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  • Chances of getting into a bowl

    From The NOTBCS Guy@21:1/5 to All on Sun Nov 19 09:57:39 2023
    Of the teams that haven't already guaranteed a bowl berth and have a chance either to get to 6 wins or qualify on APR with 5 wins (or, for James Madison and Jacksonville State, if there aren't 82 other 6-win teams), here are the probabilities of each one
    getting into a bowl, based on the game win probabilities from ESPN Analytics: James Madison, 96.3069 %
    Central Florida, 93.9727 %
    Rice, 92.9435 %
    Jacksonville State, 90.4918 % (this assumes that, if there are 81 berths taken by 6-win teams, James Madison gets taken over Jacksonville State for the last one)
    Minnesota, 89.1221 %
    Northern Illinois, 86.7135 %
    Louisiana, 84.5 %
    Mississippi State, 70.6513 %
    Syracuse, 69.6 %
    South Carolina, 66.2708 %
    South Florida, 61.7308 %
    Utah State, 61.6024 %
    Marshall, 61.1 %
    Virginia Tech, 60.4174 %
    Illinois, 59.3 %
    Old Dominion, 54.8 %
    Navy, 44.9303 %
    Eastern Michigan, 42.3225 %
    Nebraska, 39.7419 %
    Florida, 33.6486 %
    California, 26.8 %
    Wake Forest, 24.2649 %
    Central Michigan, 20.2 %
    BYU, 18.4 %
    TCU, 15.6 %
    Army, 14.4329 %
    Washington State, 11.2 %
    Ball State, 6.9779 %
    Middle Tennessee State, 2.0426 %
    Michigan State, 1.4384 %
    San Diego State, 0.0012 %

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The NOTBCS Guy@21:1/5 to All on Tue Nov 21 10:51:01 2023
    San Diego State, 0.0012 %

    That would be quite a stunt, considering San Diego State is 3-8.

    You would think NCAA.com would have an accurate set of FBS standings - but it says that San Diego State is 4-7.
    It also has 5-6 Colorado State at 4-7.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From JGibson@21:1/5 to The NOTBCS Guy on Tue Nov 21 13:48:52 2023
    On Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 1:51:03 PM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
    San Diego State, 0.0012 %
    That would be quite a stunt, considering San Diego State is 3-8.

    You would think NCAA.com would have an accurate set of FBS standings - but it says that San Diego State is 4-7.
    It also has 5-6 Colorado State at 4-7.

    Apparently NCAA.com thinks SDSU won that game two weeks ago? It also lists SDSU's streak as lost 1 and CSU's as won 1, whereas espn.com has SDSU's as lost 4 and CSU's as won 2.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From JGibson@21:1/5 to JGibson on Tue Nov 21 13:50:29 2023
    On Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 4:48:55 PM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
    On Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 1:51:03 PM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
    San Diego State, 0.0012 %
    That would be quite a stunt, considering San Diego State is 3-8.

    You would think NCAA.com would have an accurate set of FBS standings - but it says that San Diego State is 4-7.
    It also has 5-6 Colorado State at 4-7.
    Apparently NCAA.com thinks SDSU won that game two weeks ago? It also lists SDSU's streak as lost 1 and CSU's as won 1, whereas espn.com has SDSU's as lost 4 and CSU's as won 2.

    But if you go onto scores and track that game down, NCAA.com shows Colorado State winning 22-19.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)