• Re: Antarctic sea-ice at 'mind-blowing' low alarms experts

    From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to Fred Bloggs on Sun Sep 17 05:44:17 2023
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 10:19:26 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    As if Antarctic sea ice were the only feature of the planet that moderates climate change. It's not as if it has gone - the minimum extent is down to about half the minimum we observed i recent years.

    The step from there to human extinction is a very long stretch. You might like to start trying to fill in the case and effect chain. but that would take work, and you aren't up for that.,

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    Sure. Anthropogenic global warming is having a visible effect.It's unlikely to take us all the way to species extinction.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Fred Bloggs@21:1/5 to All on Sun Sep 17 05:19:20 2023
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Fred Bloggs@21:1/5 to Anthony William Sloman on Sun Sep 17 05:56:02 2023
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:44:24 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 10:19:26 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    As if Antarctic sea ice were the only feature of the planet that moderates climate change. It's not as if it has gone - the minimum extent is down to about half the minimum we observed i recent years.

    You're not very good at awareness of the dynamics at play. If anything we're finding very major changes can occur quite rapidly and unexpectedly. Hurricane intensification is one such example, toppling temperature records by large amounts and
    simultaneously over fairly vast expanses of continents is another, unbelievably intense torrential downpours of yearly precipitation totals within a timespan of hours are another, the list goes on.


    The step from there to human extinction is a very long stretch. You might like to start trying to fill in the case and effect chain. but that would take work, and you aren't up for that.,

    Not at all, mankind's lifeline is more fragile than anyone will admit to.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.
    Sure. Anthropogenic global warming is having a visible effect.It's unlikely to take us all the way to species extinction.

    They're outside the realm of likelihoods and more into certainty.


    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to Fred Bloggs on Sun Sep 17 07:02:16 2023
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 10:56:07 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:44:24 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 10:19:26 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    As if Antarctic sea ice were the only feature of the planet that moderates climate change. It's not as if it has gone - the minimum extent is down to about half the minimum we observed i recent years.

    You're not very good at awareness of the dynamics at play.

    I don't seem to share your bizarre misapprehensions.

    If anything we're finding very major changes can occur quite rapidly and unexpectedly. Hurricane intensification is one such example,

    Hurricane intensification was widely predicted. More area of ocean above 26.3 C was always expected to feed bigger, fiercer hurricanes. I mentioned it here years ago. Flyguy has posted nonsense on the subject more recently.

    toppling temperature records by large amounts and simultaneously over fairly vast expanses of continents is another, unbelievably intense torrential downpours of yearly precipitation totals within a timespan of hours are another, the list goes on.

    What did you think anthropogenioc global warming was going to look like? Temperature records haven't been broken by "large amounts" - they've just been broken, Warmer ocean surfaces feed more water vapour into the air which eventually falls as rain.
    Thunder heads drop a lot of water as rain whenever they form - there's nothing "unbelievably intense" about the ones we are seeing today.

    The mess in Libya was badly maintained dams that broke.

    The step from there to human extinction is a very long stretch. You might like to start trying to fill in the case and effect chain. but that would take work, and you aren't up for that.

    Not at all, mankind's lifeline is more fragile than anyone will admit to.

    I'm sure there are people around with your kind of depressive mental disease, and most of them will be spouting the same kind of rubbish that you are.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    Sure. Anthropogenic global warming is having a visible effect.It's unlikely to take us all the way to species extinction.

    They're outside the realm of likelihoods and more into certainty.

    Species extinction is very unlikely. You can do all the handwaving you like, but your radical alarmism is simply nuts - quite as silly as John Larkin's denialism.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com on Sun Sep 17 08:33:55 2023
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing
    feedbacks. That makes no sense.


    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

    Got to admire your attention span at being terrified of life.

    Stupid people like me just enjoy things before some supernova toasts
    us all.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Sun Sep 17 08:53:33 2023
    On Monday, September 18, 2023 at 1:34:10 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing feedbacks. That makes no sense.

    That's exactly what was required to flip the earth from inter-glacials to ice ages. The Milankovich effect is tiny and it takes the ice-albedo effect and CO2 being sucked into colder oceans to make it work. It's still a flip between two stable states.
    It's pretty rare for the continents to get into a configuration where this can work - the present series of ice ages and interglacials started about 2.6 million years ago. Before that there was less ice cover and the planet was a bit warmer, and more
    stable, and sea levels were higher.

    Fred Bloggs is getting hysterical about the prospect of moving back to that more stable state. It's not a climate our agriculture was developed to exploit, so some of us may end up with food supply issues, which could be bad enough to create a
    population crash, but extinction is improbable.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

    Got to admire your attention span at being terrified of life.

    He's not terrified of life. He's just not a pollyanna like you. Anthropogenic global warming is real and is already creating problems, but probably not quite a extreme as Fred likes to imagine.

    <snip>

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com on Sun Sep 17 10:07:02 2023
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

    If you don't get The New York Times, pop over to a 7-11 and get the
    Sunday edition. There's a wonderful, hilarious article about
    eco-neurosis.

    Eco-psychiatry is a profitable, growing industry.

    Some wussses won't have kids because they know that the planet is
    doomed. That will improve the gene pool.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Flyguy@21:1/5 to Anthony William Sloman on Sun Sep 17 18:43:35 2023
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 7:02:21 AM UTC-7, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 10:56:07 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:44:24 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 10:19:26 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    As if Antarctic sea ice were the only feature of the planet that moderates climate change. It's not as if it has gone - the minimum extent is down to about half the minimum we observed i recent years.

    You're not very good at awareness of the dynamics at play.
    I don't seem to share your bizarre misapprehensions.
    If anything we're finding very major changes can occur quite rapidly and unexpectedly. Hurricane intensification is one such example,
    Hurricane intensification was widely predicted. More area of ocean above 26.3 C was always expected to feed bigger, fiercer hurricanes. I mentioned it here years ago. Flyguy has posted nonsense on the subject more recently.

    And WHY would anyone listen to the "nonsense" coming from an idiot such as yourself that thinks that NUKING and FIREBOMBING your OWN COUNTRY is a good idea?
    toppling temperature records by large amounts and simultaneously over fairly vast expanses of continents is another, unbelievably intense torrential downpours of yearly precipitation totals within a timespan of hours are another, the list goes on.
    What did you think anthropogenioc global warming was going to look like? Temperature records haven't been broken by "large amounts" - they've just been broken, Warmer ocean surfaces feed more water vapour into the air which eventually falls as rain.
    Thunder heads drop a lot of water as rain whenever they form - there's nothing "unbelievably intense" about the ones we are seeing today.

    The idiot can't even spell "anthropogenic"


    The mess in Libya was badly maintained dams that broke.
    The step from there to human extinction is a very long stretch. You might like to start trying to fill in the case and effect chain. but that would take work, and you aren't up for that.

    Not at all, mankind's lifeline is more fragile than anyone will admit to.
    I'm sure there are people around with your kind of depressive mental disease, and most of them will be spouting the same kind of rubbish that you are.
    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    Sure. Anthropogenic global warming is having a visible effect.It's unlikely to take us all the way to species extinction.

    They're outside the realm of likelihoods and more into certainty.
    Species extinction is very unlikely. You can do all the handwaving you like, but your radical alarmism is simply nuts - quite as silly as John Larkin's denialism.

    Not nearly as silly as your cult-like belief in a climate catastrophe.


    --
    Bozo Bill Slowman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From whit3rd@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Sun Sep 17 21:23:19 2023
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:34:10 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing
    feedbacks. That makes no sense.

    Straw man argument, and senseless blather. There's a PLANET full of feedback effects, positive (latching)
    and negative ('stabilizing'?), the possibilities are unlimited. There's no known truly 'stabilizing', i.e. equilibrium-producing,
    effect, unless you count things like the Paris accords,
    and all the other John Larkin posts indicate he... doesn't do that.

    Welcome to your life
    there's no turning back
    ....Tears for Fears, 1985

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to Flyguy on Sun Sep 17 21:47:09 2023
    On Monday, September 18, 2023 at 11:43:39 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 7:02:21 AM UTC-7, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 10:56:07 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:44:24 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 10:19:26 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    As if Antarctic sea ice were the only feature of the planet that moderates climate change. It's not as if it has gone - the minimum extent is down to about half the minimum we observed i recent years.

    You're not very good at awareness of the dynamics at play.

    I don't seem to share your bizarre misapprehensions.

    If anything we're finding very major changes can occur quite rapidly and unexpectedly. Hurricane intensification is one such example,

    Hurricane intensification was widely predicted. More area of ocean above 26.3 C was always expected to feed bigger, fiercer hurricanes. I mentioned it here years ago. Flyguy has posted nonsense on the subject more recently.

    And WHY would anyone listen to the "nonsense" coming from an idiot such as yourself that thinks that NUKING and FIREBOMBING your OWN COUNTRY is a good idea?

    Sewage Sweeper invents his own nonsense - his misunderstandings of what I've posted are bizarre, but no stanger than his misunderstandings of stuff he has posted in the delusion that it supported his demented poit of view.

    toppling temperature records by large amounts and simultaneously over fairly vast expanses of continents is another, unbelievably intense torrential downpours of yearly precipitation totals within a timespan of hours are another, the list goes on.

    What did you think anthropogenic global warming was going to look like? Temperature records haven't been broken by "large amounts" - they've just been broken, Warmer ocean surfaces feed more water vapour into the air which eventually falls as rain.
    Thunder heads drop a lot of water as rain whenever they form - there's nothing "unbelievably intense" about the ones we are seeing today.

    The mess in Libya was badly maintained dams that broke.

    The step from there to human extinction is a very long stretch. You might like to start trying to fill in the case and effect chain. but that would take work, and you aren't up for that.

    Not at all, mankind's lifeline is more fragile than anyone will admit to.

    I'm sure there are people around with your kind of depressive mental disease, and most of them will be spouting the same kind of rubbish that you are.
    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    Sure. Anthropogenic global warming is having a visible effect.It's unlikely to take us all the way to species extinction.

    They're outside the realm of likelihoods and more into certainty.

    Species extinction is very unlikely. You can do all the handwaving you like, but your radical alarmism is simply nuts - quite as silly as John Larkin's denialism.

    Not nearly as silly as your cult-like belief in a climate catastrophe.

    Main-stream science isn't any kind of cult. You clearly didn't get the kind of academic training that would let you understand it, or if you did, senile dementia has washed it all away.
    Since I'm not an anonymous troll I can cite links to my own cited scientific papers - here's one. It's now got 28 citations;

    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0957-0233/7/11/015/meta

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Martin Brown@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Mon Sep 18 11:02:55 2023
    On 17/09/2023 16:33, John Larkin wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing
    feedbacks. That makes no sense.

    That isn't so far off the truth when you start losing large areas of
    polar ice. Open sea has a much lower albedo and absorbs vastly more heat
    than nice fresh snow. Even dirty snow is much better than open water.
    There is substantial positive feedback at least initially.

    There is a fair amount of hysteresis in the system. So if we push it too
    far over the edge then it won't come back without us making much bigger sacrifices. The graph of this years ice cover for 2023 is a long way
    down from all previous years so it may already be too late. If 2024
    follows a similar pattern we will lose a lot of sea ice very fast.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66724246

    The stabilising effect that cuts in eventually is that outgoing thermal radiation is highly non-linear and increases as absolute temperature to
    the 4th power - T^4. The gradient getting ever steeper as T increases.

    That increase in outgoing thermal radiation tends to win out once
    ambient temperature hits around 57C today. 1.1^4 ~ 1.46x

    Now probably isn't a good time to buy low lying real estate!

    I once had access to one of the simulations and attempted to boil the equatorial oceans by adding a very large slug of CO2.
    It was surprisingly difficult to push it over the edge.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

    Got to admire your attention span at being terrified of life.

    Stupid people like me just enjoy things before some supernova toasts
    us all.

    Betelgeuse or Eta-Carina are potential candidates to go SN fairly nearby
    if you really want to worry about such things. Betelgeuse is nearer and
    still isn't much of a threat but it will be very spectacular when it
    goes pop! A near point source as bright or brighter than our moon.

    https://www.jameswebbdiscovery.com/faqs/if-betelgeuse-goes-supernova-will-it-affect-earth

    Eta Carina is really on its last legs so could go at any moment -
    fortunately it is also far enough away to do us no harm.

    https://esahubble.org/images/potw1208a/

    Supernovae can typically outshine all of the stars in their host galaxy
    for a few days or weeks. Makes them very handy as standard candles.

    If a super nova was closer to us than 25 light years then I might get
    worried - the neutrino flux and UV levels would be interesting. Earth's
    ozone layer would be completely stripped for a few months at least.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near-Earth_supernova#Risk_by_supernova_type

    --
    Martin Brown

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  • From =?UTF-8?B?w5bDtiBUaWli?=@21:1/5 to Fred Bloggs on Mon Sep 18 04:28:30 2023
    On Monday, 18 September 2023 at 14:19:55 UTC+3, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 11:34:10 AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.
    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing feedbacks. That makes no sense.
    If there's one thing to be learned from the work of the paleo-climatologists it's that the Earth is anything but stable. Stability is just a very slow moving transient that eventually leads to an extreme, setting forces in motion to slowly move things
    in the opposite direction, usually another extreme with overshoot. It's just back and forth, back and forth...

    From palaeontology research it seems that major extinction events were caused by asteroids, like ... <https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/newfound-asteroid-may-strike-earth-in-2046-nasa-says>
    ... and super-volcanoes like ... <https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt>

    The climate change will likely be nothing like that. Just more frequent, inconvenient and costly annoyances. More events like hurricanes, floods, heatwaves, severe hail etc. Some will die, more will be temporarily evacuated, property will be destroyed or damaged. Some regions will turn permanently flooded or into wastelands or deserts, people will migrate away. That is not causing extinction of humankind.



    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

    Got to admire your attention span at being terrified of life.

    Stupid people like me just enjoy things before some supernova toasts
    us all.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Fred Bloggs@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Mon Sep 18 04:19:48 2023
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 11:34:10 AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.
    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing
    feedbacks. That makes no sense.

    If there's one thing to be learned from the work of the paleo-climatologists it's that the Earth is anything but stable. Stability is just a very slow moving transient that eventually leads to an extreme, setting forces in motion to slowly move things
    in the opposite direction, usually another extreme with overshoot. It's just back and forth, back and forth...



    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

    Got to admire your attention span at being terrified of life.

    Stupid people like me just enjoy things before some supernova toasts
    us all.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to '''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk on Mon Sep 18 07:41:43 2023
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 11:02:55 +0100, Martin Brown
    <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

    On 17/09/2023 16:33, John Larkin wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing
    feedbacks. That makes no sense.

    That isn't so far off the truth when you start losing large areas of
    polar ice. Open sea has a much lower albedo and absorbs vastly more heat
    than nice fresh snow. Even dirty snow is much better than open water.
    There is substantial positive feedback at least initially.

    If there is net positive albedo feedback, we'd have no ice or we'd be
    100% covered with ice.


    There is a fair amount of hysteresis in the system.

    Why? Where?

    Earth has had tropical phases and ice ages, without humans.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 18 07:51:32 2023
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 04:28:30 -0700 (PDT), Öö Tiib <ootiib@hot.ee>
    wrote:

    On Monday, 18 September 2023 at 14:19:55 UTC+3, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 11:34:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.
    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing
    feedbacks. That makes no sense.
    If there's one thing to be learned from the work of the paleo-climatologists it's that the Earth is anything but stable. Stability is just a very slow moving transient that eventually leads to an extreme, setting forces in motion to slowly move things
    in the opposite direction, usually another extreme with overshoot. It's just back and forth, back and forth...

    From palaeontology research it seems that major extinction events were caused >by asteroids, like ... ><https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/newfound-asteroid-may-strike-earth-in-2046-nasa-says>
    ... and super-volcanoes like ... ><https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt>

    The climate change will likely be nothing like that. Just more frequent, >inconvenient and costly annoyances. More events like hurricanes, floods, >heatwaves, severe hail etc. Some will die, more will be temporarily evacuated, >property will be destroyed or damaged. Some regions will turn permanently >flooded or into wastelands or deserts, people will migrate away. That is not >causing extinction of humankind.

    https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-deaths-from-extreme-weather/

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com on Mon Sep 18 07:48:11 2023
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 04:19:48 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 11:34:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.
    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing
    feedbacks. That makes no sense.

    If there's one thing to be learned from the work of the paleo-climatologists it's that the Earth is anything but stable. Stability is just a very slow moving transient that eventually leads to an extreme, setting forces in motion to slowly move things
    in the opposite direction, usually another extreme with overshoot. It's just back and forth, back and forth...


    Are you proposing an oscillating system? What causes the turnarounds?

    Past ice/warm cycles don't look periodic to me. Extrnal and maybe
    volcanic forcings sound more likely.

    Lots of people do "control theory" by guessing. That doesn't work,
    because numbers matter. Positive feeedback doesn't necessarily change
    a system much, but most people (and journalists) asssume radical
    results.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Mon Sep 18 08:20:10 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 12:48:31 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 04:19:48 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 11:34:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.
    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing
    feedbacks. That makes no sense.

    If there's one thing to be learned from the work of the paleo-climatologists it's that the Earth is anything but stable. Stability is just a very slow moving transient that eventually leads to an extreme, setting forces in motion to slowly move things
    in the opposite direction, usually another extreme with overshoot. It's just back and forth, back and forth...

    Are you proposing an oscillating system? What causes the turnarounds?

    We've had an alternation of ice ages and interglacials for the last 2.6 million years. The Milankovitch effect is the cause, but it has to be amplified a lot by various positive feedbacks to create the alternations we can see in the geological record.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

    Past ice/warm cycles don't look periodic to me. External and maybe volcanic forcings sound more likely.

    So you haven't looked at the literature. Anthropogenic global warming generated a lot of interest in the subject, and the mechanisms are now tolerably well understood, by people who've gone to throuble of reading about them

    Lots of people do "control theory" by guessing.

    Nobody that I've worked with.

    That doesn't work, because numbers matter. Positive feeedback doesn't necessarily change a system much, but most people (and journalists) assume radical results.

    I once used about 1.003 of positive feedback to linearise a platinum resistance thermometer. The engineer who took over the project swore that it would make the system unstable and put in a diode break (more expensive and less accurate). Honeywell turned
    out to have adopted the scheme about the same time I proposed it at Eurotherm in the UK.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Mon Sep 18 08:34:13 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 12:42:04 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 11:02:55 +0100, Martin Brown
    <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

    On 17/09/2023 16:33, John Larkin wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing
    feedbacks. That makes no sense.

    That isn't so far off the truth when you start losing large areas of
    polar ice. Open sea has a much lower albedo and absorbs vastly more heat >than nice fresh snow. Even dirty snow is much better than open water. >There is substantial positive feedback at least initially.

    If there is net positive albedo feedback, we'd have no ice or we'd be 100% covered with ice.

    It depends on the extent of the positive feedback, as you'd know if you had ever used it in a circuit.

    There is a fair amount of hysteresis in the system.

    Why? Where?

    Hysteresis probably isn't the right word. Lags might be. It takes a while for the oceans to warm up and some of the CO2 they've dissolved to come out of solution.

    Ice sheets also take a while to build up, through they do have an interesting tendency to slide off into the ocean and stop the Gulf steam for 1300+/-10 years (the Younger Dryas)

    Earth has had tropical phases and ice ages, without humans.

    It's had ice ages and interglacials for the last 2.6 million years

    https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/hasnt-earth-warmed-and-cooled-naturally-throughout-history

    Do try to get better informed.

    --
    Bil Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From =?UTF-8?B?w5bDtiBUaWli?=@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Mon Sep 18 16:21:19 2023
    On Monday, 18 September 2023 at 17:51:50 UTC+3, John Larkin wrote:
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 04:28:30 -0700 (PDT), Öö Tiib <oot...@hot.ee>
    wrote:
    On Monday, 18 September 2023 at 14:19:55 UTC+3, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 11:34:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.
    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing
    feedbacks. That makes no sense.
    If there's one thing to be learned from the work of the paleo-climatologists it's that the Earth is anything but stable. Stability is just a very slow moving transient that eventually leads to an extreme, setting forces in motion to slowly move
    things in the opposite direction, usually another extreme with overshoot. It's just back and forth, back and forth...

    From palaeontology research it seems that major extinction events were caused
    by asteroids, like ... ><https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/newfound-asteroid-may-strike-earth-in-2046-nasa-says>
    ... and super-volcanoes like ... ><https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt>

    The climate change will likely be nothing like that. Just more frequent, >inconvenient and costly annoyances. More events like hurricanes, floods, >heatwaves, severe hail etc. Some will die, more will be temporarily evacuated,
    property will be destroyed or damaged. Some regions will turn permanently >flooded or into wastelands or deserts, people will migrate away. That is not
    causing extinction of humankind.

    https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-deaths-from-extreme-weather/

    That is the heartland institute that denies every science and statistics, and just draws whatever lines were ordered. Someone pays them and
    tobacco smoking does not cause cancer, someone else and Elvis is alive.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 18 18:08:58 2023
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 16:21:19 -0700 (PDT), Öö Tiib <ootiib@hot.ee>
    wrote:

    On Monday, 18 September 2023 at 17:51:50 UTC+3, John Larkin wrote:
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 04:28:30 -0700 (PDT), Öö Tiib <oot...@hot.ee>
    wrote:
    On Monday, 18 September 2023 at 14:19:55 UTC+3, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 11:34:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.
    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing
    feedbacks. That makes no sense.
    If there's one thing to be learned from the work of the paleo-climatologists it's that the Earth is anything but stable. Stability is just a very slow moving transient that eventually leads to an extreme, setting forces in motion to slowly move
    things in the opposite direction, usually another extreme with overshoot. It's just back and forth, back and forth...

    From palaeontology research it seems that major extinction events were caused
    by asteroids, like ...
    <https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/newfound-asteroid-may-strike-earth-in-2046-nasa-says>
    ... and super-volcanoes like ...
    <https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt>

    The climate change will likely be nothing like that. Just more frequent,
    inconvenient and costly annoyances. More events like hurricanes, floods,
    heatwaves, severe hail etc. Some will die, more will be temporarily evacuated,
    property will be destroyed or damaged. Some regions will turn permanently >> >flooded or into wastelands or deserts, people will migrate away. That is not
    causing extinction of humankind.

    https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-deaths-from-extreme-weather/

    That is the heartland institute that denies every science and statistics, and >just draws whatever lines were ordered. Someone pays them and
    tobacco smoking does not cause cancer, someone else and Elvis is alive.

    The source is cited.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Mon Sep 18 21:23:38 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:09:16 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 16:21:19 -0700 (PDT), 嘱 Tiib <oot...@hot.ee>
    wrote:
    On Monday, 18 September 2023 at 17:51:50 UTC+3, John Larkin wrote:
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 04:28:30 -0700 (PDT), 嘱 Tiib <oot...@hot.ee>
    wrote:
    On Monday, 18 September 2023 at 14:19:55 UTC+3, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 11:34:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote: >> >> > On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.
    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing
    feedbacks. That makes no sense.
    If there's one thing to be learned from the work of the paleo-climatologists it's that the Earth is anything but stable. Stability is just a very slow moving transient that eventually leads to an extreme, setting forces in motion to slowly move
    things in the opposite direction, usually another extreme with overshoot. It's just back and forth, back and forth...

    From palaeontology research it seems that major extinction events were caused
    by asteroids, like ...
    <https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/newfound-asteroid-may-strike-earth-in-2046-nasa-says>
    ... and super-volcanoes like ...
    <https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt>

    The climate change will likely be nothing like that. Just more frequent, >> >inconvenient and costly annoyances. More events like hurricanes, floods, >> >heatwaves, severe hail etc. Some will die, more will be temporarily evacuated,
    property will be destroyed or damaged. Some regions will turn permanently
    flooded or into wastelands or deserts, people will migrate away. That is not
    causing extinction of humankind.

    https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-deaths-from-extreme-weather/

    That is the heartland institute that denies every science and statistics, and
    just draws whatever lines were ordered. Someone pays them and
    tobacco smoking does not cause cancer, someone else and Elvis is alive.

    The source is cited.

    But you've ignored the fact that it is a partisan source that gets paid to present a particular point of view that hasn't got a lot of credibility, but is favoured by monied interests.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 18 21:20:08 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 9:21:24 AM UTC+10, Öö Tiib wrote:
    On Monday, 18 September 2023 at 17:51:50 UTC+3, John Larkin wrote:
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 04:28:30 -0700 (PDT), Öö Tiib <oot...@hot.ee>
    wrote:
    On Monday, 18 September 2023 at 14:19:55 UTC+3, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 11:34:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote: >> > On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.
    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing
    feedbacks. That makes no sense.
    If there's one thing to be learned from the work of the paleo-climatologists it's that the Earth is anything but stable. Stability is just a very slow moving transient that eventually leads to an extreme, setting forces in motion to slowly move
    things in the opposite direction, usually another extreme with overshoot. It's just back and forth, back and forth...

    From palaeontology research it seems that major extinction events were caused
    by asteroids, like ... ><https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/newfound-asteroid-may-strike-earth-in-2046-nasa-says>
    ... and super-volcanoes like ... ><https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt>

    The climate change will likely be nothing like that. Just more frequent, >inconvenient and costly annoyances. More events like hurricanes, floods, >heatwaves, severe hail etc. Some will die, more will be temporarily evacuated,
    property will be destroyed or damaged. Some regions will turn permanently >flooded or into wastelands or deserts, people will migrate away. That is not
    causing extinction of humankind.

    https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-deaths-from-extreme-weather/

    That is the heartland institute that denies every science and statistics, and
    just draws whatever lines were ordered. Someone pays them and
    tobacco smoking does not cause cancer, someone else and Elvis is alive.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchants_of_Doubt

    It has been documented. The Heartland Institute is just one of several organisations set up reduce public faith in inconvenient scientific facts for people prepared to pay for the service.

    It's a one more example of American business being willing to pay for misleading propaganda that lets them make more money. Gullible twits like John Larkin fall for it all the time.

    https://www.bloomsbury.com/au/big-myth-9781635573572/

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Flyguy@21:1/5 to Anthony William Sloman on Mon Sep 18 21:43:47 2023
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 9:47:14 PM UTC-7, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Monday, September 18, 2023 at 11:43:39 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 7:02:21 AM UTC-7, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 10:56:07 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:44:24 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 10:19:26 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    As if Antarctic sea ice were the only feature of the planet that moderates climate change. It's not as if it has gone - the minimum extent is down to about half the minimum we observed i recent years.

    You're not very good at awareness of the dynamics at play.

    I don't seem to share your bizarre misapprehensions.

    If anything we're finding very major changes can occur quite rapidly and unexpectedly. Hurricane intensification is one such example,

    Hurricane intensification was widely predicted. More area of ocean above 26.3 C was always expected to feed bigger, fiercer hurricanes. I mentioned it here years ago. Flyguy has posted nonsense on the subject more recently.

    And WHY would anyone listen to the "nonsense" coming from an idiot such as yourself that thinks that NUKING and FIREBOMBING your OWN COUNTRY is a good idea?
    Sewage Sweeper invents his own nonsense - his misunderstandings of what I've posted are bizarre, but no stanger than his misunderstandings of stuff he has posted in the delusion that it supported his demented poit of view.

    Hey Bozo, let's get something VERY CLEAR here: I DIDN'T invent this NONSENSE that YOU posted - YOU DID!

    BTW, you can't spell "stranger" OR "point" you IDIOT.

    toppling temperature records by large amounts and simultaneously over fairly vast expanses of continents is another, unbelievably intense torrential downpours of yearly precipitation totals within a timespan of hours are another, the list goes on.


    What did you think anthropogenic global warming was going to look like? Temperature records haven't been broken by "large amounts" - they've just been broken, Warmer ocean surfaces feed more water vapour into the air which eventually falls as rain.
    Thunder heads drop a lot of water as rain whenever they form - there's nothing "unbelievably intense" about the ones we are seeing today.

    The mess in Libya was badly maintained dams that broke.

    The step from there to human extinction is a very long stretch. You might like to start trying to fill in the case and effect chain. but that would take work, and you aren't up for that.

    Not at all, mankind's lifeline is more fragile than anyone will admit to.

    I'm sure there are people around with your kind of depressive mental disease, and most of them will be spouting the same kind of rubbish that you are.
    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    Sure. Anthropogenic global warming is having a visible effect.It's unlikely to take us all the way to species extinction.

    They're outside the realm of likelihoods and more into certainty.

    Species extinction is very unlikely. You can do all the handwaving you like, but your radical alarmism is simply nuts - quite as silly as John Larkin's denialism.

    Not nearly as silly as your cult-like belief in a climate catastrophe.
    Main-stream science isn't any kind of cult. You clearly didn't get the kind of academic training that would let you understand it, or if you did, senile dementia has washed it all away.
    Since I'm not an anonymous troll I can cite links to my own cited scientific papers - here's one. It's now got 28 citations;

    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0957-0233/7/11/015/meta

    --
    Bozo Bill Slowman, Sydney

    Bozo's Sewage Sweeper

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From upsidedown@downunder.com@21:1/5 to '''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk on Tue Sep 19 08:01:41 2023
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 11:02:55 +0100, Martin Brown
    <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

    On 17/09/2023 16:33, John Larkin wrote:



    That isn't so far off the truth when you start losing large areas of
    polar ice. Open sea has a much lower albedo and absorbs vastly more heat
    than nice fresh snow. Even dirty snow is much better than open water.
    There is substantial positive feedback at least initially.

    On the poles the sun never rise above 23.5 degrees so the gracing
    angles are quite low even in the summer.

    For more than 6 month the sun is below the horizon all day long (no
    irradiative heating) or at so low angles that not much fall on
    horizontal surfaces (in addition to air mass losses).

    Thus the annual heating effect is not that great ass some alarmists
    seem to think. Warm ocean streams carry solar heat from the lower
    latitudes at least on the northern polar region, explaining ice
    melting even the late fall..

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From John Robertson@21:1/5 to Fred Bloggs on Mon Sep 18 23:03:28 2023
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the
    Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you
    weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    For that you should be ashamed and quite possibly locked up as potential terrorists. You seek to terrorize people, what else can we call you? You
    are no better than 10-10 blowing up skeptics who questioned the religion
    of Global Warming.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lReB3GUhKe4

    John :-#(#


    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to Flyguy on Mon Sep 18 23:53:23 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 2:43:51 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 9:47:14 PM UTC-7, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Monday, September 18, 2023 at 11:43:39 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 7:02:21 AM UTC-7, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 10:56:07 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:44:24 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 10:19:26 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:

    <snip>

    Sewage Sweeper invents his own nonsense - his misunderstandings of what I've posted are bizarre, but no stranger than his misunderstandings of stuff he has posted in the delusion that it supported his demented point of view.

    Hey Bozo, let's get something VERY CLEAR here: I DIDN'T invent this NONSENSE that YOU posted - YOU DID!

    Actually, you did. What I posted didn't mean what you like to claim it does, and what you post has a very lose connection to what I posted. What is clear is that you have a very imperfect grasp of reality and are in denial about the seriousness of your
    senile dementia.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Robertson on Tue Sep 19 00:11:39 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 4:03:39 PM UTC+10, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    Fred does over-interpret the climate scientific warnings.

    They aren't frightening the greedy children of the planet anything like enough. The ones that have been making a lot of money out of digging up fossil carbon and selling it to be burnt as fuel are spending some of the money they make on lying propaganda
    that is pretty lame, but got enough to miusdlead gullible twits like you aren John Larkin.

    For that you should be ashamed and quite possibly locked up as potential terrorists.

    The climate change denial propaganda crew should be locked up for simple fraud - they are lying in the hope of getting away with make money out of anti-social activities for a few years longer.

    The dangers of persisting anthropogenic global warming may not be as dramatic and immediate as Fred like to think, but they are real and should be minimised with some enthusiasm. Telling people about real risks isn't terrorism. The fact that you and John
    Larkin are too dim to realise that you are being lied too about the reality of the risks doesn't mean that they don't exist.

    You seek to terrorize people, what else can we call you? You are no better than 10-10 blowing up skeptics who questioned the religion of Global Warming.

    It's not any kind of religion. If you can't tell the difference between the conclusions of scientific research filtered through the peer-reviewed literature, and dogma based on some mystical revelation, there's not a lot of hope for you. Put your affairs
    in the hands of some who still has working brain and retire to an asylum for the feeble-minded. Pity about the company you will be keeping.

    <snipped the stuff that John ignored, but failed to snip>

    --
    Bil Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From whit3rd@21:1/5 to John Robertson on Tue Sep 19 00:27:20 2023
    On Monday, September 18, 2023 at 11:03:39 PM UTC-7, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    Yeah, 'decadal' meaning ten-year average; this is about an alarming THIS YEAR ONLY
    drop, which (because this year isn't over) isn't in that data. That's cherry-picking,
    a familiar fallacy in data analysis.

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you
    weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    That's not about ice at all. It's about spin, and 'frightening children' doesn't
    mean the ice observation or predicted implication is wrong.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Robertson on Tue Sep 19 00:42:53 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 4:03:39 PM UTC+10, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the
    Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    Fred does over-interpret the climate science warnings.

    They aren't frightening the greedy children of the planet anything like enough. The ones that have been making a lot of money out of digging up fossil carbon and selling it to be burnt as fuel are spending some of the money they make on lying propaganda
    that is pretty lame, but good enough to mislead gullible twits like you and John Larkin.

    For that you should be ashamed and quite possibly locked up as potential terrorists.

    The climate change denial propaganda crew should be locked up for simple fraud - they are lying in the hope of getting away with making money out of their anti-social activities for a few years longer.

    The dangers of persisting anthropogenic global warming may not be as dramatic and immediate as Fred like to think, but they are real and should be minimised with some enthusiasm. Telling people about real risks isn't terrorism. The fact that you and John
    Larkin are too dim to realise that you are being lied too about the reality of the risks doesn't mean that they don't exist.

    You seek to terrorize people, what else can we call you? You are no better than 10-10 blowing up skeptics who questioned the religion of Global Warming.

    It's not any kind of religion. If you can't tell the difference between the conclusions of scientific research filtered through the peer-reviewed literature, and dogma based on some mystical revelation, there's not a lot of hope for you. Put your affairs
    in the hands of some who still has working brain and retire to an asylum for the feeble-minded. Pity about the company you will be keeping.

    <snipped the stuff that John ignored, but failed to snip>

    --
    Bil Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Martin Brown@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Tue Sep 19 09:36:42 2023
    On 18/09/2023 15:41, John Larkin wrote:
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 11:02:55 +0100, Martin Brown
    <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

    On 17/09/2023 16:33, John Larkin wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Sep 2023 05:19:20 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
    <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    You posit a tipping-point latching mechanism with no stabilizing
    feedbacks. That makes no sense.

    That isn't so far off the truth when you start losing large areas of
    polar ice. Open sea has a much lower albedo and absorbs vastly more heat
    than nice fresh snow. Even dirty snow is much better than open water.
    There is substantial positive feedback at least initially.

    If there is net positive albedo feedback, we'd have no ice or we'd be
    100% covered with ice.

    We have been close to both extremes in geological history.

    Even in the hottest previous conditions there are still parts of the
    planet near the poles in midwinter and at high altitude that will remain
    very cold indeed. Having all three phases of water present on our planet
    acts as a very powerful thermal buffer at each end of the range.

    Phase changes are the final stabiliser of last resort.

    No sun for a few months and clear skies from time to time makes for a
    very very cold environment.

    There is a fair amount of hysteresis in the system.

    Why? Where?

    Because of the net change in albedo. Once ice free it will stay ice free
    and some more will be nibbled off the following year. Worse problems
    with glaciers since losing weight off the leading edge allows the main
    glacier to move towards the sea even faster.

    The effect gets less as you get much nearer to the poles but is very
    pronounced at latitudes around 70 degrees.

    Earth has had tropical phases and ice ages, without humans.

    Driven by either vulcanism or the gradual evolution of the Earth's
    orbital elements aka Milankovitch cycles.

    --
    Martin Brown

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Fred Bloggs@21:1/5 to John Robertson on Tue Sep 19 06:15:49 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 2:03:39 AM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you
    weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    For that you should be ashamed and quite possibly locked up as potential terrorists. You seek to terrorize people, what else can we call you? You
    are no better than 10-10 blowing up skeptics who questioned the religion
    of Global Warming.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lReB3GUhKe4

    John :-#(#

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

    You're missing information in the original BBC article, which is:

    "It's so far outside anything we've seen, it's almost mind-blowing," says Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

    That's the same snow and ice center collecting the data for the NOAA page you linked. You might notice the anomaly for 2013 extent is -0.13% which is in stark contrast to typical yearly's of about -0.02 %.

    So, on the one hand you discount the significance of the BBC story, and then turn around and think you found a basis for your decision on a website produced by the very people making the BBC story.

    You tell me who's the lunatic here.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to Fred Bloggs on Tue Sep 19 06:30:54 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:15:54 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 2:03:39 AM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    For that you should be ashamed and quite possibly locked up as potential terrorists. You seek to terrorize people, what else can we call you? You are no better than 10-10 blowing up skeptics who questioned the religion of Global Warming.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lReB3GUhKe4

    John :-#(#

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

    You're missing information in the original BBC article, which is:

    "It's so far outside anything we've seen, it's almost mind-blowing," says Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

    That's not "information". It's justa verbal flourish.

    That's the same snow and ice center collecting the data for the NOAA page you linked. You might notice the anomaly for 2013 extent is -0.13% which is in stark contrast to typical yearly's of about -0.02 %.

    It's not in "stark contrast". It's just bigger. Bad years for ice cover are worse than regular years, and they show up less often.

    So, on the one hand you discount the significance of the BBC story, and then turn around and think you found a basis for your decision on a website produced by the very people making the BBC story.

    You tell me who's the lunatic here.

    It's definitely you. You want to make a epoch-making mountain out of a bigger than usual step along a drunkard's walk.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From sci.electronics.design@21:1/5 to Anthony William Sloman on Tue Sep 19 06:38:06 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 9:30:59 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:15:54 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 2:03:39 AM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    For that you should be ashamed and quite possibly locked up as potential terrorists. You seek to terrorize people, what else can we call you? You are no better than 10-10 blowing up skeptics who questioned the religion of Global Warming.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lReB3GUhKe4

    John :-#(#

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

    You're missing information in the original BBC article, which is:

    "It's so far outside anything we've seen, it's almost mind-blowing," says Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
    That's not "information". It's justa verbal flourish.

    That's the same snow and ice center collecting the data for the NOAA page you linked. You might notice the anomaly for 2013 extent is -0.13% which is in stark contrast to typical yearly's of about -0.02 %.
    It's not in "stark contrast". It's just bigger. Bad years for ice cover are worse than regular years, and they show up less often.
    So, on the one hand you discount the significance of the BBC story, and then turn around and think you found a basis for your decision on a website produced by the very people making the BBC story.

    You tell me who's the lunatic here.
    It's definitely you. You want to make a epoch-making mountain out of a bigger than usual step along a drunkard's walk.

    We all know that your scale and movement blind, so that kind of non-reaction is to be expected. You're not enough of a climatologist to appreciate the significance of their measurement numbers.



    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to All on Tue Sep 19 07:04:58 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:38:12 PM UTC+10, sci.electronics.design wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 9:30:59 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:15:54 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 2:03:39 AM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO
    followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    For that you should be ashamed and quite possibly locked up as potential terrorists. You seek to terrorize people, what else can we call you? You are no better than 10-10 blowing up skeptics who questioned the religion of Global Warming.

    <snip>

    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

    You're missing information in the original BBC article, which is:

    "It's so far outside anything we've seen, it's almost mind-blowing," says Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

    That's not "information". It's just a verbal flourish.

    That's the same snow and ice center collecting the data for the NOAA page you linked. You might notice the anomaly for 2013 extent is -0.13% which is in stark contrast to typical yearly's of about -0.02 %.

    It's not in "stark contrast". It's just bigger. Bad years for ice cover are worse than regular years, and they show up less often.

    So, on the one hand you discount the significance of the BBC story, and then turn around and think you found a basis for your decision on a website produced by the very people making the BBC story.

    You tell me who's the lunatic here.

    It's definitely you. You want to make a epoch-making mountain out of a bigger than usual step along a drunkard's walk.

    We all know that your scale and movement blind, so that kind of non-reaction is to be expected. You're not enough of a climatologist to appreciate the significance of their measurement numbers.

    Presumably you meant to write "you are " or "you're scale and movement blind". That isn't a disability I've ever heard of, and I probably wouldn't be a member of the IEEE Instrumentation and Measurement chapter if I suffered from that kind of defect.
    Experimental scientists do appreciate measurement numbers. Semi-literate anonymous trolls exploit them as items to be rude about.

    As Flyguy illustrates, mindless incomprehension is perfectly compatible with mindless abuse.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney


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  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to All on Tue Sep 19 08:41:16 2023
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 23:03:28 -0700, John Robertson <jrr@flippers.com>
    wrote:

    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the
    Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO >followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you
    weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    But, but, but, antarctic glaciers are sliding into the ocean and
    PIECES ARE BREAKING OFF! We're doomed.

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  • From Fred Bloggs@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Tue Sep 19 14:20:03 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:41:41 AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 23:03:28 -0700, John Robertson <j...@flippers.com> wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the >Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO >followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you >weren't frightening the children of the planet.
    But, but, but, antarctic glaciers are sliding into the ocean and
    PIECES ARE BREAKING OFF! We're doomed.

    I think it's the Greenland glaciers doing the sliding. The ones in Antarctica float away.

    Apparently the Bay area thinks it's serious enough to start planning now for some kind of $100B seawall.

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  • From Fred Bloggs@21:1/5 to Anthony William Sloman on Tue Sep 19 14:29:01 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 10:05:03 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:38:12 PM UTC+10, sci.electronics.design wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 9:30:59 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:15:54 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 2:03:39 AM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the
    Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO
    followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    For that you should be ashamed and quite possibly locked up as potential terrorists. You seek to terrorize people, what else can we call you? You are no better than 10-10 blowing up skeptics who questioned the religion of Global Warming.
    <snip>
    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

    You're missing information in the original BBC article, which is:

    "It's so far outside anything we've seen, it's almost mind-blowing," says Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

    That's not "information". It's just a verbal flourish.

    That's the same snow and ice center collecting the data for the NOAA page you linked. You might notice the anomaly for 2013 extent is -0.13% which is in stark contrast to typical yearly's of about -0.02 %.

    It's not in "stark contrast". It's just bigger. Bad years for ice cover are worse than regular years, and they show up less often.

    So, on the one hand you discount the significance of the BBC story, and then turn around and think you found a basis for your decision on a website produced by the very people making the BBC story.

    You tell me who's the lunatic here.

    It's definitely you. You want to make a epoch-making mountain out of a bigger than usual step along a drunkard's walk.

    We all know that your scale and movement blind, so that kind of non-reaction is to be expected. You're not enough of a climatologist to appreciate the significance of their measurement numbers.
    Presumably you meant to write "you are " or "you're scale and movement blind". That isn't a disability I've ever heard of, and I probably wouldn't be a member of the IEEE Instrumentation and Measurement chapter if I suffered from that kind of defect.
    Experimental scientists do appreciate measurement numbers. Semi-literate anonymous trolls exploit them as items to be rude about.

    You illustrate perfectly the results of the recent study I linked to that concluded overconfidence increases exponentially with intermediate but less than comprehensive levels of knowledge.

    That idiotic statement about 'one year low' is a case in point. You're too illiterate to understand that a deviation that great arises from such an absurdly small probability of random occurrence that it cannot be interpreted as such. Then you seem
    oblivious to the well-publicized fact that the majority of climate research is dedicated to discerning tends.

    You're pretty good at breezing through Chapter 0, but are hopelessly too underpowered to complete the rest of the treatise.




    As Flyguy illustrates, mindless incomprehension is perfectly compatible with mindless abuse.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

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  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com on Tue Sep 19 18:15:56 2023
    On Tue, 19 Sep 2023 14:20:03 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:41:41?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 23:03:28 -0700, John Robertson <j...@flippers.com>
    wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the
    Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO
    followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8 >> >
    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you
    weren't frightening the children of the planet.
    But, but, but, antarctic glaciers are sliding into the ocean and
    PIECES ARE BREAKING OFF! We're doomed.

    I think it's the Greenland glaciers doing the sliding. The ones in Antarctica float away.

    Apparently the Bay area thinks it's serious enough to start planning now for some kind of $100B seawall.

    Yeah, sea level here is rising 2 mm per year. We don't have much time
    left. We'll all doomed to drown.

    The ocean will be sloshing around my kitchen in... calculates
    furiously... just 50,000 years!

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  • From whit3rd@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Tue Sep 19 20:14:20 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 6:16:18 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
    On Tue, 19 Sep 2023 14:20:03 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs

    Apparently the Bay area thinks it's serious enough to start planning now for some kind of $100B seawall.
    Yeah, sea level here is rising 2 mm per year. We don't have much time
    left. We'll all doomed to drown.

    New conditions (climate change, global warming, CO2 pollution) apply, invalidating your linear extrapolation. Everyone else has known this for decades.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Tue Sep 19 20:45:51 2023
    On Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 1:41:41 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 23:03:28 -0700, John Robertson <j...@flippers.com> wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the >Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO >followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you >weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    But, but, but, antarctic glaciers are sliding into the ocean and PIECES ARE BREAKING OFF! We're doomed.

    Ice sheets have glaciers, and glaciers feed ice-bergs into the sea. It has been happening for at least the last 2.6 million years, and we aren't dead yet.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

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  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to Fred Bloggs on Tue Sep 19 20:51:48 2023
    On Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 7:20:09 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:41:41 AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
    On Mon, 18 Sep 2023 23:03:28 -0700, John Robertson <j...@flippers.com> wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.

    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the >Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO >followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you >weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    But, but, but, antarctic glaciers are sliding into the ocean and
    PIECES ARE BREAKING OFF! We're doomed.

    I think it's the Greenland glaciers doing the sliding. The ones in Antarctica float away.

    All glaciers slide, and the GRACE satellites show that both Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice.

    Apparently the Bay area thinks it's serious enough to start planning now for some kind of $100B seawall.

    James Hansen does think that the glaciers involved will start to slide faster - much the same sort of thing happened (with different ice sheets, now gone) at the end of the the most recent ice age.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

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  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to Fred Bloggs on Tue Sep 19 21:05:22 2023
    On Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 7:29:06 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 10:05:03 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:38:12 PM UTC+10, sci.electronics.design wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 9:30:59 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:15:54 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 2:03:39 AM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:

    <snip>

    You tell me who's the lunatic here.

    It's definitely you. You want to make a epoch-making mountain out of a bigger than usual step along a drunkard's walk.

    We all know that your scale and movement blind, so that kind of non-reaction is to be expected. You're not enough of a climatologist to appreciate the significance of their measurement numbers.

    Presumably you meant to write "you are " or "you're scale and movement blind". That isn't a disability I've ever heard of, and I probably wouldn't be a member of the IEEE Instrumentation and Measurement chapter if I suffered from that kind of defect.
    Experimental scientists do appreciate measurement numbers. Semi-literate anonymous trolls exploit them as items to be rude about.

    You illustrate perfectly the results of the recent study I linked to that concluded overconfidence increases exponentially with intermediate but less than comprehensive levels of knowledge.

    That's exactly the kind of over-confident assertion you get from people like you, whose reach exceeds their grasp.

    That idiotic statement about 'one year low' is a case in point. You're too illiterate to understand that a deviation that great arises from such an absurdly small probability of random occurrence that it cannot be interpreted as such. Then you seem
    oblivious to the well-publicized fact that the majority of climate research is dedicated to discerning tends.

    You haven't posted the frequency distribution that you'd need to back up that claim. Neither did the original paper. Picking trends out of noisy data is difficult.

    You're pretty good at breezing through Chapter 0, but are hopelessly too underpowered to complete the rest of the treatise.

    A chunk of my Ph.D. work was extracting reaction rate data from my observations. I ended up writing my own non-linear multi-parameter least squares curve-fitting program to pull out the reaction rate as well as the starting and equilibrium concentrations
    of my reactant (with objective, if low, error estimates). The treatise got me my Ph.D, and you could read it in the Melbourne University library. if you could notch your reading competence up a bit.

    As Flyguy illustrates, mindless incomprehension is perfectly compatible with mindless abuse.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

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  • From John Larkin@21:1/5 to All on Tue Sep 19 21:14:05 2023
    On Tue, 19 Sep 2023 20:14:20 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
    wrote:

    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 6:16:18?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
    On Tue, 19 Sep 2023 14:20:03 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs

    Apparently the Bay area thinks it's serious enough to start planning now for some kind of $100B seawall.
    Yeah, sea level here is rising 2 mm per year. We don't have much time
    left. We'll all doomed to drown.

    New conditions (climate change, global warming, CO2 pollution) apply, >invalidating your linear extrapolation. Everyone else has known this for decades.


    https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1999/fs175-99/images/events.jpg

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  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Larkin on Tue Sep 19 21:27:35 2023
    On Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 2:14:27 PM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
    On Tue, 19 Sep 2023 20:14:20 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com>
    wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 6:16:18?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
    On Tue, 19 Sep 2023 14:20:03 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs

    Apparently the Bay area thinks it's serious enough to start planning now for some kind of $100B seawall.
    Yeah, sea level here is rising 2 mm per year. We don't have much time
    left. We'll all doomed to drown.

    New conditions (climate change, global warming, CO2 pollution) apply, >invalidating your linear extrapolation. Everyone else has known this for decades.

    https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1999/fs175-99/images/events.jpg

    And John Larkin responds with linear fit to the data from 1900 to 1999. He really didn't get the message.

    Previous performance is no guarantee of future performance ...

    Better-informed observers - James Hansen comes to mind - are less optimistic. This is from 2016, but it is still relevant.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/mar/22/sea-level-rise-james-hansen-climate-change-scientist

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From John Robertson@21:1/5 to All on Tue Sep 19 22:38:12 2023
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    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to John Robertson on Tue Sep 19 23:16:00 2023
    On Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 3:38:23 PM UTC+10, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/19 12:11 a.m., Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 4:03:39 PM UTC+10, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the
    Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO >> followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    Fred does over-interpret the climate scientific warnings.

    They aren't frightening the greedy children of the planet anything like enough. The ones that have been making a lot of money out of digging up fossil carbon and selling it to be burnt as fuel are spending some of the money they make on lying
    propaganda that is pretty lame, but got enough to miusdlead gullible twits like you aren John Larkin.

    Not frightening them enough? When quite a few are refusing to have children because the world is doomed?

    That's people who suffer from chronic anxiety. That a rare but heritable defect, and they probably shouldn't have children anyway.

    What else are they not doing? Like looking for alternatives for problems as they occur? Humans have solved the problem of climate changes since we came out of the trees. These days, with vastly more energy and communication resources at our
    disposal, we can handle the future well enough - as long as the fear mongers don't get everyone hiding in their basements says "We're all doomed!"

    We certainly aren't doomed, but we do depend on a agricultural system carefully optimised for our current climate for our food. Change the climate enough and quite a few people are going to starve to death, Natural variation was enough to do that in the
    fairly recent past, and anthropogenic global warming promises more dramatic changes than we've seen since we took up farming.

    Its been said before - "We having nothing to fear but fear itself."

    Winston Churchill was lying at the time.

    For that you should be ashamed and quite possibly locked up as potential terrorists.

    The climate change denial propaganda crew should be locked up for simple fraud - they are lying in the hope of getting away with make money out of anti-social activities for a few years longer.

    I agree I should not have gotten personal in my response to the previous poster - that was churlish of me, and for that I apologize.

    I consider myself a CO2 skeptic, based on the absorption coefficient of carbon dioxide. I need to study the math more, but treating CO2 as if it was the glass of a greenhouse seems a bit odd, glass reflects IR, CO2 refracts it and is pretty much
    saturated for those IR wavelengths - and the large IR atmospheric Window is outside of the absorption band of CO2. A one dimensional model this paper claims - how is that transferable to our 4D world (Time being the 4th)? Sounds like the tale of
    Flatland to me.

    You do need to dig a bit deeper. Even the simplest exposition does make the point that the "greenhouse gas" analogy is misleading, and there's lots more more elaborate modeling available, and satellite based measurements of the temperature gradient up
    through the atmosphere that match the modelling.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328129326_Absorption_coefficient_of_carbon_dioxide_across_atmospheric_troposphere_layer

    It's Chinese me-too work.

    https://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm

    is a decidedly more voluminous but it gets you further, it you persist (which takes a while).

    Denier sounds like the folks (fools) who don't want vaccinations, refute the Holocaust, and don't think the previous (2016-2020) president of the US is anything other than a con artist.

    Fight incorrect data with facts, and leave the rest to the noisy ones.

    "No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong." If the climate scientists post their raw data to let folks check, I have no argument with them, just possibly their data.

    You really haven't got a clue how much data is being collected today, or how careful the analysis has to be

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/may/11/more-errors-identified-in-contrarian-climate-scientists-temperature-estimates

    describes a well-known scandal - Christy and Spencer as are born again-Christians with an irrational aversion to global warming, and were slow to correct minor errors in their data analysis.

    I prefer Karl Popper's requirements of falsifiability to make a rebuttable theory. 'Prove me wrong (or right), here is my data.' which implies an adult attitude - of 'I can make mistakes, let us learn from
    them by working together...'

    Sadly, you don't know enough about the data to get to first base. Polyanyi's "Personal Knowledge"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tacit_knowledge

    makes the point that you have to know a lot of background data to make proper use of the data you can see but can't actually understand. If you don't know what you don't understand you can go sadly astray, as you seem to be doing here.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Flyguy@21:1/5 to Anthony William Sloman on Wed Sep 20 12:26:44 2023
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 7:05:03 AM UTC-7, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:38:12 PM UTC+10, sci.electronics.design wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 9:30:59 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:15:54 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 2:03:39 AM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the
    Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO
    followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    For that you should be ashamed and quite possibly locked up as potential terrorists. You seek to terrorize people, what else can we call you? You are no better than 10-10 blowing up skeptics who questioned the religion of Global Warming.
    <snip>
    The measured loss is already a full standard deviation removed from the most recent record. That's not a 'variation', it's a driven event.

    ""Are we awakening this giant of Antarctica?" asks Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. It would be "an absolute disaster for the world," he says.

    There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica's ice sheets is in the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted, says Prof Anna Hogg, an Earth scientist at the University of Leeds."

    "As more sea-ice disappears, it exposes dark areas of ocean, which absorb sunlight instead of reflecting it, meaning that the heat energy is added into the water, which in turn melts more ice. Scientists call this the ice-albedo effect.

    That could add a lot more heat to the planet, disrupting Antarctica's usual role as a regulator of global temperatures."

    ...which means once critical mass is melted, it's gone for good, and won't be coming back.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

    You're missing information in the original BBC article, which is:

    "It's so far outside anything we've seen, it's almost mind-blowing," says Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

    That's not "information". It's just a verbal flourish.

    That's the same snow and ice center collecting the data for the NOAA page you linked. You might notice the anomaly for 2013 extent is -0.13% which is in stark contrast to typical yearly's of about -0.02 %.

    It's not in "stark contrast". It's just bigger. Bad years for ice cover are worse than regular years, and they show up less often.

    So, on the one hand you discount the significance of the BBC story, and then turn around and think you found a basis for your decision on a website produced by the very people making the BBC story.

    You tell me who's the lunatic here.

    It's definitely you. You want to make a epoch-making mountain out of a bigger than usual step along a drunkard's walk.

    We all know that your scale and movement blind, so that kind of non-reaction is to be expected. You're not enough of a climatologist to appreciate the significance of their measurement numbers.
    Presumably you meant to write "you are " or "you're scale and movement blind". That isn't a disability I've ever heard of, and I probably wouldn't be a member of the IEEE Instrumentation and Measurement chapter if I suffered from that kind of defect.
    Experimental scientists do appreciate measurement numbers. Semi-literate anonymous trolls exploit them as items to be rude about.

    As Flyguy illustrates, mindless incomprehension is perfectly compatible with mindless abuse.

    "mindless incomprehension" sure describes someone who thinks that NUKING and FIREBOMBING their OWN COUNTRY is a good idea.

    --
    Bozo Bill Slowman, Sydney

    Bozo's Sewage Sweeper

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Fred Bloggs@21:1/5 to Anthony William Sloman on Wed Sep 20 18:00:40 2023
    On Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 12:05:27 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 7:29:06 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 10:05:03 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:38:12 PM UTC+10, sci.electronics.design wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 9:30:59 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:15:54 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 2:03:39 AM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    <snip>
    You tell me who's the lunatic here.

    It's definitely you. You want to make a epoch-making mountain out of a bigger than usual step along a drunkard's walk.

    We all know that your scale and movement blind, so that kind of non-reaction is to be expected. You're not enough of a climatologist to appreciate the significance of their measurement numbers.

    Presumably you meant to write "you are " or "you're scale and movement blind". That isn't a disability I've ever heard of, and I probably wouldn't be a member of the IEEE Instrumentation and Measurement chapter if I suffered from that kind of
    defect. Experimental scientists do appreciate measurement numbers. Semi-literate anonymous trolls exploit them as items to be rude about.

    You illustrate perfectly the results of the recent study I linked to that concluded overconfidence increases exponentially with intermediate but less than comprehensive levels of knowledge.
    That's exactly the kind of over-confident assertion you get from people like you, whose reach exceeds their grasp.

    You mean the kind of assertion made by someone who knows how to use a step-stool to extend their reach as opposed to your Pleistocene self who can't figure that out.

    That idiotic statement about 'one year low' is a case in point. You're too illiterate to understand that a deviation that great arises from such an absurdly small probability of random occurrence that it cannot be interpreted as such. Then you seem
    oblivious to the well-publicized fact that the majority of climate research is dedicated to discerning tends.
    You haven't posted the frequency distribution that you'd need to back up that claim. Neither did the original paper. Picking trends out of noisy data is difficult.

    The frequency distribution over multiple decades is displayed graphically on the NOAA ice snow and ice data center page. The fluctuation is not ergodic, the relevant statistic is the amplitude distributions seen at specific times of the year. If you had
    developed a working knowledge of statistics, you can visually 'see' the point distributions have almost all the measurements clustered within 0.02 % deviations about the mean- that would be mean for any specific date. This makes a 0.13% deviation quite
    large as in 6-sigma large.

    You're pretty good at breezing through Chapter 0, but are hopelessly too underpowered to complete the rest of the treatise.
    A chunk of my Ph.D. work was extracting reaction rate data from my observations. I ended up writing my own non-linear multi-parameter least squares curve-fitting program to pull out the reaction rate as well as the starting and equilibrium
    concentrations of my reactant (with objective, if low, error estimates). The treatise got me my Ph.D, and you could read it in the Melbourne University library. if you could notch your reading competence up a bit.

    Gauss invented least squares estimation for least error estimation of planetary orbits. Tell us what planetary orbits have to do with reaction rates.


    As Flyguy illustrates, mindless incomprehension is perfectly compatible with mindless abuse.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Fred Bloggs@21:1/5 to John Robertson on Wed Sep 20 18:15:21 2023
    On Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 1:38:23 AM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/19 12:11 a.m., Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 4:03:39 PM UTC+10, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    Loss of sea ice on this scale means complete loss of climate fluctuation moderation, climatic chaos, and a terminal extinction event for mankind.
    If you bothered to go the source - like NOAA - you would see that the
    Decadal Trend for the Southern Hemisphere sea ice is 0.00%. That is ZERO >> followed by a couple more zeros. 0.00 million km2.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/S/8

    You people would be hilarious in your fear mongering blather if you weren't frightening the children of the planet.

    Fred does over-interpret the climate scientific warnings.

    They aren't frightening the greedy children of the planet anything like enough. The ones that have been making a lot of money out of digging up fossil carbon and selling it to be burnt as fuel are spending some of the money they make on lying
    propaganda that is pretty lame, but got enough to miusdlead gullible twits like you aren John Larkin.

    Not frightening them enough? When quite a few are refusing to have
    children because the world is doomed? What else are they not doing? Like looking for alternatives for problems as they occur? Humans have solved
    the problem of climate changes since we came out of the trees. These
    days, with vastly more energy and communication resources at our
    disposal, we can handle the future well enough - as long as the fear
    mongers don't get everyone hiding in their basements says "We're all doomed!"

    Its been said before - "We having nothing to fear but fear itself."

    For that you should be ashamed and quite possibly locked up as potential terrorists.

    The climate change denial propaganda crew should be locked up for simple fraud - they are lying in the hope of getting away with make money out of anti-social activities for a few years longer.

    I agree I should not have gotten personal in my response to the previous poster - that was churlish of me, and for that I apologize.

    I consider myself a CO2 skeptic, based on the absorption coefficient of carbon dioxide. I need to study the math more, but treating CO2 as if it
    was the glass of a greenhouse seems a bit odd, glass reflects IR, CO2 refracts it and is pretty much saturated for those IR wavelengths - and
    the large IR Atmospheric Window is outside of the absorption band of
    CO2. A one dimensional model this paper claims - how is that
    transferable to our 4D world (Time being the 4th)? Sounds like the tale
    of Flatland to me.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328129326_Absorption_coefficient_of_carbon_dioxide_across_atmospheric_troposphere_layer

    Denier sounds like the folks (fools) who don't want vaccinations, refute
    the Holocaust, and don't think the previous (2016-2020) president of the
    US is anything other than a con artist.

    Fight incorrect data with facts, and leave the rest to the noisy ones.

    "No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single
    experiment can prove me wrong." If the climate scientists post their raw data to let folks check, I have no argument with them, just possibly
    their data.

    I prefer Karl Popper's requirements of falsifiability to make a
    rebuttable theory. 'Prove me wrong (or right), here is my data.' which implies anadult attitude - of 'I can make mistakes, let us learn from
    them by working together...'

    You're wasting your time. First world political leadership may not be the best but the fact is they're not giving the time of day to unqualified and uneducated constituency. The only reason they haven't gone completely overboard is because of massive
    political contributions made by fossil fuel cronies and industry investors, but even that is rapidly changing as they see political instability emerging.



    <snip>

    John :-#)#

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  • From ootiib@hot.ee@21:1/5 to Fred Bloggs on Wed Sep 20 22:54:55 2023
    On Thursday, 21 September 2023 at 04:00:45 UTC+3, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 12:05:27 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    A chunk of my Ph.D. work was extracting reaction rate data from my observations. I ended up writing my own non-linear multi-parameter least squares curve-fitting program to pull out the reaction rate as well as the starting and equilibrium
    concentrations of my reactant (with objective, if low, error estimates). The treatise got me my Ph.D, and you could read it in the Melbourne University library. if you could notch your reading competence up a bit.

    Gauss invented least squares estimation for least error estimation of planetary orbits. Tell us what planetary orbits have to do with reaction rates.

    Adrien-Marie Legendre. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adrien-Marie_Legendre> Mathematical methods tend to have rather broad application. Must be not surprising. 2+2 is 4 regardless if you count planets, molecules or dry summers.

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  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to Flyguy on Wed Sep 20 23:03:39 2023
    On Thursday, September 21, 2023 at 5:26:50 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 7:05:03 AM UTC-7, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:38:12 PM UTC+10, sci.electronics.design wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 9:30:59 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:15:54 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 2:03:39 AM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:

    <snip>

    As Flyguy illustrates, mindless incomprehension is perfectly compatible with mindless abuse.

    "mindless incomprehension" sure describes someone who thinks that NUKING and FIREBOMBING their OWN COUNTRY is a good idea.

    Sewage Sweeper's mindless incomprehension is what lets him mis-characterise a couple of my posts that didn't didn't propose anything like that.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

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  • From Anthony William Sloman@21:1/5 to Fred Bloggs on Wed Sep 20 23:22:46 2023
    On Thursday, September 21, 2023 at 11:00:45 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 12:05:27 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 7:29:06 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 10:05:03 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:38:12 PM UTC+10, sci.electronics.design wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 9:30:59 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 11:15:54 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 2:03:39 AM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:
    On 2023/09/17 5:19 a.m., Fred Bloggs wrote:
    <snip>
    You tell me who's the lunatic here.

    It's definitely you. You want to make a epoch-making mountain out of a bigger than usual step along a drunkard's walk.

    We all know that your scale and movement blind, so that kind of non-reaction is to be expected. You're not enough of a climatologist to appreciate the significance of their measurement numbers.

    Presumably you meant to write "you are " or "you're scale and movement blind". That isn't a disability I've ever heard of, and I probably wouldn't be a member of the IEEE Instrumentation and Measurement chapter if I suffered from that kind of
    defect. Experimental scientists do appreciate measurement numbers. Semi-literate anonymous trolls exploit them as items to be rude about.

    You illustrate perfectly the results of the recent study I linked to that concluded overconfidence increases exponentially with intermediate but less than comprehensive levels of knowledge.

    That's exactly the kind of over-confident assertion you get from people like you, whose reach exceeds their grasp.

    You mean the kind of assertion made by someone who knows how to use a step-stool to extend their reach as opposed to your Pleistocene self who can't figure that out.

    The human species did evolve in that era. Are you claiming to be a throwback to an even more primitive era, as opposed being a geriatric in an early stage of senile dementia?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pleistocene#:~:text=The%20Pleistocene%20(%2F%CB%88pl,recent%20period%20of%20repeated%20glaciations.

    That idiotic statement about 'one year low' is a case in point. You're too illiterate to understand that a deviation that great arises from such an absurdly small probability of random occurrence that it cannot be interpreted as such. Then you seem
    oblivious to the well-publicized fact that the majority of climate research is dedicated to discerning tends.

    You haven't posted the frequency distribution that you'd need to back up that claim. Neither did the original paper. Picking trends out of noisy data is difficult.

    The frequency distribution over multiple decades is displayed graphically on the NOAA ice snow and ice data center page. The fluctuation is not ergodic, the relevant statistic is the amplitude distributions seen at specific times of the year. If you
    had developed a working knowledge of statistics, you can visually 'see' the point distributions have almost all the measurements clustered within 0.02 % deviations about the mean- that would be mean for any specific date. This makes a 0.13% deviation
    quite large as in 6-sigma large.

    But climate change means that this is now a biased random walk. Anthropogenic global warming means that the peak is moving towards less ice, and that moves the wings of the distribution too.

    You're pretty good at breezing through Chapter 0, but are hopelessly too underpowered to complete the rest of the treatise.

    A chunk of my Ph.D. work was extracting reaction rate data from my observations. I ended up writing my own non-linear multi-parameter least squares curve-fitting program to pull out the reaction rate as well as the starting and equilibrium
    concentrations of my reactant (with objective, if low, error estimates). The treatise got me my Ph.D, and you could read it in the Melbourne University library. if you could notch your reading competence up a bit.

    Gauss invented least squares estimation for least error estimation of planetary orbits. Tell us what planetary orbits have to do with reaction rates.

    Silly question. Gauss was working with noisy data. So was I. We were both - in fact - working with pretty high quality data, but it was still imperfect enough to mean that we had to cope with the imperfections. Oddly enough I had to integrate my
    mathematical model - which was a differential equation - to get the modelled sequence of concentrations that I was matching to my experimental data, and I used Gaussian numerical integration for that.

    As Flyguy illustrates, mindless incomprehension is perfectly compatible with mindless abuse.

    --
    Bill Sloman, Sydney

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