From MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jul 5 14:48:09 2021
- We use the African Elephant Database reports of estimated animals
since ~1998 to predict the future of elephant over the next 20-100y.
- Adjusting for "effort" that went into gathering the reported numbers
we find African elephant apparently peaked around 2006 and have been
in slow decline since.
- Using an AI s/w with access to 10s of 1000s of datasets we find the
sea surface temperature in a region that includes W Greenland and
the Antarctic Peninsula predicts more than 80% of the year-to-year
variation in African elephant numbers.
- Unfortunately the temperature of the region is on the increase
around 1.4C/cent, indicating elephant numbers are predicted to 1/2
before that century is up.
- Because of animal characteristics -- social grouping and intelligence --
it's expected real numbers over the next 100y are likely to involve a
crash at some point with small groups of smaller animals perhaps
surviving in tiny pockets across the continent.
Despite a huge and continent wide effort to boost the survival of
African elephant, the species seems to be on a track to decline.
According to periodic reports from the AED numbers of animals peaked
in 2006 and have declined since. Numbers are estimated for each region
of their range across central Africa and the results combined for the
survey reports. Ground observations of animals, aircraft surveys,
counts of dung heaps and the opinion of local farmers and other
experts are all combined to obtain a total number of animals.
And we can use some data science techniques to massage that and see if
we can make a reasonably robust prediction about where the numbers are
The various reports give the total estimates since the 90s as:
Year Estimated numbers
2006 471836 <-- max
Like field estimates of other endangered animals there are many
niggling little problems in gathering this kind of data. E.g. the
majority of the "number" above comes from aircraft surveys of
herds. And it's a truism the harder you look the more you find. So we
have to adjust the estimates by the "amount of effort" that went in to assembling them. Various data are available to estimate "effort" --
e.g. amount of project funding (adjusted for inflation, of course),
manpower available, number of miles flown for aircraft surveys
(e.g. length of transect/transects) -- and we can combine all that
using high-fallutin methods to come up with:
Year Adjusted elephant numbers
2006 521189 <-- max
And from these numbers we can interpolate missing years to obtain an
estimate for all the years from approx 1990 to 2020. Which we can
then throw into a little program to discover what out there in the
world seems to be influencing elephant numbers in Africa.
And the top10 answers we find after search 10s of 1000s of data
"Suspect" dataset Lag(y) LogTrans R2
world-70 2 y 0.83462826
sduah_globe6SoPol 3 y 0.81257976
arc-40 5 y 0.78078380
sdcambodia 2 0.77924226
ant70 4 y 0.73949191
ant80 4 y 0.73390412
sdireland 3 y 0.72508670
presband20 3 y 0.72354974
world150 0 0.70189185
maxuah_lsNH 4 0.69806836
So the "best" simple predictor of African elephant numbers we can find
is the SST of oceans along the longitude segment 70W-60W that goes
through the waters off W Greenland and the Antarctic peninsula -- key
weather determiners for most of the globe.
The annual avg SST of this region lagged by 2 years matches 83% of the
elephant count data so we expect it will be able to predict at least
numbers a decade or 2 into the future given it is based on reports for
the last 20+ years.
But the results are not happy. The SST along the segment are on the
Model for world-70 1990-2020:
(Serial corr detected; estimated rho = 0.449530)
y = 0.0141806*x + -12.6978
beta in 0.0141806 +- 0.00665622 90% CI
alpha in -12.6978 +- 7.35401
P(beta>0.000000) = 0.999430
r2 = 0.31930471
I.e. SST in the region are presently increasing around 1.4 degC/cent --
similar to the rise of avg global temps.
And the relationship with African elephant numbers over the past 20y
is inversely related to temperature -- the higher the SST the lower
the elephant count. The rise in elephant numbers between 1998 and 2006
is matched by a decline in SST in the region during those years --
presumably due to factors like melting glacier ice entering the seas
off W Greenland and the Antarctic peninsula. After ~2006 overall ocean
warming took over and SST started to climb again, in parallel with the
reported decline in elephant numbers.
The best model linking "world-70" and AED reported numbers is:
(Log transform enabled).
y = 7.93112e+09*exp(-0.619429*x)
Halving Rate 1.12C
beta in -0.619429 +- 0.124802 90% CI
alpha in 22.7941 +- 1.9685 = [20.8256, 24.7626]
P(beta<0.000000) = 1.000000
calculated Spearman corr = -0.850490
Critical Spearman = 0.582500 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:no_link
r2 = 0.83462826
The model shows the data fit the (adjusted) report numbers well.
There are no 2s outliers and the 1s outliers fall on both sides of the
The stats finds the model is significant at 90% (T-test) and 99% (rank
test) meaning there is almost 999 chances in 1000 the SST data
"explains" or predicts what is happening to African elephant numbers.
The model estimates as SST in the region that incl W Greenland and the
Ant Pen increases by 1.2C elephant numbers in African are expected to
halve. From the SST model we see temps will rise around 1.4C over the
next 100y or 1.2C over the next 90y.
Unfortunately because elephant are social animals, when numbers reach
some critical point they will no longer be able to sustain their
numbers and the population will crash. The future looks bleak for the
big herds, but desert elephant show isolated small groups of 1/2-size
animals may be able to eek out a living for 100s of years yet,
Canada's `heat dome' evacuees: Inside the makeshift shelters housing the
latest victims of the climate crisis
Yahoo, 04 Jul 2021 06:31Z
An estimated 1,000 Lytton residents in British Columbia are estimated to
have fled their homes due to the fires caused by ...
Climate changge forces 1000s of Bangladeshis into poverty-stricken slum
YAHOO!News, 03 Jul 2021 18:33Z
Sky News reports from the Kallyanpur slum in Dhaka, Bangladesh, as
climate change is forcing 1000s of people to migrate ...
Suez Canal to get tugboat in deal to free Ever Given
ABC News, 4 JulJuly at 11:36pm
The Suez Canal authority agrees to release the Ever Given container ship
that blocked the canal for 6 days after settling a dispute with the owner
WA's South West and Great Southern bracing for severe storm after Perth cops drenching
ABC News, 05 Jul 2021 02:46Z
A thunderstorm warning is issued for parts of Western Australia's South West and Great Southern regions as a cold front reaches the state's south coast today, after Perth receives 44 millimetres of rain in 24 hours.
[Fer some reason most of the hurrycanes come from the south deze days!]
[Scammed On The Forth of July!]
Massive ransomware attack seen paralyzing victims in 17 countries BusinessMirror, 04 Jul 2021 19:21Z
Just weeks after President Joe Biden implored Vladimir Putin to curb cyber crime, a notorious, Russia-linked ransomware gang has been accused of
pulling off an audacious attack on the global software ...
Experts say Russian group behind massive ransomware attack on global
The Times of Israel, 04 Jul 2021 09:47Z
[Some reports say the attack is shaping up as the new record-holder
for number of businesses affected].
Kaseya ransomware attack could be record-setting as its scope widens
Global News, 04 Jul 2021 01:19Z
Some cybersecurity researchers predict the attack targeting customers of
software supplier Kaseya could be one of the ...
Remains of collapsed Miami building demolished as threat of Hurricane Elsa looms
ABC News, 05 Jul 2021 03:21Z
A controlled explosion brings down the unstable remains of the collapsed apartment block in Florida ahead of a threatening tropical storm.
Israel has more Pfizer vaccine than it can use and is scrambling to arrange
ABC News, 05 Jul 2021 03:23Z
As Australia tries to vaccinate its citizens while managing a constricted supply of the Pfizer vaccine, Israel is facing the opposite problem. It is racing to give the vaccine away.
At the start of the pandemic, kids made up 2% of new COVID infections. Now, they make up 24%. What happened?
USA TODAY, 04 Jul 2021 17:50Z
Tyson recalls 8.5 mn pounds of chicken products due to possible
STLtoday.com, 04 Jul 2021 13:48Z
China's new front in the trade war with Australia -- Africa
ABC News, 04 Jul 2021 18:57Z
As tensions between Canberra and Beijing continue to escalate, China's
battle for resource security will intensify. If the recent machinations in
the Congo are any indication, so too will its determination to shut out Australia and its interests wherever it can, writes Ian Verrender.
'It really stresses me out': NSW Premier reveals key worry ahead of decision
ABC News, 04 Jul 2021 19:09Z
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian says there are "pleasing" signs the lockdown
is working, but compliance with public health orders in the coming days will
be critical in the decision on whether to lift stay-at-home orders.
'Most destructive' fires kill 4 in Cyprus with fears they could intensify
ABC News, 04 Jul 2021 19:11Z
Officials believe the bodies belong to 4 Egyptian labourers, as Cyprus
calls for assistance from Israel and EU countries to help control the blaze.
Military exercise in the Black Sea 2021 attracted the attention of UFO Newsflare, 04 Jul 2021 17:33Z
On the day of the beginning of the military exercises, which are taking
place near the city of Odessa, next to which I live, I noticed something in
the sky. The object caught my attention because it ...
Solar flare hits Earth and disrupts tech - NASA confirms the strongest flare
in 4 years
Daily Express, 04 Jul 2021 17:33Z
A STREAM of radiation from the biggest solar flare seen in years was responsible for a tech blackout this weekend, ...
Democratic Rep. André Carson Calls for Congressional Hearings on UFO Sightings Newsweek, 04 Jul 2021 18:35Z
"We still can't rule out that 2-to-6% we can't explain, maybe even otherworldly," the Indiana congressman said of the ...
Three killed as tropical storm Elsa makes its way to Florida
ABC News, 04 Jul 2021 08:15Z
Three people have been confirmed dead due to tropical storm Elsa, which is tearing across the Caribbean, leaving devastation in its wake.