• Division/Conference Championship Races - P5

    From JGibson@21:1/5 to All on Sun Nov 13 06:49:54 2022
    First, the easy ones: Congratulations to Clemson, North Carolina, Georgia, LSU, and TCU. You are all going to your conference championship game no matter what happens the rest of the season.

    Now, for the rest of the P5.

    Big Ten East:
    Another easy one. Winner of Michigan vs. Ohio State is the division champion regardless of what happens in the other conference game that each still need to play.

    Big Ten West:
    This is a mess. Currently a 4-way tie among Purdue, Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota at 4-3. Wisconsin is 3-4.
    Against each other:
    Purdue beat Minnesota and Illinois, lost to Iowa and Wisconsin
    Illinois beat Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, lost to Purdue
    Iowa beat Purdue and Wisconsin, lost to Illinois, still plays Minnesota Minnesota lost to Purdue and Illinois, still plays both Iowa and Wisconsin Wisconsin beat Purdue, lost to Illinois and Iowa, still plays Minnesota

    Purdue would seem to have the easiest path to 6-3 with games against Northwestern and Indiana left. Illinois has to go on the road to Michigan, and then finishes with Northwestern. Good chance that the winner of Iowa/Minnesota wins their other game (
    Minnesota goes to Wisconsin, Iowa hosts Nebraska). Purdue wins the 2-way tiebreaker over Minnesota and Iowa wins the 2-way tiebreaker over Purdue.

    Big 12:
    As mentioned above TCU is 7-0 and is one half of the title game. Right now, Kansas State is in sole possession second place at 5-2. K-State plays at West Virginia and hosts Kansas to finish the season. Win both and they are in. What if they lose to
    WVU? Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Texas are all 4-3. Oklahoma State still plays at Oklahoma and home against West Virginia. Baylor plays home against TCU and goes to Texas. Texas is at Kansas and then home against Baylor. K-State's two losses are to
    TCU and Texas, so they want to avoid a 2-team tiebreaker against Texas, but overall are in decent shape for maintaining that second place slot.

    First, Washington wins at Oregon and then Arizona wins at UCLA, messing up the easy stuff. So, now the current standings are:

    USC 7-1
    Oregon 6-1
    Utah 6-1
    UCLA 5-2
    Washington 5-2

    Games against each other:
    USC: lost to Utah, still plays UCLA
    Oregon: beat UCLA, lost to Washington, still plays Utah
    Utah: lost to UCLA, beat USC, still plays Oregon
    UCLA: beat Washington, beat Utah, still plays USC
    Washington: lost to UCLA, beat Oregon

    If USC beats UCLA, USC is in the title game. Winner of Utah/Oregon looks like they should be in, too. That game is first, then Utah plays Colorado and Oregon plays Oregon State. A loss in the second game by the winner could make it complicated. Also,
    if UCLA beats USC , there will be a 2-loss team in the title game. Although the Pac-12 is using the North/South alignment for scheduling, they are not for determining their title game, so the tiebreaker scenario comes in. Tiebreakers list here: https://
    pac-12.com/football/standings but I think I will wait until after the UCLA/USC game to see if I really need to read through that.

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