You wake up to a dark, dreary, glum morning. For the 547th consecutive...
day. Just 18 months prior, you were a hard-working farmer gearing up for another bountiful crop season.
But then the skies went dark. And they stayed dark?day after day, month
after month?from early 536 to 537. Across much of Eastern Europe and throughout Asia, spring turned into summer and fall gave way to winter without a day of sunshine. Like a blackout curtain over the sun, millions
of people across the world's most populated countries squinted through dim conditions, breathing in the chokingly thick air and losing nearly every
crop they were relying on to harvest.
This isn't the plot of a dystopian TV drama or a fantastical "docufiction" production.
This was a harsh reality for the millions of people who lived through that literally dark time or, as some historians have declared, the very "worst year ever to be alive."
"For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon,
during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear nor such as it is accustomed to
shed," was the grim account Procopius, a prominent scholar who became the principal Byzantine historian of the 6th century, gave in History of the Wars. "And from the time when this thing happened men were free neither
from war nor pestilence nor any other thing leading to death."
Some 1,500 years later, Harvard University medieval historian Michael McCormick has reached a similarly grim conclusion about not just 536, but
the dreadful decade that followed. For people living across Europe in 536, "it was the beginning of one of the worst periods to be alive, if not the worst year," McCormick said.
As McCormick told AccuWeather, it was all set off by rapid, drastic
climate change. In the spring of 536, he noted that a volcanic eruption triggered the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). Its ramifications, on
top of ensuing eruptions in 540 and 547, were devastating.
Extreme volcanic events CAN happen - and DO happen - but...
you can never predict WHEN exactly. As such they remain
"acts of god".
[Sock home groups cut:]
In sci.environment sock #71 wrote:
You wake up to a dark, dreary, glum morning. For the 547th consecutive
day. Just 18 months prior, you were a hard-working farmer gearing up for another bountiful crop season.
But then the skies went dark. And they stayed dark?day after day, month after month?from early 536 to 537. Across much of Eastern Europe and throughout Asia, spring turned into summer and fall gave way to winter without a day of sunshine. Like a blackout curtain over the sun, millions of people across the world's most populated countries squinted through dim conditions, breathing in the chokingly thick air and losing nearly every crop they were relying on to harvest.
This isn't the plot of a dystopian TV drama or a fantastical "docufiction" production.
This was a harsh reality for the millions of people who lived through that literally dark time or, as some historians have declared, the very "worst year ever to be alive."
"For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon,
during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear nor such as it is accustomed to
shed," was the grim account Procopius, a prominent scholar who became the principal Byzantine historian of the 6th century, gave in History of the Wars. "And from the time when this thing happened men were free neither from war nor pestilence nor any other thing leading to death."
Some 1,500 years later, Harvard University medieval historian Michael McCormick has reached a similarly grim conclusion about not just 536, but the dreadful decade that followed. For people living across Europe in 536, "it was the beginning of one of the worst periods to be alive, if not the worst year," McCormick said.
As McCormick told AccuWeather, it was all set off by rapid, drastic...
climate change. In the spring of 536, he noted that a volcanic eruption triggered the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). Its ramifications, on top of ensuing eruptions in 540 and 547, were devastating.
Objectively, we can check out any of these historical things on
the population.
I have a database of the avg age at death for people born in
the N Hem ad1-ad1000.
We can set up the hypothesis that something in 540ad affected
health so much that the age at death for people born before that time
and those born after that time are different.
But both the T-test and Spearman rank test say there is no significant effect.
Data:
People born in year After 539 Avg age Model predicts
(1==yes) at death
376 0 35 65.3182*
387 0 77 65.3182
390 0 88 65.3182*
406 0 48 65.3182*
410 0 76 65.3182
455 0 72 65.3182
465 0 47 65.3182*
480 0 54.5 65.3182
483 0 83 65.3182*
505 0 61 65.3182
521 0 77 65.3182
540 1 65 66.5
560 1 77 66.5
570 1 63 66.5
585 1 49 66.5*
598 1 63 66.5
635 1 53 66.5
673 1 63 66.5
675 1 80 66.5
721 1 95 66.5*
735 1 70 66.5
742 1 73 66.5
763 1 47 66.5*
So the regr predicts age at death before and after the event are
very very similar 65.3 years and 66.5 years.
Turns out the different is not statistically significant:
y = 1.18182*x + 65.3182
beta in 1.18182 +- 11.1011 90% CO
T-test: P(beta>0) = 0.571796
Rank-test: Spearman corr = 0.049407; critical value 2-sided at 5% = .351
decision: accept H0:not_related
I.e. the horrifc event had not noticable effect on life expectancy
ergo the artical is all light and color and little fact.
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