1) Barring two specific teams winning in late games (Cal is up 6-0 on UCLA early 2nd), the two transitioning ineligibles may be needed after all.Texas getting involved if they win.
2) Conference title games:
Pac-12: Washington-Oregon (Friday 5 PM Pacific, Las Vegas Allegiant Stadium, ABC)
Big XII: Oklahoma State-Texas (Saturday 9 AM Pacific, AT&T Stadium, ABC)
SEC: Alabama-Georgia. (Saturday 1 PM Pacific, Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, CBS)
ACC: Florida State-Louisville (Saturday 5 PM Pacific, Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, ABC)
Big Ten: Iowa-Michigan (Saturday 5 PM Pacific, Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN, FOX)
***************
American Athletic: SMU at Tulane (Saturday, 1 PM Pacific, ABC)
Conference USA: New Mexico State at Liberty (Friday 4 PM Pacific, CBS Sports Network)
MAC: Miami (OH)-Toledo (Saturday 9 AM Pacific, Ford Field in Detroit, ESPN)
Sun Belt: Appalachian State at Troy (Saturday 1 PM Pacific, ESPN)
Mountain West: 12 PM Pacific on FOX, opponents and site to be determined between San Jose State, Boise State, and UNLV by a four-computer composite after all regular-season games finish tonight.
3) CFP...
Start with the easy part: Tulane beats SMU, they go as the Go5. If they lose, Liberty goes if they beat New Mexico State. After that...
We still do have the potential for four undefeated conference champions in the Power Five: Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Florida State. If all four win, there would almost certainly have to be your four.
If not...
Alabama beats Georgia: That would probably be the largest potential to screw an undefeated Florida State. FSU certainly did NOT turn heads in beating Florida tonight, so that might well get a situation where both Alabama and Georgia get in.
Iowa beats Michigan: Oof. That would probably be the "worst" loss of the four, and would make for a decent case to get Michigan out. And especially if Alabama beats Georgia, that could open the door, say, for all sorts of Top Four chaos, including
Louisville beats Florida State: FSU is eliminated, period-end. They may be ANYWAY if they slog through Louisville and don't do more than just win (would the Committee think, for example, a one-loss Ohio State or even Georgia would be better than thisFSU team with the new QB?)
1) Barring two specific teams winning in late games (Cal is up 6-0 on UCLA early 2nd), the two transitioning ineligibles may be needed after all.Texas getting involved if they win.
2) Conference title games:
Pac-12: Washington-Oregon (Friday 5 PM Pacific, Las Vegas Allegiant Stadium, ABC)
Big XII: Oklahoma State-Texas (Saturday 9 AM Pacific, AT&T Stadium, ABC)
SEC: Alabama-Georgia. (Saturday 1 PM Pacific, Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, CBS)
ACC: Florida State-Louisville (Saturday 5 PM Pacific, Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, ABC)
Big Ten: Iowa-Michigan (Saturday 5 PM Pacific, Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN, FOX)
***************
American Athletic: SMU at Tulane (Saturday, 1 PM Pacific, ABC)
Conference USA: New Mexico State at Liberty (Friday 4 PM Pacific, CBS Sports Network)
MAC: Miami (OH)-Toledo (Saturday 9 AM Pacific, Ford Field in Detroit, ESPN)
Sun Belt: Appalachian State at Troy (Saturday 1 PM Pacific, ESPN)
Mountain West: 12 PM Pacific on FOX, opponents and site to be determined between San Jose State, Boise State, and UNLV by a four-computer composite after all regular-season games finish tonight.
3) CFP...
Start with the easy part: Tulane beats SMU, they go as the Go5. If they lose, Liberty goes if they beat New Mexico State. After that...
We still do have the potential for four undefeated conference champions in the Power Five: Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Florida State. If all four win, there would almost certainly have to be your four.
If not...
Alabama beats Georgia: That would probably be the largest potential to screw an undefeated Florida State. FSU certainly did NOT turn heads in beating Florida tonight, so that might well get a situation where both Alabama and Georgia get in.
Iowa beats Michigan: Oof. That would probably be the "worst" loss of the four, and would make for a decent case to get Michigan out. And especially if Alabama beats Georgia, that could open the door, say, for all sorts of Top Four chaos, including
Louisville beats Florida State: FSU is eliminated, period-end. They may be ANYWAY if they slog through Louisville and don't do more than just win (would the Committee think, for example, a one-loss Ohio State or even Georgia would be better than thisFSU team with the new QB?)
Oregon beats Washington: That probably is a CFP "Quarterfinal". The winner is in, basically regardless.State for #4 -- that's why you need Texas to probably lose.
Texas: Needs to win and get help. Probably needs Georgia to win (or Alabama jumps them) and to probably get the nod over Florida State in the discussion of, say, Georgia-Michigan-ORE/WSH winner-#4.
Alabama: Needs to win and get the good graces of the Committee. Something like Michigan-ORE/WSH winner-Alabama-Georgia or something to that effect.
Ohio State: Probably needs the weekend to chalk out (Michigan, Georgia, ORE-WSH winner), Texas losing would probably be a significant help, and Florida State continues to muddle. At that point, you could have a discussion between Ohio State and Florida
no, you really couldn't.....
FSU would be an undefeated conference champion and have wins over LSU, Clemson, Louisville
tOSU would have a loss, wouldn't have won their division, and have wins over Notre dame and penn state
I don't believe FSU is any good and I would pick tOSU to win that matchup, but the committee looks at things like resume, wins, conference championship status, etc.....and doing so it's clear FSU is getting in if they beat Lville.
Ohio State's path to the playoffs is very clear: they need both FSU and Texas to lose next week. Those things happen and they are in. Texas just needs FSU to lose.
On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 10:54:32 PM UTC-6, Michael Falkner wrote:out, even if nobody really believes they are one of the top 4 teams in the country.
3) CFP...
No....if FSU beats Louisville, regardless of how unimpressive, they get a spot. The fact that tOSU would be favored or looks better is not going to be relevant. They'd be a 13-0 conference champion with enough decent wins that you couldn't keep them
Here is how things break down and it's very simple:
-Michigan is going to easily beat Iowa and get in. Thinking about whether or not michigan would get in without beating iowa is silly because Iowa is terrible.
-The georgia/Bama winner is in(Georgia #1 overall likely if they win). As for 1 loss champion bama v 1 loss champion texas, yes Texas fans are going to complain and maybe they have a point. but the reality is that the win over georgia would just be toobig. You beat the two time defending champ who has won 29 straight and is #1......that win is so huge it overcomes any hth deficit. But georgia is likely to win and probably easily(since alabama isn't very good)
-The washington/oregon winner is also in. probably oregon. And the loser is obviously out.
So right there that's three spots- Michigan, the georgia/bama winner(likely georgia), and the oregon/washington winner(likely oregon)
That leaves one spot between FSU, Texas, and tOSU. Here is how that will be awarded:
-if FSU beats Lville, they are in and get the spot.
-If FSU loses, they are out and then Texas is next up. If Texas wins the big12 championship game and FSU loses to Lville, Texas gets the last spot.
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