• New study definitively confirms gulf stream weakening

    From Fred Bloggs@21:1/5 to All on Wed Sep 27 06:44:57 2023
    The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

    It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to Fred Bloggs on Wed Sep 27 07:47:35 2023
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:45:03 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

    It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.

    It is scarcely the only study that has come to this conclusion

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

    is another, which looked at rather data. I seem to recall earlier studies which said that it had slowed down by 30% since the 1950's

    Here's another

    https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/gulf-stream-amoc-circulation-collapse-freshwater-imbalance-usa-europe-fa/

    The worry is a rerun of the Younger Dryas, when it shut down completely for 1300+/-10 years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas

    The Argo buoy program, which collects data on deep ocean currents, should be telling us more

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)

    It had got some 3000 floats into the oceans in 2007 and seems to have been running steadily since then - one of my neighbours got to launch one recently. Nobody seems to be making much fuss about the results yet.,

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

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  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com on Wed Sep 27 08:03:48 2023
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

    The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

    It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.

    No amount of computing can correct 40 years of "observations of
    disparate quality and resolution".

    But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying.
    Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Fred Bloggs@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Wed Sep 27 09:04:18 2023
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:04:10 AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

    It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.
    No amount of computing can correct 40 years of "observations of
    disparate quality and resolution".

    Right, the data must be 'corrected.'


    But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying.
    Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

    That's only if you assume it's all linear. Article mentioned most of the 4% slowdown occurred within the last decade. That would suggest a positive feedback mechanism of some sort. It may be that once the slow down reaches threshold, the whole system
    switches wildly, heading for a new steady state. And that is not good.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Wed Sep 27 08:46:51 2023
    On Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 1:04:10 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

    It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.

    No amount of computing can correct 40 years of "observations of disparate quality and resolution".

    People have been measuring Gulf Stream speed by different methods and in different places for decades now.

    It does seem to be slowing down, but the results don't look all that consistent.

    The problem is that the Gulf Stream is what we see on the surface. The Argo project

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)

    aims to track the deep sea return currents as well. It's had some 3000-odd free-floating (and sinking) buoys deployed since 2007.

    We haven't heard a lot about the results yet. If you look at the whole of the flow you should eventually be able to get a reasonable idea of what is going on.

    But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying.
    Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

    That probably isn't a valid extrapolation. John Larkin probably does think that he is being sarcastic, but in reality he's just being his usual ill-informed self.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

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  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com on Wed Sep 27 11:09:00 2023
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 09:04:18 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:04:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

    It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.
    No amount of computing can correct 40 years of "observations of
    disparate quality and resolution".

    Right, the data must be 'corrected.'


    But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying.
    Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

    That's only if you assume it's all linear. Article mentioned most of the 4% slowdown occurred within the last decade. That would suggest a positive feedback mechanism of some sort. It may be that once the slow down reaches threshold, the whole system
    switches wildly, heading for a new steady state. And that is not good.

    To me, it suggests a noisy process and some sensor variation. But you
    can cherry-pick noise and extrapolate and be terrified if that's your
    full-time hobby.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Phil Hobbs@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Wed Sep 27 18:16:15 2023
    John Larkin <jl@997arbor.com> wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 09:04:18 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:04:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote: >>> On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has
    slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this
    weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

    It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and
    highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.
    No amount of computing can correct 40 years of "observations of
    disparate quality and resolution".

    Right, the data must be 'corrected.'


    But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying.
    Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

    That's only if you assume it's all linear. Article mentioned most of the
    4% slowdown occurred within the last decade. That would suggest a
    positive feedback mechanism of some sort. It may be that once the slow
    down reaches threshold, the whole system switches wildly, heading for a
    new steady state. And that is not good.

    To me, it suggests a noisy process and some sensor variation. But you
    can cherry-pick noise and extrapolate and be terrified if that's your full-time hobby.



    And of course the ‘new steady state’ is an ice age, which should comfort Fred and his AGW confrères no end. ;)

    Cheers

    Phil Hobbs

    --
    Dr Philip C D Hobbs Principal Consultant ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical. on Wed Sep 27 13:20:57 2023
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 18:16:15 -0000 (UTC), Phil Hobbs <pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

    John Larkin <jl@997arbor.com> wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 09:04:18 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:04:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote: >>>> On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has
    slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this >>>>> weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html >>>>>
    It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and >>>>> highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.
    No amount of computing can correct 40 years of "observations of
    disparate quality and resolution".

    Right, the data must be 'corrected.'


    But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying. >>>> Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

    That's only if you assume it's all linear. Article mentioned most of the >>> 4% slowdown occurred within the last decade. That would suggest a
    positive feedback mechanism of some sort. It may be that once the slow
    down reaches threshold, the whole system switches wildly, heading for a
    new steady state. And that is not good.

    To me, it suggests a noisy process and some sensor variation. But you
    can cherry-pick noise and extrapolate and be terrified if that's your
    full-time hobby.



    And of course the ‘new steady state’ is an ice age, which should comfort
    Fred and his AGW confrères no end. ;)

    Cheers

    Phil Hobbs

    It doesn't seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
    deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will
    be terrible.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From whit3rd@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Wed Sep 27 17:44:27 2023
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 1:21:19 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

    It doesn't seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
    deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will
    be terrible.

    Warming is already a big deal. Plants and pollinators need to evolve in order to survive in
    a different environment, and... all our food crops might go the way of the American
    Chestnut and go extinct for a century or two. Can we in our billions feed on wild rice and mealworms if we need to?

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Fred Bloggs@21:1/5 to Phil Hobbs on Wed Sep 27 18:12:18 2023
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 2:16:24 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
    John Larkin <j...@997arbor.com> wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 09:04:18 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:04:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote: >>> On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has
    slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this >>>> weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html >>>>
    It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and >>>> highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.
    No amount of computing can correct 40 years of "observations of
    disparate quality and resolution".

    Right, the data must be 'corrected.'


    But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying. >>> Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

    That's only if you assume it's all linear. Article mentioned most of the >> 4% slowdown occurred within the last decade. That would suggest a
    positive feedback mechanism of some sort. It may be that once the slow
    down reaches threshold, the whole system switches wildly, heading for a >> new steady state. And that is not good.

    To me, it suggests a noisy process and some sensor variation. But you
    can cherry-pick noise and extrapolate and be terrified if that's your full-time hobby.


    And of course the ‘new steady state’ is an ice age, which should comfort Fred and his AGW confrères no end. ;)

    It's no laughing matter. The whole of present day New York State was buried under 8,000 feet of ice! Europe was a disaster. I'm sure the rest of the world wasn't exactly balmy either. This was 24,000 years ago, mankind was around back then. Sea level was
    about 130 feet lower (IIRC). Where do you think all that water went?

    https://www.nysm.nysed.gov/sites/default/files/styles/1000px_wide/public/ice_coveredny-horiz2.jpg?itok=OrHFcE0N

    https://www.nysm.nysed.gov/exhibitions/online/ice-ages





    Cheers

    Phil Hobbs

    --
    Dr Philip C D Hobbs Principal Consultant ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to All on Wed Sep 27 19:11:22 2023
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 17:44:27 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
    wrote:

    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 1:21:19?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

    It doesn't seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
    deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will
    be terrible.

    Warming is already a big deal. Plants and pollinators need to evolve in order to survive in
    a different environment, and... all our food crops might go the way of the American
    Chestnut and go extinct for a century or two. Can we in our billions feed on >wild rice and mealworms if we need to?

    Food production is radically up in the last decades, and still sloping
    up hard.

    Therev would be plenty of food for everyone except for stupid
    politics.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Fred Bloggs@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Wed Sep 27 18:20:41 2023
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 4:21:19 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 18:16:15 -0000 (UTC), Phil Hobbs <pcdhSpamM...@electrooptical.net> wrote:

    John Larkin <j...@997arbor.com> wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 09:04:18 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:04:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has >>>>> slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this >>>>> weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html >>>>>
    It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and >>>>> highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.
    No amount of computing can correct 40 years of "observations of
    disparate quality and resolution".

    Right, the data must be 'corrected.'


    But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying. >>>> Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

    That's only if you assume it's all linear. Article mentioned most of the >>> 4% slowdown occurred within the last decade. That would suggest a
    positive feedback mechanism of some sort. It may be that once the slow >>> down reaches threshold, the whole system switches wildly, heading for a >>> new steady state. And that is not good.

    To me, it suggests a noisy process and some sensor variation. But you
    can cherry-pick noise and extrapolate and be terrified if that's your
    full-time hobby.



    And of course the ‘new steady state’ is an ice age, which should comfort
    Fred and his AGW confrères no end. ;)

    Cheers

    Phil Hobbs
    It doesn't seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
    deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will
    be terrible.

    Don't let those mean temp rises that sound small fool you. The mean value tells you nothing about the violent extremes of instantaneous weather that gets you there. The atmospheric physics does, and it does not look good.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Wed Sep 27 22:08:18 2023
    On Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 12:11:45 PM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 17:44:27 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com>
    wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 1:21:19?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

    It doesn't seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
    deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will
    be terrible.

    Warming is already a big deal. Plants and pollinators need to evolve in order to survive in
    a different environment, and... all our food crops might go the way of the American
    Chestnut and go extinct for a century or two. Can we in our billions feed on
    wild rice and mealworms if we need to?

    Food production is radically up in the last decades, and still sloping up hard.

    So is population. Malthis wasn't wrong.

    There would be plenty of food for everyone except for stupid politics.

    China doesn't share your optimism. Famines have been a effective form of population control for most of human history. and anthropogenic global warming may well reinstate them.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Wed Sep 27 22:03:22 2023
    On Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 6:21:19 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 18:16:15 -0000 (UTC), Phil Hobbs <pcdhSpamM...@electrooptical.net> wrote:

    John Larkin <j...@997arbor.com> wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 09:04:18 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:04:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has >>>>> slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this >>>>> weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html >>>>>
    It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and >>>>> highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.
    No amount of computing can correct 40 years of "observations of
    disparate quality and resolution".

    Right, the data must be 'corrected.'


    But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying. >>>> Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

    That's only if you assume it's all linear. Article mentioned most of the >>> 4% slowdown occurred within the last decade. That would suggest a
    positive feedback mechanism of some sort. It may be that once the slow >>> down reaches threshold, the whole system switches wildly, heading for a >>> new steady state. And that is not good.

    <snip>

    And of course the ‘new steady state’ is an ice age, which should comfort Fred and his AGW confrères no end. ;)

    It wasn't after the younger Dryas.

    It doesn't seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big deal. Earth might be better off, actually.

    That's what you think if you let climate change denial propaganda do your thinking for you.

    But the next ice age will be terrible.

    If we ever have one. We now know enough about the process of flipping from an interglacial to an ice age that we could stop it if it looked as if it was getting under way.
    We should leave enough deposits of fossil carbon in the ground to let us do it when next we need to - in perhaps 50,000 year.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

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  • From whit3rd@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Wed Sep 27 23:55:52 2023
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 7:11:45 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 17:44:27 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com>
    wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 1:21:19?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

    It doesn't seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
    deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will
    be terrible.

    Warming is already a big deal. Plants and pollinators need to evolve in order to survive in
    a different environment, and... all our food crops might go the way of the American
    Chestnut and go extinct for a century or two. Can we in our billions feed on
    wild rice and mealworms if we need to?
    Food production is radically up in the last decades, and still sloping
    up hard.

    Not cattle in Texas; net cattle population has dropped since about 1975.

    The 'food production' has to match population growth, or the market corrects. Raw production numbers reflect population, not technology or absolute
    capacity.

    Therev would be plenty of food for everyone except for stupid
    politics.

    That's stupid, and political. Agriculture is mainly nature, just tweaked a bit
    by technology. Texas can't support more cattle, so population rises and
    beef production doesn't. The market and/or technology fix, is... eat more beans.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From a a@21:1/5 to whit3rd@gmail.com on Thu Sep 28 11:28:33 2023
    XPost: free.spam

    The idiot whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> persisting in being an Off-topic troll...

    --
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  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to All on Thu Sep 28 12:19:31 2023
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 23:55:52 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
    wrote:

    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 7:11:45?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 17:44:27 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com>
    wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 1:21:19?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

    It doesn't seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
    deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will
    be terrible.

    Warming is already a big deal. Plants and pollinators need to evolve in order to survive in
    a different environment, and... all our food crops might go the way of the American
    Chestnut and go extinct for a century or two. Can we in our billions feed on
    wild rice and mealworms if we need to?
    Food production is radically up in the last decades, and still sloping
    up hard.

    Not cattle in Texas; net cattle population has dropped since about 1975.

    That's horrifying. We are all doomed to live on tofu.

    (As I type this, I'm finishing a superb burger from, of all places, a
    Portugese restaurant. Burger and excellent fries were just $12 at
    Happy Hour.)



    The 'food production' has to match population growth, or the market corrects. >Raw production numbers reflect population, not technology or absolute >capacity.

    Google for yield per acre for various crops over the last 100 years.
    It's amazing.

    Once 80% of the population farmed and often starved. Now it's a few
    per cent and there's lots of food.


    Therev would be plenty of food for everyone except for stupid
    politics.

    That's stupid, and political. Agriculture is mainly nature, just tweaked a bit
    by technology. Texas can't support more cattle, so population rises and >beef production doesn't. The market and/or technology fix, is... eat more beans.

    Wars and collectivism have historically been bad for food production.

    "just tweaked a bit by technology" is hilarious.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Fri Sep 29 00:06:47 2023
    On Friday, September 29, 2023 at 5:19:46 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 23:55:52 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com>
    wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 7:11:45?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 17:44:27 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com>
    wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 1:21:19?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >> >
    It doesn't seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
    deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will >> >> be terrible.

    Warming is already a big deal. Plants and pollinators need to evolve in order to survive in
    a different environment, and... all our food crops might go the way of the American
    Chestnut and go extinct for a century or two. Can we in our billions feed on
    wild rice and mealworms if we need to?
    Food production is radically up in the last decades, and still sloping
    up hard.

    Not cattle in Texas; net cattle population has dropped since about 1975.

    That's horrifying. We are all doomed to live on tofu.

    (As I type this, I'm finishing a superb burger from, of all places, a Portugese restaurant. Burger and excellent fries were just $12 at Happy Hour.)

    The 'food production' has to match population growth, or the market corrects.
    Raw production numbers reflect population, not technology or absolute capacity.

    Google for yield per acre for various crops over the last 100 years. It's amazing. \

    Google for fertiliser use per acre over the same period

    file:///C:/Users/Bill/Downloads/ag-fertilizer.pdf

    only goes back to 1960. John Larkin will probably be amazed. He doesn't seem to know much.

    Once 80% of the population farmed and often starved. Now it's a few per cent and there's lots of food.

    That stated with Turnip Townshend and the British agricultural revolution a few hunderd years ago

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Townshend,_2nd_Viscount_Townshend

    and has progressed through the mechanisation of agriculture. It has taken a lot of work.

    There would be plenty of food for everyone except for stupid politics.

    That's stupid, and political. Agriculture is mainly nature, just tweaked a bit by technology. Texas can't support more cattle, so population rises and beef production doesn't. The market and/or technology fix, is... eat more beans.

    Wars and collectivism have historically been bad for food production.

    Wars are always bad. Soviet collectivisation never worked well - authoritarian socialism does concentrate power into inexpert hands. The kibbutz system in Israel works rather better, if not all that perfectly.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kibbutz

    "just tweaked a bit by technology" is hilarious.

    Far from it. The Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organisation has a duty to transfer scientific advances into the agricultural sector, and had a problem getting through to farmers who are mostly pretty conservative. The answer turned out
    to be to concentrate on the occasional less conservative farmer. When they started making more money than their more conservative neighbours, the conservative neighbours were happy to copy what they did, getting the CSIRO advice at second hand.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From whit3rd@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Fri Sep 29 02:14:06 2023
    On Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 12:19:46 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 23:55:52 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com>
    wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 7:11:45?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 17:44:27 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com>
    wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 1:21:19?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >> >
    It doesn't seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
    deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will >> >> be terrible.

    Warming is already a big deal. Plants and pollinators need to evolve in order to survive in
    a different environment, and... all our food crops might go the way of the American
    Chestnut and go extinct for a century or two. Can we in our billions feed on
    wild rice and mealworms if we need to?
    Food production is radically up in the last decades, and still sloping
    up hard.

    Not cattle in Texas; net cattle population has dropped since about 1975. That's horrifying. We are all doomed to live on tofu.

    (As I type this, I'm finishing a superb burger from, of all places, a Portugese restaurant. Burger and excellent fries were just $12 at
    Happy Hour.)

    The 'food production' has to match population growth, or the market corrects.
    Raw production numbers reflect population, not technology or absolute >capacity.

    Google for yield per acre for various crops over the last 100 years.
    It's amazing.

    Yeah; potatoes, for example, in the US yields have gone up about 2% per year during that
    period, measured in hundredweight/acre

    <https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/7573B5F6-DD10-30B1-8552-F0804AA1F841>

    That doesn't mean we have the same varieties (same nutrition and flavor) as the older
    cultivars, though. Tuning for mass of product isn't the same as improving the product.

    So, do the effects of progressive warming have a 2% per year projection? The 2010 loss
    of wheat crop to unprecedented heat was 5% of world harvest.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 29 04:41:47 2023
    On Fri, 29 Sep 2023 02:14:06 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
    wrote:

    On Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 12:19:46?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 23:55:52 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com>
    wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 7:11:45?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 17:44:27 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com>
    wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 1:21:19?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >> >> >
    It doesn't seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
    deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will >> >> >> be terrible.

    Warming is already a big deal. Plants and pollinators need to evolve in order to survive in
    a different environment, and... all our food crops might go the way of the American
    Chestnut and go extinct for a century or two. Can we in our billions feed on
    wild rice and mealworms if we need to?
    Food production is radically up in the last decades, and still sloping
    up hard.

    Not cattle in Texas; net cattle population has dropped since about 1975.
    That's horrifying. We are all doomed to live on tofu.

    (As I type this, I'm finishing a superb burger from, of all places, a
    Portugese restaurant. Burger and excellent fries were just $12 at
    Happy Hour.)

    The 'food production' has to match population growth, or the market corrects.
    Raw production numbers reflect population, not technology or absolute
    capacity.

    Google for yield per acre for various crops over the last 100 years.
    It's amazing.

    Yeah; potatoes, for example, in the US yields have gone up about 2% per year during that
    period, measured in hundredweight/acre

    <https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/7573B5F6-DD10-30B1-8552-F0804AA1F841>

    That doesn't mean we have the same varieties (same nutrition and flavor) as the older
    cultivars, though. Tuning for mass of product isn't the same as improving the
    product.

    Potatoes are so much better than they used to be. Yukon Golds and
    their variants are fabulous. I boil them fo an hour and mash, skin and
    all, with butter and salt. Leftovers make great panko-crusted potato
    pancakes, with some cheeze and onions and taragon.

    Potatoes are nutritionally wonderful and breeding has made them
    better.


    So, do the effects of progressive warming have a 2% per year projection? The 2010 loss
    of wheat crop to unprecedented heat was 5% of world harvest.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Fri Sep 29 05:01:30 2023
    On Friday, September 29, 2023 at 9:42:12 PM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
    On Fri, 29 Sep 2023 02:14:06 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com>
    wrote:
    On Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 12:19:46?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
    On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 23:55:52 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com>
    wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 7:11:45?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >> >> On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 17:44:27 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com> >> >> wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 1:21:19?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

    It doesn't seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big >> >> >> deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will
    be terrible.

    Warming is already a big deal. Plants and pollinators need to evolve in order to survive in
    a different environment, and... all our food crops might go the way of the American
    Chestnut and go extinct for a century or two. Can we in our billions feed on
    wild rice and mealworms if we need to?
    Food production is radically up in the last decades, and still sloping >> >> up hard.

    Not cattle in Texas; net cattle population has dropped since about 1975. >> That's horrifying. We are all doomed to live on tofu.

    (As I type this, I'm finishing a superb burger from, of all places, a
    Portugese restaurant. Burger and excellent fries were just $12 at
    Happy Hour.)

    The 'food production' has to match population growth, or the market corrects.
    Raw production numbers reflect population, not technology or absolute
    capacity.

    Google for yield per acre for various crops over the last 100 years.
    It's amazing.

    Yeah; potatoes, for example, in the US yields have gone up about 2% per year during that
    period, measured in hundredweight/acre

    <https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/7573B5F6-DD10-30B1-8552-F0804AA1F841>

    That doesn't mean we have the same varieties (same nutrition and flavor) as the older
    cultivars, though. Tuning for mass of product isn't the same as improving the
    product.

    Potatoes are so much better than they used to be.

    He may mean more addictive.

    Yukon Golds and their variants are fabulous. I boil them for an hour and mash, skin and all, with butter and salt. Leftovers make great panko-crusted potato pancakes, with some cheese and onions and taragon.

    Starch - almost pure starch. A long chain sugar that our digestive system can eventually break down into digestible sugars. You do get a bit of protein with it - enough to keep you alive - but you have to elsewhere for your fats (as in the added butter
    above). Soen fo the starch is resistant starch which makes it down though the stomach and small intestine, and to reach the large intestine as digestible fibre.

    Potatoes are nutritionally wonderful and breeding has made them better.

    Ask anybody of Irish extraction. They don't emphasise that their ancestors were starved out of Ireland by the potato famine.

    So, do the effects of progressive warming have a 2% per year projection? The 2010 loss of wheat crop to unprecedented heat was 5% of world harvest.

    Don't ask John Larkin. The climate change denial propaganda he relies on for his information on the subject skips this point.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From whit3rd@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Fri Sep 29 17:54:04 2023
    On Friday, September 29, 2023 at 4:42:12 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

    Potatoes are so much better than they used to be. Yukon Golds and
    their variants are fabulous. I boil them fo an hour and mash, skin and
    all, with butter and salt. Leftovers make great panko-crusted potato pancakes, with some cheeze and onions and taragon.

    No, russets make better mashed spuds, because you can wash/
    pare off the skins, and while the boil progresses, those skins
    can get oiled and roasted... very tasty appetizer, with a little
    salt.

    Red potatoes, and yukon gold are suitable for
    whole-thing-boil and mash. They're wrong, though, for
    my deep fryer; too sweet, I suppose, they turn dark instead
    of brown and crisp.

    My favorite sweet potatoes (Hayman's, yellow-flesh) are
    getting hard to find, and pricey.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Fred Bloggs@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 29 18:17:55 2023
    On Friday, September 29, 2023 at 8:54:09 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
    On Friday, September 29, 2023 at 4:42:12 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

    Potatoes are so much better than they used to be. Yukon Golds and
    their variants are fabulous. I boil them fo an hour and mash, skin and all, with butter and salt. Leftovers make great panko-crusted potato pancakes, with some cheeze and onions and taragon.
    No, russets make better mashed spuds, because you can wash/
    pare off the skins, and while the boil progresses, those skins
    can get oiled and roasted... very tasty appetizer, with a little
    salt.

    Red potatoes, and yukon gold are suitable for
    whole-thing-boil and mash. They're wrong, though, for
    my deep fryer; too sweet, I suppose, they turn dark instead
    of brown and crisp.

    My favorite sweet potatoes (Hayman's, yellow-flesh) are
    getting hard to find, and pricey.

    https://www.webmd.com/diabetes/carbs-potatoes-blood-sugar

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From a a@21:1/5 to whit3rd@gmail.com on Mon Oct 2 03:36:08 2023
    XPost: free.spam

    The idiot whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> persisting in being an Off-topic troll...

    --
    whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

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    Subject: Re: New study definitively confirms gulf stream weakening
    From: whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
    Injection-Date: Fri, 29 Sep 2023 09:14:07 +0000
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  • From a a@21:1/5 to Fred Bloggs on Mon Oct 2 03:36:21 2023
    XPost: free.spam

    The idiot Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> persisting in being an Off-topic troll...

    --
    Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

    X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:4393:b0:76d:ada1:d841 with SMTP id a19-20020a05620a439300b0076dada1d841mr88852qkp.7.1696036676866;
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  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com on Mon Oct 2 10:28:54 2023
    On Fri, 29 Sep 2023 18:17:55 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

    On Friday, September 29, 2023 at 8:54:09?PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
    On Friday, September 29, 2023 at 4:42:12?AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

    Potatoes are so much better than they used to be. Yukon Golds and
    their variants are fabulous. I boil them fo an hour and mash, skin and
    all, with butter and salt. Leftovers make great panko-crusted potato
    pancakes, with some cheeze and onions and taragon.
    No, russets make better mashed spuds, because you can wash/
    pare off the skins, and while the boil progresses, those skins
    can get oiled and roasted... very tasty appetizer, with a little
    salt.

    Red potatoes, and yukon gold are suitable for
    whole-thing-boil and mash. They're wrong, though, for
    my deep fryer; too sweet, I suppose, they turn dark instead
    of brown and crisp.

    My favorite sweet potatoes (Hayman's, yellow-flesh) are
    getting hard to find, and pricey.

    https://www.webmd.com/diabetes/carbs-potatoes-blood-sugar

    Always look at the dark side of everything, Fred.

    That's really weird.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Mon Oct 2 18:47:52 2023
    On Tuesday, October 3, 2023 at 4:29:07 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
    On Fri, 29 Sep 2023 18:17:55 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    On Friday, September 29, 2023 at 8:54:09?PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
    On Friday, September 29, 2023 at 4:42:12?AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

    Potatoes are so much better than they used to be. Yukon Golds and
    their variants are fabulous. I boil them fo an hour and mash, skin and >> > all, with butter and salt. Leftovers make great panko-crusted potato
    pancakes, with some cheeze and onions and taragon.
    No, russets make better mashed spuds, because you can wash/
    pare off the skins, and while the boil progresses, those skins
    can get oiled and roasted... very tasty appetizer, with a little
    salt.

    Red potatoes, and yukon gold are suitable for
    whole-thing-boil and mash. They're wrong, though, for
    my deep fryer; too sweet, I suppose, they turn dark instead
    of brown and crisp.

    My favorite sweet potatoes (Hayman's, yellow-flesh) are
    getting hard to find, and pricey.

    https://www.webmd.com/diabetes/carbs-potatoes-blood-sugar

    Always look at the dark side of everything, Fred.

    That's really weird.

    John Larkin hasn't noticed that type 2 diabetes - a side effect of obesity - is endemic in the USA.

    The incidence there at 8911 per 100,000, s actually lower than in Germany - 9091and the Netherlands - 11,344 - but type 2 diabetes is also a a disease of old age, and the US expectancy of life is relatively poor.

    Of course Australians, who live longer than the Dutch or the Germans, let alone Americans, have an even lower rate of 5235 per 100,000. Diet may well come into it.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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