Assuming this works the same way it has in the past few years, here's what happens on Sunday (all times Eastern):

12:25 or so - ESPN will announce the playoff semi-final matchups

2:45 or so - ESPN will announce the other four CFP bowls, along with the full CFP rankings

The rest of the afternoon/evening - most, if not all, of the other 35 bowls will be announced, usually by the bowl organizers and/or the teams invited on Twitter.

You'll know its over when (assuming any two of (a) Akron beats Buffalo on Friday, (b) New Mexico State doesn't get an NCAA bowl waiver, and (c) UNLV decides that, in part because of its coaching change, it is declining a bowl bid) Michigan State gets the
last spot and J. Hugh Sullivan leads the chorus of "WHERE'S AUBURN?"

As for the rankings:

NOTBCS
Georgia, 0
Michigan, 1.01
TCU, 2.2
Ohio State, 3.67
USC, 4.21
Alabama, 4.87
Tennessee, 5.76
Penn State, 6.71
Kansas State, 10.17
Washington, 10.46
Clemson, 10.47
LSU, 11.54
Utah, 11.59
Oregon, 13.39
Florida State, 13.55
Oregon State, 15.12
Tulane, 16.87
UCLA, 16.94
Texas, 16.95
Notre Dame, 19.3
South Carolina, 20.58
Mississippi State, 21.72
Texas-San Antonio, 22.98
Central Florida, 23.14
North Carolina, 23.19
Mississippi, 23.19
Troy, 23.42
Illinois, 23.98
North Carolina State, 24.15
Cincinnati, 24.31
Minnesota, 24.37
Boise State, 24.38
Purdue, 24.52
Baylor, 24.55
Oklahoma, 24.58
South Alabama, 24.6
Texas Tech, 24.62
Coastal Carolina, 24.64
Pittsburgh, 24.64
Louisville, 24.69
Florida, 24.76
Kentucky, 24.78
Air Force, 24.78
Iowa, 24.78
Arkansas, 24.8
Ohio, 24.81
Fresno State, 24.84
James Madison, 24.84
Duke, 24.84
Oklahoma State, 24.85
Wisconsin, 24.87
all others, 24.88


NOTCFP
#1: Georgia
#2: Michigan
#3: TCU
#4: Ohio State
#5: Tennessee
#6: Alabama
#7: USC
#8: Penn State
#9: Kansas State
#10: Clemson
#11: Texas
#12: LSU
#13: Oregon
#14: Utah
#15: Washington
#16: Florida State
#17: Oregon State
#18: Mississippi State
#19: Tulane
#20: UCLA
#21: Notre Dame
#22: Mississippi
#23: South Carolina
#24: Illinois
#25: Texas Tech

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Assuming TCU and USC both win this weekend, here's how the CFP bowls "should" end up:

Peach - Georgia vs USC
Fiesta - Michigan vs TCU
Rose - Ohio State vs whichever of Utah or Washington the Rose Bowl Committee likes better
Sugar - Alabama vs Kansas State
Orange - Clemson vs Tennessee
Cotton - Penn State vs the Tulane/Central Florida winner

If Kansas State beats TCU and TCU ends up anywhere from #5 to #9 while Ohio State moves up to #4
Peach - Georgia vs Ohio State
Fiesta - Michigan vs USC
Rose - Penn State vs whichever of Utah or Washington the Rose Bowl Committee likes better
Sugar - Alabama vs Kansas State
Orange - Clemson vs Tennessee
Cotton - TCU vs the Tulane/Central Florida winner

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, November 30, 2022 at 3:04:14 PM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:

Assuming TCU and USC both win this weekend, here's how the CFP bowls "should" end up:

Peach - Georgia vs USC
Fiesta - Michigan vs TCU
Rose - Ohio State vs whichever of Utah or Washington the Rose Bowl Committee likes better
Sugar - Alabama vs Kansas State
Orange - Clemson vs Tennessee
Cotton - Penn State vs the Tulane/Central Florida winner

If Kansas State beats TCU and TCU ends up anywhere from #5 to #9 while Ohio State moves up to #4
Peach - Georgia vs Ohio State
Fiesta - Michigan vs USC
Rose - Penn State vs whichever of Utah or Washington the Rose Bowl Committee likes better
Sugar - Alabama vs Kansas State
Orange - Clemson vs Tennessee
Cotton - TCU vs the Tulane/Central Florida winner

The Big 12 ought to just cancel the game. Only bad things can happen to TCU, and Kansas State is going to the Sugar Bowl regardless. At least in other games that could thwart playoff teams, the underdog will get a much better bowl game if they pull off
the upset (well, maybe in Utah's case).

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 2022-11-30, The NOTBCS Guy <don.p.del.grande@gmail.com> wrote:

Assuming TCU and USC both win this weekend, here's how the CFP bowls "should" end up:

I note that everyone assumes Michigan is going to smoke Purdue. Any thoughts of what
would happen if they don't?

Peach - Georgia vs USC
Fiesta - Michigan vs TCU
Rose - Ohio State vs whichever of Utah or Washington the Rose Bowl Committee likes better
Sugar - Alabama vs Kansas State
Orange - Clemson vs Tennessee
Cotton - Penn State vs the Tulane/Central Florida winner

If Kansas State beats TCU and TCU ends up anywhere from #5 to #9 while Ohio State moves up to #4
Peach - Georgia vs Ohio State
Fiesta - Michigan vs USC
Rose - Penn State vs whichever of Utah or Washington the Rose Bowl Committee likes better
Sugar - Alabama vs Kansas State
Orange - Clemson vs Tennessee
Cotton - TCU vs the Tulane/Central Florida winner

--
Life is a long lesson in humility. -- James Barrie

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

I note that everyone assumes Michigan is going to smoke Purdue. Any thoughts of what
would happen if they don't?

Don't look at me; I didn't even try to guess what would happen if Michigan won while TCU and USC both lost. Does the committee put Alabama in at #4 - or, for that matter, come up with a feeble excuse to put Alabama at #3 ahead of Ohio State to prevent
conference matchups in both semi-finals ("yeah, well, Alabama, both road losses, both on the last plays of the game, Ohio State, major home loss, never mind why we didn't do it last week, just shut up")?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Assuming TCU and USC both win this weekend, here's how the CFP bowls "should" end up:

Peach - Georgia vs USC
Fiesta - Michigan vs TCU
Rose - Ohio State vs whichever of Utah or Washington the Rose Bowl Committee likes better
Sugar - Alabama vs Kansas State
Orange - Clemson vs Tennessee
Cotton - Penn State vs the Tulane/Central Florida winner

Crazy Story of the Day: there is a report out there that claims that Ohio State has asked the Rose Bowl to take Penn State if Michigan wins the Big 10 and is in the playoff. In the projection, this moves Ohio State to the Orange, and Tennessee to the
Cotton.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

You'll know its over when (assuming any two of (a) Akron beats Buffalo on Friday, (b) New Mexico State doesn't get an NCAA bowl waiver, and (c) UNLV decides that, in part because of its coaching change, it is declining a bowl bid) Michigan State gets

the last spot and J. Hugh Sullivan leads the chorus of "WHERE'S AUBURN?"

First of all, that's "it's over" - if you're a grammar cop to everybody else, you're one to yourself as well.

Second, New Mexico State got its bowl waiver, so it comes down to this:
If Buffalo beats Akron on Friday (and Buffalo is something like an 11-point favorite), the last two bowl spots go to Buffalo and Rice.
If Akron upsets Buffalo, they go to Rice and UNLV.
If any team declines, the next three teams in the order are Michigan State, Auburn, and Miami.

Reminder: once the bowls have all been awarded, if any team then has to withdraw, the APR order goes out the window; the bowl organizer can choose any team (I am not entirely sure if it would have to be a 5-win team) as a replacement.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/29/2022 7:09 PM, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:

J. Hugh Sullivan leads the chorus of "WHERE'S AUBURN?"

I sure miss him.

--
ÄLSKAR - Fänga Dagen

Слава Україні та НАТО

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Ken Olson <kolson@freedomnet.org> wrote:

On 11/29/2022 7:09 PM, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:

J. Hugh Sullivan leads the chorus of "WHERE'S AUBURN?"

I sure miss him.

He didn’t bother me and I enjoyed sparring with him. That said he was responsible for more people leaving this group than any other rfscker.

--
“I usually skip over your posts because of your disguistng, contrarian, liberal personality.” — Altie

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Assuming TCU and USC both win this weekend

Looks like I used up my predicting powers this season with that Missouri game...
Anyway, here are my projections:

If Michigan beats Purdue:
Peach - Georgia vs Ohio State
Fiesta - Michigan vs TCU (the committee will find an excuse to keep TCU #3 to avoid a Michigan-Ohio State rematch)
Rose - Utah vs Penn State
Sugar - Alabama vs Kansas State
Orange - Clemson/North Carolina winner vs Tennessee
Cotton - USC vs the Tulane/Central Florida winner

If Purdue beats Michigan:
Peach - Georgia vs Michigan
Fiesta - Ohio State vs TCU
Rose - Utah vs Purdue
other three stay the same

Other possibilities:
If, somehow, Alabama jumps over Ohio State into the #4 spot, Ohio State goes to the Orange, and Tennessee to the Cotton
If TCU drops to 5th, it goes to the Cotton
In either case, USC probably goes to the Alamo

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)