• When the Sun Disappeared: Historians Detail 'Worst Year' Ever To Be Ali

    From ratman@21:1/5 to All on Tue Oct 11 04:02:05 2022
    XPost: ne.weather, alt.checkmate, talk.politics.guns
    XPost: talk.politics.misc

    You wake up to a dark, dreary, glum morning. For the 547th consecutive
    day. Just 18 months prior, you were a hard-working farmer gearing up for another bountiful crop season.

    But then the skies went dark. And they stayed dark—day after day, month
    after month—from early 536 to 537. Across much of Eastern Europe and
    throughout Asia, spring turned into summer and fall gave way to winter
    without a day of sunshine. Like a blackout curtain over the sun, millions
    of people across the world's most populated countries squinted through dim conditions, breathing in the chokingly thick air and losing nearly every
    crop they were relying on to harvest.

    This isn't the plot of a dystopian TV drama or a fantastical "docufiction" production.

    This was a harsh reality for the millions of people who lived through that literally dark time or, as some historians have declared, the very "worst
    year ever to be alive."

    "For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon,
    during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse,
    for the beams it shed were not clear nor such as it is accustomed to
    shed," was the grim account Procopius, a prominent scholar who became the principal Byzantine historian of the 6th century, gave in History of the
    Wars. "And from the time when this thing happened men were free neither
    from war nor pestilence nor any other thing leading to death."

    Some 1,500 years later, Harvard University medieval historian Michael
    McCormick has reached a similarly grim conclusion about not just 536, but
    the dreadful decade that followed. For people living across Europe in 536,
    "it was the beginning of one of the worst periods to be alive, if not the
    worst year," McCormick said.

    As McCormick told AccuWeather, it was all set off by rapid, drastic
    climate change. In the spring of 536, he noted that a volcanic eruption triggered the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). Its ramifications, on
    top of ensuing eruptions in 540 and 547, were devastating.

    "Aerosols for the big volcanic eruptions blocked solar radiation, dropping
    the solar heating of the Earth's surface," he told AccuWeather, adding
    that climate analysis from Cambridge University in the U.K. done on tree
    rings show the average summer temperature "dropped by between 1.5 and 2.5
    C across Eurasia."

    That's up to 2.7 to 4.5 F cooler due to the heavy smog left behind after
    the eruption. The skies remained dimmed for up to 18 months, multiple historical witnesses recounted, triggering the dark year of turmoil that
    earned 536 its dubious distinction.

    Weather patterns were severely affected by the blocked sunlight, leading
    to summer snowfall in China and the lowest temperature levels in more than 2,300 years, according to recorded historical accounts and climate reconstruction analysis.

    In the Middle East, China, and Europe, a dense fog was an inescapable
    daily nightmare while widespread agricultural challenges in Ireland
    resulted in a "failure of bread from the years 536-539 AD," according to
    The Gaelic Irish Annals.

    Much of scientists' understanding of the impacts of the Iceland volcano
    was found during the Historical Ice Core Project, a partnership between
    the University of Maine and Harvard University that McCormick co-led along
    with Professor Paul Mayewski of the Climate Change Institute. Using ice
    core samples from Iceland, the team mapped out an archeological timeline
    to pinpoint when and where the initial volcanic eruption must have
    occurred in Iceland. Its impacts were widespread and deadly.

    "Ancient eyewitnesses report that the sun stopped shining brightly for 14-
    18 months," McCormick said. "The result was several years of failed
    harvests, famines, causing migrations and turbulence across Eurasia."

    While the 6th-century outbreak of the bubonic plague may be less
    remembered than the 14th-century reoccurrence of the disease (which came
    to be known as the Black Death), the 6th-century pandemic was still
    responsible for destroying at least one-third of the eastern Roman Empire population, leading to its collapse.

    Dubbed the Justinian Pandemic or the Plague of Justinian, the disease
    spread throughout Roman Egypt before infecting the rest of the world over
    the ensuing 200 years. McCormick said ancient DNA has shown the disease- causing pathogen to beYersinia pestis, bubonic plague, a disease of rats
    and other rodents that spilled into human populations.

    In the wake of the climate-altering volcanic eruptions and darkened year
    of 536, McCormick said the situation was fatally ripe for the plague to
    wreak havoc.

    Although he said there has yet to be a precise link established between
    the abrupt onset of the LALIA and the Justinian Pandemic, McCormick said
    "it seems likely that, for instance, the food shortages caused by the
    sudden cooling in many parts of Eurasia weakened the populations and made
    them more susceptible to the pathogen." The famines almost certainly led
    to mass migrations of people as well, he said, likely carrying the disease
    with them.

    Compared to the modern-day hardships dealt by COVID-19, the differences
    are shocking.

    "You have to take the period as a whole," he said, adding that "536 was
    just the beginning of a very tough time. The plague pandemic on top of the abrupt cooling must have been very difficult. Today COVID-19 is terrible,
    but compare the death rate for bubonic plague." He pointed to the 1.8% case-fatality ratio in the United States compared to the 40% to 60%
    mortality rate for untreated bubonic plague.

    So just how massive must those volcanic eruptions have been?

    Mayewski, a glaciologist from the University of Maine, was also heavily involved in the Historical Ice Core Project and he told Science Magazine
    that his team was able to analyze 2,000 years' worth of historic, natural disasters taken from a 72-meter drilling in Iceland that presented the researchers with a historical timeline of element levels.

    Using a laser to carve 120-micron slivers of ice from the core, scientists could analyze the element spikes and drops of different moments in history
    to line them up with disasters that helped better piece together our understanding of what shaped the world we live in today.

    In the ice sample from the spring of 536, graduate student Laura Hartman
    and volcanologist Andrei Kurbatov found microscopic particles of volcanic glass, which closely matched glass particles previously found in lakes
    around Europe, and an ice core sample taken from Greenland.

    Kurbatov concluded that the perfectly disastrous mix of winds and weather
    in 536 must have guided the plume across Europe and into Asia, casting a
    chilly pall as the volcanic fog "rolled through."

    Other researchers also believe that the Icelandic 536 eruption emitted
    thick ash that spread across the Northern Hemisphere, pumping large
    quantities of sulfate into the atmosphere, according to a 2015 article in Smithsonian magazine.

    On top of that eruption, other studies conducted recently have suggested
    that there could have been more than one volcano responsible for that time period's tragedies.

    The other notable blast, researchers say, is believed to have been one of
    the strongest eruptions of the last 10,000 years, likely only comparable
    to the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora.

    That Mount Tambora eruption also led to a similarly bleak year, as much of
    1816 was also shrouded in darkness, leading to unprecedented low
    temperatures and hundreds of thousands of deaths from the eruption and starvation due to that season's failed crops. That time period became
    known as "The Year Without a Summer." In the U.S., snow fell in June in
    New York and Maine while heavy frosts and ice storms occurred as late as
    July in the region.

    In the 6th century, the other history-altering volcano erupted about 5,000 miles away from Iceland in Central America, with a volcanic blast more
    than a hundred times stronger than the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Researcher Robert Dull told National Geographic.

    A team of researchers published a study in the Quaternary Science Reviews, placing the location of the eruption in central El Salvador from the
    dormant Ilopango. Today, a lake the size of 28 square miles sits in the volcanic caldera left behind.

    "This is the largest eruption in Central America that human beings have
    ever witnessed," Dull, a geologist at California Lutheran University, told
    the publication. "The importance of the event is even greater, both how
    the Maya overcame it and how it impacted what happened next."

    The pair of cataclysmic eruptions are believed to have combined to trigger
    the following decade's years of disease, famine, and tragedy.

    Using historical dating techniques such as tree ring analysis and stable
    carbon isotope records, the researchers presented a model to depict just
    how brutal life was for people alive at that time.

    The dust veil, they say, reduced normal levels of solar radiation and thus ruined years of crop harvests, and "contributed to remarkably simultaneous outbreaks of famine," leaving humans with a long-term lack of Vitamin D,
    which diminished health and quality of life in those years of darkness.

    McCormick said that as more natural climate records and LALIA
    reconstructions are better understood, scientists will be able to better understand how that dust veil drastically changed the weather in different parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

    "The Arabian peninsula, for instance, might have become a little less dry, while the effect seems more dramatic and negative north of the
    Mediterranean," he said. "So far, most of the natural climate records from which the LALIA has been reconstructed come from Eurasia and North
    America, so more northerly latitudes."

    Even if it may sound hard to believe given the past 100 years of multiple
    World Wars and numerous, devastating pandemics, McCormick told History.com
    that the horrifying period of history was not blown out of proportion by witness accounts.

    "It was a pretty drastic change; it happened overnight," he said. "The
    ancient witnesses really were on to something. They were not being
    hysterical or imagining the end of the world."

    Produced in association with AccuWeather.

    This story was provided to Newsweek by Zenger News.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/when-the-sun-disappeared- historians-detail-worst-year-ever-to-be-alive/ar- AA12NxLH?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=79f6a1785bf54f4085e8728ca5b186b7

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From R Kym Horsell@21:1/5 to All on Tue Oct 11 05:06:17 2022
    XPost: talk.politics.guns

    [Sock home groups cut:]
    In sci.environment sock #71 wrote:
    You wake up to a dark, dreary, glum morning. For the 547th consecutive
    day. Just 18 months prior, you were a hard-working farmer gearing up for another bountiful crop season.

    But then the skies went dark. And they stayed dark?day after day, month
    after month?from early 536 to 537. Across much of Eastern Europe and throughout Asia, spring turned into summer and fall gave way to winter without a day of sunshine. Like a blackout curtain over the sun, millions
    of people across the world's most populated countries squinted through dim conditions, breathing in the chokingly thick air and losing nearly every
    crop they were relying on to harvest.

    This isn't the plot of a dystopian TV drama or a fantastical "docufiction" production.

    This was a harsh reality for the millions of people who lived through that literally dark time or, as some historians have declared, the very "worst year ever to be alive."

    "For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon,
    during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear nor such as it is accustomed to
    shed," was the grim account Procopius, a prominent scholar who became the principal Byzantine historian of the 6th century, gave in History of the Wars. "And from the time when this thing happened men were free neither
    from war nor pestilence nor any other thing leading to death."

    Some 1,500 years later, Harvard University medieval historian Michael McCormick has reached a similarly grim conclusion about not just 536, but
    the dreadful decade that followed. For people living across Europe in 536, "it was the beginning of one of the worst periods to be alive, if not the worst year," McCormick said.

    As McCormick told AccuWeather, it was all set off by rapid, drastic
    climate change. In the spring of 536, he noted that a volcanic eruption triggered the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). Its ramifications, on
    top of ensuing eruptions in 540 and 547, were devastating.
    ...

    Objectively, we can check out any of these historical things on
    the population.

    I have a database of the avg age at death for people born in
    the N Hem ad1-ad1000.

    We can set up the hypothesis that something in 540ad affected
    health so much that the age at death for people born before that time
    and those born after that time are different.

    But both the T-test and Spearman rank test say there is no significant effect.

    Data:
    People born in year After 539 Avg age Model predicts
    (1==yes) at death
    376 0 35 65.3182*
    387 0 77 65.3182
    390 0 88 65.3182*
    406 0 48 65.3182*
    410 0 76 65.3182
    455 0 72 65.3182
    465 0 47 65.3182*
    480 0 54.5 65.3182
    483 0 83 65.3182*
    505 0 61 65.3182
    521 0 77 65.3182
    540 1 65 66.5
    560 1 77 66.5
    570 1 63 66.5
    585 1 49 66.5*
    598 1 63 66.5
    635 1 53 66.5
    673 1 63 66.5
    675 1 80 66.5
    721 1 95 66.5*
    735 1 70 66.5
    742 1 73 66.5
    763 1 47 66.5*

    So the regr predicts age at death before and after the event are
    very very similar 65.3 years and 66.5 years.

    Turns out the different is not statistically significant:

    y = 1.18182*x + 65.3182
    beta in 1.18182 +- 11.1011 90% CO
    T-test: P(beta>0) = 0.571796
    Rank-test: Spearman corr = 0.049407; critical value 2-sided at 5% = .351
    decision: accept H0:not_related

    I.e. the horrifc event had not noticable effect on life expectancy
    ergo the artical is all light and color and little fact.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From 26C.Z968@21:1/5 to All on Tue Oct 11 01:44:36 2022
    XPost: ne.weather, alt.checkmate, talk.politics.guns
    XPost: talk.politics.misc

    Extreme volcanic events CAN happen - and DO happen - but
    you can never predict WHEN exactly. As such they remain
    "acts of god".

    And no, there's NO defense. No WAY to save-up enough food
    for everyone ........

    Yea, yea, you can use nuclear reactor power to synthesize
    carbs, even basic proteins/amino-acids .... but is anybody
    set up to DO that ? Would even the starving EAT such nasty
    crap ? Don't you need that power for OTHER stuff too ?

    Oh yea, the Greenies hate nuke too ... they already had
    talked Germany into shutting down most of its nuke plants.
    Oops .......

    Face it ... the Greenies want to KILL like 90% of those
    evil awful HUMANS. That's their end-game. I guess ants
    and beetles are more important ... reset to 100 million
    years ago ... waiting for the next Big Rock to fall ....

    Love your people, your family, your kids ? DON'T
    VOTE LEFTY ever again.

    No, they're not entirely wrong about 'GW' ... but
    they've been pushing an energy agenda that's NOT
    POSSIBLE in the shorter term - one that will KILL
    billions fast and horribly.

    Oh ... DON'T VOTE FASCIST either - just as bad in
    different ways. Sanity and survival lies somewhere
    in the sensible center.

    'Nuf said.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From R Kym Horsell@21:1/5 to 26C.Z968@noada.net on Tue Oct 11 10:16:52 2022
    XPost: talk.politics.guns

    In sci.environment 26C.Z968 <26C.Z968@noada.net> wrote:
    Extreme volcanic events CAN happen - and DO happen - but
    you can never predict WHEN exactly. As such they remain
    "acts of god".
    ...

    So like crossing a road then.

    Crossing a flooded road of course is something totally else.

    --
    US weather fatalities 1950-present
    Agegroup
    (10ys)
    unk 2597
    0 720
    10 1090
    20 1532
    30 1546
    40 1833
    50 2121 <-- middle aged men that drive into flooded roads
    60 1830
    70 1718
    80 1260
    90 323
    100 8

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From country wagon@21:1/5 to R Kym Horsell on Tue Oct 11 17:13:56 2022
    XPost: talk.politics.guns

    In article <ti2tk8$lf2$1@gioia.aioe.org>
    R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> wrote:

    [Sock home groups cut:]
    In sci.environment sock #71 wrote:
    You wake up to a dark, dreary, glum morning. For the 547th consecutive
    day. Just 18 months prior, you were a hard-working farmer gearing up for another bountiful crop season.

    But then the skies went dark. And they stayed dark?day after day, month after month?from early 536 to 537. Across much of Eastern Europe and throughout Asia, spring turned into summer and fall gave way to winter without a day of sunshine. Like a blackout curtain over the sun, millions of people across the world's most populated countries squinted through dim conditions, breathing in the chokingly thick air and losing nearly every crop they were relying on to harvest.

    This isn't the plot of a dystopian TV drama or a fantastical "docufiction" production.

    This was a harsh reality for the millions of people who lived through that literally dark time or, as some historians have declared, the very "worst year ever to be alive."

    "For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon,
    during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear nor such as it is accustomed to
    shed," was the grim account Procopius, a prominent scholar who became the principal Byzantine historian of the 6th century, gave in History of the Wars. "And from the time when this thing happened men were free neither from war nor pestilence nor any other thing leading to death."

    Some 1,500 years later, Harvard University medieval historian Michael McCormick has reached a similarly grim conclusion about not just 536, but the dreadful decade that followed. For people living across Europe in 536, "it was the beginning of one of the worst periods to be alive, if not the worst year," McCormick said.

    As McCormick told AccuWeather, it was all set off by rapid, drastic
    climate change. In the spring of 536, he noted that a volcanic eruption triggered the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). Its ramifications, on top of ensuing eruptions in 540 and 547, were devastating.
    ...

    Objectively, we can check out any of these historical things on
    the population.

    I have a database of the avg age at death for people born in
    the N Hem ad1-ad1000.

    We can set up the hypothesis that something in 540ad affected
    health so much that the age at death for people born before that time
    and those born after that time are different.

    But both the T-test and Spearman rank test say there is no significant effect.

    Data:
    People born in year After 539 Avg age Model predicts
    (1==yes) at death
    376 0 35 65.3182*
    387 0 77 65.3182
    390 0 88 65.3182*
    406 0 48 65.3182*
    410 0 76 65.3182
    455 0 72 65.3182
    465 0 47 65.3182*
    480 0 54.5 65.3182
    483 0 83 65.3182*
    505 0 61 65.3182
    521 0 77 65.3182
    540 1 65 66.5
    560 1 77 66.5
    570 1 63 66.5
    585 1 49 66.5*
    598 1 63 66.5
    635 1 53 66.5
    673 1 63 66.5
    675 1 80 66.5
    721 1 95 66.5*
    735 1 70 66.5
    742 1 73 66.5
    763 1 47 66.5*

    So the regr predicts age at death before and after the event are
    very very similar 65.3 years and 66.5 years.

    Turns out the different is not statistically significant:

    y = 1.18182*x + 65.3182
    beta in 1.18182 +- 11.1011 90% CO
    T-test: P(beta>0) = 0.571796
    Rank-test: Spearman corr = 0.049407; critical value 2-sided at 5% = .351
    decision: accept H0:not_related

    I.e. the horrifc event had not noticable effect on life expectancy
    ergo the artical is all light and color and little fact.

    Makes for a good story though on the surface.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)