The problem I see is that when people say "best 4 teams", they are usually talking about something predictive. But, look at any predictive rating, and TCU is far down. But what about most deserving? Here's a look at two rating systems that actuallybreak down both.
In FPI, TCU is ranked 16th (!). But in the strength of record on the FPI page, which asks the question, what is the likelihood of this record, TCU is ranked 1st. Similar are the Dolphin rankings where his predictive rankings have TCU 10th but hisstandard rankings (which uses PF/PA to set the schedule strength but then only uses W-L against that) also have TCU 1st.
By the supposed criterion of "best 4 teams", TCU might not be included. But if the season stopped now, wouldn't you want to include TCU in your 4 team playoff?
By the supposed criterion of "best 4 teams", TCU might not be included. But if the season stopped now, wouldn't you want to include TCU in your 4 team playoff?You see, that's the thing about college football. And you can't use the Group of 5 Argument either, in this case.
To me, the criteria should be as follows:
1) All undefeated teams in recognized FBS.
2) After that, you rank the conference champs for the rest of the spots.
Otherwise, you get what we have now: One completely dominant conference that, if you wanted the "four best teams", I could say Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama and dare anybody (including Ohio State and Michigan) to say otherwise.
The problem with your method is, Army (or a newly-independent Navy) schedules 10 cupcakes plus the other two service academies, and they have a decent shot at getting in.
The problem I see is that when people say "best 4 teams", they are usually talking about something predictive. But, look at any predictive rating, and TCU is far down. But what about most deserving? Here's a look at two rating systems that actuallybreak down both.
In FPI, TCU is ranked 16th (!). But in the strength of record on the FPI page, which asks the question, what is the likelihood of this record, TCU is ranked 1st. Similar are the Dolphin rankings where his predictive rankings have TCU 10th but hisstandard rankings (which uses PF/PA to set the schedule strength but then only uses W-L against that) also have TCU 1st.
By the supposed criterion of "best 4 teams", TCU might not be included. But if the season stopped now, wouldn't you want to include TCU in your 4 team playoff?
On 2022-11-15, JGibson <james.m...@gmail.com> wrote:break down both.
The problem I see is that when people say "best 4 teams", they are usually talking about something predictive. But, look at any predictive rating, and TCU is far down. But what about most deserving? Here's a look at two rating systems that actually
standard rankings (which uses PF/PA to set the schedule strength but then only uses W-L against that) also have TCU 1st.In FPI, TCU is ranked 16th (!). But in the strength of record on the FPI page, which asks the question, what is the likelihood of this record, TCU is ranked 1st. Similar are the Dolphin rankings where his predictive rankings have TCU 10th but his
By the supposed criterion of "best 4 teams", TCU might not be included. But if the season stopped now, wouldn't you want to include TCU in your 4 team playoff?I don't think predictor should even be a factor. Straight ELO win/loss, because
when it comes down to it, that's what wins at the end of the year. The W.
By the supposed criterion of "best 4 teams", TCU might not be included. But if the season stopped now, wouldn't you want to include TCU in your 4 team playoff?You see, that's the thing about college football. And you can't use the Group of 5 Argument either, in this case.
To me, the criteria should be as follows:
1) All undefeated teams in recognized FBS.
2) After that, you rank the conference champs for the rest of the spots.
Otherwise, you get what we have now: One completely dominant conference that, if you wanted the "four best teams", I could say Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama and dare anybody (including Ohio State and Michigan) to say otherwise.
The problem with your method is, Army (or a newly-independent Navy)
schedules 10 cupcakes plus the other two service academies, and they
have a decent shot at getting in.
The only NCAA tournament I can think of that doesn't depend on the "eye test" in any way to fill its field is men's ice hockey - and the method it uses doesn't really work in a sport like football where, with very few exceptions, teams don't play eachother more than once in a season.
On Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 7:42:08 PM UTC-5, Con Reeder, unhyphenated American wrote:break down both.
On 2022-11-15, JGibson <james.m...@gmail.com> wrote:
The problem I see is that when people say "best 4 teams", they are usually talking about something predictive. But, look at any predictive rating, and TCU is far down. But what about most deserving? Here's a look at two rating systems that actually
standard rankings (which uses PF/PA to set the schedule strength but then only uses W-L against that) also have TCU 1st.In FPI, TCU is ranked 16th (!). But in the strength of record on the FPI page, which asks the question, what is the likelihood of this record, TCU is ranked 1st. Similar are the Dolphin rankings where his predictive rankings have TCU 10th but his
Georgia #1.By the supposed criterion of "best 4 teams", TCU might not be included. But if the season stopped now, wouldn't you want to include TCU in your 4 team playoff?I don't think predictor should even be a factor. Straight ELO win/loss, because
when it comes down to it, that's what wins at the end of the year. The W.
That's the reason I'm highlighting FPI/SOR and Dolphin - because they make both rankings available. Sagarin and Massey no longer make their BCS-type rankings any more. Both Dolphin standard and ESPN's SOR actually have TCU #1. Colley actually has
On Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 7:59:17 PM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:actually break down both.
On Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 7:42:08 PM UTC-5, Con Reeder, unhyphenated American wrote:
On 2022-11-15, JGibson <james.m...@gmail.com> wrote:
The problem I see is that when people say "best 4 teams", they are usually talking about something predictive. But, look at any predictive rating, and TCU is far down. But what about most deserving? Here's a look at two rating systems that
standard rankings (which uses PF/PA to set the schedule strength but then only uses W-L against that) also have TCU 1st.
In FPI, TCU is ranked 16th (!). But in the strength of record on the FPI page, which asks the question, what is the likelihood of this record, TCU is ranked 1st. Similar are the Dolphin rankings where his predictive rankings have TCU 10th but his
Georgia #1.That's the reason I'm highlighting FPI/SOR and Dolphin - because they make both rankings available. Sagarin and Massey no longer make their BCS-type rankings any more. Both Dolphin standard and ESPN's SOR actually have TCU #1. Colley actually hasI don't think predictor should even be a factor. Straight ELO win/loss, because
By the supposed criterion of "best 4 teams", TCU might not be included. But if the season stopped now, wouldn't you want to include TCU in your 4 team playoff?
when it comes down to it, that's what wins at the end of the year. The W. >> >
The other thing is that straight up ELO gives you debacles like
Oklahoma being #1 in 2003 right after their 35-7 loss to K-State in
the Big 12 championship game, so the Sooners play in the BCS title
game instead of USC vs. LSU.
That goes to what I call qualifying and disqualifying events. Doesn't
matter if you're 12-0 (or 11-1) if you don't have a qualifying (good victory) event. Likewise a bad loss without more good victories.
I don't think predictor should even be a factor. Straight ELO win/loss, because
when it comes down to it, that's what wins at the end of the year. The W.
separately (Colley ranks FCS teams first, then groups them so that each group has approximately the same total number of games played against FBS teams), counting all non-Division I opponents as a single team:I don't think predictor should even be a factor. Straight ELO win/loss, because
when it comes down to it, that's what wins at the end of the year. The W.
Here are my top 25 when I use a variation on Colley that does not include the two "free" games (a 1-point loss to NFL All-Stars and a 3-point win over Little Sisters of the Poor, assuming all other games are won by 1 point) and includes all FCS teams
1. GeorgiaA zero-loss Michigan lower than a one-loss Tennessee and a Clemson
2. TCU
3. Tennessee
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama
6. USC
7. LSU
8. Clemson
9. Michigan
10. Oregon
punked by Notre Dame? Certainly with the undoubtedly strong Michigan
OOC schedule there....oops. Good here.
What about home field advantage? Shouldn't that play some part?
separately (Colley ranks FCS teams first, then groups them so that each group has approximately the same total number of games played against FBS teams), counting all non-Division I opponents as a single team:I don't think predictor should even be a factor. Straight ELO win/loss, because
when it comes down to it, that's what wins at the end of the year. The W.
What about home field advantage? Shouldn't that play some part?
Here are my top 25 when I use a variation on Colley that does not include the two "free" games (a 1-point loss to NFL All-Stars and a 3-point win over Little Sisters of the Poor, assuming all other games are won by 1 point) and includes all FCS teams
1. Georgia
2. TCU
3. Tennessee
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama
6. USC
7. LSU
8. Clemson
9. Michigan
10. Oregon
teams separately (Colley ranks FCS teams first, then groups them so that each group has approximately the same total number of games played against FBS teams), counting all non-Division I opponents as a single team:I don't think predictor should even be a factor. Straight ELO win/loss, because
when it comes down to it, that's what wins at the end of the year. The W.
Here are my top 25 when I use a variation on Colley that does not include the two "free" games (a 1-point loss to NFL All-Stars and a 3-point win over Little Sisters of the Poor, assuming all other games are won by 1 point) and includes all FCS
You're the one who wants a non-margin of victory system.1. GeorgiaA zero-loss Michigan lower than a one-loss Tennessee and a Clemson
2. TCU
3. Tennessee
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama
6. USC
7. LSU
8. Clemson
9. Michigan
10. Oregon
punked by Notre Dame? Certainly with the undoubtedly strong Michigan
OOC schedule there....oops. Good here.
Actually, if I use 1.4/1/0.6 like some versions of RPI do (i.e. a home win is worth 0.6 of a neutral win, and an away win is worth 1.4), I get...Holy Cross ranked ahead of both LSU and Michigan.What about home field advantage? Shouldn't that play some part?
It's a little better with 1.3/1/0.7, but Sacramento State and Holy Cross are both ranked ahead of Notre Dame and Texas.
. But I am not savvy in the ways of RPI.Actually, if I use 1.4/1/0.6 like some versions of RPI do (i.e. a home win is worth 0.6 of a neutral win, and an away win is worth 1.4), I get...Holy Cross ranked ahead of both LSU and Michigan.
It's a little better with 1.3/1/0.7, but Sacramento State and Holy Cross are both ranked ahead of Notre Dame and Texas.Where do those weights come from?
If the sd of games is 14 and the home field advantage is 3, the home team has a 58.8% chance against a peer. I reckon this means the weights should be 1.21/1/0.85 so there is the same expected value at home or away (as 1.21*(1-0.588)= 1*0.5= 0.85*0.588)
teams separately (Colley ranks FCS teams first, then groups them so that each group has approximately the same total number of games played against FBS teams), counting all non-Division I opponents as a single team:I don't think predictor should even be a factor. Straight ELO win/loss, becauseHere are my top 25 when I use a variation on Colley that does not include the two "free" games (a 1-point loss to NFL All-Stars and a 3-point win over Little Sisters of the Poor, assuming all other games are won by 1 point) and includes all FCS
when it comes down to it, that's what wins at the end of the year. The W. >> >
1. GeorgiaA zero-loss Michigan lower than a one-loss Tennessee and a Clemson
2. TCU
3. Tennessee
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama
6. USC
7. LSU
8. Clemson
9. Michigan
10. Oregon
punked by Notre Dame? Certainly with the undoubtedly strong Michigan
OOC schedule there....oops. Good here.
You're the one who wants a non-margin of victory system.
The problem I see is that when people say "best 4 teams", they are usually talking about something predictive. But, look at any predictive rating, and TCU is far down. But what about most deserving? Here's a look at two rating systems that actuallybreak down both.
In FPI, TCU is ranked 16th (!). But in the strength of record on the FPI page, which asks the question, what is the likelihood of this record, TCU is ranked 1st. Similar are the Dolphin rankings where his predictive rankings have TCU 10th but hisstandard rankings (which uses PF/PA to set the schedule strength but then only uses W-L against that) also have TCU 1st.
By the supposed criterion of "best 4 teams", TCU might not be included. But if the season stopped now, wouldn't you want to include TCU in your 4 team playoff?
On Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 1:22:42 PM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:break down both.
The problem I see is that when people say "best 4 teams", they are usually talking about something predictive. But, look at any predictive rating, and TCU is far down. But what about most deserving? Here's a look at two rating systems that actually
standard rankings (which uses PF/PA to set the schedule strength but then only uses W-L against that) also have TCU 1st.In FPI, TCU is ranked 16th (!). But in the strength of record on the FPI page, which asks the question, what is the likelihood of this record, TCU is ranked 1st. Similar are the Dolphin rankings where his predictive rankings have TCU 10th but his
By the supposed criterion of "best 4 teams", TCU might not be included. But if the season stopped now, wouldn't you want to include TCU in your 4 team playoff?I have a simple, accurate two (2) step process to
determine the top four (4) college football teams.
Step #1:
The Ohio State University Buckeyes are number one
and you let the crowd squabble over the next three teams.
Step #2:
If the Alabama Crimson Shit Kickers are on the list
you look for all the crooked crap and preferential
treatment the SEC pulled to get them there.
Irish Mike
Step #1:
The Ohio State University Buckeyes are number one
and you let the crowd squabble over the next three teams.
Step #2:
If the Alabama Crimson Shit Kickers are on the list
you look for all the crooked crap and preferential
treatment the SEC pulled to get them there.
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