http://archive.ph/dA63S
The zero-Covid approach got bad press, but it worked and it could
work again
Laura Spinney
The places that chose to pursue elimination suffered less overall. >Unfortunately, few had the determination to do so
A sign in front of UC Davis Medical Center.
Eighteen months into its No-Covid experiment, Davis, California, is
puzzled that other US towns havent followed suit. Photograph: Peter >Dasliva/EPA
Mon 28 Mar 2022 08.22 EDT
It was the alt-history, the policy that didnt get enacted. No-Covid, >zero-Covid or elimination aimed to stamp out community transmission of >Covid-19 in a given area, rather than just reduce it to manageable
levels. Most of the world eschewed it, and it got bad press from the
start. Only autocratic regimes could pull it off, one mantra went.
Countries like China and ah, New Zealand and, oops, that notorious
police state Davis in California.
There was something of the self-fulfilling prophecy about this. Many
people thought No-Covid was impossible, but the handful of places that >embraced it proved them wrong. Now that some of those places are
themselves shifting to a reduction or mitigation strategy, countries
that opted for mitigation from the beginning are enjoying a we told you
so moment. But No-Covids early champions had to shift in part because
other countries let the virus rip. Even if their strategy didnt remain
the optimal one, it bought them time to prepare others. Its important
that we remember that when the next pandemic sidles along.
The power of language is terrifying sometimes. We talk about pandemics >erupting Ive done it myself but sidling seems a more appropriate
verb for something that grows quietly in the dark before exploding into
the light. The concept of exponential growth is one we have trouble
grasping, yet grasping it empowers us. It means that for a time the
disease spread is limited and potentially controllable. It means that >explosive growth falls off rapidly once it is deprived of fuel. And it
means that not everybody has to pursue elimination for it to succeed
as long as a critical mass do.
Weve found one factor that predicts which countries best survive Covid >Thomas Hale
Read more
No-Covid was dogged by problems of definition. People confused
elimination with eradication, for example. Only one human disease,
smallpox, has been eradicated, but plenty have been eliminated. The UK
was measles-free until 2017, when partly, due to low vaccine uptake, it
lost that status. Elimination is not an unattainable dream, but it does >require a concerted effort. In the current pandemic, the word often
applied to such efforts was restrictions, as if the efforts themselves >deprived us of liberty. No. The virus deprives us of liberty; the
efforts preserve it. Thats why nobody in Davis is complaining, 18
months into their No-Covid experiment, and why theyre puzzled other US
towns havent followed suit.
Though lockdowns might have been necessary in the beginning, because we
had no other shields against the virus, they soon stopped being
synonymous with elimination. Cheap mass testing plus isolation of the >infected, ventilation, masking, distancing and importantly social
and financial support for those inconvenienced by these measures, became
the preferred tools, used most effectively in combination.
The claim that elimination exacerbates inequality is a red herring; it >doesnt, with the right support. A circulating virus certainly does, on
the other hand, by preferentially encountering gig workers, keeping kids
out of school, and closing mental health clinics.
Its true that some diseases are easier to eliminate than others. Many >western countries assumed that Covid would behave like flu, and decided
that elimination would be too difficult. China assumed that it would
behave like Sars, which it successfully beat 20 years ago. It actually >behaves a bit like both, but not exactly like either. Countries tended
to get the outcome they aimed for.
Last June, a study in The Lancet showed that those that chose
elimination over mitigation did a better job of protecting life, the
economy and civil liberties the hat-trick. But no country is an island
to a highly transmissible virus even those that are islands and the >emergence of Delta and Omicron variants of the Sars-CoV-2 virus,
combined with the rollout of vaccines that protect against severe
disease and death, was bound to change the calculus. Some who favoured >elimination previously now think it has outlived its usefulness.
New Zealand, for example, has switched to a mitigation strategy. >Epidemiologist Michael Baker expects his countrys high levels of
vaccination will protect it from a wave of hospitalisations and deaths
as Omicron sweeps the country. Hong Kong, which also pursued No-Covid
until recently, has tragically not avoided that fate, due to its
relatively low vaccination rates.
The lesson from Hong Kong is not that elimination doesnt work, its
that you need a plan B in case the context changes. Baker and economist >Donald Low, who has chronicled Hong Kongs experience, agree that
elimination was the right strategy for the first 18 months of the
pandemic. Baker stands by his analysis of December 2020 that,
Elimination might be the preferred strategy for responding to new
emerging infectious diseases with pandemic potential and moderate to
high severity, particularly while key parameters are being estimated.
What were learning about long Covid or post-Covid-19 condition as the >World Health Organization (WHO) now calls it only strengthens that
case, since its looking increasingly likely that countries that
tolerated high infection rates, including the UK, are facing a sizeable >burden of long-term disability. The vaccines do not stop transmission >completely, and by abandoning the non-pharmaceutical interventions that
do, those countries also increase the likelihood far from trivial, as >scientists highlighted again this month that a variant more severe
than Omicron or its stealth subvariant could arise.
These emerging facts demonstrate how pointless it is to cost
elimination, or any other containment strategy. How do you measure what
it has saved you? In speculative fiction terms, whats the counterfactual? >The right way to respond to an unknown disease is to fix a goal and work >towards it, adjusting your strategy as you learn. Because theres
another unknown in the equation, human determination, no response should
be ruled out initially. As Nelson Mandela said, and the WHO itself likes
to quote: Its only impossible until its done.
Laura Spinney is a science journalist and the author of Pale Rider: The >Spanish Flu of 1918 and How it Changed the World
Michael Ejercito wrote:
http://archive.ph/dA63S
The zero-Covid approach got bad press, but it worked and it could
work again
Laura Spinney
The places that chose to pursue elimination suffered less overall. >>Unfortunately, few had the determination to do so
A sign in front of UC Davis Medical Center.
Eighteen months into its No-Covid experiment, Davis, California, is >>puzzled that other US towns havent followed suit. Photograph: Peter >>Dasliva/EPA
Mon 28 Mar 2022 08.22 EDT
It was the alt-history, the policy that didnt get enacted. No-Covid, >>zero-Covid or elimination aimed to stamp out community transmission of >>Covid-19 in a given area, rather than just reduce it to manageable >>levels. Most of the world eschewed it, and it got bad press from the
start. Only autocratic regimes could pull it off, one mantra went. >>Countries like China and ah, New Zealand and, oops, that notorious
police state Davis in California.
There was something of the self-fulfilling prophecy about this. Many
people thought No-Covid was impossible, but the handful of places that >>embraced it proved them wrong. Now that some of those places are
themselves shifting to a reduction or mitigation strategy, countries
that opted for mitigation from the beginning are enjoying a we told you >>so moment. But No-Covids early champions had to shift in part because >>other countries let the virus rip. Even if their strategy didnt remain
the optimal one, it bought them time to prepare others. Its important
that we remember that when the next pandemic sidles along.
The power of language is terrifying sometimes. We talk about pandemics >>erupting Ive done it myself but sidling seems a more appropriate >>verb for something that grows quietly in the dark before exploding into
the light. The concept of exponential growth is one we have trouble >>grasping, yet grasping it empowers us. It means that for a time the
disease spread is limited and potentially controllable. It means that >>explosive growth falls off rapidly once it is deprived of fuel. And it >>means that not everybody has to pursue elimination for it to succeed
as long as a critical mass do.
Weve found one factor that predicts which countries best survive Covid >>Thomas Hale
Read more
No-Covid was dogged by problems of definition. People confused
elimination with eradication, for example. Only one human disease, >>smallpox, has been eradicated, but plenty have been eliminated. The UK
was measles-free until 2017, when partly, due to low vaccine uptake, it >>lost that status. Elimination is not an unattainable dream, but it does >>require a concerted effort. In the current pandemic, the word often
applied to such efforts was restrictions, as if the efforts themselves >>deprived us of liberty. No. The virus deprives us of liberty; the
efforts preserve it. Thats why nobody in Davis is complaining, 18
months into their No-Covid experiment, and why theyre puzzled other US >>towns havent followed suit.
Though lockdowns might have been necessary in the beginning, because we
had no other shields against the virus, they soon stopped being
synonymous with elimination. Cheap mass testing plus isolation of the >>infected, ventilation, masking, distancing and importantly social
and financial support for those inconvenienced by these measures, became >>the preferred tools, used most effectively in combination.
The claim that elimination exacerbates inequality is a red herring; it >>doesnt, with the right support. A circulating virus certainly does, on
the other hand, by preferentially encountering gig workers, keeping kids >>out of school, and closing mental health clinics.
Its true that some diseases are easier to eliminate than others. Many >>western countries assumed that Covid would behave like flu, and decided >>that elimination would be too difficult. China assumed that it would
behave like Sars, which it successfully beat 20 years ago. It actually >>behaves a bit like both, but not exactly like either. Countries tended
to get the outcome they aimed for.
Last June, a study in The Lancet showed that those that chose
elimination over mitigation did a better job of protecting life, the >>economy and civil liberties the hat-trick. But no country is an island
to a highly transmissible virus even those that are islands and the >>emergence of Delta and Omicron variants of the Sars-CoV-2 virus,
combined with the rollout of vaccines that protect against severe
disease and death, was bound to change the calculus. Some who favoured >>elimination previously now think it has outlived its usefulness.
New Zealand, for example, has switched to a mitigation strategy. >>Epidemiologist Michael Baker expects his countrys high levels of >>vaccination will protect it from a wave of hospitalisations and deaths
as Omicron sweeps the country. Hong Kong, which also pursued No-Covid
until recently, has tragically not avoided that fate, due to its
relatively low vaccination rates.
The lesson from Hong Kong is not that elimination doesnt work, its
that you need a plan B in case the context changes. Baker and economist >>Donald Low, who has chronicled Hong Kongs experience, agree that >>elimination was the right strategy for the first 18 months of the
pandemic. Baker stands by his analysis of December 2020 that,
Elimination might be the preferred strategy for responding to new
emerging infectious diseases with pandemic potential and moderate to
high severity, particularly while key parameters are being estimated.
What were learning about long Covid or post-Covid-19 condition as the >>World Health Organization (WHO) now calls it only strengthens that
case, since its looking increasingly likely that countries that
tolerated high infection rates, including the UK, are facing a sizeable >>burden of long-term disability. The vaccines do not stop transmission >>completely, and by abandoning the non-pharmaceutical interventions that
do, those countries also increase the likelihood far from trivial, as >>scientists highlighted again this month that a variant more severe
than Omicron or its stealth subvariant could arise.
These emerging facts demonstrate how pointless it is to cost
elimination, or any other containment strategy. How do you measure what
it has saved you? In speculative fiction terms, whats the counterfactual? >>The right way to respond to an unknown disease is to fix a goal and work >>towards it, adjusting your strategy as you learn. Because theres
another unknown in the equation, human determination, no response should
be ruled out initially. As Nelson Mandela said, and the WHO itself likes
to quote: Its only impossible until its done.
Laura Spinney is a science journalist and the author of Pale Rider: The >>Spanish Flu of 1918 and How it Changed the World
The only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving lives, in
the UK & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://tinyurl.com/ConvinceItForward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage >mutations and others like the Omicron, Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota,
Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations combining via
slip-RNA-replication to form hybrids like
http://tinyurl.com/Deltamicron that may render current COVID >vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://tinyurl.com/RapidOmicronTest
) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: The LORD says "Blessed are you who hunger now ..."
Shame on andrew, look at his red face.
He is trying to pull a fast one. His scripture bit is found among these:
'14 Bible verses about Spiritual Hunger'
Psalms
81:10 I am the LORD thy God, which brought thee out of the land of Egypt: >open thy mouth wide, and I will fill it.
Proverbs
13:25 The righteous has enough to satisfy his appetite, But the stomach of >the wicked is in need.
Joel
2:26 And ye shall eat in plenty, and be satisfied, and praise the name of
the LORD your God, that hath dealt wondrously with you: and my
people shall never be ashamed.
Psalms
107 For he satisfies the thirsty and fills the hungry with good things.
Acts
14:17 "Yet he did not leave himself without witness, for he did good by >giving you rains from heaven and fruitful seasons, satisfying
your hearts with food and gladness."
someone eternally condemned & ever more cursed by GOD perseverated:
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: a very very very simple definition of sin ...
Does andrew's "definition" agree with scripture? Let's see in 1 John:
John wrote this to christians. The greek grammer (sic) speaks of an ongoing >> status. He includes himself in that status.
1:8 If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is
not in us.
1:9 If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins, >> and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness.
1:10 If we say that we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his word is >> not in us.
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: The LORD says "Blessed are you who hunger now ..."
Shame on andrew, look at his red face.
He is trying to pull a fast one. His scripture bit is found among these:
'14 Bible verses about Spiritual Hunger'
Psalms
81:10 I am the LORD thy God, which brought thee out of the land of Egypt: >open thy mouth wide, and I will fill it.
Proverbs
13:25 The righteous has enough to satisfy his appetite, But the stomach of >the wicked is in need.
Joel
2:26 And ye shall eat in plenty, and be satisfied, and praise the name of
the LORD your God, that hath dealt wondrously with you: and my
people shall never be ashamed.
Psalms
107 For he satisfies the thirsty and fills the hungry with good things.
Acts
14:17 "Yet he did not leave himself without witness, for he did good by >giving you rains from heaven and fruitful seasons, satisfying
your hearts with food and gladness."
someone eternally condemned & ever more cursed by GOD perseverated:
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: a very very very simple definition of sin ...
Does andrew's "definition" agree with scripture? Let's see in 1 John:
John wrote this to christians. The greek grammer (sic) speaks of an ongoing >> status. He includes himself in that status.
1:8 If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is
not in us.
1:9 If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins, >> and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness.
1:10 If we say that we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his word is >> not in us.
<begin trichotomy>
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: The LORD says "Blessed are you who hunger now ..."
Shame on andrew, look at his red face.
He is trying to pull a fast one. His scripture bit is found among these:
'14 Bible verses about Spiritual Hunger'
Psalms
81:10 I am the LORD thy God, which brought thee out of the land of Egypt: >open thy mouth wide, and I will fill it.
Proverbs
13:25 The righteous has enough to satisfy his appetite, But the stomach of >the wicked is in need.
Joel
2:26 And ye shall eat in plenty, and be satisfied, and praise the name of
the LORD your God, that hath dealt wondrously with you: and my
people shall never be ashamed.
Psalms
107 For he satisfies the thirsty and fills the hungry with good things.
Acts
14:17 "Yet he did not leave himself without witness, for he did good by >giving you rains from heaven and fruitful seasons, satisfying
your hearts with food and gladness."
someone eternally condemned & ever more cursed by GOD perseverated:
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: a very very very simple definition of sin ...
Does andrew's "definition" agree with scripture? Let's see in 1 John:
John wrote this to christians. The greek grammer (sic) speaks of an ongoing >> status. He includes himself in that status.
1:8 If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is
not in us.
1:9 If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins, >> and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness.
1:10 If we say that we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his word is >> not in us.
On Mon, 28 Mar 2022 23:29:29 -0500, HeartQuack Andrew
<disciple@T3WiJ.com> wrote:
Michael Ejercito wrote:
http://archive.ph/dA63S
The ‘zero-Covid’ approach got bad press, but it worked – and it could >>> work again
Laura Spinney
The places that chose to pursue elimination suffered less overall.
Unfortunately, few had the determination to do so
A sign in front of UC Davis Medical Center.
‘Eighteen months into its No-Covid experiment, Davis, California, is
puzzled that other US towns haven’t followed suit.’ Photograph: Peter >>> Dasliva/EPA
Mon 28 Mar 2022 08.22 EDT
It was the alt-history, the policy that didn’t get enacted. No-Covid,
zero-Covid or elimination aimed to stamp out community transmission of
Covid-19 in a given area, rather than just reduce it to “manageable” >>> levels. Most of the world eschewed it, and it got bad press from the
start. Only autocratic regimes could pull it off, one mantra went.
Countries like China and ah, New Zealand and, oops, that notorious
police state Davis in California.
There was something of the self-fulfilling prophecy about this. Many
people thought No-Covid was impossible, but the handful of places that
embraced it proved them wrong. Now that some of those places are
themselves shifting to a reduction or mitigation strategy, countries
that opted for mitigation from the beginning are enjoying a “we told you >>> so” moment. But No-Covid’s early champions had to shift in part because >>> other countries let the virus rip. Even if their strategy didn’t remain >>> the optimal one, it bought them time to prepare others. It’s important >>> that we remember that when the next pandemic sidles along.
The power of language is terrifying sometimes. We talk about pandemics
“erupting” – I’ve done it myself – but sidling seems a more appropriate
verb for something that grows quietly in the dark before exploding into
the light. The concept of exponential growth is one we have trouble
grasping, yet grasping it empowers us. It means that for a time the
disease spread is limited and potentially controllable. It means that
explosive growth falls off rapidly once it is deprived of fuel. And it
means that not everybody has to pursue elimination for it to succeed – >>> as long as a critical mass do.
We’ve found one factor that predicts which countries best survive Covid >>> Thomas Hale
Read more
No-Covid was dogged by problems of definition. People confused
elimination with eradication, for example. Only one human disease,
smallpox, has been eradicated, but plenty have been eliminated. The UK
was measles-free until 2017, when partly, due to low vaccine uptake, it
lost that status. Elimination is not an unattainable dream, but it does
require a concerted effort. In the current pandemic, the word often
applied to such efforts was “restrictions”, as if the efforts themselves
deprived us of liberty. No. The virus deprives us of liberty; the
efforts preserve it. That’s why nobody in Davis is complaining, 18
months into their No-Covid experiment, and why they’re puzzled other US >>> towns haven’t followed suit.
Though lockdowns might have been necessary in the beginning, because we
had no other shields against the virus, they soon stopped being
synonymous with elimination. Cheap mass testing plus isolation of the
infected, ventilation, masking, distancing and – importantly – social >>> and financial support for those inconvenienced by these measures, became >>> the preferred tools, used most effectively in combination.
The claim that elimination exacerbates inequality is a red herring; it
doesn’t, with the right support. A circulating virus certainly does, on >>> the other hand, by preferentially encountering gig workers, keeping kids >>> out of school, and closing mental health clinics.
It’s true that some diseases are easier to eliminate than others. Many >>> western countries assumed that Covid would behave like flu, and decided
that elimination would be too difficult. China assumed that it would
behave like Sars, which it successfully beat 20 years ago. It actually
behaves a bit like both, but not exactly like either. Countries tended
to get the outcome they aimed for.
Last June, a study in The Lancet showed that those that chose
elimination over mitigation did a better job of protecting life, the
economy and civil liberties – the hat-trick. But no country is an island >>> to a highly transmissible virus – even those that are islands – and the >>> emergence of Delta and Omicron variants of the Sars-CoV-2 virus,
combined with the rollout of vaccines that protect against severe
disease and death, was bound to change the calculus. Some who favoured
elimination previously now think it has outlived its usefulness.
New Zealand, for example, has switched to a mitigation strategy.
Epidemiologist Michael Baker expects his country’s high levels of
vaccination will protect it from a wave of hospitalisations and deaths
as Omicron sweeps the country. Hong Kong, which also pursued No-Covid
until recently, has tragically not avoided that fate, due to its
relatively low vaccination rates.
The lesson from Hong Kong is not that elimination doesn’t work, it’s >>> that you need a plan B in case the context changes. Baker and economist
Donald Low, who has chronicled Hong Kong’s experience, agree that
elimination was the right strategy for the first 18 months of the
pandemic. Baker stands by his analysis of December 2020 that,
“Elimination might be the preferred strategy for responding to new
emerging infectious diseases with pandemic potential and moderate to
high severity, particularly while key parameters are being estimated.” >>> What we’re learning about long Covid – or post-Covid-19 condition as the
World Health Organization (WHO) now calls it – only strengthens that
case, since it’s looking increasingly likely that countries that
tolerated high infection rates, including the UK, are facing a sizeable
burden of long-term disability. The vaccines do not stop transmission
completely, and by abandoning the non-pharmaceutical interventions that
do, those countries also increase the likelihood – far from trivial, as >>> scientists highlighted again this month – that a variant more severe
than Omicron or its “stealth” subvariant could arise.
These emerging facts demonstrate how pointless it is to cost
elimination, or any other containment strategy. How do you measure what
it has saved you? In speculative fiction terms, what’s the counterfactual?
The right way to respond to an unknown disease is to fix a goal and work >>> towards it, adjusting your strategy as you learn. Because there’s
another unknown in the equation, human determination, no response should >>> be ruled out initially. As Nelson Mandela said, and the WHO itself likes >>> to quote: “It’s only impossible until it’s done.”
Laura Spinney is a science journalist and the author of Pale Rider: The
Spanish Flu of 1918 and How it Changed the World
The only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving lives, in
the UK & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://tinyurl.com/ConvinceItForward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage
mutations and others like the Omicron, Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota,
Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations combining via
slip-RNA-replication to form hybrids like
http://tinyurl.com/Deltamicron that may render current COVID
vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://tinyurl.com/RapidOmicronTest
) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
How many fucking times does he have to tell you, gook?
He's absolutely RAVENOUS for freshly-squeezed jew diarrhoea!
Michael Ejercito wrote:I am wonderfully hungry!
http://archive.ph/dA63S
The ‘zero-Covid’ approach got bad press, but it worked – and it could >> work again
Laura Spinney
The places that chose to pursue elimination suffered less overall.
Unfortunately, few had the determination to do so
A sign in front of UC Davis Medical Center.
‘Eighteen months into its No-Covid experiment, Davis, California, is
puzzled that other US towns haven’t followed suit.’ Photograph: Peter
Dasliva/EPA
Mon 28 Mar 2022 08.22 EDT
It was the alt-history, the policy that didn’t get enacted. No-Covid,
zero-Covid or elimination aimed to stamp out community transmission of
Covid-19 in a given area, rather than just reduce it to “manageable”
levels. Most of the world eschewed it, and it got bad press from the
start. Only autocratic regimes could pull it off, one mantra went.
Countries like China and ah, New Zealand and, oops, that notorious
police state Davis in California.
There was something of the self-fulfilling prophecy about this. Many
people thought No-Covid was impossible, but the handful of places that
embraced it proved them wrong. Now that some of those places are
themselves shifting to a reduction or mitigation strategy, countries
that opted for mitigation from the beginning are enjoying a “we told you >> so” moment. But No-Covid’s early champions had to shift in part because >> other countries let the virus rip. Even if their strategy didn’t remain
the optimal one, it bought them time to prepare others. It’s important
that we remember that when the next pandemic sidles along.
The power of language is terrifying sometimes. We talk about pandemics
“erupting” – I’ve done it myself – but sidling seems a more appropriate
verb for something that grows quietly in the dark before exploding into
the light. The concept of exponential growth is one we have trouble
grasping, yet grasping it empowers us. It means that for a time the
disease spread is limited and potentially controllable. It means that
explosive growth falls off rapidly once it is deprived of fuel. And it
means that not everybody has to pursue elimination for it to succeed –
as long as a critical mass do.
We’ve found one factor that predicts which countries best survive Covid
Thomas Hale
Read more
No-Covid was dogged by problems of definition. People confused
elimination with eradication, for example. Only one human disease,
smallpox, has been eradicated, but plenty have been eliminated. The UK
was measles-free until 2017, when partly, due to low vaccine uptake, it
lost that status. Elimination is not an unattainable dream, but it does
require a concerted effort. In the current pandemic, the word often
applied to such efforts was “restrictions”, as if the efforts themselves >> deprived us of liberty. No. The virus deprives us of liberty; the
efforts preserve it. That’s why nobody in Davis is complaining, 18
months into their No-Covid experiment, and why they’re puzzled other US
towns haven’t followed suit.
Though lockdowns might have been necessary in the beginning, because we
had no other shields against the virus, they soon stopped being
synonymous with elimination. Cheap mass testing plus isolation of the
infected, ventilation, masking, distancing and – importantly – social
and financial support for those inconvenienced by these measures, became
the preferred tools, used most effectively in combination.
The claim that elimination exacerbates inequality is a red herring; it
doesn’t, with the right support. A circulating virus certainly does, on
the other hand, by preferentially encountering gig workers, keeping kids
out of school, and closing mental health clinics.
It’s true that some diseases are easier to eliminate than others. Many
western countries assumed that Covid would behave like flu, and decided
that elimination would be too difficult. China assumed that it would
behave like Sars, which it successfully beat 20 years ago. It actually
behaves a bit like both, but not exactly like either. Countries tended
to get the outcome they aimed for.
Last June, a study in The Lancet showed that those that chose
elimination over mitigation did a better job of protecting life, the
economy and civil liberties – the hat-trick. But no country is an island >> to a highly transmissible virus – even those that are islands – and the >> emergence of Delta and Omicron variants of the Sars-CoV-2 virus,
combined with the rollout of vaccines that protect against severe
disease and death, was bound to change the calculus. Some who favoured
elimination previously now think it has outlived its usefulness.
New Zealand, for example, has switched to a mitigation strategy.
Epidemiologist Michael Baker expects his country’s high levels of
vaccination will protect it from a wave of hospitalisations and deaths
as Omicron sweeps the country. Hong Kong, which also pursued No-Covid
until recently, has tragically not avoided that fate, due to its
relatively low vaccination rates.
The lesson from Hong Kong is not that elimination doesn’t work, it’s
that you need a plan B in case the context changes. Baker and economist
Donald Low, who has chronicled Hong Kong’s experience, agree that
elimination was the right strategy for the first 18 months of the
pandemic. Baker stands by his analysis of December 2020 that,
“Elimination might be the preferred strategy for responding to new
emerging infectious diseases with pandemic potential and moderate to
high severity, particularly while key parameters are being estimated.”
What we’re learning about long Covid – or post-Covid-19 condition as the >> World Health Organization (WHO) now calls it – only strengthens that
case, since it’s looking increasingly likely that countries that
tolerated high infection rates, including the UK, are facing a sizeable
burden of long-term disability. The vaccines do not stop transmission
completely, and by abandoning the non-pharmaceutical interventions that
do, those countries also increase the likelihood – far from trivial, as
scientists highlighted again this month – that a variant more severe
than Omicron or its “stealth” subvariant could arise.
These emerging facts demonstrate how pointless it is to cost
elimination, or any other containment strategy. How do you measure what
it has saved you? In speculative fiction terms, what’s the counterfactual? >> The right way to respond to an unknown disease is to fix a goal and work
towards it, adjusting your strategy as you learn. Because there’s
another unknown in the equation, human determination, no response should
be ruled out initially. As Nelson Mandela said, and the WHO itself likes
to quote: “It’s only impossible until it’s done.”
Laura Spinney is a science journalist and the author of Pale Rider: The
Spanish Flu of 1918 and How it Changed the World
The only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving lives, in
the UK & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://tinyurl.com/ConvinceItForward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage mutations and others like the Omicron, Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota,
Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations combining via
slip-RNA-replication to form hybrids like
http://tinyurl.com/Deltamicron that may render current COVID vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://tinyurl.com/RapidOmicronTest
) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Michael Ejercito wrote:
http://archive.ph/dA63S
The zero-Covid approach got bad press, but it worked and it could
work again
Laura Spinney
The places that chose to pursue elimination suffered less overall.
Unfortunately, few had the determination to do so
A sign in front of UC Davis Medical Center.
Eighteen months into its No-Covid experiment, Davis, California, is
puzzled that other US towns havent followed suit. Photograph: Peter
Dasliva/EPA
Mon 28 Mar 2022 08.22 EDT
It was the alt-history, the policy that didnt get enacted. No-Covid,
zero-Covid or elimination aimed to stamp out community transmission of
Covid-19 in a given area, rather than just reduce it to manageable
levels. Most of the world eschewed it, and it got bad press from the
start. Only autocratic regimes could pull it off, one mantra went.
Countries like China and ah, New Zealand and, oops, that notorious
police state Davis in California.
There was something of the self-fulfilling prophecy about this. Many
people thought No-Covid was impossible, but the handful of places that
embraced it proved them wrong. Now that some of those places are
themselves shifting to a reduction or mitigation strategy, countries
that opted for mitigation from the beginning are enjoying a we told you >>> so moment. But No-Covids early champions had to shift in part because
other countries let the virus rip. Even if their strategy didnt remain
the optimal one, it bought them time to prepare others. Its important
that we remember that when the next pandemic sidles along.
The power of language is terrifying sometimes. We talk about pandemics
erupting Ive done it myself but sidling seems a more appropriate
verb for something that grows quietly in the dark before exploding into
the light. The concept of exponential growth is one we have trouble
grasping, yet grasping it empowers us. It means that for a time the
disease spread is limited and potentially controllable. It means that
explosive growth falls off rapidly once it is deprived of fuel. And it
means that not everybody has to pursue elimination for it to succeed
as long as a critical mass do.
Weve found one factor that predicts which countries best survive Covid
Thomas Hale
Read more
No-Covid was dogged by problems of definition. People confused
elimination with eradication, for example. Only one human disease,
smallpox, has been eradicated, but plenty have been eliminated. The UK
was measles-free until 2017, when partly, due to low vaccine uptake, it
lost that status. Elimination is not an unattainable dream, but it does
require a concerted effort. In the current pandemic, the word often
applied to such efforts was restrictions, as if the efforts themselves >>> deprived us of liberty. No. The virus deprives us of liberty; the
efforts preserve it. Thats why nobody in Davis is complaining, 18
months into their No-Covid experiment, and why theyre puzzled other US
towns havent followed suit.
Though lockdowns might have been necessary in the beginning, because we
had no other shields against the virus, they soon stopped being
synonymous with elimination. Cheap mass testing plus isolation of the
infected, ventilation, masking, distancing and importantly social
and financial support for those inconvenienced by these measures, became >>> the preferred tools, used most effectively in combination.
The claim that elimination exacerbates inequality is a red herring; it
doesnt, with the right support. A circulating virus certainly does, on
the other hand, by preferentially encountering gig workers, keeping kids >>> out of school, and closing mental health clinics.
Its true that some diseases are easier to eliminate than others. Many
western countries assumed that Covid would behave like flu, and decided
that elimination would be too difficult. China assumed that it would
behave like Sars, which it successfully beat 20 years ago. It actually
behaves a bit like both, but not exactly like either. Countries tended
to get the outcome they aimed for.
Last June, a study in The Lancet showed that those that chose
elimination over mitigation did a better job of protecting life, the
economy and civil liberties the hat-trick. But no country is an island >>> to a highly transmissible virus even those that are islands and the
emergence of Delta and Omicron variants of the Sars-CoV-2 virus,
combined with the rollout of vaccines that protect against severe
disease and death, was bound to change the calculus. Some who favoured
elimination previously now think it has outlived its usefulness.
New Zealand, for example, has switched to a mitigation strategy.
Epidemiologist Michael Baker expects his countrys high levels of
vaccination will protect it from a wave of hospitalisations and deaths
as Omicron sweeps the country. Hong Kong, which also pursued No-Covid
until recently, has tragically not avoided that fate, due to its
relatively low vaccination rates.
The lesson from Hong Kong is not that elimination doesnt work, its
that you need a plan B in case the context changes. Baker and economist
Donald Low, who has chronicled Hong Kongs experience, agree that
elimination was the right strategy for the first 18 months of the
pandemic. Baker stands by his analysis of December 2020 that,
Elimination might be the preferred strategy for responding to new
emerging infectious diseases with pandemic potential and moderate to
high severity, particularly while key parameters are being estimated.
What were learning about long Covid or post-Covid-19 condition as the >>> World Health Organization (WHO) now calls it only strengthens that
case, since its looking increasingly likely that countries that
tolerated high infection rates, including the UK, are facing a sizeable
burden of long-term disability. The vaccines do not stop transmission
completely, and by abandoning the non-pharmaceutical interventions that
do, those countries also increase the likelihood far from trivial, as
scientists highlighted again this month that a variant more severe
than Omicron or its stealth subvariant could arise.
These emerging facts demonstrate how pointless it is to cost
elimination, or any other containment strategy. How do you measure what
it has saved you? In speculative fiction terms, whats the counterfactual? >>> The right way to respond to an unknown disease is to fix a goal and work >>> towards it, adjusting your strategy as you learn. Because theres
another unknown in the equation, human determination, no response should >>> be ruled out initially. As Nelson Mandela said, and the WHO itself likes >>> to quote: Its only impossible until its done.
Laura Spinney is a science journalist and the author of Pale Rider: The
Spanish Flu of 1918 and How it Changed the World
The only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving lives, in
the UK & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://tinyurl.com/ConvinceItForward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage
mutations and others like the Omicron, Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota,
Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations combining via
slip-RNA-replication to form hybrids like
http://tinyurl.com/Deltamicron that may render current COVID
vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://tinyurl.com/RapidOmicronTest
) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
I am wonderfully hungry!
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