On 03/11/2021 07:23, StarDust wrote:
On Wednesday, November 3, 2021 at 12:17:25 AM UTC-7, kellehe...@gmail.com wrote:
I know my base body temperature is 37°C so if goes up by a number of degrees then dire consequences occur.
What is the base temperature of the Earth by which the 1.5° C rise has dire consequences?.
It is fascinating in a perverse way that a definite 1.5°C limit is presented without having it relative to anything other than a date, in this case the 'pre-industrial era' in order to bury humanity in guilt. It is a masterstroke as a swindle if that
is your thing, but then again, some people may actually care about weather and climate as genuine research topics with no political/social baggage attached.
It is not the first time I have seen this type of swindle*, but much prefer nowadays to enjoy climate as it actually exists. Rather than engage to correct matters, contributors to this forum ran away apart from the few unrepentants who still lean on
old familiar doctrines even while things are changing around them.
* "At the time of the dinosaurs, Earth completed one rotation in about 23 hours," says MacMillan, who is a member of the VLBI team at NASA Goddard. "In the year 1820, a rotation took exactly 24 hours, or 86,400 standard seconds. Since 1820, the mean
solar day has increased by about 2.5 milliseconds. " NASA
Another 1.5 C deg temp rise means - No return!
It doesn't mean that at all. It means sufficient glacier meltwater and expansion in the oceans to make large areas of highly populated global
capital cities and river deltas around the world uninhabitable. Massive disruption to our civilisation and a lot of problems with super storms.
A few small islands will go first and the Florida keys.
I'm not convinced the exact number is known but I'd be very surprised if
it was higher than 5 C. We are likely to maybe achieve 3 C with our so
called efforts to meet the 1.5 C target. It might be enough. The next generation will pay dearly for our mistakes and prevarication.
GW, can't be stopped anymore!
Actually it is rather difficult to get the Earth into thermal runaway by
adding CO2. I got the chance to try once with one of the earlier climate
models and injected more than enough CO2 into the atmosphere to kill all
animal life on Earth but I couldn't quite boil the seas at the Equator according to the model (which I took well out of its legitimate range).
You could do it with enough SF6 (a proposal for terraforming Mars).
A rough heuristic at least for modest changes of CO2 from the present
level is that doubling atmospheric CO2 concentration adds about 3K to
the Earth's global average temperature and a fair amount to sea level.
The worry is that if we push it too far it will snap into another
metastable state around a new set of conditions and it will take an
enormous effort to bring it back again to the familiar conditions we
have today. There are multiple stable attractors in the climate system
each with a barrier and some hysteresis between them.
We presently get peak worst case temperatures around 60C so that there
are roughly at least 10 doublings before we reach the danger level for
CO2 induced thermal runaway. 400ppm -> 40%.
However, getting parts of the planet above about 70C will kill most
living things out in the open and that is only 3 or 4 doublings away in
the equatorial region. 400ppm -> ~0.4%. Most enzymes denature at around
60C - except for extremophiles which will inherit the Earth.
I don't see much political will to improve. The climate change policy is
just so much hot air with vested interests clamouring to be allowed to
continue business as usual. I don't see that changing any time soon.
--
Regards,
Martin Brown
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