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Iceland's potentially imminent eruption in the Reykjanes Peninsula is part
of a 1,000-year cycle of volcanic activity that will likely cause
eruptions for centuries, scientists say.

"Time's finally up," Edward W. Marshall, a researcher at the University of Iceland's Nordic Volcanological Center, told Live Science in an email. "We
can get ready for another few hundred years of eruptions on the
Reykjanes."

Seismic activity began increasing in the south of the peninsula in
October, with hundreds of earthquakes recorded there each day. On Nov. 10, authorities evacuated the town of Grindavík, with experts warning an
volcanic eruption could take place in just days.

According to the Icelandic Met Office (IMO), a magma tunnel stretching 9.3 miles (15 kilometers) formed beneath the ground between Sundhnúkur in the
north and Grindavík. The area affected also encompasses the Blue Lagoon geothermal spa — a tourist hotspot that attracts hundreds of thousands of visitors annually.

Related: Underwater volcanic eruption gives birth to new island in the
Pacific

Magma in the tunnel — also known as a dike — appears to be rising to the surface, and there is a high risk of it breaking through. The greatest
area of magma upwelling is currently close to Sundhnúkur, about 2 miles
(3.5 km) northeast of Grindavík, according to the IMO. Researchers believe
the amount of magma in the tunnel is "significantly more" than what was
present during the eruptions at Fagradalsfjall, which sparked back to life
in 2021 after more than 800 years of inactivity.

That 2021 eruption marked the start of a new cycle of volcanic activity on
the Reykjanes Peninsula. Geological records show periods of inactivity
last between 600 and 1,200 years, which is then followed by pulses of
eruptions lasting between 200 and 500 years, Clive Oppenheimer, a
professor of volcanology at the University of Cambridge in the U.K., told
Live Science in an email.

"It looks like 2021 kicked off a new eruptive phase which might see the
several fault zones crossing the [Reykjanes Peninsula] firing on and off
for centuries," he said.

The Reykjanes Peninsula sits above two tectonic plates that are being
pulled apart. The strain that builds up is released in bursts as part of
the cycle. "We are now in one of these pulses," David Pyle, a
volcanologist and professor of Earth sciences at the University of Oxford,
U.K, told Live Science in an email. "Each eruption releases just a bit
more of the stored-up strain, and eventually, when all of that strain has
been released, then the eruptions will stop."

It is currently unclear if an eruption will take place as a result of the
magma tunnel. "These sorts of dikes are actually a tectonic, not a
magmatic feature. In other words, the lava is filling a fracture, not
forcing its way into the rock," Marshall said.

Should a fissure emerge, an eruption could last for several weeks. The
large amount of magma involved compared with previous eruptions in the
region could result in more lava flow at the surface, Oppenheimer said.

What happens next is a waiting game, Marshall said. "I predict — if an
eruption occurs — that it will occur between a few days to threeish weeks.
If it hasn't erupted in three weeks, I don't think it will happen. Cooling
will begin to close the fractures."

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/volcanos/times-finally-up- impending-iceland-eruption-is-part-of-centuries-long-volcanic-pulse

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