It's clear at this point that if the 4 undefeated P5 teams win, that's your CFP. Easy enough. What if the defeated teams knock them off their perch?

Oregon / Washington - with Washington ranked 3rd and Oregon ranked 5th, it appears that the winner of this game should claim one slot in the CFP. Oregon's only loss would then be by 3 on the road to a team that it then beat at a neutral site and gave
its only loss to. I don't think a split should keep you out, so Oregon would be treated almost like an undefeated team.

Alabama / Georgia - This is where it could get really interesting. Auburn could have solved this problem by playing defense on Alabama last week. But here we are. Alabama wins here, and HTH suggests Alabama would be ranked above Georgia (both have one
loss with HTH as tiebreaker, which the committee seems to be keen on for teams with the same record). If Texas also wins, does that dictate Texas > Alabama > Georgia? No matter what you say about Alabama improving and maybe being better than Texas now,
the fact is Texas went to Alabama and won by double digits, and that game has to count (again if the teams have the same record. If Texas loses to OK State, then they won't need to be ranked above a 1-loss Alabama).

Iowa / Michigan - Michigan is currently #2, but a loss to Iowa, I think, would knock them as far down as they could go but still be ahead of Ohio State based on HTH. If Georgia and Florida State win, and Oregon beats Washington, you could have Michigan
just outside at #5 with both Oregon and Washington in the top 4.

Texas / Oklahoma State - For the sake of the top 4, the CFP might really like Oklahoma State to pull this upset, because then it ends the whole Texas vs. Alabama debate (if they both lose, I guess it would come up again but with much fewer consequences).
OK State is not getting into the top 10, and I don't think Texas falls out of the top 12 with a loss here, so unless other weird things happen, an OK State win would have few consequences vs. how it's currently ranked.

Florida State / Louisville - Florida State needs this win to stay in the CFP. I can't seem them dropping FSU beyond 4th as long as they win this game. A loss would send them tumbling, probably to the back of the line for 1-loss teams but ahead of 2-
loss teams. Looks like Louisville gets the Orange Bowl either way.

Tulane / SMU - Right now Tulane has the G5 slot in the NY6. SMU win opens up for either themselves, Liberty, or Toledo (which I hadn't noticed until Michael Falkner pointed out were ranked in the coaches' poll). Toledo is way down (60th) in the Game
Control metric compared to any of Tulane, Liberty, or SMU (23rd through 25th). And also behind in SOR, although not nearly as much. I'm thinking that among G5 teams, right now, it's pretty much: 1. Tulane, 2. Liberty, 3. SMU. So if Tulane wins, they
keep the slot. If SMU wins, it depends on the Liberty result.

Liberty / NMSU - bring this up because of the above. I think a Liberty win and a Tulane loss will give the final NY6 slot to an undefeated Liberty team. A loss would clearly knock them out.

The others, which include Boise State / UNLV, Toledo / Miami (OH), and Appalachian State / Troy will have much less effect especially since bowls stopped necessarily locking in their champion and just going to the one that makes more sense regionally or
for TV.

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