• the waste export bidness

    From MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com@21:1/5 to All on Sun Aug 15 19:39:44 2021
    I have a little AI program that can answer 2 types of questions:
    (a) which kinds of things result in X
    and (b) what are the effects of X

    It has a little built-in qualitative reasoning, some statistical
    packages, and the ability to download databases off the net.

    So I can ask it -- for those countries that important waste from the
    developed world, what are the effects of those imports.

    It found some quantitative data that was protected against upload (for
    some reason some people keep tack of waste tonnage imported by various countries, but then doesn't like to let anyone else find out what
    those numbers are). But it also found a qualitative dataset.

    Country Rank in waste imports bidness
    bangladesh 9
    china 5
    ghana 1
    guinea 13
    guinea-bissau 17
    haiti 14
    india 6
    indonesia 11
    ivory_coast 10
    kenya 12
    lebanon 18
    mexico 15
    nigeria 3
    pakistan 8
    philippines 2
    somalia 4
    south 19
    sweden 20
    vietnam 7
    zimbabwe 16

    Fortunately, this is the kind of data its reasoning subroutines were
    designed for. :)

    Interesting, too, that Sweden appears No 20 on the list. Sweden itself generates so little waste it has to import garbage from other
    countries to burn in its garbage-fired electricity generator network.

    So we can take this list and ask Mr AI -- what are the effects of
    importing more waste?

    This is its coded output:

    Effect R2 Beta stderr(Beta)
    jntsv3 0.75952576 0.596365 0.205042
    pubsrv3 0.72034981 0.960609 0.365721
    pubsv 0.71756747 0.782357 0.299915
    services 0.65874095 1.60003 0.703688
    popden 0.65616233 -10.9573 5.21477
    yag 0.65443842 -0.0401269 0.0191701
    pubcon 0.62395690 1.03402 0.490497
    comin4 0.61757346 1.1873 0.570897
    comin3 0.61309658 2.48082 1.2042
    ppubco 0.61308916 1.24042 0.602116
    pprico 0.61308890 -1.24042 0.602116
    max-ind-tax 0.57101594 -0.933333 0.438042
    yprisrv 0.39497001 0.0416132 0.033861
    yhhinc 0.35940589 3.43178e-05 3.28081e-05
    ywphh 0.34794705 -1.12386 1.01148
    ypimpcp 0.34167942 0.0025586 0.00254316
    netexp 0.33300236 0.36895 0.343296
    yzlit 0.32498972 0.0155146 0.0147002
    ygdpwnw 0.29207130 3.72298e-05 4.15054e-05
    yzlifewom 0.28541485 0.0348371 0.0362404
    yzpop 0.27980459 -0.000774238 0.000816647
    ydth65 0.26315863 -0.00180884 0.00198994
    gdpperca 0.26070686 0.082918 0.0800293
    covidcasesfeb2021 0.25970882 6.29817 4.81305
    yzlifemen 0.25861037 0.0410799 0.045729
    coviddeathsfeb2021 0.25491355 0.124608 0.100283
    prisrv3 0.24826431 0.639419 0.679874
    prod 0.23190030 1.99594 2.38818
    prisv 0.22989798 0.707249 0.790946
    ypubdt3 0.20268407 0.030949 0.035182
    yimpcap 0.18990743 0.000157035 0.000198181
    ytrdcap 0.18976745 7.60843e-05 9.60631e-05
    yexpcap 0.18959945 0.000147566 0.000186417
    ypubdebt 0.17659647 0.041256 0.0482376
    yjntdt3 0.14194186 0.0351416 0.0495214

    The "R2" column tells you how much of the effect waste imports seem to
    affect. So for the first line in the table (that is the% of GDP
    that services shared between the public and private sector) about 75%
    of the country-to-country variation in joint services are "predicted"
    by similar country-to-country variation in waste imports (as indicated
    by the rank -- where smaller numbers == higher levels of waste imports
    and higher numbers == lower levels of waste imports).

    The Beta column describes how much of the effect is affected by
    changes in waste imports (rank). For joint services each increase in
    rank (i.e. reduction in waste imports) results in about 0.6% more GDP
    spent in public/private services.

    The following lines describe other statistics to do with services in
    the economies concerned. In all cases more waste imports result in
    lower levels of services.

    "popden" shows more waste predicts lower population density. More
    waste imports seem to predict the relevant country is very crowded.

    "netexp" shows those countries with more waste imports are the ones
    that have the lowest net exports as pct GDP. Essentially
    waste-importing countries are not making any money in the
    international trade scene. The more they import, the less they
    make. No wonder they have no govt services.

    More waste imports also predicts lower literacy, lower female life
    expectancy, lower male life expectancy, lower productivity, lower GDP
    per capita, and higher death rates for people over 65.

    Big waste importers have lower levels of international debt. Most
    likely because no-one will lend them any money for development.

    On the plus side waste importing countries have almost zero tourism
    which means they have the lowest levels of COVID.

    For the male lifex each rank in waste importing has 1/4 of a year
    longer life. Since there are 20 ranks ("top20") this means the biggest
    waste importers have 5 years less life for men than e.g. Sweden (at
    rank 20). 5 years of lifex may not sound much but it's the difference
    between being a "first world" country and a "pest hole".

    The AI ensures all of these relationships are statistically
    significant in at least 2 tests at 90% confidence. IOW there is about
    1 chance in 10,000 these links found are just chance patterns in the
    data. The links are "real".

    Visit my kaggle page at <kaggle.com/kymhorsell1>. The "189" means I
    was once ranked 189th (based on work submitted and graded by computers :)
    in the approx 2,000,000 statisticians and scientists registered there
    at the time.

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