On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 10:21:13 PM UTC-5, michael anderson wrote:
so with LSU losing tonight(they had controlled their own destiny, although beating Georgia was always going to be a longshot anyways) as well as clemson losing earlier, it's clear that only 5 teams are in contention for the playoffs: Georgia, Michigan,
TCU, USC, Ohio State.
It's tempting to say well what if Kansas State blows out TCU by 35 or so?(which is not out of the question, thats a very good matchup for Kstate)
The problem with that is I just don't see how you slot kstate above tcu even if that whoop them. That would just bring the season series between those teams to 1-1. Yes, perhaps the second more recent win is given more importance with it being more
recent and a conference title game, but so much importance to make it for 12-1 vs 11-2? I just don't see it....even if Kstate does whoop them and the feeling is that kstate is the superior team, I still don't see how they jump tcu.
So of the 5 still in contention, 2 obviously have locked up bids- Georgia and Michigan.
So TCU, USC, and Ohio State are playing for 2 bids.
Of those three, it's TCU and USC that clearly control their own destiny.
So why do I say tOSU is in good shape? Because kstate is likely to beat TCU(perhaps badly), and even if TCU does find a way to win one more time there is no guarantee a very flawed USC team beats Oregon or Utah.
So Ohio State is still looking good.....they still have a 70% chance or so(probably a little higher) to make the playoffs because that is the chance that either TCU or USC loses their conference title game.
So that means....
TCU- gets in by beating Kstate. Or alternatively can get in with a USC loss USC- gets in by winning pac12 title game(either utah or Oregon).
Ohio State- gets in with a loss by either TCU or USC in conference title game
And those three scenarios above are *ALL* you need to know about the playoff scenarios. The mainstream sports media will no doubt do a lot of useless bloviating about what could/should happen for the playoff scenarios going forward, but the above is
all it comes down to....
oops....I made a rare mistake and somehow was writing about Kstate as if they had 2 losses rather than the 3 they have. Forgot about the tulane game. I think kstate would demolish them now but given that really really really bad loss, they are out even
if they blow TCU out(which I don't rule out).
I think the only selection intrigue would be if TCU loses a very close game to Kansas State that is well played by them. Or at least thought to be. I think if that is the case one could certainly make an argument for TCU to get in over Ohio State, but
in the end I think Ohio State and their road win in Happy valley is enough at 11-1 to get in over 12-1 TCU.
I just hate to see a team punished for losing in a conference title game *relative* to another team who just sat at home and leapfrogged them because they didn't make their conference title game. Which may well be the case here. But oh well.....
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