Antarctica very very cold: Surprise -- no surprise.
From
MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com@21:1/5 to
All on Sat Oct 2 23:46:02 2021
XPost: alt.global-warming
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- Newspapers are (again) full of stories about "anomalous" happenings
in Antarctica. Some place was record cold.
- The data from the 1950 shows annual min temps in Antarctica are
declining rapidly.
- But at the same time annual average min temps are increasing rapidly.
- Journalists and hillbillies yet again have been tricked by how
averages work.
- Not only is the Antarctic a continent at extreme latitudes, it is a
continent of high elevations. Extremes are amplified in all kinds of
ways and we should all be not surprised that outliers can be more
outlier-y as time goes by.
But even so average temps go right on rising in line with the rest
of the world, modulo polar amplification -- the tendency for polar
regions to warm about 2x faster than the global average
because AGW don't quit in winter or nighttime like the sun does.
Have been noticing a lot of these type of things:
South Pole posts most severe cold season on record, a surprise in a ...
The Washington Post, 01 Oct 2021 23:05Z
The average temperature at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station
between April and Sept, a frigid minus-78 degrees (minus-61
Celsius), was...
It seems hillbillies are not the only ones that don't understand what Antarctica is. Perhaps the mental model journalists are using is
"roughly like the US48". But no, it isn't.
Not only is the Antarctic at an extreme latitude, it is also a huge
continent. The further from the ocean, the more extreme the temperatures.
If that weren't enough, most of the continent is at extreme altitudes
-- 3000m to 4000m.
For each 1 km in elev we expect the ambient temperature to drop 5-10C.
This is why airlines need to have great a/c or passengers would
arrive as ice-blocks.
High altitudes are also a recipe for extreme swings in temperature.
So it is no surprise some stations in the Antarctic see big
negative numbers for their temperatures. And no big surprise year to
year extreme lows can become more and more extreme.
This might be further amplified by a record that only goes back to
the 1950s and not 1650s like some parts of the wider world.
But extreme lows are just that -- extremes. Outliers. They are not
"average" or "typical".
The average temperature of the continent is increasing, and
increasing faster than the world average.
If we look at the GHCN met stations for lats 60-90S and just do a
"no fiddlin widda nummers" hillbilly type average of the daily minimum temperatures (TMIN) year by year and find:
Year Avg Antarctic TMIN deg C
(58 locations from GHCN v3)
1954 -16.4502
1955 -13.6227
1956 -22.3949
1957 -23.5781
1958 -22.8924
1959 -21.7169
1960 -21.9339
1961 -20.664
1962 -21.2948
1963 -21.0083
1964 -22.2238
1965 -22.7139
1966 -26.6514
1967 -26.8548
1968 -28.0013
1969 -20.9729
1970 -18.9807
1971 -17.0016
1972 -17.362
1973 -17.6208
1974 -17.3071
1975 -18.8002
1976 -17.7157
1977 -16.9576
1978 -17.4246
1979 -19.475
1980 -18.5425
1981 -15.6921
1982 -18.8992
1983 -17.2787
1984 -16.9378
1985 -15.7835
1986 -14.6476
1987 -14.5996
1988 -13.6112
1989 -13.4817
1990 -14.7149
1991 -14.8549
1992 -15.4195
1993 -15.059
1994 -11.8136
1995 -15.0389
1996 -11.1248
1997 -12.738
1998 -12.7646
1999 -13.0097
2000 -12.8669
2001 -12.9656
2002 -12.4601
2003 -11.4131
2004 -12.7545
2005 -13.7894
2006 -12.9591
2007 -14.5071
2008 -14.161
2009 -14.655
2010 -14.4311
2011 -14.4339
2012 -13.4915
2013 -12.7282
2014 -13.2168
2015 -14.0971
2016 -13.6024
2017 -12.1884
No surprise there is a warming trend. This hillbilly avg has a warming
trend of 15 degrees per century. Which is what happens when you use
hillbilly methods. Most scientists would say the warming rate is around
1.8C per century, maybe increasing a bit as time goes by.
(See Berkeley Earth for all the gory details).
But at the same time we can look at the loest of all temps for each year
and SURPRISE:
year min TMIN
1954 -30
1955 -30
1956 -61.1
1957 -74.4
1958 -74.4
1959 -78.9
1960 -77.2
1961 -74.4
1962 -75.6
1963 -78.9
1964 -72.8
1965 -80.6
1966 -85
1967 -84.4
1968 -86.1
1969 -77.8
1970 -75.6
1971 -75.6
1972 -73.3
1973 -73.9
1974 -77.2
1975 -75
1976 -76.1
1977 -75
1978 -77.8
1979 -76.1
1980 -74.4
1981 -76.7
1982 -82.8
1983 -75.6
1984 -75.6
1985 -75
1986 -79.4
1987 -72.8
1988 -72.8
1989 -72.8
1990 -82.6
1991 -82.9
1992 -74.5
1993 -84.2
1994 -64.4
1995 -80.6
1996 -73
1997 -84.6
1998 -85.6
1999 -81.9
2000 -81.7
2001 -78.1
2002 -80.3
2003 -54.4
2004 -82.1
2005 -85.4
2006 -79.3
2007 -81.3
2008 -84.1
2009 -80.1
2010 -81.8
2011 -78.7
2012 -84.2
2013 -79.1
2014 -80.8
2015 -81.1
2016 -81.6
2017 -78.2
There's a strong cooling of about 11 deg per cent.
The average daily min is warming at an horrific rate yet the lowest TMIN
each year is decreasing at an horrific rate.
No surprise, atall atall.
It's a place where horrific things happen alla time.
--
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