• Conference Championship Watch (4:45 PM PSt, 11/11)

    From Michael Falkner@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 11 17:16:11 2023
    SEC has it already set, and it was what you knew it was going to be in August: (8) Alabama vs. (2) Georgia.

    ACC:

    Also already set:

    (4) Florida State wraps up the conference slate undefeated, they will play (11) Louisville, as they can have no more than two conference losses and are undefeated against all other ACC teams which can have two losses.

    (4) Florida State vs. (11) Louisville

    Big XII:

    Way too much to do yet. (7) Texas has one conference loss, three or four other teams (WVU/OU winner, Iowa State if it beats BYU, Oklahoma State, Kansas State) will have two at the end of the night, and Texas losses to Oklahoma State on the road and
    Texas Tech would bring Tech and Kansas into the mess...

    Big Ten:

    The (3) Michigan/(2)Ohio State winner will face (22)Iowa, unless Iowa loses to both Nebraska and Illinois and you get an abject four-conference-loss MESS in the West.

    Pac-12:

    A bit too much to do yet. (5)Washington needs one more win to be sure. (6)Oregon needs two. Anything less than that, and it gets messy.

    So, in the Power Five:

    ACC: Florida State vs. Louisville (LOCKED)
    Big XII: Too close to call
    Big Ten: Michigan/Ohio State winner vs. Iowa (BASICALLY LOCKED)
    Pac-12: A bit too close to call, but it does appear a Washington/Oregon rematch is likely -- though this IS the Pac-12!!!
    SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (LOCKED)

    *****************

    Go5:

    AAC:

    You have three undefeated conference teams who haven't played each other. (23)Tulane, Texas-San Antonio, and SMU.

    SMU plays neither, Tulane hosts Texas-San Antonio in two weeks.

    So as long as SMU beats Memphis and Navy, they will play the Tulane-UTSA winner, barring any trip-up next week or Rice beating UTSA tonight.

    C-USA:

    Liberty has won the regular-season conference title. They have beaten both one-loss teams in the conference, so they will host the conference championship game. They will face the winner of the game in two weeks between New Mexico State and
    Jacksonville State.

    NM State/Jacksonville State winner at Liberty

    MAC:

    Toledo has won the MAC West breezingly, so they're headed to Detroit.

    They will face Miami (OH) unless they lose to both Buffalo and Ball State or either or both of Ohio and Bowling Green lose a game.

    Toledo vs. probably Miami (OH)

    Mtn West:

    A little too much work to do. (UNLV is 8-2 and 5-1 in the conference????) Air Force is undefeated in the conference, but there's still work to do.

    Fresno State currently has the tiebreaker with UNLV, but there's still a bit too much to worry about.

    UNLV must beat Air Force next week or they basically lose all tiebreakers.

    Sun Belt:

    Because of James Madison's ineligibility, things are a bit too complicated in the East. You have three teams with two conference losses (and two of them have to play James Madison).

    Whatever survives out of there faces Troy, who clinched the West today. Two clear and their only conference loss is to James Madison, and they've beaten all the three-loss teams in the division.

    TBD vs. Troy

    So for the Go5:

    AAC: To be determined, three undefeated teams cannot go into two.

    C-USA: NM State/Jacksonville State winner at Liberty (LOCKED)

    MAC: Toledo vs. Miami (OH) (BASICALLY LOCKED, Toledo is locked)

    Mountain West: Too close to call.

    Sun Belt: Survivor of the second-placers in the east vs. Troy (Troy is locked)

    Mike

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  • From Michael Falkner@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 11 23:31:47 2023
    Some updates from Saturday evening's play:

    Big XII:

    (7) Texas has one loss

    (15) Oklahoma State, (17) Oklahoma, (25) Kansas State, and Iowa State have two.

    HTH:

    Texas: To play Iowa State, doesn't play Oklahoma State, Oklahoma L, Kansas St. W
    Oklahoma State: L Iowa State, W Oklahoma, doesn't play Texas W Kansas State Oklahoma: W Texas, L Oklahoma State, W Iowa State, does not play Kansas State Kansas State: L Oklahoma State, L Texas, does not play Oklahoma, to play Iowa State
    Iowa State: To play Texas and Kansas State, L Oklahoma, W Oklahoma State

    If I read this right, I have to find a common opponent of all 5 to break this (potential) tie? Because if I can't, do we go strength of conference schedule on this bad boy? What I'm reading is that all must play all for HTH...

    Mtn West:

    Air Force lost to Hawaii, so Air Force and UNLV are both 5-1, 8-2 and they play next week.

    Winner of that game hosts the MWC championship game if they win in the final week.

    If UNLV beats Air Force and San Jose State, Air Force would go to Las Vegas if they beat Boise State (they'd have beaten all three other potential two-loss teams), but would be eliminated with another loss as long as Boise doesn't lose next week.

    If Air Force wins that game, UNLV is eliminated unless they beat San Jose State (or they would lose to all three potential two-loss teams) AND Fresno loses to one of the two conference cellar-dwellers, since Fresno has beaten both UNLV and Boise.

    Fresno State, Boise State, and San Jose State await with bated breath.

    Sun Belt:

    Because of James Madison's ineligibility:

    Coastal Carolina represents the East and goes to Troy if they defeat James Madison or if Georgia Southern and App State lose a game each.

    Appalachian State needs to defeat James Madison and Georgia Southern AND have Coastal Carolina lose to James Madison to go to Troy.

    Georgia Southern must have Coastal Carolina lose to James Madison and win out.

    Old Dominion cannot win the berth, even with 5-3 in the conference, Coastal Carolina would win a 2-way tiebreaker with just Old Dominion and a three-way tiebreaker with also App. State. A four-way tiebreaker is impossible.

    Mike

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  • From The NOTBCS Guy@21:1/5 to All on Sun Nov 12 10:57:18 2023
    Big Ten:

    The (3) Michigan/(2)Ohio State winner will face (22)Iowa, unless Iowa loses to both Nebraska and Illinois and you get an abject four-conference-loss MESS in the West.

    Not really. Remember, Illinois still has to play Northwestern, and Nebraska still has to play Wisconsin, so the losers of those two games will have 3 losses. Assuming Ohio State beats Minnesota, the tie is down to at most three teams.

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  • From Michael Falkner@21:1/5 to The NOTBCS Guy on Sun Nov 12 12:40:34 2023
    On Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 10:57:20 AM UTC-8, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
    Big Ten:

    The (3) Michigan/(2)Ohio State winner will face (22)Iowa, unless Iowa loses to both Nebraska and Illinois and you get an abject four-conference-loss MESS in the West.
    Not really. Remember, Illinois still has to play Northwestern, and Nebraska still has to play Wisconsin, so the losers of those two games will have 3 losses. Assuming Ohio State beats Minnesota, the tie is down to at most three teams.

    They'll have five losses, since we want to go there.

    And Wisconsin also still has to play Minnesota, another current 3-4 team in the conference.

    Mike

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