Only 12 days to the World Cup, time to get your sophisticated predictions in!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/08/world-cup-2022-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
On Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 6:59:41 AM UTC, Futbolmetrix wrote:
Only 12 days to the World Cup, time to get your sophisticated predictions in!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/08/world-cup-2022-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
How does this work? and why is it probabilities and not definite predictions? etc.
On Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 2:10:51 PM UTC+1, Mark wrote:
On Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 6:59:41 AM UTC, Futbolmetrix wrote:
Only 12 days to the World Cup, time to get your sophisticated predictions in!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/08/world-cup-2022-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
How does this work? and why is it probabilities and not definite predictions? etc.Because that would be unsophisticated. This is the Sophisticated Prediction Contest.
On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 9:32:31 AM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 2:10:51 PM UTC+1, Mark wrote:
On Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 6:59:41 AM UTC, Futbolmetrix wrote:
Only 12 days to the World Cup, time to get your sophisticated predictions in!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/08/world-cup-2022-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
Mark's question is a good one, especially given the nature of a fairly complicated matrix such as the one for the World Cup. The strategy that I use goes something like this:How does this work? and why is it probabilities and not definite predictions? etc.Because that would be unsophisticated. This is the Sophisticated Prediction Contest.
1) First fill in the group probabilities: This is relatively easy, you just need 4 numbers that add up to 2. So, for example, you could have, for the probability of *elimination* in Round 1, the following:
Qatar 0.5
Netherlands 0.1
Ecuador 0.6
Senegal 0.8
2) Then fill in each row separately and make it up to one. For example:
p_R1 p_R16 p_QF p_SF p_LF p_WF
Qatar 0.5 0.3 0.15 0.03 0.01 0.01
I use a couple of rules of thumb for this step:
a) The numbers in a row should be either monotonically decreasing (as in the example above) or hump shaped (*), as in:
p_R1 p_R16 p_QF p_SF p_LF p_WF
Netherlands 0.1 0.35 0.35 0.12 0.05 0.03
(*) True for most teams with the exception of heavy favorites, who are more likely to win the final than lose it.
b) If you have teams that you think are of similar strength, use the same row. For example, I may think that Portugal is about the same strength as the Netherlands, in which case I just copy paste the Netherlands row into the Portugal row.
3) Once you have completed all the rows, this is where it gets difficult, because the numbers in the bottom row don't add up to what they should be. At this point, just do a lot of manual tinkering until things you get things right. Often, this takesthe following form:
- I have underestimate by quite a lot p_WF, and overestimated quite a lot p_QF. So start taking off some decimal points from each team's p_QF and add it to p_WF (or just for the teams for which it makes sense).
Usually, this whole process takes about 20 minutes.
There are of course other possibilities:
1. Look online for a source that makes a probabilistic forecast, and copy that as is, or with slight tinkering.
2. Run your own computer model. They are a dime a dozen, nowadays...
Yeah, I usually regard any final match as basically a toss-up, so generally assign the same probabilities to both winning and losing the final.
On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 6:50:05 PM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 9:32:31 AM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote: >>> On Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 2:10:51 PM UTC+1, Mark wrote:
Mark's question is a good one, especially given the nature of a fairly complicated matrix such as the one for the World Cup. The strategy that I use goes something like this:On Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 6:59:41 AM UTC, Futbolmetrix wrote:Because that would be unsophisticated. This is the Sophisticated Prediction Contest.
Only 12 days to the World Cup, time to get your sophisticated predictions in!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/08/world-cup-2022-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
How does this work? and why is it probabilities and not definite predictions? etc.
1) First fill in the group probabilities: This is relatively easy, you just need 4 numbers that add up to 2. So, for example, you could have, for the probability of *elimination* in Round 1, the following:
Qatar 0.5
Netherlands 0.1
Ecuador 0.6
Senegal 0.8
2) Then fill in each row separately and make it up to one. For example:
p_R1 p_R16 p_QF p_SF p_LF p_WF
Qatar 0.5 0.3 0.15 0.03 0.01 0.01
I use a couple of rules of thumb for this step:
a) The numbers in a row should be either monotonically decreasing (as in the example above) or hump shaped (*), as in:
p_R1 p_R16 p_QF p_SF p_LF p_WF
Netherlands 0.1 0.35 0.35 0.12 0.05 0.03
(*) True for most teams with the exception of heavy favorites, who are more likely to win the final than lose it.
Yeah, I usually regard any final match as basically a toss-up, so generally assign the same probabilities to both winning and losing the final.
I don't know how common that is, and whether or not that has hurt my chances in these competitions, but it has made filling out the matrix a tad easier.
Ciao,
Werner
Only 12 days to the World Cup, time to get your sophisticated predictions in!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/08/world-cup-2022-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
Em terça-feira, 8 de novembro de 2022 às 03:59:41 UTC-3, Futbolmetrix escreveu:
Only 12 days to the World Cup, time to get your sophisticated predictions in!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/08/world-cup-2022-sophisticated-prediction-contest/538 have published their predictions:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/
On Friday, November 18, 2022 at 2:56:36 PM UTC-5, jesus...@gmail.com wrote:you just invest in the slightly older 12 >and 13 year olds that have a physical advantage over their peers in their same age category?)
Em terça-feira, 8 de novembro de 2022 às 03:59:41 UTC-3, Futbolmetrix escreveu:
Only 12 days to the World Cup, time to get your sophisticated predictions in!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/08/world-cup-2022-sophisticated-prediction-contest/538 have published their predictions:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/Yes, included it already. List of participants so far:
Spreadsheet number Name
S01 Agnostic
S02 KU Leuven
S03 Swiss Football Data
S04 goalprojection
S05 KonakaLab
S06 InPlayFootballTips
S07 Jesus Petry
S08 Luke Benz
S09 FiveThirtyEight
S10 Futbolmetrix
S11 Betfair
s12 AIrgentina
s13 MH
s14 Zander (Tournament Structure)
I have done the calculation for all my usual bots and more. Haven't uploaded them yet. But expect to see the following:
Elo
Transfermarkt
ClubElo/ClubTM <-- defending champion
econ0
econ1
-----------------------
Then I will probably also add the following
scrabble (based on each team's official name scrabble score, in strong competition with Aggie and the econs for the dumbest prediction)
gk <-- best goalkeeper (suggested by milivella)
def <-- best four defenders (suggested by milivella)
mid <-- best four midfielders (suggested by milivella)
fwd <-- best 2 forwards (suggested by milivella)
And maybe these ones too:
adjusted tm: adjusts tm value for age and position (a 50m 35-year old Messi is probably better than a 50m 25 year old Richarlison)
age
experience (number of caps)
goal experience (number of goals)
q1bias (the share of players born in quarter 1 of the year out of the total number of players >born in q1 or q4 - I think this is an interesting measure of a nation's scouting ability at youth >level: are you really able to pick the best talents, or do
Working through my first SophnCon entry.
The group stage probabilities all add up to 2.
Each team’s total probability adds up to 1.
So far so good.
But some of the columns below say 1.9 (for example) when the spreadsheet says they should add up to 2.
Is this a problem? Out of interest what is the reasoning for those columns needing to be 2?
I won’t have a chance to amend this tomorrow so could I please send mine over with the above errors subject to being tinkered with to get the columns to balance after Qatar v Ecuador?
On Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 2:10:10 PM UTC-5, Real Mardin wrote:
Working through my first SophnCon entry.
The group stage probabilities all add up to 2.Good!
Each team’s total probability adds up to 1.
So far so good.Even better!
But some of the columns below say 1.9 (for example) when the spreadsheet says they should add up to 2.
Is this a problem? Out of interest what is the reasoning for those columns needing to be 2?
Yes, it is a bit of a problem. Because the round of 16 is crossed (A1 plays B2 and B1 plays A2), there have to be exactly 2 teams that qualify to the QFs out of each pair of groups (A-B, C-D, E-F, and G-H).
I won’t have a chance to amend this tomorrow so could I please send mine over with the above errors subject to being tinkered with to get the columns to balance after Qatar v Ecuador?Hmm...I'll see what I can do. But I'm OK if you send in your predictions a bit late, as long as you pinky swear that you did not
let the results of the first match influence your choices.
On Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 8:44:20 PM UTC, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 2:10:10 PM UTC-5, Real Mardin wrote:
Working through my first SophnCon entry.
The group stage probabilities all add up to 2.Good!
Each team’s total probability adds up to 1.
So far so good.Even better!
But some of the columns below say 1.9 (for example) when the spreadsheet says they should add up to 2.
Is this a problem? Out of interest what is the reasoning for those columns needing to be 2?
Yes, it is a bit of a problem. Because the round of 16 is crossed (A1 plays B2 and B1 plays A2), there have to be exactly 2 teams that qualify to the QFs out of each pair of groups (A-B, C-D, E-F, and G-H).Right, that makes sense now. Thanks for explaining.
Thanks, I'll see what I can do!I won’t have a chance to amend this tomorrow so could I please send mine over with the above errors subject to being tinkered with to get the columns to balance after Qatar v Ecuador?Hmm...I'll see what I can do. But I'm OK if you send in your predictions a bit late, as long as you pinky swear that you did not
let the results of the first match influence your choices.
scrabble (based on each team's official name scrabble score, in strong competition with Aggie and the econs for the dumbest prediction)
gk <-- best goalkeeper (suggested by milivella)
def <-- best four defenders (suggested by milivella)
mid <-- best four midfielders (suggested by milivella)
fwd <-- best 2 forwards (suggested by milivella)
adjusted tm: adjusts tm value for age and position
(a 50m 35-year old Messi is probably better than a 50m 25 year old Richarlison)
Futbolmetrix:
I suggested just one rating! (best XI = best gk + best 4 defs + best 4
mids + best 2 fwds)
Your interpretation is more interesting, though.
(a 50m 35-year old Messi is probably better than a 50m 25 year old Richarlison)Maybe I shouldn't claim the autorship of this idea, after all...
Only 12 days to the World Cup, time to get your sophisticated predictions in!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/08/world-cup-2022-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
57 Anders T -33.615
On Friday, November 25, 2022 at 8:14:22 AM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
Futbolmetrix:
I suggested just one rating! (best XI = best gk + best 4 defs + best 4
mids + best 2 fwds)
Your interpretation is more interesting, though.
To be honest, I'm not so sure the "best n" is the right approach. There will be subs, tactical changes, etc. Maybe it should have been just the "best DF", "best MF" etc.
(a 50m 35-year old Messi is probably better than a 50m 25 year old Richarlison)Maybe I shouldn't claim the autorship of this idea, after all...
Yeah, yeah, enjoy your 15 minutes of glory.
Let's not forget that for about 70 minutes yesterday Richarlison looked like a cross between Serginho 1982, Fred 2014 and Gabriel Jesus 2018 in terms of sheer ineptitude.
On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 9:32:31 AM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 2:10:51 PM UTC+1, Mark wrote:
On Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 6:59:41 AM UTC, Futbolmetrix wrote:
Only 12 days to the World Cup, time to get your sophisticated predictions in!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/08/world-cup-2022-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
Mark's question is a good one, especially given the nature of a fairly complicated matrix such as the one for the World Cup. The strategy that I use goes something like this:How does this work? and why is it probabilities and not definite predictions? etc.Because that would be unsophisticated. This is the Sophisticated Prediction Contest.
1) First fill in the group probabilities: This is relatively easy, you just need 4 numbers that add up to 2. So, for example, you could have, for the probability of *elimination* in Round 1, the following:
Qatar 0.5
Netherlands 0.1
Ecuador 0.6
Senegal 0.8
2) Then fill in each row separately and make it up to one. For example:
p_R1 p_R16 p_QF p_SF p_LF p_WF
Qatar 0.5 0.3 0.15 0.03 0.01 0.01
I use a couple of rules of thumb for this step:
a) The numbers in a row should be either monotonically decreasing (as in the example above) or hump shaped (*), as in:
p_R1 p_R16 p_QF p_SF p_LF p_WF
Netherlands 0.1 0.35 0.35 0.12 0.05 0.03
(*) True for most teams with the exception of heavy favorites, who are more likely to win the final than lose it.
b) If you have teams that you think are of similar strength, use the same row. For example, I may think that Portugal is about the same strength as the Netherlands, in which case I just copy paste the Netherlands row into the Portugal row.
3) Once you have completed all the rows, this is where it gets difficult, because the numbers in the bottom row don't add up to what they should be. At this point, just do a lot of manual tinkering until things you get things right. Often, this takesthe following form:
- I have underestimate by quite a lot p_WF, and overestimated quite a lot p_QF. So start taking off some decimal points from each team's p_QF and add it to p_WF (or just for the teams for which it makes sense).
Usually, this whole process takes about 20 minutes.
There are of course other possibilities:
1. Look online for a source that makes a probabilistic forecast, and copy that as is, or with slight tinkering.
2. Run your own computer model. They are a dime a dozen, nowadays...
Assiomatico, the hardest time I’ve had: Convincing people that there ain’t NO absolute certainty. As I put it: “Absolute certainty is absolute absurdity”. The Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG) proves it beyond every shred of reasonabledoubt.
Still, you step one pace over the fundamental absurdity. You “calculate” a “probability” of 0.5+0.1+0.6+0.8. “Result”: 2.0. Probability never reaches 1.0, amico! If it would reach 1.0, then there would be infinity, or perfection, … orabsolute certainty! See it? You go 2.0 times beyond ABSURDITY!
• https://saliu.com/Saliu2.htm
• Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG): Theory of Probability, Mathematics, Degree of Certainty, Chance.
On Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 1:59:41 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
Only 12 days to the World Cup, time to get your sophisticated predictions in!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/08/world-cup-2022-sophisticated-prediction-contest/Standings after MD1: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/25/wc2022-sophcon-standings-after-day-1/
Link to Master spreadsheet: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/25/wc2022-sophcon-the-master-spreadsheet/
On Friday, November 25, 2022 at 8:31:20 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 1:59:41 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
Only 12 days to the World Cup, time to get your sophisticated predictions in!
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/08/world-cup-2022-sophisticated-prediction-contest/Standings after MD1: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/25/wc2022-sophcon-standings-after-day-1/
Link to Master spreadsheet: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/25/wc2022-sophcon-the-master-spreadsheet/
Standings after Match Day 2:
1 Jesus Petry -19.243 <--- Up RSS!
2 Defenders (by FM) -19.547 <-- Defense wins championships! (or at least does well after 2 match days!)
3 Simon G -20.096
4 Volkan Riolo -20.273
5 Luke Benz -20.300
6 FiveThirtyEight -20.326
7 Collective Consciousness -20.349
8 Bookmaker Consensus Model (by AZ) -20.379
9 Dan Levy -20.399
10 Midfielders (by FM) -20.448
11 cuca -20.473
12 KU Leuven -20.490
13 Patrick Flynn -20.523
14 tm (by FM) -20.568
15 El Pais -20.602
16 Zander (Tournament Structure) -20.647
17 Middle link (by FM) -20.718
18 Stephen K -20.721
19 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -20.820
20 goalprojection -20.832
21 Silver Aurora -20.835
22 Jesper -20.915
23 TransferMarkt (by FM) -20.948
24 Futbolmetrix -20.977
25 Betfair -21.042
26 Elo (by FM) -21.251
27 ClubElo/ClubTM (by FM) -21.319
28 Opta Analyst -21.325
29 Strongest link (by FM) -21.337
30 Alessandro Riolo -21.539
31 Goalkeepers (by FM) -21.548
32 Hybrid Machine Learning (by AZ) -21.645
33 Econ1 (by FM) -21.787
34 Q1_Bias (by FM) -21.908
35 KonakaLab -21.936
36 AIrgentina -21.996
37 FoG -22.181
38 Agnostic -22.181
39 Weakest link (by FM) -22.211
40 InPlayFootballTips -22.255
41 Anders T -22.344
42 NT-ELO predictions (by Ed) -22.516
43 dopemodels.info -22.560
44 Historic Match Model (by AZ) -22.786
45 Keanu J -22.875
46 Lléo -22.906
47 MH -22.965
48 Econ0 (by FM) -23.078
49 Footballgenius -23.299
50 FIFA (by FM) -23.371
51 Fantomen -23.403
52 Werner Pichler -23.602
53 Mark -23.983
54 Forwards (by FM) -24.257
55 Swiss Football Data -25.209
56 Scrabble (by FM) -27.891
57 Goal Experience (by FM) -30.514
58 Experience (by FM) -36.811
Also available here: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/28/wc2022-sophcon-standings-after-match-day-2/
Em segunda-feira, 28 de novembro de 2022 às 19:52:39 UTC-3, Futbolmetrix escreveu:
Also available here: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/28/wc2022-sophcon-standings-after-match-day-2/Senegal going through instead of Ecuador put Goalkeepers past me.
On Tuesday, November 29, 2022 at 1:02:40 PM UTC-5, jesus... wrote:
Em segunda-feira, 28 de novembro de 2022 às 19:52:39 UTC-3, Futbolmetrix escreveu:What's even worse is that milivella's cuca is in third place. We'll never hear the end of it from him...
Also available here: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/11/28/wc2022-sophcon-standings-after-match-day-2/Senegal going through instead of Ecuador put Goalkeepers past me.
After the end of Group B, my army of TransferMarkt based predictions is now crowding the top 10, but cuca in effective third place is just bad. Jesper has snuck into the top 10, Jesus has dropped out (MatchDay2 is an hors-de concours entry that assumesperfect knowledge of everything that happened in MDs 1 and 2, and then uses Elo)
1 MatchDay 2 -15.404
2 Goalkeepers (by FM) -17.042
3 Defenders (by FM) -17.568
4 cuca -17.828
5 Middle link (by FM) -18.007
6 TransferMarkt (by FM) -18.029
7 Jesper -18.143
8 Midfielders (by FM) -18.292
9 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -18.400
10 Dan Levy -18.571
11 ClubElo/ClubTM (by FM) -18.663
Futbolmetrix:
Why haven't you posted the ranking after the end of Group D? :D
On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 11:32:22 AM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
Futbolmetrix:
Why haven't you posted the ranking after the end of Group D? :D
Weren't they exactly the same as the ones posted the day before? Argentina, Poland, France and Australia were the qualified teams prior to the Wednesday matches.
Translation for the uninitated: "I didn't want to write that CuCa kept
its place on the podium."
On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 6:54:43 PM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
Translation for the uninitated: "I didn't want to write that CuCa kept
its place on the podium."
Ridiculous theory!
Here are the top 10 after the end of today's Group H matches:
1 MatchDay 2 (hors de concours) -16.549
2 Red -16.859
3 Goalkeepers (by FM) -17.584
4 Jesper -17.701
5 Futbolmetrix -18.300
6 FiveThirtyEight -18.481
7 Midfielders (by FM) -18.488
8 Weakest link (by FM) -18.594
9 cuca -18.750
10 TransferMarkt (by FM) -18.921
11 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -18.979
Red? This one wasn't in the master spreadsheet that I've downloaded...
On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:17:09 PM UTC-5, jesus...@gmail.com wrote:
Red? This one wasn't in the master spreadsheet that I've downloaded...Late submission (trusted source, so I accepted it)
On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:25:55 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 12:16:38 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 5:36:33 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:25:55 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:Intermediate standings after FRA-POL (intermediate here means score after R16 for teams that have already played, and score after R1 for the others):
(top 10)
1 Jesper -18.891
Our great and enlightened leader has given Morocco zero probability of advancing past the round of 16.
On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 5:36:33 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:25:55 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:Intermediate standings after FRA-POL (intermediate here means score after R16 for teams that have already played, and score after R1 for the others):
(top 10)
1 Jesper -18.891
On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 6:32:24 PM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 12:16:38 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 5:36:33 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:25:55 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:Intermediate standings after FRA-POL (intermediate here means score after R16 for teams that have already played, and score after R1 for the others):
(top 10)
1 Jesper -18.891
Our great and enlightened leader has given Morocco zero probability of advancing past the round of 16.Thanks!
What additional excitement for the upcoming shoot-out!
On Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 12:16:38 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 5:36:33 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:25:55 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:Intermediate standings after FRA-POL (intermediate here means score after R16 for teams that have already played, and score after R1 for the others):
(top 10)
1 Jesper -18.891Our great and enlightened leader has given Morocco zero probability of advancing past the round of 16.
Intermediate top-12 after MOR-ESP:
1 Red -25.478
2 Jesus Petry -26.044
3 Goalkeepers (by FM) -26.140
4 AIrgentina -26.384
5 Stephen K -26.499
6 FIFA (by FM) -26.536
7 FiveThirtyEight -26.604
8 KU Leuven -26.871
9 cuca -26.905
10 Keanu J -26.967
11 El Pais -26.993
12 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -27.002
There is nothing under the sun that does not suck.
Futbolmetrix:
Intermediate top-12 after MOR-ESP:
On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 8:47:35 PM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
Futbolmetrix:
Intermediate top-12 after MOR-ESP:
Full standings after the QFs:
Goalkeepers (by FM) -34.063
Defenders (by FM) -34.088
Midfielders (by FM) -34.714
Agnostic -38.816
Forwards (by FM) -38.866
On Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 1:37:00 AM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 8:47:35 PM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
Futbolmetrix:
Intermediate top-12 after MOR-ESP:
Full standings after the QFs:
Goalkeepers (by FM) -34.063I wonder if there's some old adage or other about this sort of thing.
Defenders (by FM) -34.088
Midfielders (by FM) -34.714
Agnostic -38.816
Forwards (by FM) -38.866
Ciao,
Werner
On Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 1:37:00 AM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 8:47:35 PM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
Futbolmetrix:
Intermediate top-12 after MOR-ESP:
Full standings after the QFs:
Goalkeepers (by FM) -34.063
Defenders (by FM) -34.088
Midfielders (by FM) -34.714
Agnostic -38.816
Forwards (by FM) -38.866
On Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 1:37:00 AM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 8:47:35 PM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
Futbolmetrix:
Intermediate top-12 after MOR-ESP:
Full standings after the QFs:
Goalkeepers (by FM) -34.063I wonder if there's some old adage or other about this sort of thing.
Defenders (by FM) -34.088
Midfielders (by FM) -34.714
Agnostic -38.816
Forwards (by FM) -38.866
45 Lléo -41.278
46 Werner Pichler -41.281
47 Historic Match Model (by AZ) -41.506
48 Agnostic -41.589
52 Anders T -46.315
On Wednesday, December 14, 2022 at 8:49:44 PM UTC-5, Lléo wrote:
And these are the final SophCon standings:
1 Red -36.500
2 Jesus Petry -36.900
3 Keanu J -37.389
4 Stephen K -37.554
5 FIFA (by FM) -37.656
6 AIrgentina -37.679
7 Collective Consciousness -37.763
8 Zander (Tournament Structure) -37.786
47 Werner Pichler -42.668
48 FoG -42.975
49 Agnostic -42.975
Congrats to Red, to Jesus P for a very prestigious second place, and to Jesper, who would have won the whole thing if we had used a different scoring rule (that doesn't penalize as much putting a zero on events
that eventually don't happen).
On Wednesday, December 14, 2022 at 8:49:44 PM UTC-5, Lléo wrote:
And these are the final SophCon standings:
1 Red -36.500
2 Jesus Petry -36.900
3 Keanu J -37.389
4 Stephen K -37.554
5 FIFA (by FM) -37.656
6 AIrgentina -37.679
7 Collective Consciousness -37.763
8 Zander (Tournament Structure) -37.786
9 Bookmaker Consensus Model (by AZ) -38.003
10 KU Leuven -38.058
11 Goalkeepers (by FM) -38.062
12 Defenders (by FM) -38.120
13 El Pais -38.129
14 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -38.131
15 Futbolmetrix -38.206
16 Weakest link (by FM) -38.242
17 FiveThirtyEight -38.275
18 cuca -38.294
19 Patrick Flynn -38.349
20 TransferMarkt (by FM) -38.373
21 Opta Analyst -38.393
22 Betfair -38.483
23 Strongest link (by FM) -38.754
24 Simon G -38.776
25 dopemodels.info -38.801
26 Middle link (by FM) -38.857
27 Midfielders (by FM) -38.859
28 Luke Benz -38.931
29 Hybrid Machine Learning (by AZ) -38.949
30 goalprojection -38.960
31 Elo (by FM) -38.979
32 InPlayFootballTips -39.326
33 ClubElo/ClubTM (by FM) -39.364
34 NT-ELO predictions (by Ed) -39.516
35 Silver Aurora -39.517
36 Footballgenius -39.535
37 Fantomen -39.623
38 Volkan Riolo -39.931
39 tm (by FM) -40.043
40 MH -40.201
41 KonakaLab -40.371
42 Econ1 (by FM) -41.248
43 Swiss Football Data -42.002
44 Forwards (by FM) -42.534
45 Historic Match Model (by AZ) -42.613
46 Lléo -42.664
47 Werner Pichler -42.668
48 FoG -42.975
49 Agnostic -42.975
50 Alessandro Riolo -43.344
51 Econ0 (by FM) -43.661
52 Anders T -46.315
53 Q1_Bias (by FM) -50.264
54 Scrabble (by FM) -50.506
55 Goal Experience (by FM) -51.133
56 Experience (by FM) -58.006
57 Jesper -102.784
58 Dan Levy -106.694
59 Mark -115.570
Also, the way Goalkeepers was calculated was...erm...not great. It's the raw TransferMarkt value of the highest rated goalkeeper: so, Germany was given Ter Stegen's value, and France Areola's value. If I had adjusted by age (as I should have)
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