• Good news! AGW seems to be reducing number of big quakes (and making mo

    From MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 3 15:31:54 2021
    XPost: alt.global-warming

    Can climate change influence earthquake activity?
    Yahoo, 02 Sep 2021 14:28Z
    Changes in the landscape are putting an increased stress load on the
    Earth's crust, which scientists say has been correlated ...

    It's pretty well understood that in areas with (these days) melting
    glaciers when the weight of the ice comes off the earth "rebounds" and
    that can cause earthquakes.

    But an interesting thing the AI's have picked up on is that major
    quakes are actually decreasing in direct relationship with increasing
    AGW. Potentially more startling, the programs find the best
    explanation of the reduction in cat 5+ quakes from GFZ-Potsdam is the
    notorious GHG "laughing gas" or N2O.

    Even more interesting the AI's also pick up on a causal chain where
    the complex growing season(s) for polar plankton -- which exhale N2O
    as part of their normal metabolism -- are leading to part of the rise
    in atm N2O. I.e. plankton are reducing earthquakes.

    This is the kind of claim you have to get used to seeing from AI s/w.
    Like human savants they make connections that seem bizarre yet can
    back them up with facts and figures and logical reason using
    well-known and accepted arguments.

    Of course they also pick up on something that seems to be part of the
    changing pattern of plankton growth that may appear "more
    controversial". I'll leave that for later but include something below
    that may attract the eye of the observant reader. :)

    Finally, atm N2O is also being greatly increased by human activities
    like agriculture. The s/w has picked up on a very strong link between
    the usage of nitrogen fertilizer in particularly the US and atm N2O
    and therefore the reduction in big quakes. I.e. US farming is reducing earthquakes.

    A brief outline of the evidence.

    The data is the date of each mag 5+ quake known since around 2005.
    The database is kept ay <http://geofon.gfz-potsdam.de>.

    The AI s/w then takes the monthly counts of mag 5+ quakes and tries to
    find among its list of 10s of 1000s of other data including but not
    limited to most things NOAA, NASA and Hadley curate, to try and find
    "the best explanation" of the quake numbers.

    The s/w uses hyper-robust statistical procedures. It uses a kind of
    careful time-series regression with lots of bells and whistles to
    establish a list of datasets that "look like" the quake time series
    and are at most 1% possibly related to just luck. It then sorts the
    various results in decreasing order of "explanation power" (R2
    statistic) and uses some simple qualitative reasoning to remove links
    that can not "possibly" be causal.

    The remaining list is then the AI's assessment of what is "causing"
    the reduction in quakes seen in the dataset.

    The top 10 "best explanations" are:

    Suspect variable Lag Log R2
    gavn2o_NH 0 -y 0.52525751
    gavn2o_SH 3 -y 0.51102974
    gavnitfertlbperac 12 -y 0.41804492
    co2 3 -y 0.40053350
    gavsaturn-lonecl 4 -y 0.40051239
    gavsaturn-v 4 -y 0.40045327
    gavch4 6 -y 0.39817247
    gavuranus-v 4 -y 0.39035179
    gavsaturn-r 4 0.38990237
    [timeseries] 0 -y 0.37348132

    The first column is the AI coded name for the dataset being used to
    explain the waxing and waning seen in the "target" dataset (the quake timeseries). The "lag" column shows most suspect variables had to
    allow some number of months delay to pass for whatever effect to
    achieve the best match between suspect and target. E.g. "3" would mean
    some suspect variable was found to need a 3 month delay before it best
    matched the target.

    The "Log" column says whether a log transform was needed to maximize
    the explanation power. It turns out all but 1 of the top 10 needed a
    log transform. This means the the suspect is related to the target
    by an exponential formula. Always interesting because of its
    potential hyper-rapid growth (the exponential function grows faster
    than any polynomial -- something politicians and even govt experts
    are allays falling foul of these days).

    Finally, the R2 columns shows how much of the month-to-month variation
    in quake numbers matches up "is explained by" month to month
    variations in the suspect variable. Bigger is better.

    We see the "best explanation" out of the ones the AI tried, out of
    20,000 it could have tried if it didn't use its knowledge base to rule a
    lot of them out for one or other reason, is "atmospheric N2O in the N
    Hem". The "gav" on the code means the effect of N2O on quake is not
    direct, but requires the N2O to "build up" to have its effect. The
    "gav" function is something the AI tinkered up on its own to match up
    rainfall and soil moisture; soil moisture relates to what moisture may
    have been left over from last month plus the rainfall for this
    month. It seems N2O (and many other things) are similar in regard to quakes.

    The s/w finds NH N2O "explains" about 1/2 the month to month variation
    in big quakes. The other 1/2 is presumably down to other quakey
    things, whatever they are.

    Another item from the top10 is "nitrogen fertilizer lbs per acre" -- a
    data series naffled from the USDA. Nitrogen fertiliser also increases
    atm N2O as it decomposes, but it seems something in particular
    associated with its usage is boosting the explanation power of
    fertiliser up to a level almost equal to the atm N2O itself. Not the
    12m lag time the AI found. This is presumably something like the
    average time fertilizer takes to decay and produce N2O.

    Interestingly we see CO2 and CH4 -- the 2 other better-known GHG's
    driving AGW -- also appear in the top 10 explanations for big quake frequencies.

    So it does indeed seem AGW is having an effect on earthquakes. At
    least with the data used here -- cat 5+ quakes -- the numbers are
    declining slowly month by month.

    If other researchers have noticed that quakes are overall increasing
    due to AGW it simply means that small quakes are REALLY increasing a
    lot. As the land dries, or gets wetter, and/or rebounds from ice-melt
    a lot of small quakes may happen as a result. The traditional
    geophysics idea is that many small quakes can "relieve" the stress
    that might otherwise have kept on building for a BIG quake.

    Upcoming events:
    8 Oct NOAA Billion-Dollar Disasters Q3 update

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