• Why experts say a solar storm could cause trillions of dollars worth of

    From useapen@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 22 09:27:58 2023
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.global-warming, talk.politics.guns
    XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh

    The sun is beginning to enter a more active time for flares that cause
    solar storms that can impact the Earth.

    As Earth enters this new phase, experts have been discussing how these
    solar storms could affect modern advancements on the planet and even lead
    to what a team from George Mason University called an “internet
    apocalypse.”

    “The internet has come of age during a time when the sun has been
    relatively quiet, and now it’s entering a more active time,” Professor
    Peter Becker of George Mason University told Fox Weather. “It’s the first
    time in human history that there’s been an intersection of increased solar activity with our dependence on the internet and our global economic
    dependence on the internet.”

    When was the last solar flare?
    Solar flares aren’t rare, but they do rarely hit Earth.

    As the sun’s solar cycle begins to hit its peak, more solar storms caused
    by flares will be likely, according to the National Oceanic and
    Atmospheric Administration.

    On Aug. 5, a strong solar flare erupted from the sun’s surface but there weren’t any resounding effects, per NASA.

    According to NASA, flares become dangerous when they bypass Earth’s
    natural defenses, like its magnetic fields, and hit the surface of the
    planet.

    What happens if a solar flare hits Earth?
    When solar flares do hit Earth, they can wreak havoc to electronics and communication systems.

    NOAA warns that GPS systems and radio signals can be disturbed by a solar storm.

    What if the 1859 solar storm happened today?
    The largest solar storm on record is called the Carrington Event from
    1859, per NASA. During the event, the flare caused geomagnetic chaos as it sparked fires on telegraphs and disrupted the whole communication system
    of the day.

    “Such technological chaos could cripple economies and endanger the safety
    and livelihoods of people worldwide,” wrote NASA.

    Could a solar flare wipe out the Internet?
    Becker told Fox Weather that these stronger storms could have the
    potential to wipe out the internet unless the technology is “hardened” or
    if a proper warning is given.

    Will there be a solar storm in 2025?
    NASA predicts, based on the sun’s 11-year cycle, that a large flare called
    a “solar maximum” will happen sometime in 2025, which experts are
    preparing for.

    Can we prepare for a solar flare?
    New technology such as artificial intelligence has been used and is being developed by NASA to better predict sun flares up to 30 minutes in advance
    — the system is called DAGGER.

    “With this AI, it is now possible to make rapid and accurate global
    predictions and inform decisions in the event of a solar storm, thereby minimizing — or even preventing — devastation to modern society,” Vishal Upendran, of the Inter-University Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics in India, told NASA.

    Just like hurricane and tornado warnings, experts may one day develop
    solar storm sirens to warn of an upcoming event.

    https://www.deseret.com/2023/11/14/23960735/what-is-solar-storm

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  • From R Kym Horsell@21:1/5 to useapen on Wed Nov 22 13:06:07 2023
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.global-warming, talk.politics.guns
    XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh

    In alt.global-warming useapen <yourdime@outlook.com> wrote:
    The sun is beginning to enter a more active time for flares that cause
    solar storms that can impact the Earth.
    As Earth enters this new phase, experts have been discussing how these
    solar storms could affect modern advancements on the planet and even lead
    to what a team from George Mason University called an ?internet
    apocalypse.?
    ...

    I have no data on "internet events" but us power outages certainly
    are highly related to geo magnetic storms. It seems the US grid takes
    great pains to avoid problems. But the opposite seems to be true of
    windstorms.

    Looking at geomagnetic events over the past 20y we find a huge -ve
    correlation with US power outages.
    2002 209
    2003 396
    2004 299
    2005 263
    2006 170
    2007 130
    2008 93
    2009 39
    2010 88
    2011 95
    2012 135
    2013 99
    2014 112
    2015 324
    2016 278
    2017 275
    2018 131
    2019 89
    2020 57
    2021 64
    (ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/alerts)

    Stats tests against number of US power outages:
    y = -0.224288*x + 300.005
    P(beta<0.000000) = 0.847111
    Rank test: Spearman corr = -0.438596
    critical value = .388; reject H0:not_connected at 5% sig

    A similar situation for both proton and electron
    events.

    Yet when it comes to windstorms:

    2000 16872 31 165.546**
    2001 16107 15 162.244**
    2002 16401 34 163.513**
    2003 15159 78 158.152*
    2004 15789 102 160.872
    2005 15644 90 160.246*
    2006 18205 109 171.3*
    2007 16829 86 165.361*
    2008 23447 171 193.928
    2009 18280 106 171.624*
    2010 20697 138 182.057
    2011 26943 356 209.018**
    2012 21973 264 187.565*
    2013 18231 218 171.413
    2014 18331 245 171.844*
    2015 17214 191 167.023
    2016 19498 155 176.882
    P(beta>0.000000) = 0.921111
    Rank test: Spearman corr = 0.784314
    critical value = .5825; reject H0:not_connected at 1% sig

    The squeaky wheel gits the greese.

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  • From Siri Cruise@21:1/5 to R Kym Horsell on Wed Nov 22 11:39:51 2023
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.global-warming, talk.politics.guns
    XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh

    R Kym Horsell wrote:
    In alt.global-warming useapen<yourdime@outlook.com> wrote:
    The sun is beginning to enter a more active time for flares that cause
    solar storms that can impact the Earth.
    As Earth enters this new phase, experts have been discussing how these
    solar storms could affect modern advancements on the planet and even lead
    to what a team from George Mason University called an ?internet
    apocalypse.?
    ...

    I have no data on "internet events" but us power outages certainly
    are highly related to geo magnetic storms. It seems the US grid takes
    great pains to avoid problems. But the opposite seems to be true of windstorms.


    Solar winds and flares have no effect on the surface except to
    make pretty lights in the sky. There's also the inverse squared
    rule so electromagnetic fields of a lightning strike in your yard
    is stronger than the sun's.

    The earth is starting a pole flip. I've seen at one Chicken Little
    warning us with dread. Which ignores the earth has had many pole
    flips and none has a correlated mass extinction.

    Sunspots affect the upper atmosphere where radio waves reflected,
    so they affect radio but not things down here at the bottom.

    --
    Siri Seal of Disavowal #000-001. Disavowed. Denied. @
    'I desire mercy, not sacrifice.' /|\
    The Church of the Holey Apple .signature 3.2 / \
    of Discordian Mysteries. This post insults Islam. Mohamed

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  • From Governor Swill@21:1/5 to Siri Cruise on Thu Nov 23 16:22:48 2023
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.global-warming, talk.politics.guns
    XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh

    On Wed, 22 Nov 2023 11:39:51 -0800, Siri Cruise <chine.bleu@www.yahoo.com> wrote:

    R Kym Horsell wrote:
    In alt.global-warming useapen<yourdime@outlook.com> wrote:
    The sun is beginning to enter a more active time for flares that cause
    solar storms that can impact the Earth.
    As Earth enters this new phase, experts have been discussing how these
    solar storms could affect modern advancements on the planet and even lead >>> to what a team from George Mason University called an ?internet
    apocalypse.?
    ...

    I have no data on "internet events" but us power outages certainly
    are highly related to geo magnetic storms. It seems the US grid takes
    great pains to avoid problems. But the opposite seems to be true of
    windstorms.


    Solar winds and flares have no effect on the surface except to
    make pretty lights in the sky.

    Then no effect on the surface at all? As you say, those lights are in the sky, not down
    here.

    There's also the inverse squared
    rule so electromagnetic fields of a lightning strike in your yard
    is stronger than the sun's.

    The earth is starting a pole flip. I've seen at one Chicken Little
    warning us with dread. Which ignores the earth has had many pole
    flips and none has a correlated mass extinction.

    Sunspots affect the upper atmosphere where radio waves reflected,
    so they affect radio but not things down here at the bottom.

    They also knock out satellites, which disrupts communication and trade. So yes, Virginia,
    sunspots DO have effects "down here".

    Swill
    --
    "I don't want everybody to vote. As a matter of fact, our leverage in
    the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down."
    - Paul Weyrich, co founder of Heritage Foundation and Moral Majority

    Not left, not right, https://www.forwardparty.com/

    Heroyam slava! Glory to the Heroes!

    Sláva Ukrajíni! Glory to Ukraine!

    Putin tse prezervatyv! Putin is a condom!

    Go here to donate to Ukrainian relief. <https://www2.deloitte.com/ua/uk/pages/registration-forms/help-cities.html>

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  • From R Kym Horsell@21:1/5 to Governor Swill on Thu Nov 23 23:48:54 2023
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.global-warming, talk.politics.guns
    XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh

    In alt.astronomy Governor Swill <governor.swill@gmail.com> wrote:
    On Wed, 22 Nov 2023 11:39:51 -0800, Siri Cruise <chine.bleu@www.yahoo.com> wrote:
    R Kym Horsell wrote:
    In alt.global-warming useapen<yourdime@outlook.com> wrote:
    The sun is beginning to enter a more active time for flares that cause >>>> solar storms that can impact the Earth.
    As Earth enters this new phase, experts have been discussing how these >>>> solar storms could affect modern advancements on the planet and even lead >>>> to what a team from George Mason University called an ?internet
    apocalypse.?
    ...
    I have no data on "internet events" but us power outages certainly
    are highly related to geo magnetic storms. It seems the US grid takes
    great pains to avoid problems. But the opposite seems to be true of
    windstorms.
    Solar winds and flares have no effect on the surface except to
    make pretty lights in the sky.
    Then no effect on the surface at all? As you say, those lights are in the sky, not down
    here.
    There's also the inverse squared
    rule so electromagnetic fields of a lightning strike in your yard
    is stronger than the sun's.
    The earth is starting a pole flip. I've seen at one Chicken Little
    warning us with dread. Which ignores the earth has had many pole
    flips and none has a correlated mass extinction.
    Sunspots affect the upper atmosphere where radio waves reflected,
    so they affect radio but not things down here at the bottom.
    They also knock out satellites, which disrupts communication and trade. So yes, Virginia,
    sunspots DO have effects "down here".
    ...

    In science we dont take anyone's word for anything. Perhaps moreso
    anonymous posters x-posting from politics groups. (Just sayin;).

    From the US govt GPS reports you can cull the number of major
    outages to the system (there are fine-grained things as well).

    But on month-by-month outages in available reports we find

    Suspect Lag(m) Trans R2
    sunspots 4 0.32410852
    xflare-count 0 -x 0.17166137
    electron-event 3 0.08702234
    geomagnetic-event 4 -x 0.03932141
    xflare-flux 12 -x 0.01719371

    The "suspect" datasets were ARMA(1,1) regressed against the monthly
    outage numbers. All care was taken. All tests had to pass at better than
    10% sig (90% confidence) a T-test and a rank test. I.e. we are "sure"
    there is a relationship. All the betas are +ve meaning months with
    more Xflares, Sunspots, Electron events, Geomag storms mean more GSP
    outages.

    The R2 show the percent of outages across the whole dataset that
    are explained by the relevant factor.

    But the very interesting thing for me is apart from the number of X flares
    in a month all the others show up as effects months later.

    X flares (the count, anyway) shows up in the same month as the outages.
    For some reason the aggregate scale of the flares doesnt show up
    strongly until 12 m later.

    Design your sat's accordingly. :)

    --
    <kaggle.com/kymhorsell1>

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