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  • ESPNs in game winning percentage tracker can't be right.....

    From michael anderson@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 25 22:28:17 2023
    because it is saying Alabama had a 0.1% chance to win(presumably on the play before the 4th down pass for a touchdown).

    There is *no way* that is right. The chance of alabama(or any offense) converting 4th and goal from the 30 yard line is obviously poor, but it's far higher than 1 out of 1000. Even true 50 yard hail marys have a much better chance than that, and this
    was 20 yards closer and just a long pass and not a hail mary.

    I don't know what the exact percentages are, but I would say Alabama(or really most teams in that situation) convert that 4th and 30 about 3-4% of the time......so obviously poor, but nowhere near as poor as this 0.1% nonsense.

    And since in this case converting the 4th and goal at the 30 is going to closely track winning(just lagging a little behind since a small percent of the time the team then down 3 could come back), espn is off by a factor of about 30x lol.....

    I just don't see how they got 0.1%.....I was surprised watching the play of course, but not 1/1000 surprised. But trying to score on 4th and goal from the 30 is certainly not a 1/1000 hope........

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  • From Michael Falkner@21:1/5 to michael anderson on Sat Nov 25 22:32:51 2023
    On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 10:28:19 PM UTC-8, michael anderson wrote:
    because it is saying Alabama had a 0.1% chance to win(presumably on the play before the 4th down pass for a touchdown).

    There is *no way* that is right. The chance of alabama(or any offense) converting 4th and goal from the 30 yard line is obviously poor, but it's far higher than 1 out of 1000. Even true 50 yard hail marys have a much better chance than that, and this
    was 20 yards closer and just a long pass and not a hail mary.

    Remember, though, mia -- that's to win the game.

    To do that, Alabama must:

    * convert 4th and goal from the 31
    * and THEN prevent Auburn from getting a quick tying score and Auburn wins in OT or a quick Auburn winning score

    I think <0.1% is actually correct here.

    Mike

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  • From michael anderson@21:1/5 to Michael Falkner on Sat Nov 25 23:00:51 2023
    On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 12:32:54 AM UTC-6, Michael Falkner wrote:
    On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 10:28:19 PM UTC-8, michael anderson wrote:
    because it is saying Alabama had a 0.1% chance to win(presumably on the play before the 4th down pass for a touchdown).

    There is *no way* that is right. The chance of alabama(or any offense) converting 4th and goal from the 30 yard line is obviously poor, but it's far higher than 1 out of 1000. Even true 50 yard hail marys have a much better chance than that, and this
    was 20 yards closer and just a long pass and not a hail mary.
    Remember, though, mia -- that's to win the game.

    To do that, Alabama must:

    * convert 4th and goal from the 31
    * and THEN prevent Auburn from getting a quick tying score and Auburn wins in OT or a quick Auburn winning score

    but there were 25 seconds left after the kickoff, and auburn had either 1 or 0 timeout(oh yeah and their offense sucks).

    You can't possibly give Auburn more than a 15 percent chance to get a fg there, and then even if you give them a 15% chance to get a fg, that means you're giving them a 7.5% chance to win the game with OT(which again is overly generous because the 6 win
    team doesn't have a 50% chance in OT against a highly ranked team).....so basically you can see that Alabama converting 4th and goal and Alabama winning are going to be pretty darn close/track fairly closely. If there were like 1:00 left or so, that
    would affect the numbers more and they wouldn't track so closely.....



    I think <0.1% is actually correct here.

    No it can't be.....since as I said above we know true hail marys are much more likely to be completed than that, and this was much easier/more likely than a true hail mary. Even if you give Auburn a ridiculous 15% chance to win the game *after* the
    converted 4th and 30(which is at least two times to high), that means for the 0.1% to be right the chance of alabama converting that fourth and 30 still rounds to 1/1000.......which again is just not realistic.

    If they play that 4th and goal at the 30 one hundred times, I bet Alabama converts 3 or 4 of them each set of 100. Keep in mind you may even get a few PI's and then they move the ball up for a higher percentage try as well(which all goes into the
    percentages)......

    But the idea that they are only going to convert a 30 yard pass play roughly one out of 1000 times? Lmao no way.......if people believe that they don't conceptually get how rare 1/1000 is.





    Mike

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