• Remaining NY6 and Citrus Projections

    From JGibson@21:1/5 to All on Sun Nov 27 19:14:45 2022
    Since the CFP games are Peach and Fiesta, which have no affiliations, we have to deal with a lot of affiliations this year.

    Rose: Pac-12 vs. Big Ten
    Sugar: SEC vs. Big 12
    Orange: ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten / Notre Dame
    Cotton: Group of 5 leader vs. One true at-large

    Assuming the CFP foursome is Georgia / Michigan / TCU / USC, I see the following:

    Rose: Ohio State is the obvious choice from the Big Ten. The Pac-12 did away with divisions, which leads to the USC vs. Utah championship game. But despite Utah getting the tiebreaker over them, seems like 2-loss Washington would be the Pac-12 choice
    here. Ohio State vs. Washington

    Sugar: Big 12 rep is automatically the second place team if 1st place team is in Sugar, so K-State gets that slot. SEC slot goes to highest ranked in CFP. Assuming the CFP rankings look similar to the AP and coaches' poll, that's Alabama. K-State vs.

    Orange: ACC rep is the winner between Clemson and North Carolina, since neither is going to the playoffs. What about the other team? Could get interesting here. Going by AP poll, it would be Tennessee. Going by coaches' poll, it would be Penn State.
    Tennessee has wins over LSU & Alabama that Penn State just does not have the quality of, so I have to think the CFP poll sticks with Tennessee over Penn State. Clemson vs. Tennessee

    Cotton: The G5 rep is going to come down to the American championship game between Tulane and UCF. The only other option would be UTSA, but I just don't see them finishing ahead of the Tulane/UCF winner. As for the other team? Both the AP and coaches'
    poll sent LSU down a bit after that loss to TAMU, and they probably lose to Georgia as well. Will the CFP knock them below Penn State? I think there are arguments for keeping LSU ahead of Penn State, but by the time LSU loses to Georgia, this slot now
    goes to Penn State. Penn State vs. Tulane

    Citrus: SEC vs. Big 10 after the NY6 is chosen. The jockeying above is going to affect this game. If Penn State really does finish ahead of LSU in the rankings, LSU drops to here and plays maybe Purdue if they keep Michigan close or maybe Illinois
    instead. On the other hand, if LSU grabs a NY6 spot and knocks Penn State to this game, seems like it would be Penn State vs. South Carolina. I guess I'll stick with LSU vs. Illinois

    And what if weird things happen (only examining one of them happening)?
    Purdue over Michigan? Then, Purdue takes Ohio State's spot in the Rose, Ohio State takes Tennessee's spot in the Orange, Tennessee takes Penn State's spot in the Cotton, and Penn State falls to the Citrus.

    LSU over Georgia? Then, LSU takes Alabama's spot in the Sugar, Alabama takes Tennessee's spot in the Orange, Tennessee takes Penn State's spot in the Cotton, and Penn State falls to the Citrus.

    Utah over USC? (which would not actually be weird). Utah replaces Washington in the Rose. And what of USC? Now, no longer in the playoffs, I'm guessing that they would take the Penn State spot in the Cotton.

    K-State over TCU? Actually probably wouldn't make a difference for K-State. They are not going to be in the playoffs either way. So, they get the Sugar slot either way? TCU? I actually think there'd be a pretty good argument to keep them in the
    playoff with a loss. If not, they can claim the spot in the Cotton. Note that the Pac-12 and the Big 12 cannot both have two NY6 teams that are not in the CFP because the Cotton has the only opening for either conference in that scenario.

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