But still a long long way to go.

For ex, score was Steelers 0 Dolphins 7 in the first qtr.

Steelers had a fourth and 3 at their own 32.

Now they punted of course, and that's a defensible move. But the fact
that going for it *wasn't even discussed* as a possibility(and Im sure tomlin didn't think about it either) shows how far we are away.

Because based on analytics/win% modeling, its in the toss up category with
a very slight lean towards going for it.

So we are *a long way* away from most coaches still thinking about this right.

We are still seeing far too many punts when statistical modeling shows teams should be going for it. And we still see the ignorant sports media fail to understand the value of going for it(hence how they ripped staley the broncos head coach when he went
for it a couple weeks ago late in the game on 4th down and it was easily the right call)........

So some progress has been made, but still a long way to go.

Because honestly, there aren't that many positions on the field where a team should just reflexively punt......and we're still seeing teams automatically send the punt team out without even thinking about it when it should be very much a decision.

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Another interesting point:

Sometimes taking the fg on seemingly close fg vs 'go for it' decisions is the right decision. Why? Because to achieve the 'best'
possible outcome of 7 pts, you need not only to convert the 4th down, but then assuming you don't get a td you simply have
another set of percentile outcomes set up again....with no guarantee for success.

A lot of anti-analytics people don't get this. So yeah on 4th and goal at the 1, thats a different situation because if you make the
first down you also make the td. But on fourth and 2 at the 14 as we just saw in this snf game, the best play was actually
take the fg. Because just making the first down doesn't get you 7 points....it just keeps the chance for 7 pts alive.

The same can't be said for punt vs go for it decisions that are seemingly close. If you even have to think about it, the
right analytical play is NEVER to punt. In fact the punt is very rarely the smart play in the course of a football game. The field goal, otoh, often is.....

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And then there's some lineups and playcalls which make you wonder if they actually ever intended to convert the fourth down, ifyaknowwhatImean...

Packer game, for example...

Mike

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On Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 8:47:17 PM UTC-4, miande...@gmail.com wrote:

But still a long long way to go.

For ex, score was Steelers 0 Dolphins 7 in the first qtr.

Steelers had a fourth and 3 at their own 32.

Now they punted of course, and that's a defensible move. But the fact
that going for it *wasn't even discussed* as a possibility(and Im sure tomlin didn't think about it either) shows how far we are away.

Because based on analytics/win% modeling, its in the toss up category with
a very slight lean towards going for it.

So we are *a long way* away from most coaches still thinking about this right.

We are still seeing far too many punts when statistical modeling shows teams should be going for it. And we still see the ignorant sports media fail to understand the value of going for it(hence how they ripped staley the broncos head coach when he

went for it a couple weeks ago late in the game on 4th down and it was easily the right call)........

So some progress has been made, but still a long way to go.

Because honestly, there aren't that many positions on the field where a team should just reflexively punt......and we're still seeing teams automatically send the punt team out without even thinking about it when it should be very much a decision.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/lions-set-nfl-record-for-fourth-down-futility-not-seen-in-32-years-in-shutout-loss-to-patriots/

"Lions set NFL record for fourth down futility not seen in 32 years in shutout loss to Patriots"
The lions went 0 for 6 on fourth down, setting a new NFL mark"

-TE

Forget it Jake, it's the Lions.

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After about a year and a half of trying hard and falling short, the Lions have just given up the last two weeks.

Mike

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