and 67 per cent in Cheshire East.
Cornwall reported the highest number of estimated cases at 199 in the
week to January 14, while Kirklees recorded 142 and Nottingham, 91.
It shows how far the new variant has come since it was first spotted in
Blaby in the south west of Leicestershire on November 12.
But the Sanger Institute data is only based on hundreds of samples,
meaning it does not reflect the true picture.
The majority of Covid-positive samples are not sequenced by the lab,
which was analysing thousands every day during the height of the pandemic. >>>
The 'Orthrus' strain was deemed an official variant by the UK Health
Security Agency (UKHSA) in December.
CH.1.1 has mutations including P681R — which was also on the Delta
variant — and is thought to make it better attack cells and cause more
severe illness.
Scientists have also spotted R346T, which is thought to help the strain
fight-off antibodies that were generated in response to vaccination or
previous infection.
Thus, it's a Delta-Omicron chimerae/hybrid which is possibly a
realization of our worst-case scenario in the setting of both
increased virulence **and** increased contagiousness if there is also
resistance to anti-virals.
Figures from the Sanger Institute shows how cases of Covid-19 in England >>> have continued to fall through Autumn
Figures from the Sanger Institute shows how cases of Covid-19 in England >>> have continued to fall through Autumn
COVID: The number of people infected with Covid taking up hospital beds >>> in England fell 11 per cent from 9,414 in the week to January 4 to 8,404 >>> in the seven days to January 11. NHS data shows the figure peaked at
9,533 on December 29 and has since fallen 19 per cent to 7,743
+3
View gallery
COVID: The number of people infected with Covid taking up hospital beds >>> in England fell 11 per cent from 9,414 in the week to January 4 to 8,404 >>> in the seven days to January 11. NHS data shows the figure peaked at
9,533 on December 29 and has since fallen 19 per cent to 7,743
According to data from the Sanger Institute, the Omicron BA.5
sub-variant remained the dominant variant on January 14 and was behind
the majority of infections (56.8 per cent).
But another mutated version of Omicron — scientifically called XBB.1.5 — >>> is thought to be the most transmissible strain yet.
Nicknamed 'Kraken', after a mythical sea monster, it currently accounts
for 3.9 per cent of cases in England, according to the same data.
Scientists at the UKHSA revealed earlier this month that they expect one >>> of either the Orthrus or Kraken strains will become dominant in the
coming weeks.
'CH.1.1 and XBB.1.5 are currently the variants most likely to
predominate in the UK following BQ.1, unless further novel variants
arise,' the UKHSA said.
'It is plausible that XBB.1.5 will cause an increase in incidence after
the current wave, however it is currently too early to confirm this
trajectory,' they added.
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Concerns over the two new strains, combined with NHS winter pressures,
earlier this month triggered calls for the return of pandemic-era
restrictions like masks and working-from-home in a bid to ease pressure
on the ailing health service.
But the latest data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS)
suggests Covid cases have in fact plummeted in England.
According to the data published on Friday, nearly 1.5million people in
England were carrying the virus on any given day in the week to January 10. >>>
The figure is 33 per cent lower than the 2.2million who were thought to
be infected in the previous spell.
The data, based on the random swabbing of more than 80,000 Brits,
suggests just one in 40 people in England (2.6 per cent) were infected
with Covid.
Levels were highest in the South West, East of England and the North
East, while London, the South East and North West had the lowest Covid
rates, ONS data suggests.
The only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving lives, in
the UK & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19
) finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://tinyurl.com/ConvinceItForward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage
mutations and others like the Omicron, Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota,
Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations combining via
slip-RNA-replication to form hybrids like
http://tinyurl.com/Deltamicron that may render current COVID
vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://tinyurl.com/RapidOmicronTest
) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
I am wonderfully hungry!
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Michael Ejercito wrote:
https://archive.ph/ZQgqXWhile COVID-19 has been detected in the wild deer populations in the
Fear we go again! UK health officials including 'Professor Lockdown'
begin Covid-style 'worst-case scenario' planning for if bird flu becomes >>> transmissible in humans - as girl, 11, dies and TWELVE more people are
feared infected in Cambodia
Scientists are modelling how an outbreak of avian flu could sweep the UK >>> Only one infection has been spotted in a Brit since outbreak began in 2021 >>> By EMILY CRAIG SENIOR HEALTH REPORTER FOR MAILONLINE
UPDATED: 20:32 EST, 23 February 2023
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A dozen people in Cambodia are suspected of being infected with the H5N1 >>> bird flu strain in the same province where an 11-year-old girl died on
Wednesday - raising fears the virus may be spreading from human to human >>> for the first time in decades.
Scientists are modelling how a worst-case scenario bird flu outbreak
could sweep the UK if the virus spread to humans.
The Khmer Times – a local newspaper – reported that the suspected
patients have all been tested for the virus and are waiting on lab
confirmation, four of whom are symptomatic.
Officials at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said they are
developing 'scenarios of early human transmission' to help with
preparedness, planning and improvements to surveillance.
While only one infection has been spotted in Britain since the record
bird flu outbreak began in October 2021, officials begin modelling
outbreaks in people when it deems the risk level is three out of five –
which it is currently.
This picture released by Cambodia's Communicable Disease Control
Department (CDCD) on February 23, 2023, shows villagers posing with
posters about H5N1 virus threats, in Prey Veng province - where a girl
died from the virus this week and 12 more are suspected to have been
infected
+16
View gallery
This picture released by Cambodia's Communicable Disease Control
Department (CDCD) on February 23, 2023, shows villagers posing with
posters about H5N1 virus threats, in Prey Veng province - where a girl
died from the virus this week and 12 more are suspected to have been
infected
Among those working on the models is Professor Neil Ferguson (pictured), >>> an epidemiologist whose modelling of the Covid outbreak led the UK
Government to impose the first lockdown
+16
View gallery
Among those working on the models is Professor Neil Ferguson
(pictured), an epidemiologist whose modelling of the Covid outbreak led
the UK Government to impose the first lockdown
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Dr Arturo Casadevall, an immunologist at Johns Hopkins, reacted to the
suspected outbreak in Cambodia. He wrote on Twitter: 'Key information is >>> whether the 12 infected people obtained it from a bird source or from
human-to-human transmission, which would be very worrisome.'
Dr Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist and Chief of COVID Task Force at
the New England Complex Systems Institute, tweeted: 'Hope this wasn’t
human to human, but I’m now getting to be worried,'
H5N1 was first detected in chickens in Scotland in 1959, and again in
China and Hong Kong in 1996. It first was detected in humans in 1997.
Human-to-human transmission of H5N1 is incredibly rare, but not
impossible. In 1997, officials confirmed 18 H5N1 cases in Hong Kong,
some of which were acquired through human-to-human transmission. The
outbreak stayed relatively small, though. And did not spiral into a
massive issue at either the local or global level.
This recent outbreak has caused particular concern. More than 15million
domesticated birds, and countless wild animals, have been struck down by >>> the virus.
There is nothing to be done that can prevent the spread among wild
birds, but officials are working to keep domesticated populations away >>>from them. In the UK, all farmed chickens are now required to stay indoors. >>> Among those working on the models is Professor Neil Ferguson, an
epidemiologist whose modelling of the Covid outbreak led the UK
Government to impose the first lockdown.
+16
View gallery
The above map shows locations where there is a growing risk of a
zoonotic virus outbreak. Dr Jennifer Nuzzo, a public health expert at
Brown University in Rhode Island, warned that Texas was also a potential >>> epicenter
Pictured: A National Trust ranger clears deceased birds from Staple
Island in July 2022
+16
View gallery
Pictured: A National Trust ranger clears deceased birds from Staple
Island in July 2022
The UKHSA graph shows the number of bird flu cases, by region in
England, confirmed among kept and wild birds between October 2022 and
February 2023
+16
View gallery
The UKHSA graph shows the number of bird flu cases, by region in
England, confirmed among kept and wild birds between October 2022 and
February 2023
+16
View gallery
A young girl in Cambodia has died from the H5N1 bird flu. She was
infected with the virus last week. She is the nation's first case since
2014 (file photo)
Bird flu cases detected in poultry facilities, by county, in 2022 and 2023 >>> Bird flu cases detected in wild birds, by county, in 2022 and 2023
The above map shows bird flu cases detected in poultry facilities (left) >>> and in wild birds (right) in 2022 and 2023. The WHO has warned the world >>> to prepare for a potential bird flu pandemic saying the virus could jump >>> to humans
Before the cases in Cambodia, only one case of H5N1 in humans had been
detected this year. Cases in humans have been rare in recent years
+16
View gallery
Before the cases in Cambodia, only one case of H5N1 in humans had been
detected this year. Cases in humans have been rare in recent years
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In an update today, the UKHSA confirmed that its Avian Influenza
Technical Group – which includes Professor Ferguson and around two dozen >>> other experts – calculated how an outbreak could sweep the UK.
Under a 'mild scenario', the scientists estimated that one in 400 people >>> who caught bird flu would die due to the virus.
This infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.25 per cent is similar to
Covid's in mid-2021 and the 2009 bird flu outbreak.
But under a 'more severe scenario', the virus would be fatal among one
in 40 people who became infected (an IFR of 2.5 per cent).
However, the World Health Organization warns that of the 868 human H5N1
cases reported to it over the last two decades, 456 - just over half -
have been fatal.
Bird flu outbreak: Everything you need to know
What is it?
Avian flu is an infectious type of influenza that spreads among birds.
In rare cases, it can be transmitted to humans through close contact
with a dead or alive infected bird.
This includes touching infected birds, their droppings or bedding.
People can also catch bird flu if they kill or prepare infected poultry
for eating.
Wild birds are carriers, especially through migration.
As they cluster together to breed, the virus spreads rapidly and is then >>> carried to other parts of the globe.
New strains tend to appear first in Asia, from where more than 60
species of shore birds, waders and waterfowl head off to Alaska to breed >>> and mix with migratory birds from the US. Others go west and infect
European species.
What strain is currently spreading?
H5N1.
So far the new virus has been detected in some 80million birds and
poultry globally since September 2021 — double the previous record the
year before.
Not only is the virus spreading at speed, it is also killing at an
unprecedented level, leading some experts to say this is the deadliest
variant so far.
Millions of chickens and turkeys in the UK have been culled or put into
lockdown, affecting the availability of Christmas turkey and free-range
eggs.
Can it infect people?
Yes, but only 860 human cases have been reported to the World Health
Organization since 2003.
The risk to people has been deemed 'low'.
But people are strongly urged not to touch sick or dead birds because
the virus is lethal, killing 56 per cent of people it does manage to infect.
ADVERTISEMENT
The Avian Influenza Technical Group noted that while other H5N1
outbreaks have had 'much higher fatality estimates', these did not
involve sustained human-to-human transmission, so are not 'directly
comparable'.
Unlike the Covid pandemic, the scientists said that a bird flu outbreak
could be more deadly among the young, rather than the elderly – as was
seen in the 1918 flu pandemic.
Professor Ferguson has admitted he became 'something of a marmite
figure' and that he 'made mistakes' and 'oversimplified things' during
the pandemic.
Modelling from the epidemiologist and his colleagues at Imperial College >>> London in March 2020 predicted the NHS would be overwhelmed within weeks >>> and a terrible death toll would arise if nothing was done to stop the
spread of the disease.
Professor Ferguson has said while it had been challenging for most
Western governments to act in a timely manner, the science throughout
the crisis 'had basically been right'.
In light of the modelling, the UKHSA said it would continue to
investigate how it could detect cases if there was an outbreak among people.
This could see Covid-style lateral flow tests rolled out to test Brits
for bird flu, it said.
The UKHSA said it is investigating whether the swabs, which provided
results in as little as 15 minutes during the Covid pandemic, would
detect the circulating deadly H5N1 strain.
It is also probing whether a blood test could be developed that detects
antibodies against the virus.
Genetic mutations in positive samples are also being monitored for any
signal that the virus is mutating to become a bigger risk to people.
It will 'remain vigilant' over whether the 'constantly' evolving virus,
which kills over half of those it infects, has gained mutations that may >>> better allow it spread among people.
The UKHSA also noted that the 'very high levels' of transmission in wild >>> birds presents a 'constant risk'.
The agency noted that there is 'no evidence so far that the virus is
getting better at infecting humans or other mammals' and data suggests
H5N1 'does not pass easily to people'.
But it warned there is an 'increased chance' of people coming into
contact with the virus due to the sky-high rates among birds.
It urged Brits to avoid contact with sick or dead wild birds in parks
and waterways and wash their hands after feeding wild birds, to reduce
the risk of exposure to bird flu.
Dr Meera Chand, incident director for avian influenza at the UKHSA,
said: 'The latest evidence suggests that the avian influenza viruses
we're seeing circulating in birds do not currently spread easily to people. >>> 'However, viruses constantly evolve, and we remain vigilant for any
evidence of changing risk to the population, as well as working with
partners to address gaps in the scientific evidence.'
The weekly update also revealed that 2,310 Brits have been monitored by
UKHSA officials between October 1 2022 and February 14 after being
exposed to bird flu.
Imperial College London published a paper in March 2020 on the potential >>> impact of coronavirus. It weighed up options on how a lockdown could
reduce demand on hospitals
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Imperial College London published a paper in March 2020 on the potential >>> impact of coronavirus. It weighed up options on how a lockdown could
reduce demand on hospitals
The UKHSA graph shows the number of cases of the H5N1 bird flu strain
detected among mammals, such as foxes and otters, between October 2021
and January 2023 in England (light blue), Scotland (dark blue) and Wales >>> (green)
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The UKHSA graph shows the number of cases of the H5N1 bird flu strain
detected among mammals, such as foxes and otters, between October 2021
and January 2023 in England (light blue), Scotland (dark blue) and Wales >>> (green)
The graph, from the UKHSA, displays cases of H5N1 among mammals
worldwide between January 2020 and February 2023
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The graph, from the UKHSA, displays cases of H5N1 among mammals
worldwide between January 2020 and February 2023
The UKHSA graphic shows the number of people exposed to bird flu between >>> October 2022 and February 2023, by region in England
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The UKHSA graphic shows the number of people exposed to bird flu between >>> October 2022 and February 2023, by region in England
But samples taken from those who developed any cold or flu-like symptoms >>> in the three weeks after coming into contact with the virus revealed
none had become infected.
The UK's avian flu outbreak began in October 2021, after health chiefs
spotted the virus was still spreading among birds after the spring and
summer months – when they usually decline.
Health chiefs have warned that the winter migration of wild birds is
likely to further hike avian flu transmission in the coming months. This >>> is because migrating birds can infect local kept and wild birds, driving >>> up cases.
As well as record cases in birds, the virus has also been spotted in
other animals, such as foxes, otters and seals in the UK, mink in Spain
and sea lions in Peru.
This sparked concern that the virus may be spreading between the
mammals, which would indicate it had picked up a troublesome mutation
that could, in theory, make it easier for humans to become infected.
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Nearly 300 confirmed cases of H5N1 have been detected among birds in
England since the current outbreak began in October 2021. However, the
true toll is thought to be much higher. The map shows the areas where
cases have been detected and where 3km (blue dots) and 10km (yellow
dots) protection zones have been imposed — meaning enhanced infection
control measures are in place among those who have birds
Pictured: A dead bird in Queens Park in Heywood, Rochdale, amid the
bird flu outbreak
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Pictured: A dead bird in Queens Park in Heywood, Rochdale, amid the
bird flu outbreak
Alan Gosling (pictured), a retired engineer in Devon, caught the virus
after his ducks, some of which lived inside his home, became infected.
No one else caught the virus
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Alan Gosling (pictured), a retired engineer in Devon, caught the virus
after his ducks, some of which lived inside his home, became infected.
No one else caught the virus
Further testing is still required to determine if mammals are
transmitting the virus, however.
But there has only been one case of a British person becoming infected
since the current outbreak began.
Alan Gosling, a retired engineer in Devon, caught the virus in early
2022 after his ducks, some of which lived inside his home, became infected. >>> Cambodian Health Minister Mam Bunheng warned that bird flu poses an
exceptionally high risk to children who may be feeding or collecting
eggs from domesticated poultry, playing with the birds or cleaning their >>> cages.
The virus can spread to humans when a person has an open wound exposed
to an infected bird. Usually, infections occur when a person is pecked
or clawed by a bird. Transmission can also occur from a dead bird to a
human.
America is still 'fundamentally unprepared' for zoonotic diseases
Harvard and NYU experts have described it as the greatest threat to
humankind and warn much of the world in unprepared
ADVERTISEMENT
World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom
Ghebreyesus said the agency still deems the risk of bird flu to humans
as low. 'But we cannot assume that will remain the case, and we must
prepare for any change in the status quo,' he said earlier this month.
He advised people not to touch dead or sick wild animals and for
countries to strengthen their surveillance of settings where people and
animals interact.
Cambodia had 56 human cases of H5N1 from 2003 through 2014, and 37 of
them were fatal, according to the World Health Organization.
Each person had samples were taken for analysis for a lab in Phnom Penh, >>> the nation's capital, around 40 miles west of the rural province of Prey >>> Veng, where the suspected cases were detected.
It is unclear whether this group of people had any interaction with the
11-year-old girl, or if they come from the same part of the province. It >>> is also unclear whether they had interactions with any birds that could
be carrying the virus.
More than 1.1million people live in Prey Veng, it is the third most
populous province in the country, and known to be densely populated.
Prey Veng is also were the girl who eventually died lived. She became
ill on February 16 and was sent to be treated at a hospital in the capital >>> She was diagnosed last Wednesday after suffering a fever up to 39C
(102F) with coughing and throat pain. She died shortly after her
diagnosis, the Health Ministry said in a statement Wednesday night.
There are no treatments designed specifically for humans infected with
bird flu, let alone H5N1. Those who fall ill are treated with regular
antiviral drugs such as Zanamivir and Peramivir.
In case of an outbreak, the US does have a stockpile of vaccines
designed to prevent infection from H5N1.
It is sold under the name Audenz and was approved in 2021 by the Food
and Drug Administration for people six months and older. It is a
two-dose vaccine.
Health officials have taken samples from a dead wild bird at a
conservation area near the Prey Veng girl's home, the ministry said in
another statement Thursday. It said teams in the area would also warn
residents about touching dead and sick birds.
Experts warn that the virus is adapting in ways that allow it to cause
outbreaks in other mammals - increasing the risk it could spread among
people.
In October, an outbreak of the bird flu ravaged a population of 52,000
mink at a farm in Spain.
Some of the critters were initially infected by eating meat from birds
that died while infected.
There were also signs of mink-to-mink spread of the flu, which is
unusual for a mammal population and signals a change to the virus.
In Peru, 716 sea lions were found to have died from the bird flu in
recent weeks. Local officials worry that the virus has also spread
between the animals - which are also mammals.
The world is suffering what has been described as the worst bird flu
outbreak ever recorded, with over 58million birds in the US alone having >>> been culled or killed by the virus over the past year.
Unlike usual spikes in bird flu that last months, this outbreak
sustained itself through the summer of 2022 and is spread almost
entirely by wild birds
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Unlike usual spikes in bird flu that last months, this outbreak
sustained itself through the summer of 2022 and is spread almost
entirely by wild birds
For the US poultry industry the battle has been deadliest in history.
The outbreak has ramped up pressure on the industry to protect its
flocks and forced them to kill millions of birds to avoid the deadly spread.
To protect their domesticated birds, farmers around the country have
installed extra protections from wild flocks, including installing
vibrating mechanisms in containers holding chicken feed to avoid worker
contamination.
The disease is so contagious that wind can carry bird droppings to a
barn vent causing the virus to circulate inside.
It can also be spread to commercial flocks by workers stepping on
wild-bird feces outside of a barn and spreading it inside with each step. >>> Some farms have installed motion-detecting alarms, known as 'sound
cannons', as well as bright laser systems to shoo away wild birds
without harming them.
The recent spread of the virus has lead to rampant inflation of both
chicken and egg prices in the US and across the world.
Federal officials also fear that the spring migration of birds could
also reignite spread of the deadly virus.
A Cambodian man carries dead chickens at a market in Phnom Penh - the
capital and most populous city of Cambodia
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View gallery
A Cambodian man carries dead chickens at a market in Phnom Penh - the
capital and most populous city of Cambodia
It comes as experts express greater fears of the threat of zoonotic
diseases spreading in America. Last week, experts at Harvard University, >>> in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and New York University, warned about the
risks of zoonotic transmission.
In an editorial, they accuse the US of being too obsessed with external
threats such as bioterrorism and lab leaks while failing to keep a close >>> eye on the risks in its own backyard.
They called for an overhaul of regulatory agencies, including the US
Department of Agriculture.
Experts have already warned that the next zoonotic outbreak could occur
in China — because of its wet food markets — and Rwanda and Brazil —
where urbanization and expanding agriculture are bringing people into
contact with wild animals they would previously have been separated from. >>> But they also warn that Texas — one of the world's leading producers of
meat — could also be a hotbed for new dangerous viruses.
In the piece, they urged: 'What is needed is not simply for agencies to
do their jobs better or to paper over the gaps, but a fundamental
restructuring of the way that human-animal interfaces are governed.
'A One Health approach, which NBS-22 claims as its guiding principle,
would take the health of other living things not merely as the
occasional means or obstacles to human health, but as continuous with it. >>> 'The first step in implementing such an approach would be to create a
high-level process for integrating the broken mosaic of multiple
agencies, with their unclear and sometimes competing mandates, into an
effective, comprehensive regime.'
Figures show 10billion animals were killed for meat in the US in 2022,
the highest number on record and up 204million in 2021.
The country is also a leading importer of live animals — which could
harbor diseases — bringing in about 200million annually according to
estimates.
There is also a large wild game market which raises about 40million
animals annually.
Scientists warned that infections could jump from animals to humans at
any stage in the meat supply chain — from the rearing facility right
through to slaughter and where it is consumed.
They warn there is a higher risk with live imported animals because
these come into the US with no health and safety checks on arrival,
meaning they could bring new diseases into the country.
There is also a higher risk with game animals, because these are not
sanitized or regulated before being eaten.
Evidence is mounting that the US is already facing a growing number of
animal-to-human infections.
The country recorded more animal-to-human infections in the second half
of the 20th century than any other country globally, the scientists said. >>
U.S., there hasn't been any reports of deer-to-human/hunter infections
yet. The worst-case scenario here is that the millions with long-COVID
have a terrible 100% CFR when H5N1 joins the on-going pandemic.
In the interim, the only *healthy* way to stop the on-going pandemic,
thereby saving lives, in the UK & elsewhere is by rapidly (
http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) finding out at any given moment,
including even while on-line, who among us are unwittingly contagious
(i.e pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic) in order to
http://WDJW.great-site.net/ConvinceItForward (John 15:12) for them to
call their doctor and self-quarantine per their doctor in hopes of
stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the best while
preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage mutations
and others like the Omicron, Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota, Lambda, Mu &
Delta lineage mutations combining via slip-RNA-replication to form
hybrids like http://tinyurl.com/Deltamicron that may render current
COVID vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://tinyurl.com/RapidOmicronTest
) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
I am wonderfully hungry!
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