The climate change -global warming world war projected:
Here I suppose that ancient greed is modern greed and wars continue in the ancient vain of territory gain.
I added 11 modern wars with territory gain estimated and one ancient war (fall of ancient Persian Empire):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greco-Persian_Wars
and then, I added a World War III as a Turchen-Climate war in 2026.
This model is set in 7 cycles of 7 Kondratieff -Jubilee cycles and
gives a 51 year long cycle. Why 2026? I did a weather/rainfall projection
and 2026 is when the global warming dry cycle ends ( with massive hurricanes world wide
caused by temperature rise, ice melting and human produced CO2).
Solve[N[(2026 + 500)/x] - 49 == 0, x]
{{x -> 51.551}}
N[(2026 + 500)/(7*51.55102040816327)]
7.
The fall of the modern civilization in a prolonged world war over the climate changing world’s limited resources.
(Mathematica)
(* page154:Raoul Naroll: Deterrence in History:Theory and \
Research on the Causes of War, Dean G. Pruit and Richard C. Snyder*)
(* {x,y,z}={year, duration months,gain of territory}: 11 modern wars and \ projected Turchin-Global Warming world war *)
w = {{-499, 50*12, 100}, {-225,
49, 34}, {-25, 37, 57}, {176, 49, 49}, {376, 55, 40}, {576, 66, 61}, {1276,
37, 40}, {1576, 66, 38}, {1676, 51, 60}, {1776, 55, 34}, {1376, 45,
61}, {1476, 44, 58}, {1576, 37, 49}, {1476, 42, 63}, {776, 56, 50}, {-125,
66, 59}, {-25, 37, 50}, {776, 52, 49}, {1076, 49, 49}, {1376, 39,
60}, {1803, 9*12, 60}, {1860, 4*12, 50}, {1912, 7*12, 100}, {1937, 6*12,
100}, {1953, 4*12, 50}, {1964, 9*12, 50}, {1979, 10*12, 50}, {1990, 5,
25}, {2003, 8*12, 25}, {2014, 3*12, 50}, {2001, 17*12, 50}, {2026, 6*12,
100}}
s = Sum[w[[i, 3]], {i, Length[w]}]
ListPointPlot3D[w, ColorFunction -> "Rainbow", Background -> Black,
ImageSize -> 1000]
(* Function as Gaussian events with sigma as the scaled duration of conflict \ and magnitude as territorial gain*)
f[x_] = Sum[
w[[i, 3]]Exp[-(x - w[[i, 1]])^2/(2(w[[i, 2]]/(5.5*12))^2)], {i,
Length[w]}];
g1 = Plot[f[x], {x, -500, 2040}, PlotRange -> All, ImageSize -> 1000,
PlotStyle -> Red]
g[x_] = D[f[x], {x, 1}];
g2 = Plot[g[x], {x, -500, 2040}, PlotRange -> All, ImageSize -> 1000,
PlotStyle -> Green]
h[x_] = D[f[x], {x, 2}];
g3 = Plot[h[x], {x, -500, 2040}, PlotRange -> All, ImageSize -> 1000,
PlotStyle -> Cyan]
(* linearized polynomial fit to the Gaussian distribution*)
t = Table[f[x], {x, -500, 2040, 1/20}];
j[x_] = Fit[t, Table[x^i, {i, Length[w]}], x]
(* scaled to the output graph*)
g4 =
Plot[5*j[20*x + 500*20], {x, -500, 2100},
PlotRange -> {{-500, 2100}, {-50, 150}}, ImageSize -> 1000,
PlotStyle -> Black]
Show[{g1, g2, g4}]
a = NIntegrate[f[x], {x, -500, 2020}]
s/a
b = Integrate[12*j[20*x + 500*20], {x, -500, 2020}]
b/a
(end)
Doom and Gloom isn't real popular, but people really need to know the way the arrow is pointing!
I've been studying historical cycles since the late 70's. The 7 long cycles/50 year cycles that goes with the rise and fall of civilizations is called the "year of years" cycle even though it is shorter than 365 years. The causation of the cycles in
ancient times was mostly climate cycles that depended on solar intensity ( sun spot cycle), which I found has a certain Cantor like dimensional dependence. The current crisis is really a multiplied climate cycle magnified by human CO2 production that
traps heat in the atmosphere. That the world situation will come to a world war is just a best guess that the calculation seems to support. China against the USA and Europe would be the best bet....
This is one time I really hope I’m wrong.
https://plus.google.com/photos/110803890168343196795/album/6613033002651352673/6613033002852651762?authkey=CLPtxJys94Whfw&sqid=105666856644891680204&ssid=ff5a5216-4bca-4da5-a044-148e83b553d4
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