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  • Long FG vs. going for it on 4th and 5

    From JGibson@21:1/5 to All on Tue Sep 13 06:35:23 2022
    According to Next Gen Stats:

    Broncos chance of making 1st down on 4th & 5 last night: 42%. Sure, not great, but chance of making a 64 yard FG? 14% Not even sure how that one is calculated since 66 is the longest and that was in a dome. 63 next longest. Several of those, but
    most are in high altitude, in domes, or with wind at the back. Over 63 never made in an open air sea level stadium.

    Way to cost your team roughly 30 percentage points in chance of winning, Coach Hackett.

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  • From Con Reeder, unhyphenated American@21:1/5 to JGibson on Tue Sep 13 14:06:09 2022
    On 2022-09-13, JGibson <james.m.gibson@gmail.com> wrote:
    According to Next Gen Stats:

    Broncos chance of making 1st down on 4th & 5 last night: 42%. Sure,
    not great, but chance of making a 64 yard FG? 14% Not even sure how
    that one is calculated since 66 is the longest and that was in a dome.
    63 next longest. Several of those, but most are in high altitude, in
    domes, or with wind at the back. Over 63 never made in an open air sea
    level stadium.

    Percentage estimates vary, but I saw 36.4 / 7.5 in another estimate, which is roughly the same type of calculation.

    Way to cost your team roughly 30 percentage points in chance of winning, Coach Hackett.

    I thought it might be that he didn't want to influence the whole season by putting it on Wilson's shoulders in such a prominent situation early in the year. If he can take the blame, it insulates his QB.


    --
    Do you remember, before the internet, that it was thought that the
    cause of collective stupidity was the lack of access to information?
    Well ... it wasn't that. -- unknown

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  • From michael anderson@21:1/5 to JGibson on Tue Sep 13 07:09:05 2022
    On Tuesday, September 13, 2022 at 8:35:25 AM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
    According to Next Gen Stats:

    Broncos chance of making 1st down on 4th & 5 last night: 42%. Sure, not great, but chance of making a 64 yard FG? 14% Not even sure how that one is calculated since 66 is the longest and that was in a dome. 63 next longest. Several of those, but most
    are in high altitude, in domes, or with wind at the back. Over 63 never made in an open air sea level stadium.

    Way to cost your team roughly 30 percentage points in chance of winning, Coach Hackett.

    see my post on the topic- the comparison isn't between the chances of making 4th and 5 vs kicking a 64 yard field goal.

    The comparison is between the chances of kicking a 64 yard field goal vs making 4th and 5 *and* then kicking a field goal after that(of undetermined length....maybe 40 yards, maybe 59 yards)

    The actual winning % expectation numbers between the two decisions were actually very close. I would have gone for it, but either
    decision was reasonable based on the analytics.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From JGibson@21:1/5 to miande...@gmail.com on Tue Sep 13 07:49:13 2022
    On Tuesday, September 13, 2022 at 10:09:08 AM UTC-4, miande...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 13, 2022 at 8:35:25 AM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
    According to Next Gen Stats:

    Broncos chance of making 1st down on 4th & 5 last night: 42%. Sure, not great, but chance of making a 64 yard FG? 14% Not even sure how that one is calculated since 66 is the longest and that was in a dome. 63 next longest. Several of those, but most
    are in high altitude, in domes, or with wind at the back. Over 63 never made in an open air sea level stadium.

    Way to cost your team roughly 30 percentage points in chance of winning, Coach Hackett.
    see my post on the topic- the comparison isn't between the chances of making 4th and 5 vs kicking a 64 yard field goal.

    The comparison is between the chances of kicking a 64 yard field goal vs making 4th and 5 *and* then kicking a field goal after that(of undetermined length....maybe 40 yards, maybe 59 yards)

    The actual winning % expectation numbers between the two decisions were actually very close. I would have gone for it, but either
    decision was reasonable based on the analytics.

    Yes, I should have added the percentage of success after the 4th down, so it's significantly lower than the 42% chance they had of making the 4th and 5. However, I'm not sure the FG is even 14% chance of being made. In Denver? Probably. In Seattle?
    No, I think the chances are even lower. I'm not quite sure how you make that calculation. Obviously, a bunch more 60+ yard FGs have been made recently, but the only two over 63 are Justin Tucker's 66 yarder in the Silverdome and Matt Prater's 64 yarder
    at Mile High.

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  • From michael anderson@21:1/5 to JGibson on Tue Sep 13 18:56:26 2022
    On Tuesday, September 13, 2022 at 9:49:15 AM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 13, 2022 at 10:09:08 AM UTC-4, miande...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 13, 2022 at 8:35:25 AM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
    According to Next Gen Stats:

    Broncos chance of making 1st down on 4th & 5 last night: 42%. Sure, not great, but chance of making a 64 yard FG? 14% Not even sure how that one is calculated since 66 is the longest and that was in a dome. 63 next longest. Several of those, but
    most are in high altitude, in domes, or with wind at the back. Over 63 never made in an open air sea level stadium.

    Way to cost your team roughly 30 percentage points in chance of winning, Coach Hackett.
    see my post on the topic- the comparison isn't between the chances of making 4th and 5 vs kicking a 64 yard field goal.

    The comparison is between the chances of kicking a 64 yard field goal vs making 4th and 5 *and* then kicking a field goal after that(of undetermined length....maybe 40 yards, maybe 59 yards)

    The actual winning % expectation numbers between the two decisions were actually very close. I would have gone for it, but either
    decision was reasonable based on the analytics.
    Yes, I should have added the percentage of success after the 4th down, so it's significantly lower than the 42% chance they had of making the 4th and 5. However, I'm not sure the FG is even 14% chance of being made. In Denver? Probably. In Seattle? No,
    I think the chances are even lower. I'm not quite sure how you make that calculation. Obviously, a bunch more 60+ yard FGs have been made recently, but the only two over 63 are Justin Tucker's 66 yarder in the Silverdome and Matt Prater's 64 yarder at
    Mile High.

    Honestly, since year after year kickers are getting better and better at seems at super long field goals I think it's greater than 14%.
    The reality is there just arent a lot of 64 yard fgs attempted in the last year or two so there isn't good data on making a calculation. Or weren't at least before. But we've seen more high 50s yard field goals attempted lately, and a lot of those seem
    to be sailing through with *plenty* of leg. The browns kicker hit a 58 yard game winner sunday and it would have clearly been good for 64(I think....I wasn't watching it super closely).....

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