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  • The John De Lange Sophisticated Prediction Contest: European Cups 2022-

    From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 5 04:04:45 2022
  • From anders t@21:1/5 to All on Tue Sep 6 08:04:41 2022
    Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:
    You know the drill.

    Spreadsheets here:
    UCL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/n44kix3eba9dgye/spc_ucl2022-23_GroupStage.xlsx?raw=1

    UEL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/rmkvtrtj5iijr61/spc_el2022-23_GroupStage.xlsx?raw=1

    UECL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/shbp97qnr03xik7/spc_confl2022-23_GroupStage.xlsx?raw=1


    Send your entries to futbolmetrix@yahoo.com

    Deadline?


    --
    Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
    Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to anders t on Tue Sep 6 02:40:17 2022
    On Tuesday, September 6, 2022 at 2:05:03 AM UTC-4, anders t wrote:
    Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:
    You know the drill.

    Spreadsheets here:
    UCL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/n44kix3eba9dgye/spc_ucl2022-23_GroupStage.xlsx?raw=1

    UEL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/rmkvtrtj5iijr61/spc_el2022-23_GroupStage.xlsx?raw=1

    UECL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/shbp97qnr03xik7/spc_confl2022-23_GroupStage.xlsx?raw=1


    Send your entries to futbol...@yahoo.com
    Deadline?

    Today's first match for the UCL, Thursday before kickoff of the first match for the UEL and UECL.

    But I will accept late entries if you pinky-swear that you did not let the results affect your predictions.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Sep 6 03:16:25 2022
    On Tuesday, September 6, 2022 at 5:40:19 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    But I will accept late entries if you pinky-swear that you did not let the results affect your predictions.

    Entries so far:

    UCL:
    Agnostic
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    MH

    UEL:
    Agnostic

    UECL:
    Agnostic

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From MH@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Sep 6 10:38:33 2022
    On 2022-09-06 04:16, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 6, 2022 at 5:40:19 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    But I will accept late entries if you pinky-swear that you did not let the results affect your predictions.

    Entries so far:

    UCL:
    Agnostic
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    MH

    I filled mine out almost as fast as Aggie did, I think. I am sure there
    will be consequences.


    UEL:
    Agnostic

    UECL:
    Agnostic

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Wed Sep 7 03:28:38 2022
    On Tuesday, September 6, 2022 at 12:38:36 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:
    On 2022-09-06 04:16, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tuesday, September 6, 2022 at 5:40:19 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    But I will accept late entries if you pinky-swear that you did not let the results affect your predictions.

    Entries so far:

    UCL:
    ----------
    Agnostic
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    MH
    Werner Pichler
    Volkan Riolo
    Alessandro Riolo
    Anders T
    Fantomen
    wdnr
    Jesus Petry
    Club Elo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix)
    Wage Bill (by Futbolmetrix)
    Jack C (13Nil)
    Collective Consciousness


    UEL
    ------
    Agnostic
    Alessandro Riolo
    Volkan Riolo
    wdnr
    Jesus Petry
    Jack C


    UECL
    ------
    Agnostic
    Alessandro Riolo
    Volkan Riolo
    wdnr
    Jesus Petry
    Jack C

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Thu Sep 8 06:19:51 2022
    On Wednesday, September 7, 2022 at 6:28:39 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Entries so far:

    UCL:
    ----------
    Agnostic
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    MH
    Werner Pichler
    Volkan Riolo
    Alessandro Riolo
    Anders T
    Fantomen
    wdnr
    Jesus Petry
    Club Elo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix)
    Wage Bill (by Futbolmetrix)
    Jack C (13Nil)
    Collective Consciousness

    Also EuroClubIndex, still to be added to the spreadsheet



    UEL
    ------
    Agnostic
    Alessandro Riolo
    Volkan Riolo
    wdnr
    Jesus Petry
    Jack C
    Anders T
    MH
    Futbolmetrix
    EuroClubIndex
    FiveThirtyEight and Bots to follow.




    UECL
    ------
    Agnostic
    Alessandro Riolo
    Volkan Riolo
    wdnr
    Jesus Petry
    Jack C
    MH
    Fantomen
    Futbolmetrix
    Anders T
    FiveThirtyEight and BOTs to follow

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Fri Sep 9 08:10:06 2022
    On Monday, September 5, 2022 at 7:04:47 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    You know the drill.

    Standings after MD1

    UCL
    -----------------
    Alessandro Riolo -43.26936536
    FiveThirtyEight -44.08211999
    Agnostic -44.36141956
    Futbolmetrix -45.60496061
    Collective Consciousness -45.95595159
    Volkan Riolo -46.92604208
    Wage Bill (by Futbolmetrix) -46.98089677
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -47.25279661
    Club Elo (by Futbolmetrix) -47.54249672
    EuroClubIndex -48.86100893
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -49.45317053
    wdnr -49.51363356
    Jack C (13Nil) -52.67561092
    Werner Pichler -53.75880695
    Jesus Petry -54.6122382
    MH -54.70134153
    Fantomen -55.34506138
    Anders T -62.51244543

    Europa League
    ---------------------------
    Volkan Riolo -41.58035545
    FiveThirtyEight -42.07823931
    Werner Pichler -42.4695176
    CollectiveConsciousness -42.81266429
    Alessandro Riolo -42.83056614
    Futbolmetrix -44.26273353
    Agnostic -44.36141956
    MH -45.36009186
    EuroClubIndex -46.17186977
    Jesus Petry -46.26433844
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -47.0937757
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -47.255261
    wdnr -47.66496807
    Anders T -55.29293165
    Jack C (13Nil) -57.06132987
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -58.70711124


    UECL
    --------------------------------------------
    CollectiveConsciousness -39.49751997
    wdnr -39.91643856
    EuroClubIndex -40.08986683
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -40.41310708
    Jesus Petry -40.5642172
    Anders T -40.64768884
    Alessandro Riolo -41.20160181
    Volkan Riolo -41.47087122
    Werner Pichler -43.10390609
    MH -44.22887562
    Agnostic -44.36141956
    FiveThirtyEight -45.55912061
    Fantomen -46.99775529
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -48.60574024
    Jack C (13Nil) -51.7676812
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -52.31085986
    Futbolmetrix -57.01108601

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Fri Sep 9 08:58:34 2022
    On Friday, September 9, 2022 at 11:10:07 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Monday, September 5, 2022 at 7:04:47 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    You know the drill.

    Standings after MD1

    Link to master spreadsheets: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/09/09/european-cups-sophcon-list-of-entrants-and-master-spreadsheets/

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Oct 11 05:13:12 2022
    On Friday, September 9, 2022 at 11:58:36 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, September 9, 2022 at 11:10:07 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Monday, September 5, 2022 at 7:04:47 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    You know the drill.

    Standings after MD1
    Link to master spreadsheets: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/09/09/european-cups-sophcon-list-of-entrants-and-master-spreadsheets/

    Standings at the halfway point:

    Champions League:
    --------------------------------
    MH -31.77238497
    Jack C (13Nil) -34.3588563
    FiveThirtyEight -34.36854408
    Collective Consciousness -36.23373494
    Futbolmetrix -36.95751518
    Jesus Petry -37.66311538
    EuroClubIndex -37.79148656
    Club Elo (by Futbolmetrix) -38.18566086
    Alessandro Riolo -39.55139633
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -39.83112278
    Wage Bill (by Futbolmetrix) -40.1447748
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -40.52447315
    wdnr -40.5874316
    Werner Pichler -41.39518365
    Anders T -41.41990005
    Volkan Riolo -43.00334809
    Agnostic -44.36141956
    Fantomen -45.94917108


    Europa League
    -------------------------
    Werner Pichler -37.50875239
    FiveThirtyEight -38.97435615
    Futbolmetrix -39.84434719
    CollectiveConsciousness -40.12407847
    EuroClubIndex -40.72551049
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -41.06677086
    MH -41.62816336
    Volkan Riolo -41.98582056
    Anders T -42.27601106
    Alessandro Riolo -42.99835034
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -43.36250049
    wdnr -43.77761734
    Agnostic -44.36141956
    Jesus Petry -47.71264503
    Jack C (13Nil) -48.87697779
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -57.70111718


    Conference League
    -------------------------------
    Jesus Petry -37.18250671
    Werner Pichler -38.4697813
    wdnr -39.09277675
    CollectiveConsciousness -40.23907123
    Fantomen -41.34242431
    EuroClubIndex -43.19650399
    Anders T -43.3073425
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -43.4632652
    FiveThirtyEight -43.60160867
    Agnostic -44.36141956
    Alessandro Riolo -45.92465707
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -48.34041959
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -48.76884948
    Volkan Riolo -50.63739439
    MH -51.489358
    Jack C (13Nil) -53.24822314
    Futbolmetrix -70.09388663

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Tue Oct 11 06:20:23 2022
    On Tuesday, September 6, 2022 at 12:38:36 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:
    On 2022-09-06 04:16, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    UCL:
    Agnostic
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    MH
    I filled mine out almost as fast as Aggie did, I think. I am sure there
    will be consequences.

    Yes, you are in first place with a healthy lead over the field.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Fri Oct 28 14:11:28 2022
    On Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 8:13:14 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Standings at the halfway point:

    Standings with one match day to go

    Champions League
    --------------------------------
    MH -26.9511717
    Jack C (13Nil) -29.69911709
    Futbolmetrix -31.66243185
    Collective Consciousness -32.02258169
    FiveThirtyEight -32.12773256
    EuroClubIndex -32.20629116
    Jesus Petry -32.49199015
    Club Elo (by Futbolmetrix) -32.83498634
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -33.13256139
    Wage Bill (by Futbolmetrix) -33.81095711
    Werner Pichler -34.92035547
    wdnr -35.57529571
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -36.72150537
    Fantomen -38.15713041
    Alessandro Riolo -39.99279641
    Anders T -40.04699203
    Volkan Riolo -40.71318552
    Agnostic -44.36141956


    Europa League
    --------------------------
    Werner Pichler -37.80815793
    FiveThirtyEight -38.38507031
    CollectiveConsciousness -38.79811904
    MH -38.819207
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -38.91451735
    EuroClubIndex -39.27930164
    Futbolmetrix -39.95197785
    Anders T -41.2951818
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -41.76905621
    Jack C (13Nil) -41.9304663
    Alessandro Riolo -41.97611103
    Jesus Petry -42.91350267
    wdnr -42.96333128
    Agnostic -44.36141956
    Volkan Riolo -45.07686301
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -57.25619762


    Conference League
    -------------------------------
    EuroClubIndex -35.36011077
    Futbolmetrix -36.46283474
    Jesus Petry -36.48265372
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -36.51230514
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -36.80927811
    Werner Pichler -37.33075146
    wdnr -37.61520676
    CollectiveConsciousness -37.68870919
    FiveThirtyEight -38.8271458
    Anders T -41.22827599
    Alessandro Riolo -41.92610987
    Fantomen -42.80957232
    MH -43.51471792
    Agnostic -44.36141956
    Volkan Riolo -48.70950275
    Jack C (13Nil) -51.92588406
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -52.9500325

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Werner Pichler@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Sat Oct 29 00:14:34 2022
    On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 11:11:31 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 8:13:14 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Standings at the halfway point:
    Standings with one match day to go

    Champions League
    --------------------------------
    MH -26.9511717
    Jack C (13Nil) -29.69911709
    Futbolmetrix -31.66243185
    Collective Consciousness -32.02258169
    FiveThirtyEight -32.12773256
    EuroClubIndex -32.20629116
    Jesus Petry -32.49199015
    Club Elo (by Futbolmetrix) -32.83498634
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -33.13256139
    Wage Bill (by Futbolmetrix) -33.81095711
    Werner Pichler -34.92035547
    wdnr -35.57529571
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -36.72150537
    Fantomen -38.15713041
    Alessandro Riolo -39.99279641
    Anders T -40.04699203
    Volkan Riolo -40.71318552
    Agnostic -44.36141956


    Europa League
    --------------------------
    Werner Pichler -37.80815793
    FiveThirtyEight -38.38507031
    CollectiveConsciousness -38.79811904
    MH -38.819207
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -38.91451735
    EuroClubIndex -39.27930164
    Futbolmetrix -39.95197785
    Anders T -41.2951818
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -41.76905621
    Jack C (13Nil) -41.9304663
    Alessandro Riolo -41.97611103
    Jesus Petry -42.91350267
    wdnr -42.96333128
    Agnostic -44.36141956
    Volkan Riolo -45.07686301
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -57.25619762


    Conference League
    -------------------------------
    EuroClubIndex -35.36011077
    Futbolmetrix -36.46283474
    Jesus Petry -36.48265372
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -36.51230514
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -36.80927811
    Werner Pichler -37.33075146
    wdnr -37.61520676
    CollectiveConsciousness -37.68870919
    FiveThirtyEight -38.8271458
    Anders T -41.22827599
    Alessandro Riolo -41.92610987
    Fantomen -42.80957232
    MH -43.51471792
    Agnostic -44.36141956
    Volkan Riolo -48.70950275
    Jack C (13Nil) -51.92588406
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -52.9500325


    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) is based on UEFA's own club ranking, correct?

    Sounds about right that what they use for seeding is pretty much the worst indicator of actual strength.


    Ciao,
    Werner

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Fri Nov 4 09:20:16 2022
    On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 5:11:31 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 8:13:14 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Standings at the halfway point:
    Standings with one match day to go

    Final standings:

    Champions League
    ------------------------------
    MH -30.28504482
    Jack C (13Nil) -31.35700914
    Collective Consciousness -32.9243471
    Club Elo (by Futbolmetrix) -33.29588595
    Jesus Petry -33.40999303
    EuroClubIndex -33.49829781
    Werner Pichler -33.88595534
    Futbolmetrix -34.12683436
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -34.38855764
    wdnr -34.9657539
    FiveThirtyEight -34.98859725
    Wage Bill (by Futbolmetrix) -35.85438844
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -38.17148658
    Volkan Riolo -38.18745687
    Fantomen -38.79725793
    Alessandro Riolo -39.62825533
    Anders T -40.83084496
    Agnostic -44.36141956

    MH defends his CL group stage title from last year, and extends his lead at the top of the Hall of Sophistication. One for the humans!



    Europa League
    ------------------------
    FiveThirtyEight -34.35995473
    Werner Pichler -34.99392222
    MH -36.33821425
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -36.84596588
    EuroClubIndex -37.40020758
    CollectiveConsciousness -37.51101005
    Jack C (13Nil) -37.6720593
    Futbolmetrix -38.94225618
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -39.55283125
    Volkan Riolo -40.72860324
    Alessandro Riolo -41.28296385
    Anders T -41.87054595
    wdnr -42.26453599
    Jesus Petry -43.99907297
    Agnostic -44.36141956
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -57.31050377

    Among other things, Sturm Graz's elimination also contributed to knock our resident Mr Europa League from the top spot, in favor of E$PN''s prediction juggernaut. UEFA rankings suck. That's FiveThirtyEight's 5th entry in the Hall of Sophistication.




    Conference League
    -------------------------------
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -31.69589502
    EuroClubIndex -34.81191987
    Futbolmetrix -34.85339683
    Jesus Petry -35.6717235
    wdnr -35.97404701
    Werner Pichler -36.11265663
    CollectiveConsciousness -36.50086215
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -36.80587465
    FiveThirtyEight -38.15189983
    Anders T -40.21667508
    Fantomen -41.84998205
    MH -42.09987166
    Alessandro Riolo -42.77037419
    Agnostic -44.36141956
    Volkan Riolo -46.87692129
    Jack C (13Nil) -48.71723295
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -52.31401783

    Money matters in the Conference League! I console myself as being first of the humans.


    Combined rankings of all three competitions -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Werner Pichler -104.9925342
    EuroClubIndex -105.7104253
    CollectiveConsciousness -106.9362193
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -106.9477265
    FiveThirtyEight -107.5004518
    MH -108.7231307
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -105.6372839
    Futbolmetrix -107.9224874
    wdnr -113.2043369
    Jesus Petry -113.0807895
    Anders T -122.918066
    Jack C (13Nil) -117.7463014
    Alessandro Riolo -123.6815934
    Volkan Riolo -125.7929814
    Agnostic -133.0842587
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -147.7960082

    Nice consolation prize for Werner! Or maybe not a consolation prize at all?




    Hall of Sophistication
    ---------------------------------
    MH 11
    Jesper Lauridsen 8
    Werner Pichler 7
    Jesus Petry 7
    Anders T 7
    Club Elo 6
    Futbolmetrix 6
    FiveThirtyEight 5
    Binder Dundat 5
    TransferMarkt 4
    Jussi Uosukainen 3
    7h@ch 3
    Clement 2
    fitbawnumbers 2
    Silver Aurora 2
    AQB 2
    Jimmy Featherstone 2
    ruud 2
    Agnostic 1
    Gronaldo 1
    Dec Tech 1
    MMcC 1
    Lorenzo Carli 1
    Renato Guadagnolo 1
    Remiqz 1
    EuroClubIndex 1
    La Violeta 1
    FiveThirtyEight Minus 1
    Matthias Muehlich 1
    ClubElo/ClubTM 1
    Abubakr 1
    Colin 1
    Konakalab 1
    Tim Hooper 1
    Jack C 1
    Voros McCracken 1
    FIFA (implemented by Futbolmetrix 1


    Thanks to all for playing, WorldCup SophCon coming soon!

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From MH@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Fri Nov 4 11:29:23 2022
    On 2022-11-04 10:20, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 5:11:31 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 8:13:14 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Standings at the halfway point:
    Standings with one match day to go

    Final standings:

    Champions League
    ------------------------------
    MH -30.28504482
    Jack C (13Nil) -31.35700914
    Collective Consciousness -32.9243471
    Club Elo (by Futbolmetrix) -33.29588595
    Jesus Petry -33.40999303
    EuroClubIndex -33.49829781
    Werner Pichler -33.88595534
    Futbolmetrix -34.12683436
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -34.38855764
    wdnr -34.9657539
    FiveThirtyEight -34.98859725
    Wage Bill (by Futbolmetrix) -35.85438844
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -38.17148658
    Volkan Riolo -38.18745687
    Fantomen -38.79725793
    Alessandro Riolo -39.62825533
    Anders T -40.83084496
    Agnostic -44.36141956

    MH defends his CL group stage title from last year, and extends his lead at the top of the Hall of Sophistication. One for the humans!

    How did I even win ? I was way off base on quite a few (notably
    Bruges). Were other people even less keen on Bruges than I was?


    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Jesus Petry@21:1/5 to All on Fri Nov 4 11:06:59 2022
    Em sexta-feira, 4 de novembro de 2022 às 14:29:26 UTC-3, MH escreveu:
    On 2022-11-04 10:20, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 5:11:31 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 8:13:14 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    Standings at the halfway point:
    Standings with one match day to go

    Final standings:

    Champions League
    ------------------------------
    MH -30.28504482
    Jack C (13Nil) -31.35700914
    Collective Consciousness -32.9243471
    Club Elo (by Futbolmetrix) -33.29588595
    Jesus Petry -33.40999303
    EuroClubIndex -33.49829781
    Werner Pichler -33.88595534
    Futbolmetrix -34.12683436
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -34.38855764
    wdnr -34.9657539
    FiveThirtyEight -34.98859725
    Wage Bill (by Futbolmetrix) -35.85438844
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -38.17148658
    Volkan Riolo -38.18745687
    Fantomen -38.79725793
    Alessandro Riolo -39.62825533
    Anders T -40.83084496
    Agnostic -44.36141956

    MH defends his CL group stage title from last year, and extends his lead at the top of the Hall of Sophistication. One for the humans!
    How did I even win ? I was way off base on quite a few (notably
    Bruges). Were other people even less keen on Bruges than I was?

    Very probably. I know I probably was, and I'm known for my cautious approach to this game.

    Tchau!
    Jesus Petry

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Fri Nov 4 11:51:28 2022
    On Friday, November 4, 2022 at 1:29:26 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:

    How did I even win ? I was way off base on quite a few (notably
    Bruges). Were other people even less keen on Bruges than I was?

    Here are your scores relative to Collective Consciousness, by group:

    A: +1.87
    B : +0.07
    C: -0.29
    D: -0.24
    E: +0.76
    F: +1.14
    G: +0.83
    H: -1.50
    ----------------
    Total: +6.78

    The single team that gave you the biggest edge over CC was Liverpool (+0.59), followed by Ajax (0.47) and Napoli (0.46). You should have told us that you knew something about Kvaratskhelia that the rest of us didn't.

    After that comes Celtic (0.40). Many of us thought that the situation in Ukraine would irreparably hurt Shakhtar, but they exceeded expectations.

    Here is the UCL Master spreadsheet for those who want to play with it:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/2o2bsmak7au3b5p/spc_ucl2022-23_GroupStage_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0

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  • From Werner Pichler@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Sat Nov 5 18:04:47 2022
    On Friday, November 4, 2022 at 5:20:18 PM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Final standings:


    Europa League
    ------------------------
    FiveThirtyEight -34.35995473
    Werner Pichler -34.99392222
    MH -36.33821425
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -36.84596588
    EuroClubIndex -37.40020758
    CollectiveConsciousness -37.51101005
    Jack C (13Nil) -37.6720593
    Futbolmetrix -38.94225618
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -39.55283125
    Volkan Riolo -40.72860324
    Alessandro Riolo -41.28296385
    Anders T -41.87054595
    wdnr -42.26453599
    Jesus Petry -43.99907297
    Agnostic -44.36141956
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -57.31050377

    Among other things, Sturm Graz's elimination also contributed to knock our resident Mr Europa League from the top spot, in favor of E$PN''s prediction juggernaut.

    Well that's just peachy.

    UEFA rankings suck.

    Thankfully they're not used for anything important.

    That's FiveThirtyEight's 5th entry in the Hall of Sophistication.

    I think it's time to acknowledge that their wonky Soccer Power Index isn't half bad.



    Conference League
    -------------------------------
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -31.69589502
    EuroClubIndex -34.81191987
    Futbolmetrix -34.85339683
    Jesus Petry -35.6717235
    wdnr -35.97404701
    Werner Pichler -36.11265663
    CollectiveConsciousness -36.50086215
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -36.80587465
    FiveThirtyEight -38.15189983
    Anders T -40.21667508
    Fantomen -41.84998205
    MH -42.09987166
    Alessandro Riolo -42.77037419
    Agnostic -44.36141956
    Volkan Riolo -46.87692129
    Jack C (13Nil) -48.71723295
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -52.31401783

    Money matters in the Conference League! I console myself as being first of the humans.

    I guess the relative budget differences might actually be biggest here? (West Ham or Villarreal compared to Ballkani or Vaduz).


    Combined rankings of all three competitions ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Werner Pichler -104.9925342
    EuroClubIndex -105.7104253
    CollectiveConsciousness -106.9362193
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -106.9477265
    FiveThirtyEight -107.5004518
    MH -108.7231307
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -105.6372839
    Futbolmetrix -107.9224874
    wdnr -113.2043369
    Jesus Petry -113.0807895
    Anders T -122.918066
    Jack C (13Nil) -117.7463014
    Alessandro Riolo -123.6815934
    Volkan Riolo -125.7929814
    Agnostic -133.0842587
    UEFA (by Futbolmetrix) -147.7960082

    Nice consolation prize for Werner! Or maybe not a consolation prize at all?

    Well does it provide me with an entry in the Hall of Sophistication?





    Hall of Sophistication
    ---------------------------------
    MH 11
    Jesper Lauridsen 8
    Werner Pichler 7
    Jesus Petry 7
    Anders T 7
    Club Elo 6
    Futbolmetrix 6
    FiveThirtyEight 5
    Binder Dundat 5
    TransferMarkt 4
    Jussi Uosukainen 3
    7h@ch 3
    Clement 2
    fitbawnumbers 2
    Silver Aurora 2
    AQB 2
    Jimmy Featherstone 2
    ruud 2
    Agnostic 1
    Gronaldo 1
    Dec Tech 1
    MMcC 1
    Lorenzo Carli 1
    Renato Guadagnolo 1
    Remiqz 1
    EuroClubIndex 1
    La Violeta 1
    FiveThirtyEight Minus 1
    Matthias Muehlich 1
    ClubElo/ClubTM 1
    Abubakr 1
    Colin 1
    Konakalab 1
    Tim Hooper 1
    Jack C 1
    Voros McCracken 1
    FIFA (implemented by Futbolmetrix 1

    So, no! :)


    Ciao,
    Werner



    Thanks to all for playing, WorldCup SophCon coming soon!

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  • From MH@21:1/5 to All on Sun Nov 6 11:53:45 2022
    Hall of Sophistication
    ---------------------------------
    MH 11
    Jesper Lauridsen 8
    Werner Pichler 7
    Jesus Petry 7
    Anders T 7
    Club Elo 6
    Futbolmetrix 6
    FiveThirtyEight 5
    Binder Dundat 5
    TransferMarkt 4
    Jussi Uosukainen 3
    7h@ch 3
    Clement 2
    fitbawnumbers 2
    Silver Aurora 2
    AQB 2
    Jimmy Featherstone 2
    ruud 2
    Agnostic 1
    Gronaldo 1
    Dec Tech 1
    MMcC 1
    Lorenzo Carli 1
    Renato Guadagnolo 1
    Remiqz 1
    EuroClubIndex 1
    La Violeta 1
    FiveThirtyEight Minus 1
    Matthias Muehlich 1
    ClubElo/ClubTM 1
    Abubakr 1
    Colin 1
    Konakalab 1
    Tim Hooper 1
    Jack C 1
    Voros McCracken 1


    USing a minimum number of participations (5, 10, 15 ?) how do people
    compare on a wins per entry basis. I am pretty sure I would be quite
    far down, because I have missed few if any of these since the very
    beginning. Agnostic has only won once, so she would be dead last, I
    assume.



    FIFA (implemented by Futbolmetrix 1


    Thanks to all for playing, WorldCup SophCon coming soon!

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 7 12:00:47 2022
    On Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 1:53:48 PM UTC-5, MH wrote:

    USing a minimum number of participations (5, 10, 15 ?) how do people
    compare on a wins per entry basis. I am pretty sure I would be quite
    far down, because I have missed few if any of these since the very beginning. Agnostic has only won once, so she would be dead last, I
    assume.


    I'm not sure I would want to run that analysis, as I have also probably participated in every one of these, and having won only six times, I'd show up very close to the bottom of the rankings...(then again, if I claim as mine the various ClubElo/
    TransferMarkt/etc. predictions, things would look more rosy)

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