This is why NOTBCS doesn't start until Week 3...
From
The NOTBCS Guy@21:1/5 to
All on Sun Sep 10 12:29:10 2023
Here's my SRS/Colley-style ratings after Week 2:
1 - Texas
2 - Miami
3 - Rice
4 - Rutgers
5 - Miami Ohio
6 - Oklahoma
7 - Auburn
8 - UCLA
9 - Texas A&M
10 - Florida State
11 - Alabama
12 - USC
t13 - Houston
t13 - Iowa
t13 - Minnesota
t13 - North Carolina
t13 - Colorado
18 - Idaho
19 - Liberty
20 - SMU
21 - Washington
22 - Fresno State
23 - Temple
t24 - Mississippi
t24 - Michigan
This is based on 50% average "adjusted margin of victory" and 50% average opponents' rating.
"Adjusted margin of victory" is 30 for an away or neutral win; for a home win, it is 25 + 1 for every 7 points of actual MOV, up to an adjusted value of 30 (for an actual MOV of 35 or more), except that a home OT win is always 25.
It sounds strange, but it has an accuracy rate of 83.804% over all Division I games from 2014 through 2022 except in 2020.
The problem is, not all teams are "connected" - for example, the only FBS teams Arizona and Mississippi State have played so far are each other - so the strength of schedule component isn't very accurate yet.
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