On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 1:39:03 PM UTC-4, Tommy wrote:
Personally, I know that it has cost me over $100k, ..
YMMV. I’m up much more than that; roughly +10% higher.
Maybe you need a better financial advisor?
…but the big picture shows a
broad negative impact on the population as a whole: https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/shed.htm#:~:text=The%20survey%20of%20more%20than%2011%2C000%20adults%20was,and%20investments%2C%20and%20higher%20education%20and%20student%20loans.
Particularly hard hit are low-income families faced with large increases in rents,
food, and energy prices. And there is no hope going forward other than throwing
Lyin' Biden and the rest of Woke Dim crowd out of office.
Fortunately, the survey was done ten (10) months ago, in Oct 2022, and there’s been
significant change since then. For example, the DJIA has gone from 30K to 35K (+16%).
As Noahpinion wrote this week:
“… I know lots of Americans still think the economy is doing poorly, and are upset
about that. But when I look at objective measures, I just can’t rationalize that negative
viewpoint. Because as far as I can tell from the actual numbers, this economy is doing
really, really well.
Why the economy is doing really, really well
What do we want from the macroeconomy?
We want employment to be high, meaning that as many people as possible who want jobs can get them.
We want inflation to be low, so that people have certainty about how far their paycheck and their savings will go in the future.
We want real incomes to rise, meaning that we’re able to consume more than we
could in the past, or save more if we want to.”
Continuing, he assesses each. Let us know where he’s wrong:
“ And when we look at the objective numbers, they are great. First of all, there’s the
employment situation. Some indicators of employment, like labor-force participation,
look bad because we’re in the middle of the great Baby Boom retirement. That’s why
you generally shouldn’t use measures of the labor force that don’t adjust for age!
When we do adjust for age, we find that the U.S. job market is now the best that it’s
been in recorded history.”
“Next up we have inflation. This has, of course, been the big problem since the start
of 2021. But now inflation is plunging; if it’s not back to its target, it’s headed there
very rapidly. In month-to-month terms, PCE inflation (which the Fed likes better than
the more commonly used CPI) is now below the 2% target.
Slower-moving measures are all headed downward. Broader measures are falling rapidly
as well. And when you include the rents that people are paying on new leases instead of
rents for leases signed long ago, inflation looks even lower. Meanwhile, market inflation
expectations, measured by the 5-year breakeven, increasingly look like they’ve been completely
tamed, which means people think the Fed has inflation under control in the long term…”
“ And in case you’re wondering whether most of that income growth is flowing to the rich,
well, let’s take a look at wage growth. Real wages fell during 2021 and the first half of 2022,
but when inflation came down, they started rising again. Now, labor economist Arin Dube
reckons that wages for production and supervisory workers — i.e., regular workers — are all
the way back to their pre-Covid trend line…. And when Dube adjusts for aging, he finds that
the wage picture looks even better…”
More for subscribers.
-hh
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