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  • The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-

    From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Fri Feb 10 09:13:42 2023
    Download spreadsheets here:

    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/10/european-cups-2022-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest-knockout-round/

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Feb 14 05:48:10 2023
    On Friday, February 10, 2023 at 12:13:45 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Download spreadsheets here:

    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/10/european-cups-2022-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest-knockout-round/

    Last few hours to send your entries for the UCL SophCon
    Entries so far:

    Agnostic
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    Anders T
    MH

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Feb 14 05:57:54 2023
    On Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:48:12 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, February 10, 2023 at 12:13:45 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Download spreadsheets here:

    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/10/european-cups-2022-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest-knockout-round/
    Last few hours to send your entries for the UCL SophCon
    Entries so far:

    Agnostic
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    Anders T
    MH

    Werner

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Feb 14 06:30:31 2023
    On Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:57:56 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:48:12 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, February 10, 2023 at 12:13:45 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Download spreadsheets here:

    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/10/european-cups-2022-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest-knockout-round/
    Last few hours to send your entries for the UCL SophCon
    Entries so far:

    Agnostic
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    Anders T
    MH
    Werner
    Betfair

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Jesper Lauridsen on Tue Feb 14 13:47:07 2023
    On Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 4:42:48 PM UTC-5, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

    I sent mine yesterday.

    Yes, got it. Make sure to send to the futbolmetrix@yahoo address

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  • From Jesper Lauridsen@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Feb 14 13:42:46 2023
    On Tuesday, 14 February 2023 at 15:30:33 UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:57:56 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:48:12 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, February 10, 2023 at 12:13:45 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Download spreadsheets here:

    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/10/european-cups-2022-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest-knockout-round/
    Last few hours to send your entries for the UCL SophCon
    Entries so far:

    Agnostic
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    Anders T
    MH
    Werner
    Betfair

    I sent mine yesterday.

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Thu Feb 16 06:32:33 2023
    On Friday, February 10, 2023 at 12:13:45 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Download spreadsheets here:

    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/10/european-cups-2022-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest-knockout-round/

    Updated list of participants:

    UCL
    ----------
    Agnostic
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    Anders T
    MH
    Werner Pichler
    Betfair
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil)
    Jesper
    Collective Consciousness


    UEL
    ------
    Agnostic
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    MH
    Werner Pichler
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil)
    Jesper
    Anders T

    UECL
    --------
    Agnostic
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil)
    MH
    Jesper

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Fri Feb 17 08:34:03 2023
    On Thursday, February 16, 2023 at 9:32:35 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Intermediate standings after today's matches

    Champions League:
    -------------------------------
    FiveThirtyEight -3.740
    MH -3.742
    Anders T -3.794
    Jesper -3.876
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -3.928
    Agnostic -4.159
    Collective Consciousness -4.241
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -4.422
    Futbolmetrix -4.527
    Betfair -4.922
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -4.922
    Werner Pichler -5.147


    Europa League
    -------------------------
    Agnostic -11.090
    Anders T -13.482
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -14.538
    Futbolmetrix -15.374
    Collective Consciousness -15.443
    MH -15.540
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.521
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -16.666
    Jesper -16.670
    Werner Pichler -16.931
    FiveThirtyEight -17.946


    Conference League
    -------------------------------
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -10.419
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -10.969
    Agnostic -11.090
    FiveThirtyEight -11.446
    MH -11.612
    Futbolmetrix -11.729
    Collective Consciousness -11.746
    Werner Pichler -12.284
    Jesper -13.297
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -15.589

    Master spreadsheets available here: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Fri Mar 17 07:15:26 2023
    On Friday, February 17, 2023 at 11:34:05 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Thursday, February 16, 2023 at 9:32:35 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Intermediate standings after today's matches


    Standings after the Round of 16 in all competitions:

    Champions League:
    --------------------------------
    Werner Pichler -6.980
    Futbolmetrix -7.259
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -7.615
    MH -7.758
    Collective Consciousness -7.882
    Jesper -8.230
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -8.230
    Betfair -8.230
    FiveThirtyEight -8.290
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -8.399
    Anders T -9.340
    Agnostic -11.090


    Europa League
    ------------------------
    MH -17.748
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -19.132
    Futbolmetrix -20.230
    Collective Consciousness -20.578
    Jesper -20.590
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -21.017
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -21.596
    Agnostic -22.181
    FiveThirtyEight -22.260
    Werner Pichler -24.102
    Anders T -29.410

    FiveThirtyEight finishing below Agnostic would be ... interesting


    Conference League
    ------------------------------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -17.458
    Werner Pichler -17.800
    Futbolmetrix -18.176
    Collective Consciousness -18.363
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -18.430
    Jesper -18.612
    FiveThirtyEight -19.060
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -19.496
    MH -21.283
    Agnostic -22.181


    Werner, Jack C and I capture 8 of the 9 podium positions so far. First place? Who cares?



    Master spreadsheets available here: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

    Still there.

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Fri Apr 21 11:55:06 2023
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 10:15:29 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, February 17, 2023 at 11:34:05 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Standings after the QFs


    Champions League
    ------------------------------
    Werner Pichler -12.286
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -13.052
    Futbolmetrix -13.105
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -13.574
    Betfair -13.574
    Collective Consciousness -13.595
    Jesper -14.229
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -14.383
    MH -14.398
    FiveThirtyEight -14.473
    Anders T -14.951
    Agnostic -16.636

    Europa League
    ------------------------
    MH -21.810
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -23.643
    Futbolmetrix -24.152
    Collective Consciousness -25.080
    Jesper -25.326
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -25.970
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -26.077
    FiveThirtyEight -27.502
    Agnostic -27.726
    Werner Pichler -28.048
    Anders T -45.122

    Conference League
    ------------------------------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -21.758
    Werner Pichler -22.367
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -22.592
    Futbolmetrix -22.734
    Collective Consciousness -22.848
    FiveThirtyEight -23.407
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -23.503
    Jesper -24.081
    MH -25.869
    Agnostic -27.726

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Fri May 19 13:29:05 2023
    On Friday, April 21, 2023 at 2:55:08 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 10:15:29 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, February 17, 2023 at 11:34:05 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Standings after the QFs

    Standings after the semifinals:

    UCL
    ------
    Werner Pichler -15.270
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -15.322
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -16.251
    Betfair -16.251
    Collective Consciousness -16.301
    Futbolmetrix -16.314
    Jesper -16.819
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -16.854
    FiveThirtyEight -16.909
    MH -17.492
    Anders T -17.910
    Agnostic -19.408

    Very close at the top between Werner and Jack C, nobody in the Hall of Shame.


    UEL
    -----------
    MH -25.029
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -27.030
    Futbolmetrix -27.508
    Jesper -28.485
    Collective Consciousness -28.870
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -29.593
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -29.794
    Agnostic -30.498
    FiveThirtyEight -30.942
    Werner Pichler -35.890
    Anders T -61.538

    MH with a commanding lead, Anders, Werner and FiveThirtyEight in the Hall of Shame


    UECL
    ---------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -25.274
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -27.562
    Collective Consciousness -27.671.
    FiveThirtyEight -27.847
    Werner Pichler -27.902
    Jesper -28.030
    Futbolmetrix -28.177
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -29.903
    Agnostic -30.498
    MH -33.436

    Jack C again doing very well, MH can't carry his UEL form into the Conference League and falls into the Hall of Shame


    You can download the master spreadsheet here: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Thanks to all for playing. I will u on Mon Jun 12 04:38:27 2023
    On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 4:29:07 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Final SophCon standings:

    Champions League:
    -------------------------------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.319
    Werner Pichler -16.656
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -17.382
    Betfair -17.382
    Collective Consciousness -17.494
    Futbolmetrix -17.578
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.861
    FiveThirtyEight -17.902
    Jesper -18.206
    MH -18.878
    Anders T -19.209
    Agnostic -20.794

    Very tight race, Werner would have come out on top had we used Brier scoring, while yours truly would be in first place had we used Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS). Needless to say, Ranked Probability Scoring is by far the best method, and truly
    reflects predicting skills.

    Europa League
    -----------------------
    MH -26.415
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -28.151
    Futbolmetrix -28.878
    Jesper -29.871
    Collective Consciousness -30.208
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.944
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.206
    Agnostic -31.885
    FiveThirtyEight -32.192
    Werner Pichler -37.276
    Anders T -62.924

    MH takes this home convincingly (regardless of scoring method), embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.


    Conference League
    ------------------------------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -26.762
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.778
    Collective Consciousness -29.022
    FiveThirtyEight -29.091
    Werner Pichler -29.289
    Jesper -29.416
    Futbolmetrix -29.445
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.004
    Agnostic -31.885
    MH -34.823


    Another win for Jack C (again, regardless of methods). MH falls from the altar of first place to the dust of the Hall of Shame.



    Thanks to all for playing. I will update the master spreadsheet and write some additional summary comments on the usual Wordpress site.


    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

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  • From anders t@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jun 12 20:56:46 2023
    Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:

    Europa League
    -----------------------
    Anders T -62.924

    I put "all of my money" on the winner of Barca and Man United...

    --
    Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
    Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Werner Pichler@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Jun 13 02:42:24 2023
    On Monday, June 12, 2023 at 1:38:29 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 4:29:07 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Final SophCon standings:

    Champions League:
    -------------------------------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.319
    Werner Pichler -16.656
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -17.382
    Betfair -17.382
    Collective Consciousness -17.494
    Futbolmetrix -17.578
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.861
    FiveThirtyEight -17.902
    Jesper -18.206
    MH -18.878
    Anders T -19.209
    Agnostic -20.794

    Very tight race, Werner would have come out on top had we used Brier scoring,

    Mean Squared Error is where it's at, that's what I always say.


    while yours truly would be in first place had we used Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS). Needless to say, Ranked Probability
    Scoring is by far the best method, and truly reflects predicting skills.

    Europa League
    -----------------------
    MH -26.415
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -28.151
    Futbolmetrix -28.878
    Jesper -29.871
    Collective Consciousness -30.208
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.944
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.206
    Agnostic -31.885
    FiveThirtyEight -32.192
    Werner Pichler -37.276
    Anders T -62.924

    MH takes this home convincingly (regardless of scoring method), embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a
    couple of others.

    And to think that I used to ace the Europa League predictions. Don't even know where I went
    so spectacularly wrong. Probably Barcelona and Man United, like Anders (and 538 I wager).


    Conference League
    ------------------------------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -26.762
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.778
    Collective Consciousness -29.022
    FiveThirtyEight -29.091
    Werner Pichler -29.289
    Jesper -29.416
    Futbolmetrix -29.445
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.004
    Agnostic -31.885
    MH -34.823

    Another win for Jack C (again, regardless of methods). MH falls from the altar of first place to the dust of the Hall of Shame.



    Thanks to all for playing. I will update the master spreadsheet and write some additional summary comments on the usual
    Wordpress site.


    A question since I'm not very sure of the math - we obviously see lower scores in the CL predictions
    because there were fewer rounds and fewer matches, but if we're correcting for that - is the CL
    inherently easier to predict than EL and ECL? I'd think so.


    Ciao,
    Werner



    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From MH@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Jun 13 13:13:22 2023
    On 2023-06-12 05:38, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 4:29:07 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Final SophCon standings:

    Champions League:
    -------------------------------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.319
    Werner Pichler -16.656
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -17.382
    Betfair -17.382
    Collective Consciousness -17.494
    Futbolmetrix -17.578
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.861
    FiveThirtyEight -17.902
    Jesper -18.206
    MH -18.878
    Anders T -19.209
    Agnostic -20.794

    Very tight race, Werner would have come out on top had we used Brier scoring, while yours truly would be in first place had we used Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS). Needless to say, Ranked Probability Scoring is by far the best method, and truly
    reflects predicting skills.

    Europa League
    -----------------------
    MH -26.415
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -28.151
    Futbolmetrix -28.878
    Jesper -29.871
    Collective Consciousness -30.208
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.944
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.206
    Agnostic -31.885
    FiveThirtyEight -32.192
    Werner Pichler -37.276
    Anders T -62.924

    MH takes this home convincingly (regardless of scoring method), embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.


    Conference League
    ------------------------------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -26.762
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.778
    Collective Consciousness -29.022
    FiveThirtyEight -29.091
    Werner Pichler -29.289
    Jesper -29.416
    Futbolmetrix -29.445
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.004
    Agnostic -31.885
    MH -34.823

    Remarkably bad considering I had West Ham at 0.2 to win the whole thing,
    and Fiorentina at reasonable odds to make the final. Not obvious to me
    where I was most wrong.


    Another win for Jack C (again, regardless of methods). MH falls from the altar of first place to the dust of the Hall of Shame.



    Thanks to all for playing. I will update the master spreadsheet and write some additional summary comments on the usual Wordpress site.


    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From MH@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Jun 13 13:30:04 2023
    On 2023-06-12 05:38, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 4:29:07 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Final SophCon standings:

    Champions League:
    -------------------------------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.319
    Werner Pichler -16.656
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -17.382
    Betfair -17.382
    Collective Consciousness -17.494
    Futbolmetrix -17.578
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.861
    FiveThirtyEight -17.902
    Jesper -18.206
    MH -18.878
    Anders T -19.209
    Agnostic -20.794

    Very tight race, Werner would have come out on top had we used Brier scoring, while yours truly would be in first place had we used Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS). Needless to say, Ranked Probability Scoring is by far the best method, and truly
    reflects predicting skills.

    Europa League
    -----------------------
    MH -26.415
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -28.151
    Futbolmetrix -28.878
    Jesper -29.871
    Collective Consciousness -30.208
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.944
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.206
    Agnostic -31.885
    FiveThirtyEight -32.192
    Werner Pichler -37.276
    Anders T -62.924

    MH takes this home convincingly (regardless of scoring method), embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.


    Conference League
    ------------------------------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -26.762
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.778
    Collective Consciousness -29.022
    FiveThirtyEight -29.091
    Werner Pichler -29.289
    Jesper -29.416
    Futbolmetrix -29.445
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.004
    Agnostic -31.885
    MH -34.823


    Another win for Jack C (again, regardless of methods). MH falls from the altar of first place to the dust of the Hall of Shame.

    I am confused. I looked at you master sheet and the scores on it don't
    seem to correspond to the scores above. What am I missing?




    Thanks to all for playing. I will update the master spreadsheet and write some additional summary comments on the usual Wordpress site.


    https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Tue Jun 13 13:15:26 2023
    On Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 3:30:08 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:
    On 2023-06-12 05:38, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 4:29:07 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Final SophCon standings:

    Champions League:
    -------------------------------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.319
    Werner Pichler -16.656
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -17.382
    Betfair -17.382
    Collective Consciousness -17.494
    Futbolmetrix -17.578
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.861
    FiveThirtyEight -17.902
    Jesper -18.206
    MH -18.878
    Anders T -19.209
    Agnostic -20.794

    Very tight race, Werner would have come out on top had we used Brier scoring, while yours truly would be in first place had we used Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS). Needless to say, Ranked Probability Scoring is by far the best method, and truly
    reflects predicting skills.

    Europa League
    -----------------------
    MH -26.415
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -28.151
    Futbolmetrix -28.878
    Jesper -29.871
    Collective Consciousness -30.208
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.944
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.206
    Agnostic -31.885
    FiveThirtyEight -32.192
    Werner Pichler -37.276
    Anders T -62.924

    MH takes this home convincingly (regardless of scoring method), embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.


    Conference League
    ------------------------------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -26.762
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.778
    Collective Consciousness -29.022
    FiveThirtyEight -29.091
    Werner Pichler -29.289
    Jesper -29.416
    Futbolmetrix -29.445
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.004
    Agnostic -31.885
    MH -34.823


    Another win for Jack C (again, regardless of methods). MH falls from the altar of first place to the dust of the Hall of Shame.
    I am confused. I looked at you master sheet and the scores on it don't
    seem to correspond to the scores above. What am I missing?

    Did you update the master sheet? These should be the updated versions:

    UCL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/t1342w4191gxevt/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UCL2023_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0
    UEL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/x5b9oghmu1x4xrc/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UEL2023_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0
    UECL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/flzgeu1orizjeel/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UECL2023_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Werner Pichler on Tue Jun 13 13:39:50 2023
    On Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 5:42:26 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:

    A question since I'm not very sure of the math - we obviously see lower scores in the CL predictions
    because there were fewer rounds and fewer matches, but if we're correcting for that - is the CL
    inherently easier to predict than EL and ECL? I'd think so.


    Exp(log score/number of participants) = geometric mean of probabilities assigned to the even that actually took place.

    Collective Consciousness' geomean scores:
    UCL: 0.335
    UEL: 0.284
    UECL: 0.298

    Yes, this year it was easier to predict the Champions League relative to the other two competitions. I have the data and can easily check for previous years, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if this is broadly true in other years as well (even though
    there can be exceptions).

    I should note that Aggie's geomean scores are 0.272 (UCL) and 0.265 (UEL/UECL), so our collective wisdom is not all that better than Aggie...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Tue Jun 13 13:17:18 2023
    On Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 3:13:34 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:
    On 2023-06-12 05:38, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 4:29:07 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Final SophCon standings:

    Champions League:
    -------------------------------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.319
    Werner Pichler -16.656
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -17.382
    Betfair -17.382
    Collective Consciousness -17.494
    Futbolmetrix -17.578
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.861
    FiveThirtyEight -17.902
    Jesper -18.206
    MH -18.878
    Anders T -19.209
    Agnostic -20.794

    Very tight race, Werner would have come out on top had we used Brier scoring, while yours truly would be in first place had we used Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS). Needless to say, Ranked Probability Scoring is by far the best method, and truly
    reflects predicting skills.

    Europa League
    -----------------------
    MH -26.415
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -28.151
    Futbolmetrix -28.878
    Jesper -29.871
    Collective Consciousness -30.208
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.944
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.206
    Agnostic -31.885
    FiveThirtyEight -32.192
    Werner Pichler -37.276
    Anders T -62.924

    MH takes this home convincingly (regardless of scoring method), embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.


    Conference League
    ------------------------------
    Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -26.762
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.778
    Collective Consciousness -29.022
    FiveThirtyEight -29.091
    Werner Pichler -29.289
    Jesper -29.416
    Futbolmetrix -29.445
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.004
    Agnostic -31.885
    MH -34.823
    Remarkably bad considering I had West Ham at 0.2 to win the whole thing,
    and Fiorentina at reasonable odds to make the final. Not obvious to me
    where I was most wrong.

    What killed you (and many others) were Basel and Lech Poznan

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Mon Jun 26 13:18:31 2023
    On Monday, June 12, 2023 at 1:38:29 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Agnostic -31.885
    FiveThirtyEight -32.192

    embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.

    The embarrassment was too much to take for FiveThirtyEight, and they have retired their club soccer prediction model :-(

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/global-club-rankings/

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Werner Pichler@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Jun 27 04:20:02 2023
    On Monday, June 26, 2023 at 10:18:33 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Monday, June 12, 2023 at 1:38:29 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Agnostic -31.885
    FiveThirtyEight -32.192
    embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.

    The embarrassment was too much to take for FiveThirtyEight, and they have retired their club soccer prediction model :-(

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/global-club-rankings/

    538 is in turmoil, following budget cuts and layoffs. Nate Silver himself will leave soon
    or has already left. All their sports predictions have been discontinued.
    Blame Disney.

    Ciao,
    Werner

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Werner Pichler on Tue Jun 27 06:29:34 2023
    On Tuesday, June 27, 2023 at 1:20:04 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:

    The embarrassment was too much to take for FiveThirtyEight, and they have retired their club soccer prediction model :-(

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/global-club-rankings/
    538 is in turmoil, following budget cuts and layoffs. Nate Silver himself will leave soon
    or has already left. All their sports predictions have been discontinued.

    What, you mean that they are not shutting down because of the embarrassment of making the Hall of Shame? (Yeah, I knew that was the reason...)

    Blame Disney.

    Always.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)