• May 2021: GL +1.07C rel pre-indust temps; next El Nino predicted +1.5C:

    From MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com@21:1/5 to All on Tue Jun 15 01:34:41 2021
    XPost: alt.global-warming

    May 2021 Global Temperature Update

    James Hansen and Makiko Sato
    14 June 2021

    Fig. 1. Monthly global temperature anomalies relative to 1880-1920 average.

    Global temperature in May was +1.07C (relative to the 1880-1920 base
    period, which is a best estimate of preindustrial temperature). The temperature was well below a year earlier (Fig. 1), as expected due to
    the La Nina that peaked in Nov 2020. Global temperature
    anomalies are correlated with ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation),
    with global temperature lagging the Nino 3.4 index by 5 months on
    average (Fig. 1 in our April 2021 Temperature Update).

    The 12-month running-mean global temperature (blue line in Fig. 2) at
    +1.13C is now near the 1970-2015 trend line. This 12-month mean
    should continue to fall during the next 6 months, reaching a minimum
    in Nov, as discussed in the April 2021 Temperature update.

    Fig. 2. Global surface temperature relative to 1880-1920 average.

    ig. 3. May 2021 surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1951-1980 base period.

    On the longer run, global temperature will increase in response to the
    present large planetary energy imbalance (absorbed solar energy
    exceeds thermal emission to space by about +1 W/m2)[1] and the
    continuing growth of human-made greenhouse gases. In addition, solar irradiance reached the minimum of the present solar cycle during 2019,
    so for about the next 6 years solar irradiance will add a small
    positive (warming) forcing (global temperature response to solar cycle
    forcing lags the solar cycle by 1-2 years due to the climate system's
    thermal inertia).

    Global temperature should reach about +1.5C in conjunction with the
    next El Nino.

    Local monthly temperature anomalies routinely exceed global mean
    warming. Much of North America, Western Europe, India and Eastern
    Antarctica experienced negative temperature anomalies in May relative
    to the 1951-1980 average (Fig. 3). The largest positive anomalies
    were in Central Asia, the Arctic and Western Antarctica.

    [1] von Schuckmann, K., et al.: Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?, Earth System Science Data 12, 2013-2041, 2020.

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