You can take this to the bank, it's the best estimate, and a conservative one at that.
'The proximate cause of ongoing global warming is Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI). Earth is
now absorbing more energy incoming from the Sun than the planet is sending back to space
as reflected solar light and emitted thermal (heat) radiation. As long as that imbalance is
positive – more energy coming in than going out – Earth will continue to get hotter. Factors
that alter Earth’s energy balance are called climate forcings. There are two large human-made
climate forcings: changes of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) and changes of aerosols.
GHGs reduce heat radiation to space; thus, an increase of GHGs causes a positive energy
imbalance, more energy coming in than going out, which causes warming. Aerosols reflect
sunlight to space, which is a negative contribution to EEI that causes cooling.'
The GHG forcing is cumulative, which means a total cessation of emissions is not enough. CO2 must be actively removed from the atmosphere, and even that must be done with some degree of precision since habitability depends on the concentration remaining
in a relatively small window..
https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/Acceleration.2023.11.10.pdf
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)