MichaelE wrote:
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-59378849
plenty ofCovid: Can UK avoid a Europe-style return to lockdown?
Nick Triggle
Health correspondent
@nicktriggleon Twitter
Published14 hours agocommentsComments
Share
Related Topics
Coronavirus pandemic
Woman shopping
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
Covid infection rates have started rising sharply in parts of Western >Europe, prompting the introduction of fresh restrictions and lockdowns.
It has triggered fears the UK could follow suit. But there are
reasons to believe Britain will escape the worst of what is being seen
on the continent. In fact, the UK may well be in the strongest position
of all to weather Covid this winter.
To understand why that could be the case, you need to look at the
reasons why cases have started to take off in Western Europe.
Unlike the UK - and England in particular - many parts of Europe kept >major restrictions in place for much longer.
Whereas England fully unlocked in mid-July, parts of Europe did not do >this until the autumn, and in many places kept tougher restrictions in >place even as they did.
Part of this was to do with timing. The UK was hit by the more
infectious Alpha variant and then Delta sooner, meaning it was in a >position to push ahead with unlocking before others.
avoidChart showing infection rates
Presentational white space
Chart showing Covid deaths
Presentational white space
But it was also a conscious choice backed by the government's top >scientists, Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance.
The logic - along with the benefit of ending restrictions that
themselves cause harm to health - was that it was better to have the >rebound in infection, the so-called exit wave, in the summer.
It was felt the increase in the spread of the virus would be mitigated
by the better weather, meaning more time spent outdoors, and would
seeingthe winter crunch when pressure on the health system increases across
the board.
UK has high levels of immunity
The UK has, in effect, already had the wave the rest of Europe is
moreand has managed to avoid being swamped by it.
That is mainly because of the amount of immunity built up.
A combination of good vaccine rollout, particularly among the older
everyonevulnerable groups who are the ones most at risk of serious illness, and >natural immunity from infection means there is likely to be a much
smaller pool of vulnerable people for the virus to infect.
Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have >been trying to quantify this by looking at what would happen if
because ofwas suddenly exposed to the virus in one go.
They modelled this for England - although there is nothing to suggest >Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be any different - and 18
other European nations.
If this hypothetical situation happened, England would have by far the >fewest people ending up in hospital - 62 per 100,000 people -
quickerimmunity built up by vaccination and infection. That compares with more >than 300 in Germany, largely because of their lower levels of infection
to date, and more than 800 in Romania, which has struggled to convince
its public to come forward for vaccination.
Chart showing modelling of hospital cases
Presentational white space
This was the picture at the end of October. If the same analysis was
done at the end of November it is likely the situation would be even
more favourable for England, says lead researcher Dr Lloyd Chapman.
That's because the UK is ploughing ahead faster than other nations with >boosters. Again part of this is related to timing. As the UK was
risk atoff the mark with Covid vaccinations initially, there are greater
numbers of people becoming eligible for a booster.
"We are giving those boosters to the very people who are most at
ratesperhaps the best time - they will have the best protection in winter."
Chart showing booster uptake
Presentational white space
But Dr Chapman also points out this has come at a price - the high
justof infection have resulted in a greater amount of serious illness and >death in recent months than many of our Western European neighbours.
And he adds the research should not be seen as a guarantee we will
escape the winter without seeing a surge in cases. "We may be in the >strongest position - but we could still see cases double and that would >cause problems."
'Public playing key role in UK'
But is that likely? What is perhaps most remarkable about the UK is
seen inhow stable infection levels have been. Ever since the sharp rise
Europeearly summer peaked in mid-July, infection rates have bobbled along,
small rises being followed by similar drops.
There is no other part of Europe that has seen Covid infections held so >stable with very few restrictions in place.
Instead, when other nations have seen cases surge restrictions have
tended to be reimposed. This is happening now in parts of Western
autumn.and follows on from what happened in Eastern Europe early in the
OctoberRomania, for example, saw a sharp rise in cases in September and
chairsand reacted by introducing a night curfew, sending children home from >school and introducing health passes for access to public venues.
It is telling that those nations that have had the most problems as
winter arrives are the ones identified by the London School of Hygiene
and Tropical Medicine as having the greatest pool of vulnerable people. >How far this pattern spreads across Europe remains to be seen.
Doctor administering injection to young woman
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
But immunity alone does not explain why the UK, and in particular
England, has seen such stable rates, says Prof Graham Medley, who
we'vethe government's infectious disease modelling group.
Prof Medley, speaking in a personal capacity, believes it is more
complex than that. "I think we are seeing the public playing an
important role."
He says a combination of limiting mixing and frequent use of rapid
tests, which are more easy to access here than in many other countries, >seems to be doing just enough to keep the virus in check.
"The government has passed the risk management to the public - and
been able to do that better than other countries."
The big question is whether that will last throughout winter - Scotland >and Northern Ireland are already talking about the possibility of >tightening of restrictions. Prof Medley says it is "delicately"The only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving lives, in
balanced, but with every passing week the chances are getting better.
the UK & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://bit.ly/convince_it_forward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage mutations and others like the Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota, Lambda, Mu &
Delta lineage mutations combining to form hybrids that render current
COVID vaccines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-59378849
Covid: Can UK avoid a Europe-style return to lockdown?
Nick Triggle
Health correspondent
@nicktriggleon Twitter
Published14 hours agocommentsComments
Share
Related Topics
Coronavirus pandemic
Woman shopping
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
Covid infection rates have started rising sharply in parts of Western
Europe, prompting the introduction of fresh restrictions and lockdowns.
It has triggered fears the UK could follow suit. But there are plenty of >reasons to believe Britain will escape the worst of what is being seen
on the continent. In fact, the UK may well be in the strongest position
of all to weather Covid this winter.
To understand why that could be the case, you need to look at the
reasons why cases have started to take off in Western Europe.
Unlike the UK - and England in particular - many parts of Europe kept
major restrictions in place for much longer.
Whereas England fully unlocked in mid-July, parts of Europe did not do
this until the autumn, and in many places kept tougher restrictions in
place even as they did.
Part of this was to do with timing. The UK was hit by the more
infectious Alpha variant and then Delta sooner, meaning it was in a
position to push ahead with unlocking before others.
Chart showing infection rates
Presentational white space
Chart showing Covid deaths
Presentational white space
But it was also a conscious choice backed by the government's top
scientists, Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance.
The logic - along with the benefit of ending restrictions that
themselves cause harm to health - was that it was better to have the
rebound in infection, the so-called exit wave, in the summer.
It was felt the increase in the spread of the virus would be mitigated
by the better weather, meaning more time spent outdoors, and would avoid
the winter crunch when pressure on the health system increases across
the board.
UK has high levels of immunity
The UK has, in effect, already had the wave the rest of Europe is seeing
and has managed to avoid being swamped by it.
That is mainly because of the amount of immunity built up.
A combination of good vaccine rollout, particularly among the older more >vulnerable groups who are the ones most at risk of serious illness, and >natural immunity from infection means there is likely to be a much
smaller pool of vulnerable people for the virus to infect.
Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have
been trying to quantify this by looking at what would happen if everyone
was suddenly exposed to the virus in one go.
They modelled this for England - although there is nothing to suggest >Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be any different - and 18
other European nations.
If this hypothetical situation happened, England would have by far the
fewest people ending up in hospital - 62 per 100,000 people - because of >immunity built up by vaccination and infection. That compares with more
than 300 in Germany, largely because of their lower levels of infection
to date, and more than 800 in Romania, which has struggled to convince
its public to come forward for vaccination.
Chart showing modelling of hospital cases
Presentational white space
This was the picture at the end of October. If the same analysis was
done at the end of November it is likely the situation would be even
more favourable for England, says lead researcher Dr Lloyd Chapman.
That's because the UK is ploughing ahead faster than other nations with >boosters. Again part of this is related to timing. As the UK was quicker
off the mark with Covid vaccinations initially, there are greater
numbers of people becoming eligible for a booster.
"We are giving those boosters to the very people who are most at risk at >perhaps the best time - they will have the best protection in winter."
Chart showing booster uptake
Presentational white space
But Dr Chapman also points out this has come at a price - the high rates
of infection have resulted in a greater amount of serious illness and
death in recent months than many of our Western European neighbours.
And he adds the research should not be seen as a guarantee we will
escape the winter without seeing a surge in cases. "We may be in the >strongest position - but we could still see cases double and that would
cause problems."
'Public playing key role in UK'
But is that likely? What is perhaps most remarkable about the UK is just
how stable infection levels have been. Ever since the sharp rise seen in >early summer peaked in mid-July, infection rates have bobbled along,
small rises being followed by similar drops.
There is no other part of Europe that has seen Covid infections held so >stable with very few restrictions in place.
Instead, when other nations have seen cases surge restrictions have
tended to be reimposed. This is happening now in parts of Western Europe
and follows on from what happened in Eastern Europe early in the autumn.
Romania, for example, saw a sharp rise in cases in September and October
and reacted by introducing a night curfew, sending children home from
school and introducing health passes for access to public venues.
It is telling that those nations that have had the most problems as
winter arrives are the ones identified by the London School of Hygiene
and Tropical Medicine as having the greatest pool of vulnerable people.
How far this pattern spreads across Europe remains to be seen.
Doctor administering injection to young woman
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
But immunity alone does not explain why the UK, and in particular
England, has seen such stable rates, says Prof Graham Medley, who chairs
the government's infectious disease modelling group.
Prof Medley, speaking in a personal capacity, believes it is more
complex than that. "I think we are seeing the public playing an
important role."
He says a combination of limiting mixing and frequent use of rapid
tests, which are more easy to access here than in many other countries,
seems to be doing just enough to keep the virus in check.
"The government has passed the risk management to the public - and we've
been able to do that better than other countries."
The big question is whether that will last throughout winter - Scotland
and Northern Ireland are already talking about the possibility of
tightening of restrictions. Prof Medley says it is "delicately"
balanced, but with every passing week the chances are getting better.
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
MichaelE wrote:
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-59378849
Covid: Can UK avoid a Europe-style return to lockdown?
Nick Triggle
Health correspondent
@nicktriggleon Twitter
Published14 hours agocommentsComments
Share
Related Topics
Coronavirus pandemic
Woman shopping
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
Covid infection rates have started rising sharply in parts of Western >Europe, prompting the introduction of fresh restrictions and lockdowns.
plenty ofIt has triggered fears the UK could follow suit. But there are
reasons to believe Britain will escape the worst of what is being seen
on the continent. In fact, the UK may well be in the strongest position >of all to weather Covid this winter.
To understand why that could be the case, you need to look at the
reasons why cases have started to take off in Western Europe.
Unlike the UK - and England in particular - many parts of Europe kept >major restrictions in place for much longer.
Whereas England fully unlocked in mid-July, parts of Europe did not do >this until the autumn, and in many places kept tougher restrictions in >place even as they did.
Part of this was to do with timing. The UK was hit by the more
infectious Alpha variant and then Delta sooner, meaning it was in a >position to push ahead with unlocking before others.
Chart showing infection rates
Presentational white space
Chart showing Covid deaths
Presentational white space
But it was also a conscious choice backed by the government's top >scientists, Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance.
The logic - along with the benefit of ending restrictions that
themselves cause harm to health - was that it was better to have the >rebound in infection, the so-called exit wave, in the summer.
avoidIt was felt the increase in the spread of the virus would be mitigated
by the better weather, meaning more time spent outdoors, and would
the winter crunch when pressure on the health system increases across
the board.
seeingUK has high levels of immunity
The UK has, in effect, already had the wave the rest of Europe is
and has managed to avoid being swamped by it.
That is mainly because of the amount of immunity built up.
moreA combination of good vaccine rollout, particularly among the older
vulnerable groups who are the ones most at risk of serious illness, and >natural immunity from infection means there is likely to be a much >smaller pool of vulnerable people for the virus to infect.
everyoneResearchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have >been trying to quantify this by looking at what would happen if
was suddenly exposed to the virus in one go.
They modelled this for England - although there is nothing to suggest >Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be any different - and 18 >other European nations.
because ofIf this hypothetical situation happened, England would have by far the >fewest people ending up in hospital - 62 per 100,000 people -
immunity built up by vaccination and infection. That compares with more >than 300 in Germany, largely because of their lower levels of infection >to date, and more than 800 in Romania, which has struggled to convince >its public to come forward for vaccination.
Chart showing modelling of hospital cases
Presentational white space
This was the picture at the end of October. If the same analysis was
done at the end of November it is likely the situation would be even
more favourable for England, says lead researcher Dr Lloyd Chapman.
quickerThat's because the UK is ploughing ahead faster than other nations with >boosters. Again part of this is related to timing. As the UK was
off the mark with Covid vaccinations initially, there are greater
numbers of people becoming eligible for a booster.
risk at"We are giving those boosters to the very people who are most at
perhaps the best time - they will have the best protection in winter."
ratesChart showing booster uptake
Presentational white space
But Dr Chapman also points out this has come at a price - the high
of infection have resulted in a greater amount of serious illness and >death in recent months than many of our Western European neighbours.
And he adds the research should not be seen as a guarantee we will
escape the winter without seeing a surge in cases. "We may be in the >strongest position - but we could still see cases double and that would >cause problems."
just'Public playing key role in UK'
But is that likely? What is perhaps most remarkable about the UK is
seen inhow stable infection levels have been. Ever since the sharp rise
early summer peaked in mid-July, infection rates have bobbled along, >small rises being followed by similar drops.
There is no other part of Europe that has seen Covid infections held so >stable with very few restrictions in place.
EuropeInstead, when other nations have seen cases surge restrictions have >tended to be reimposed. This is happening now in parts of Western
autumn.and follows on from what happened in Eastern Europe early in the
OctoberRomania, for example, saw a sharp rise in cases in September and
and reacted by introducing a night curfew, sending children home from >school and introducing health passes for access to public venues.
It is telling that those nations that have had the most problems as >winter arrives are the ones identified by the London School of Hygiene >and Tropical Medicine as having the greatest pool of vulnerable people. >How far this pattern spreads across Europe remains to be seen.
chairsDoctor administering injection to young woman
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
But immunity alone does not explain why the UK, and in particular >England, has seen such stable rates, says Prof Graham Medley, who
the government's infectious disease modelling group.
Prof Medley, speaking in a personal capacity, believes it is more
complex than that. "I think we are seeing the public playing an
important role."
He says a combination of limiting mixing and frequent use of rapid
tests, which are more easy to access here than in many other countries, >seems to be doing just enough to keep the virus in check.
we've"The government has passed the risk management to the public - and
been able to do that better than other countries."
The big question is whether that will last throughout winter - Scotland >and Northern Ireland are already talking about the possibility of >tightening of restrictions. Prof Medley says it is "delicately"The only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving lives, in
balanced, but with every passing week the chances are getting better.
the UK & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://bit.ly/convince_it_forward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage mutations and others like the Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota, Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations combining to form hybrids that render current
COVID vaccines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
I am wonderfully hungry!
On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 at 6:35:37 AM UTC-8, Andrew B. Chung,
MD/PhD wrote:
MichaelE wrote:
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-59378849
Covid: Can UK avoid a Europe-style return to lockdown?
Nick Triggle
Health correspondent
@nicktriggleon Twitter
Published14 hours agocommentsComments
Share
Related Topics
Coronavirus pandemic
Woman shopping
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
Covid infection rates have started rising sharply in parts of Western >Europe, prompting the introduction of fresh restrictions and lockdowns.
plenty ofIt has triggered fears the UK could follow suit. But there are
reasons to believe Britain will escape the worst of what is being seen
on the continent. In fact, the UK may well be in the strongest position >of all to weather Covid this winter.
To understand why that could be the case, you need to look at the
reasons why cases have started to take off in Western Europe.
Unlike the UK - and England in particular - many parts of Europe kept >major restrictions in place for much longer.
Whereas England fully unlocked in mid-July, parts of Europe did not do >this until the autumn, and in many places kept tougher restrictions in >place even as they did.
Part of this was to do with timing. The UK was hit by the more
infectious Alpha variant and then Delta sooner, meaning it was in a >position to push ahead with unlocking before others.
Chart showing infection rates
Presentational white space
Chart showing Covid deaths
Presentational white space
But it was also a conscious choice backed by the government's top >scientists, Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance.
The logic - along with the benefit of ending restrictions that
themselves cause harm to health - was that it was better to have the >rebound in infection, the so-called exit wave, in the summer.
avoidIt was felt the increase in the spread of the virus would be mitigated
by the better weather, meaning more time spent outdoors, and would
the winter crunch when pressure on the health system increases across
the board.
seeingUK has high levels of immunity
The UK has, in effect, already had the wave the rest of Europe is
and has managed to avoid being swamped by it.
That is mainly because of the amount of immunity built up.
moreA combination of good vaccine rollout, particularly among the older
vulnerable groups who are the ones most at risk of serious illness, and >natural immunity from infection means there is likely to be a much >smaller pool of vulnerable people for the virus to infect.
everyoneResearchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have >been trying to quantify this by looking at what would happen if
was suddenly exposed to the virus in one go.
They modelled this for England - although there is nothing to suggest >Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be any different - and 18 >other European nations.
because ofIf this hypothetical situation happened, England would have by far the >fewest people ending up in hospital - 62 per 100,000 people -
immunity built up by vaccination and infection. That compares with more >than 300 in Germany, largely because of their lower levels of infection >to date, and more than 800 in Romania, which has struggled to convince >its public to come forward for vaccination.
Chart showing modelling of hospital cases
Presentational white space
This was the picture at the end of October. If the same analysis was
done at the end of November it is likely the situation would be even
more favourable for England, says lead researcher Dr Lloyd Chapman.
quickerThat's because the UK is ploughing ahead faster than other nations with >boosters. Again part of this is related to timing. As the UK was
off the mark with Covid vaccinations initially, there are greater
numbers of people becoming eligible for a booster.
risk at"We are giving those boosters to the very people who are most at
perhaps the best time - they will have the best protection in winter."
ratesChart showing booster uptake
Presentational white space
But Dr Chapman also points out this has come at a price - the high
of infection have resulted in a greater amount of serious illness and >death in recent months than many of our Western European neighbours.
And he adds the research should not be seen as a guarantee we will
escape the winter without seeing a surge in cases. "We may be in the >strongest position - but we could still see cases double and that would >cause problems."
just'Public playing key role in UK'
But is that likely? What is perhaps most remarkable about the UK is
seen inhow stable infection levels have been. Ever since the sharp rise
early summer peaked in mid-July, infection rates have bobbled along, >small rises being followed by similar drops.
There is no other part of Europe that has seen Covid infections held so >stable with very few restrictions in place.
EuropeInstead, when other nations have seen cases surge restrictions have >tended to be reimposed. This is happening now in parts of Western
autumn.and follows on from what happened in Eastern Europe early in the
OctoberRomania, for example, saw a sharp rise in cases in September and
and reacted by introducing a night curfew, sending children home from >school and introducing health passes for access to public venues.
It is telling that those nations that have had the most problems as >winter arrives are the ones identified by the London School of Hygiene >and Tropical Medicine as having the greatest pool of vulnerable people. >How far this pattern spreads across Europe remains to be seen.
chairsDoctor administering injection to young woman
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
But immunity alone does not explain why the UK, and in particular >England, has seen such stable rates, says Prof Graham Medley, who
the government's infectious disease modelling group.
Prof Medley, speaking in a personal capacity, believes it is more
complex than that. "I think we are seeing the public playing an
important role."
He says a combination of limiting mixing and frequent use of rapid
tests, which are more easy to access here than in many other countries, >seems to be doing just enough to keep the virus in check.
we've"The government has passed the risk management to the public - and
been able to do that better than other countries."
The big question is whether that will last throughout winter - Scotland >and Northern Ireland are already talking about the possibility of >tightening of restrictions. Prof Medley says it is "delicately"The only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving lives, in
balanced, but with every passing week the chances are getting better.
the UK & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://bit.ly/convince_it_forward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage mutations and others like the Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota, Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations combining to form hybrids that render current
COVID vaccines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
I am wonderfully hungry!
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: The LORD says "Blessed are you who hunger now ..."
Shame on andrew, look at his red face.
He is trying to pull a fast one. His scripture bit is found among these:
'14 Bible verses about Spiritual Hunger'
Psalms
81:10 I am the LORD thy God, which brought thee out of the land of Egypt: >open thy mouth wide, and I will fill it.
Proverbs
13:25 The righteous has enough to satisfy his appetite, But the stomach of >the wicked is in need.
Joel
2:26 And ye shall eat in plenty, and be satisfied, and praise the name of
the LORD your God, that hath dealt wondrously with you: and my
people shall never be ashamed.
Psalms
107 For he satisfies the thirsty and fills the hungry with good things.
Acts
14:17 "Yet he did not leave himself without witness, for he did good by >giving you rains from heaven and fruitful seasons, satisfying
your hearts with food and gladness."
someone eternally condemned & ever more cursed by GOD perseverated:
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: a very very very simple definition of sin ...
Does andrew's "definition" agree with scripture? Let's see in 1 John:
John wrote this to christians. The greek grammer (sic) speaks of an ongoing >> status. He includes himself in that status.
1:8 If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is
not in us.
1:9 If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins, >> and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness.
1:10 If we say that we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his word is >> not in us.
On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 06:59:15 -0800, NOT Michael Ejercito <MEje...@HotMail.com> wrote:
On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 at 6:35:37 AM UTC-8, Andrew B. Chung,
MD/PhD wrote:
MichaelE wrote:
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-59378849
WesternCovid: Can UK avoid a Europe-style return to lockdown?
Nick Triggle
Health correspondent
@nicktriggleon Twitter
Published14 hours agocommentsComments
Share
Related Topics
Coronavirus pandemic
Woman shopping
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
Covid infection rates have started rising sharply in parts of
lockdowns.Europe, prompting the introduction of fresh restrictions and
being seenplenty ofIt has triggered fears the UK could follow suit. But there are
reasons to believe Britain will escape the worst of what is
positionon the continent. In fact, the UK may well be in the strongest
keptof all to weather Covid this winter.
To understand why that could be the case, you need to look at the >reasons why cases have started to take off in Western Europe.
Unlike the UK - and England in particular - many parts of Europe
not domajor restrictions in place for much longer.
Whereas England fully unlocked in mid-July, parts of Europe did
restrictions inthis until the autumn, and in many places kept tougher
place even as they did.
Part of this was to do with timing. The UK was hit by the more >infectious Alpha variant and then Delta sooner, meaning it was in a >position to push ahead with unlocking before others.
theChart showing infection rates
Presentational white space
Chart showing Covid deaths
Presentational white space
But it was also a conscious choice backed by the government's top >scientists, Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance.
The logic - along with the benefit of ending restrictions that >themselves cause harm to health - was that it was better to have
mitigatedrebound in infection, the so-called exit wave, in the summer.
It was felt the increase in the spread of the virus would be
acrossavoidby the better weather, meaning more time spent outdoors, and would
the winter crunch when pressure on the health system increases
illness, andthe board.
seeingUK has high levels of immunity
The UK has, in effect, already had the wave the rest of Europe is
and has managed to avoid being swamped by it.
That is mainly because of the amount of immunity built up.
moreA combination of good vaccine rollout, particularly among the older
vulnerable groups who are the ones most at risk of serious
Medicine havenatural immunity from infection means there is likely to be a much >smaller pool of vulnerable people for the virus to infect.
Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
suggesteveryonebeen trying to quantify this by looking at what would happen if
was suddenly exposed to the virus in one go.
They modelled this for England - although there is nothing to
and 18Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be any different -
far theother European nations.
If this hypothetical situation happened, England would have by
with morebecause offewest people ending up in hospital - 62 per 100,000 people -
immunity built up by vaccination and infection. That compares
infectionthan 300 in Germany, largely because of their lower levels of
convinceto date, and more than 800 in Romania, which has struggled to
wasits public to come forward for vaccination.
Chart showing modelling of hospital cases
Presentational white space
This was the picture at the end of October. If the same analysis
evendone at the end of November it is likely the situation would be
nations withmore favourable for England, says lead researcher Dr Lloyd Chapman.
That's because the UK is ploughing ahead faster than other
winter."quickerboosters. Again part of this is related to timing. As the UK was
off the mark with Covid vaccinations initially, there are greater >numbers of people becoming eligible for a booster.
risk at"We are giving those boosters to the very people who are most at
perhaps the best time - they will have the best protection in
illness andratesChart showing booster uptake
Presentational white space
But Dr Chapman also points out this has come at a price - the high
of infection have resulted in a greater amount of serious
neighbours.death in recent months than many of our Western European
theAnd he adds the research should not be seen as a guarantee we will >escape the winter without seeing a surge in cases. "We may be in
that wouldstrongest position - but we could still see cases double and
along,cause problems."
just'Public playing key role in UK'
But is that likely? What is perhaps most remarkable about the UK is
seen inhow stable infection levels have been. Ever since the sharp rise
early summer peaked in mid-July, infection rates have bobbled
held sosmall rises being followed by similar drops.
There is no other part of Europe that has seen Covid infections
fromstable with very few restrictions in place.
EuropeInstead, when other nations have seen cases surge restrictions have >tended to be reimposed. This is happening now in parts of Western
autumn.and follows on from what happened in Eastern Europe early in the
OctoberRomania, for example, saw a sharp rise in cases in September and
and reacted by introducing a night curfew, sending children home
Hygieneschool and introducing health passes for access to public venues.
It is telling that those nations that have had the most problems as >winter arrives are the ones identified by the London School of
people.and Tropical Medicine as having the greatest pool of vulnerable
countries,How far this pattern spreads across Europe remains to be seen.
chairsDoctor administering injection to young woman
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
But immunity alone does not explain why the UK, and in particular >England, has seen such stable rates, says Prof Graham Medley, who
the government's infectious disease modelling group.
Prof Medley, speaking in a personal capacity, believes it is more >complex than that. "I think we are seeing the public playing an >important role."
He says a combination of limiting mixing and frequent use of rapid >tests, which are more easy to access here than in many other
Scotlandseems to be doing just enough to keep the virus in check.
we've"The government has passed the risk management to the public - and
been able to do that better than other countries."
The big question is whether that will last throughout winter -
better.and Northern Ireland are already talking about the possibility of >tightening of restrictions. Prof Medley says it is "delicately" >balanced, but with every passing week the chances are getting
lives, inThe only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving
thethe UK & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic) in order to http://bit.ly/convince_it_forward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for
lineagebest while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha
Mu &mutations and others like the Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota, Lambda,
currentDelta lineage mutations combining to form hybrids that render
COVID vaccines/pills no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
I am wonderfully hungry!Of course you are, gook...absolutely RAVENOUS for freshly squeezed jew diarrhoea!
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: The LORD says "Blessed are you who hunger now ..."
Shame on andrew, look at his red face.
He is trying to pull a fast one. His scripture bit is found among these:
'14 Bible verses about Spiritual Hunger'
Psalms
81:10 I am the LORD thy God, which brought thee out of the land of Egypt: >open thy mouth wide, and I will fill it.
Proverbs
13:25 The righteous has enough to satisfy his appetite, But the stomach of >the wicked is in need.
Joel
2:26 And ye shall eat in plenty, and be satisfied, and praise the name of
the LORD your God, that hath dealt wondrously with you: and my
people shall never be ashamed.
Psalms
107 For he satisfies the thirsty and fills the hungry with good things.
Acts
14:17 "Yet he did not leave himself without witness, for he did good by >giving you rains from heaven and fruitful seasons, satisfying
your hearts with food and gladness."
someone eternally condemned & ever more cursed by GOD perseverated:
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: a very very very simple definition of sin ...
Does andrew's "definition" agree with scripture? Let's see in 1 John:
John wrote this to christians. The greek grammer (sic) speaks of an ongoing >> status. He includes himself in that status.
1:8 If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is
not in us.
1:9 If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins, >> and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness.
1:10 If we say that we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his word is >> not in us.
On Wed, 24 Nov 2021 07:25:05 -0800, NOT Michael Ejercito <MEjercit@HotMail.com> wrote:
On Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 5:38:46 AM UTC-8, NEMO wrote:
On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 06:59:15 -0800, NOT Michael Ejercito
<MEje...@HotMail.com> wrote:
Of course you are, gook...absolutely RAVENOUS for freshly squeezed jew
I am wonderfully hungry!
diarrhoea!
Mangina, you are so obsessed with diarrhoea.
Needledick, you are so obsessed with zsuckling freshly squeezed jew
diarrhoea out of jew ani.
Nithing, sometimes some normal boys and normal men fantasize about Judenfraulein vulva.Mangina, you are so obsessed with diarrhoea.
Needledick, you are so obsessed with zsuckling freshly squeezed jew
diarrhoea out of jew ani.
NEMO wrote:
On Wed, 24 Nov 2021 07:25:05 -0800, NOT Michael EjercitoNithing, sometimes some normal boys and normal men fantasize about
<MEjercit@HotMail.com> wrote:
On Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 5:38:46 AM UTC-8, NEMO wrote:
On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 06:59:15 -0800, NOT Michael Ejercito
<MEje...@HotMail.com> wrote:
Of course you are, gook...absolutely RAVENOUS for freshly squeezed jew >>>> diarrhoea!
I am wonderfully hungry!
Mangina, you are so obsessed with diarrhoea.
Needledick, you are so obsessed with zsuckling freshly squeezed jew
diarrhoea out of jew ani.
Judenfraulein vulva.
But who accused you of being a normal man?
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: The LORD says "Blessed are you who hunger now ..."
Shame on andrew, look at his red face.
He is trying to pull a fast one. His scripture bit is found among these:
'14 Bible verses about Spiritual Hunger'
Psalms
81:10 I am the LORD thy God, which brought thee out of the land of Egypt: >open thy mouth wide, and I will fill it.
Proverbs
13:25 The righteous has enough to satisfy his appetite, But the stomach of >the wicked is in need.
Joel
2:26 And ye shall eat in plenty, and be satisfied, and praise the name of
the LORD your God, that hath dealt wondrously with you: and my
people shall never be ashamed.
Psalms
107 For he satisfies the thirsty and fills the hungry with good things.
Acts
14:17 "Yet he did not leave himself without witness, for he did good by >giving you rains from heaven and fruitful seasons, satisfying
your hearts with food and gladness."
someone eternally condemned & ever more cursed by GOD perseverated:
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: a very very very simple definition of sin ...
Does andrew's "definition" agree with scripture? Let's see in 1 John:
John wrote this to christians. The greek grammer (sic) speaks of an ongoing >> status. He includes himself in that status.
1:8 If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is
not in us.
1:9 If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins, >> and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness.
1:10 If we say that we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his word is >> not in us.
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: The LORD says "Blessed are you who hunger now ..."
Shame on andrew, look at his red face.
He is trying to pull a fast one. His scripture bit is found among these:
'14 Bible verses about Spiritual Hunger'
Psalms
81:10 I am the LORD thy God, which brought thee out of the land of Egypt: >open thy mouth wide, and I will fill it.
Proverbs
13:25 The righteous has enough to satisfy his appetite, But the stomach of >the wicked is in need.
Joel
2:26 And ye shall eat in plenty, and be satisfied, and praise the name of
the LORD your God, that hath dealt wondrously with you: and my
people shall never be ashamed.
Psalms
107 For he satisfies the thirsty and fills the hungry with good things.
Acts
14:17 "Yet he did not leave himself without witness, for he did good by >giving you rains from heaven and fruitful seasons, satisfying
your hearts with food and gladness."
someone eternally condemned & ever more cursed by GOD perseverated:
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: a very very very simple definition of sin ...
Does andrew's "definition" agree with scripture? Let's see in 1 John:
John wrote this to christians. The greek grammer (sic) speaks of an ongoing >> status. He includes himself in that status.
1:8 If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is
not in us.
1:9 If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins, >> and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness.
1:10 If we say that we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his word is >> not in us.
On Fri, 26 Nov 2021 10:53:53 -0800, Michael Ejercito wrote:
OTOH, that filthy old pedo swine has been fantasizing about men's dicks, foreskins and arses on Usenet for OVER TWENTY YEARS, virtually around the clock!Nithing, sometimes some normal boys and normal men fantasize aboutMangina, you are so obsessed with diarrhoea.
Needledick, you are so obsessed with zsuckling freshly squeezed jew
diarrhoea out of jew ani.
Judenfraulein vulva.
Foreskin Peeler wrote:
Yup.
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: The LORD says "Blessed are you who hunger now ..."
Shame on andrew, look at his red face.
He is trying to pull a fast one. His scripture bit is found among these:
'14 Bible verses about Spiritual Hunger'
Psalms
81:10 I am the LORD thy God, which brought thee out of the land of Egypt: >open thy mouth wide, and I will fill it.
Proverbs
13:25 The righteous has enough to satisfy his appetite, But the stomach of >the wicked is in need.
Joel
2:26 And ye shall eat in plenty, and be satisfied, and praise the name of
the LORD your God, that hath dealt wondrously with you: and my
people shall never be ashamed.
Psalms
107 For he satisfies the thirsty and fills the hungry with good things.
Acts
14:17 "Yet he did not leave himself without witness, for he did good by >giving you rains from heaven and fruitful seasons, satisfying
your hearts with food and gladness."
someone eternally condemned & ever more cursed by GOD perseverated:
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: a very very very simple definition of sin ...
Does andrew's "definition" agree with scripture? Let's see in 1 John:
John wrote this to christians. The greek grammer (sic) speaks of an ongoing >> status. He includes himself in that status.
1:8 If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is
not in us.
1:9 If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins, >> and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness.
1:10 If we say that we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his word is >> not in us.
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: The LORD says "Blessed are you who hunger now ..."
Shame on andrew, look at his red face.
He is trying to pull a fast one. His scripture bit is found among these:
'14 Bible verses about Spiritual Hunger'
Psalms
81:10 I am the LORD thy God, which brought thee out of the land of Egypt: open thy mouth wide, and I will fill it.
Proverbs
13:25 The righteous has enough to satisfy his appetite, But the stomach of the wicked is in need.
Joel
2:26 And ye shall eat in plenty, and be satisfied, and praise the name of
the LORD your God, that hath dealt wondrously with you: and my
people shall never be ashamed.
Psalms
107 For he satisfies the thirsty and fills the hungry with good things.
Acts
14:17 "Yet he did not leave himself without witness, for he did good by giving you rains from heaven and fruitful seasons, satisfying
your hearts with food and gladness."
someone eternally condemned & ever more cursed by GOD perseverated:
HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
Subject: a very very very simple definition of sin ...
Does andrew's "definition" agree with scripture? Let's see in 1 John:
ongoingJohn wrote this to christians. The greek grammer (sic) speaks of an
status. He includes himself in that status.
sins,1:8 If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is
not in us.
1:9 If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our
word isand to cleanse us from all unrighteousness.
1:10 If we say that we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his
not in us.
| Sysop: | Keyop |
|---|---|
| Location: | Huddersfield, West Yorkshire, UK |
| Users: | 291 |
| Nodes: | 16 (2 / 14) |
| Uptime: | 148:15:41 |
| Calls: | 6,611 |
| Calls today: | 1 |
| Files: | 12,162 |
| Messages: | 5,310,926 |