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https://calmatters.org/environment/climate-change/2024/03/california- climate-change-mandate-analysis/

California will fail to meet its ambitious mandates for combating climate change unless the state almost triples its rate of reducing greenhouse
gases through 2030, according to a new analysis released today.

After dropping during the pandemic, California’s emissions of carbon
dioxide, methane and other climate-warming gases increased 3.4% in 2021,
when the economy rebounded. The increase puts California further away from reaching its target mandated under state law: emitting 40% less in 2030
than in 1990 — a feat that will become more expensive and more difficult
as time passes, the report’s authors told CalMatters.

“The fact that they need to increase the speed of reduction at about three times faster than they’re actually doing — that does not bode well,” said Stafford Nichols, a researcher at Beacon Economics, a Los Angeles-based economics research firm, and a co-author of the annual California Green Innovation Index released today.

“As we get closer to that 2030 goal, the fact that we’re further off just
means that we have to decrease faster each year.”

The state is even further away from meeting a more aggressive goal set by
the Air Resources Board in the state’s new climate blueprint. Under that
plan, greenhouse gases must be cut 48% below 1990 levels by 2030. Gov.
Gavin Newsom had urged the board to adopt the more difficult goal, calling
the new scoping plan the “most ambitious set of climate goals of any jurisdiction in the world.”

David Clegern, an air board spokesman, said in an emailed statement to CalMatters that state officials are confident that California will hit its targets, including its goal of carbon neutrality by 2045.

Clegern said the state is in the midst of updating its climate programs
and strengthening regulations, which, he said, “takes time” because they
have to “translate into projects and action in the real world.”

“It is more important than ever to transition existing facilities, and
build clean energy infrastructure,” Clegern said. “This decade is critical
for implementation of the state’s plans and policies. ” He added, “as we
have stated for more than 10 years, California’s climate plans will
continue to adjust to what remains a developing threat.”

Greenhouse gases are spewed by an array of sources, mostly from vehicles, industries and power plants that burn fossil fuels, but also from
livestock, landfills and other sources.

The report, compiled by Beacon Economics and environmental nonprofit Next
10, analyzed state data and concluded that through 2030, California would
have to cut all greenhouse gases by 4.4% every year, beginning back in
2022. (Only preliminary data is available for 2022.)

To put that challenge in perspective, the state has only achieved annual
cuts of more than 4% twice over the last two decades, both during major recessions, in 2009 and 2020, according to Stephanie Leonard, director of research for Next 10. And from 2016 through 2021, the annual average
reduction has been just 1.6%, according to the report.

“We need each program to perform as well as or better than identified in
the scoping plan in order to achieve our goals.”

LIANE RANDOLPH, CHAIR OF THE CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD
Massive amounts of emissions — more than 100 million metric tons a year —
will have to be eliminated for California to meet the mandate. The state couldn’t spew more than about 258 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in 2030, compared to 2021’s 381 million, according to
the report.

Liane Randolph, chair of the California Air Resources Board, told the
state Legislature’s joint committee on climate change policies on Monday
that there is little room for error in the years ahead.

“The challenge is that we need all of our programs to be effective and
reduce emissions as laid out in the scoping plan,” Randolph said. “We need
each program to perform as well as or better than identified in the
scoping plan in order to achieve our goals.”

Power plants and cement are major emitters
California already has made substantial progress cleaning up cars and
trucks. It has the world’s strictest emissions controls on vehicles,
including a regulation that phases out new sales of gasoline-powered cars
by 2035. Last year, electric vehicle sales were up 29%, though they slowed
at year’s end.

But electricity generation was responsible for some of the biggest
increases in emissions between 2020 and 2021, a 6.7% increase for imported electric power and 3.9% for in-state power, the report found.

That’s because California’s drought resulted in less hydroelectric power
and more reliance on natural gas to avoid power shortages, according to Leonard. In 2020, the state faced its first non-wildfire rolling blackouts
in nearly two decades after record-breaking heat. Last year, the state
extended operations at three natural gas plants along the Southern
California coast to shore up California’s straining power grid.

Natural gas plants are the largest source of greenhouse gases among California’s in-state producers of electricity. California has a law
mandating zero-carbon, all-renewable electricity by 2045 but it has a long
way to go: About 42% of power generated in the state came from natural gas
in 2022.

“It will take more action, time and resources to further decarbonize the economy, but the last couple decades offer hope.”

2024 CALIFORNIA GREEN INNOVATION INDEX
The report also highlighted cement facilities, saying California has some
of the planet’s most polluting cement plants. As more housing is built and
more cement is produced, the authors recommended “urgent action” to cut
those emissions.

California’s seven cement plants emit about 7.5 million metric tons of greenhouse gases per year, according to the air board, which has a working group aimed at decarbonizing the industry. Some factories are turning to low-carbon fuels, including the burning of tires.

Carbon capture and storage technology also may be used at cement plants
because they are so difficult to decarbonize. These facilities capture emissions from industrial plants, then inject them underground.

“California’s cement plants are an example of the challenge. Our cement is
more carbon-intensive because we have older plants,” said Clegern of the
air board.

??Wildfires were another large emitter of carbon dioxide, methane and
other greenhouse gases in 2021.

“Too often the fact of California’s historical accomplishments is cited as evidence that state policy is on track, when often the pace of change
going forward falls well short.”

DANNY CULLENWARD, INDEPENDENT EMISSIONS MARKET ADVISORY COMMITTEE
On an optimistic note, the report acknowledged that California has some of
the lowest per-capita emissions in the U.S., and is the third-most carbon- efficient state, following New York and Massachusetts. However, many of
the easiest and least costly steps have already been implemented. So
finding room for future reductions will be more challenging in coming
years.

“The state has shown that it is possible to grow the economy, while
lowering emissions,” the California Green Innovation Index says. “It will
take more action, time and resources to further decarbonize the economy,
but the last couple decades offer hope.”

The new analysis is the most recent example of an outside entity warning
that California’s climate goals face major hurdles. The state’s
Legislative Analyst’s Office said last year that California lacked a
“clear strategy” for meeting its 2030 targets.

Also, last month, the state’s advisory committee for its controversial cap
and trade market noted that the state was not on track to meet 2030
targets. Cap and trade is the state’s market that allows companies to buy
and trade credits for reducing greenhouse gases.

“Too often the fact of California’s historical accomplishments is cited as evidence that state policy is on track, when often the pace of change
going forward falls well short of what is required to meet the state’s
next climate targets,” Danny Cullenward, an economist and vice chair of
the Independent Emissions Market Advisory Committee told CalMatters.

“Unfortunately,” he said, “the state is not on track for its 2030 climate target.”


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Durham Report: The FBI has an integrity problem. It has none.

No collusion - Special Counsel Robert Swan Mueller III, March 2019.
Officially made Nancy Pelosi a two-time impeachment loser.

Thank you for cleaning up the disaster of the 2008-2017 Obama / Biden
fiasco, President Trump.

Under Barack Obama's leadership, the United States of America became the
The World According To Garp. Obama sold out heterosexuals for Hollywood
queer liberal democrat donors.

President Trump boosted the economy, reduced illegal invasions, appointed dozens of judges and three SCOTUS justices.

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