• Fantasy Scout - Chat thread, August 2022

    From milivella@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 24 04:43:38 2022
    [The rules of this thread are simple: write what you want, reply if you
    want, ignore if you have to.]

    ---

    I have updated the archive of the data and the graphs depicting the
    evolution of the rankings:
    http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/guestpages.htm
    Enjoy.

    --
    Cheers
    milivella

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  • From Jesper Lauridsen@21:1/5 to milivella on Wed Aug 24 17:02:24 2022
    On 2022-08-24, milivella <milivella@gmail.com> wrote:
    [The rules of this thread are simple: write what you want, reply if you
    want, ignore if you have to.]

    Has anyone picked German U21 Bisseck yet?

    https://clip.dubz.co/v/35mp23

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  • From milivella@21:1/5 to All on Fri Aug 26 00:31:31 2022
    Jesper Lauridsen:

    Has anyone picked German U21 Bisseck yet?

    https://clip.dubz.co/v/35mp23

    No. It could be a good time to join the game... (whistles casually)

    --
    Cheers
    militell

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  • From milivella@21:1/5 to All on Fri Aug 26 04:02:16 2022
    I have updated the archive of the data and the graphs depicting the
    evolution of the rankings:
    http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/guestpages.htm

    So, what has happened?

    Cycle 1: Thomas Mueller got more points than any other player, going
    from 0.41 to 1.14 PPM (points per match). This means that Daniele:
    scored more points than any other scout but almost-surely-winner Sid
    Debgupta, got his place on the podium back, and has now 50% chances to
    keep said place (by remaining above Jesus or leapfrogging Michael H.).

    Cycle 2: the most remarkable thing is Depay's 2.00 PPM, 0.69 more than
    any other player in any cycle. Depay single-handedly moved Tom Two to
    5th place---almost 4th, if not for Pietro's acceleration. However, the
    podium is still far away for Tom, even though not out of reach.

    Cycle 3: here, too, the race for 3rd place is the cover story. Binder,
    Nigel and Michael H. are closer than they were one year ago. The
    algorithm has Binder out of the race, because he only has aging Morata
    left; seemingly a reasonable reasoning. Then it's Nigel's Stones+Coman+Gabriel+Ake+Martial(+Promes?) vs. Michael's Goretzka+Laporte+Shaw+Digne. It will be interesting to see this unrolls.

    Cycle 4: want to hear a new one? Then I have bad news for you. The real
    race is for podium here, too. But I promise it's the last time---we're
    about to move to the lively cycles. Anyway... Abubakr is in third place
    and he has scored more points than anyone else below him, thanks to a
    certain Mbappe. On this basis, it's fair to think that Abubakr will keep
    his place on the podium. On the other hand, Alberto will get 1 point
    every time Germany will play for the next 8 years (Kimmich) and has two
    players who have been about to break out for the past 8 years (Asensio
    and Dembele), so the algorithm doesn't count him out.

    To be continued...

    --
    Cheers
    milivella

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  • From milivella@21:1/5 to All on Sat Aug 27 03:44:45 2022
    milivella:

    I have updated the archive of the data and the graphs depicting the
    evolution of the rankings:
    http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/guestpages.htm

    So, what has happened?

    (or: what happened?)

    Cycle 1: Thomas Mueller got more points than any other player, going

    [snip]

    Cycle 5: when you have the top three scouts having three of the best six performances across all cycles, you know you're in for a great top spot
    race. Alberto's 65 point (4.92 PPM) season meant he managed to overtake
    Michael H. despite the latter's very good score of 58 (4.39). However,
    it's Jackson's incredible score of 85 (6.44), the best across all cycles
    (yes, even better than Andrea V.'s 3rd cycle, believe it or not), that
    marks the season. Jackson' record performance is due to a mix of already established staples (Lautaro Martinez, Maguire), players stepping up
    (Vinicius Junior) and newcomers to international football (Soler, Theo Hernandez, Carlos Cuesta). Jackson is now just 13 points below the top
    and at this rate, he will likely be the leader soon. The prediction has
    Jackson up from 57% to 77% chances to win the cycle, 15 of these 20
    points taken from his closest opponents. This could easily be the season
    we'll perceive as the one when Jackson won the cycle... assuming he will.

    To be continued...

    --
    Cheers
    milivella

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  • From Jackson@21:1/5 to milivella on Tue Aug 30 00:20:43 2022
    On Saturday, August 27, 2022 at 9:44:48 AM UTC+8, milivella wrote:
    milivella:
    I have updated the archive of the data and the graphs depicting the
    evolution of the rankings:
    http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/guestpages.htm

    So, what has happened?
    (or: what happened?)
    Cycle 1: Thomas Mueller got more points than any other player, going
    [snip]

    Cycle 5: when you have the top three scouts having three of the best six performances across all cycles, you know you're in for a great top spot
    race. Alberto's 65 point (4.92 PPM) season meant he managed to overtake Michael H. despite the latter's very good score of 58 (4.39). However,
    it's Jackson's incredible score of 85 (6.44), the best across all cycles (yes, even better than Andrea V.'s 3rd cycle, believe it or not), that
    marks the season. Jackson' record performance is due to a mix of already established staples (Lautaro Martinez, Maguire), players stepping up (Vinicius Junior) and newcomers to international football (Soler, Theo Hernandez, Carlos Cuesta). Jackson is now just 13 points below the top
    and at this rate, he will likely be the leader soon. The prediction has Jackson up from 57% to 77% chances to win the cycle, 15 of these 20
    points taken from his closest opponents. This could easily be the season we'll perceive as the one when Jackson won the cycle... assuming he will.
    To be continued...

    --
    Cheers
    milivella

    I always enjoy reading your yearly cycle roundups. Obviously, it gets boring from Cycle 5 on when the news is just that Jackson is becoming more and more powerful, but that's how it goes...

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  • From milivella@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 2 07:16:01 2022
    milivella:

    milivella:

    I have updated the archive of the data and the graphs depicting the
    evolution of the rankings:
    http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/guestpages.htm

    So, what has happened?

    (or: what happened?)

    Cycle 1: Thomas Mueller got more points than any other player, going

    [snip]

    Cycle 5: when you have the top three scouts having three of the best six

    [snip]

    Cycle 6: Jackson (60 points) outscored anyone, and particularly his most dangerous opponent Leon (56), despite his players being in average just
    21.6 year old, while Leon's players are 24.9. No wonder that Jackson
    further improved his chances to win the cycle (51% to 58%), at the
    expense of (among others) Leon (25% to 21%). Jackson's best players have
    been Paqueta, Grealish, Bellingham (who is just 19), Bruno Guimaraes.
    Leon's best player has been Diogo Jota, who is already 25.

    ---

    Alternative way to describe the situation of this cycle: Leon scored
    almost as many points (56) as Jackson (60) and more than Ville (62). He
    also improved his points per match ratio (+0.42), while the other two
    had their ratio worsen (Jackson -0.04, Ville -0.18). Yet, the algorithm
    says that Ville has less chances to win the cycle (25% to 21%), while
    Jackson and Ville have more (Jackson 51 to 58, Ville 10 to 12). The
    reason is simple: Ville has significant older players, the average age
    of his players being 24.9, while both Jackson's and Ville's squads are
    21.6 (Ville's older player is younger than the average Leon's player!).
    This means that J&V's players are not expected to score many points yet,
    while L's are. If L doesn't outscore J&V now, he has little chance to
    finish before both of them. Hence that prediction. But let's give some
    names to these numbers: Jackson has Bellingham and Pedri, two rare
    established teens. Ville's best players are all 22 or 23: Ferran Torres,
    Mount, Reece J
  • From Werner Pichler@21:1/5 to milivella on Sat Sep 10 00:00:18 2022
    On Wednesday, August 24, 2022 at 4:43:41 AM UTC+2, milivella wrote:
    [The rules of this thread are simple: write what you want, reply if you
    want, ignore if you have to.]

    ---

    I have updated the archive of the data and the graphs depicting the
    evolution of the rankings:
    http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/guestpages.htm
    Enjoy.

    He last played for the NT in 2013 (and was in the squad in the 2015), so not exactly relevant to any race, but Davide Santon is forced to retire at 31, his knees are ruined.

    https://romapress.net/ex-roma-player-davide-santon-announces-retirement/

    Ciao,
    Werner

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  • From milivella@21:1/5 to All on Sat Sep 10 10:04:27 2022
    milivella:

    milivella:

    milivella:

    I have updated the archive of the data and the graphs depicting the
    evolution of the rankings:
    http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/guestpages.htm

    So, what has happened?

    (or: what happened?)

    Cycle 1: Thomas Mueller got more points than any other player, going

    [snip]

    Cycle 5: when you have the top three scouts having three of the best six

    [snip]

    Cycle 6: Jackson (60 points) outscored anyone, and particularly his most

    [snip]

    Cycle 7: scoring more than 3 points per match (PPM) before the end of
    the picking cycle is rare. In each of the previous two cycles, only one
    scout had managed such a feat. This season, in cycle 7, *four* scouts
    scored more than 3 PPM. They were Jackson (Tchouameni, Kalvin Phillips),
    Leon (Unai Simon, Cristian Romero), Alberto (Raspadori, Darwin Nunez)
    and Ville (Gavi, Molina). With such an exciting start, this cycle
    promises a lot of fun.

    --
    Cheers
    milivella

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  • From milivella@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 19 01:24:24 2022
    Werner Pichler:

    He last played for the NT in 2013 (and was in the squad in the 2015), so not exactly relevant to any race, but Davide Santon is forced to retire at 31, his knees are ruined.

    https://romapress.net/ex-roma-player-davide-santon-announces-retirement/

    I remember when we thought he was a guaranteed 100-pointer...

    --
    Cheers
    milivella

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  • From milivella@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 19 01:22:50 2022
    Jackson:

    Obviously, it gets boring from Cycle 5 on when the news is just that Jackson is becoming more and more powerful

    No spoilers, please! :)

    --
    Cheers
    milivella

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  • From MH@21:1/5 to milivella on Mon Sep 19 13:40:01 2022
    On 2022-09-18 17:24, milivella wrote:
    Werner Pichler:

    He last played for the NT in 2013 (and was in the squad in the 2015),
    so not
    exactly relevant to any race, but Davide Santon is forced to retire at
    31, his knees are ruined.

    https://romapress.net/ex-roma-player-davide-santon-announces-retirement/

    I remember when we thought he was a guaranteed 100-pointer...

    Benzema injury has resulted in a recall for old man Giroud. Who is
    still starting and scoring for Milan, btw.
    My best pick by a long shot, given that he was not all that obvious.
    Could have been another Guivar'ch




    --
    Cheers
    milivella


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  • From milivella@21:1/5 to All on Thu Sep 22 18:58:03 2022
    In the 1980s, the Italian sport magazine Guerin Sportivo used to assess
    the season of each Italian club reporting the season's star, surprise
    and disappointment ("stella, sorpresa e delusione"). Sometimes I apply
    these three categories to Fantasy Scout. Let's do this automatically:

    * Star = player who scored more points (here and elsewhere, points or
    score = points per international match of his NT---you can check them on
    the site: Home > Guest pages > Players)

    * Surprise = player who improved his score the most

    * Disappointment = player whose score worsened the most

    Here are my stars, surprises and disappointments of the 2021-22 season:

    Cycle | Star | Surprise | Disappointment
    2 | Varane | - | Krul
    3 | Werner | Klaassen | Roberto Firmino
    4 | Van Dijk, Gabriel Jesus | Van Dijk | Gaya
    5 | Lo Celso | Alexander Arnold | Calvert Lewin
    6 | Musiala | Kounde | Everton
    7 | Raphinha | Raphinha | -

    --
    Cheers
    milivella

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  • From milivella@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 23 00:21:38 2022
    TUg6DQoNCj4gQmVuemVtYSBpbmp1cnkgaGFzIHJlc3VsdGVkIGluIGEgcmVjYWxsIGZvciBv bGQgbWFuIEdpcm91ZC7CoCBXaG8gaXMgDQo+IHN0aWxsIHN0YXJ0aW5nIGFuZCBzY29yaW5n IGZvciBNaWxhbiwgYnR3Lg0KDQpBbmQgaGUgcGxheWVkLiBBbmQgaGUgc2NvcmVkIQ0KDQpU aGUgbGVnZW5kIGxpdmVzIG9uLg0KDQotLQ0KQ2hlZXJzDQptaWxpdmVsbGENCg0K

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  • From milivella@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 23 03:23:43 2022
    I have updated the clubs the players play for.

    --
    Cheers
    milivella

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  • From MH@21:1/5 to milivella on Thu Sep 22 21:57:10 2022
    On 2022-09-22 16:21, milivella wrote:
    MH:

    Benzema injury has resulted in a recall for old man Giroud.  Who is
    still starting and scoring for Milan, btw.

    And he played. And he scored!

    The legend lives on.

    --
    Cheers
    milivella

    49 goals for France. Surely they will give him a couple more caps to
    get to 50 ?

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  • From milivella@21:1/5 to All on Sat Sep 24 00:33:59 2022
    September 23 in milivellaland was about football being simple.

    You see, scoring is simple. Just look at Richarlison's two goals against
    Ghana: https://old.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/xm64i9/brazil_2_0_ghana_richarlison_28/
    https://old.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/xm6g1j/brazil_3_0_ghana_richarlison_40/

    On the other hand, it looks like football is not _so_ simple that Tim
    "Mr. Penalties" Krul can skip penalty practice...
    "Norwich's Tim Krul has been told he will never play for the Netherlands
    again after he refused to go to training to practise penalties" https://twitter.com/_The72/status/1573094894486392834

    --
    Cheers
    milivella

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  • From Werner Pichler@21:1/5 to milivella on Tue Sep 27 14:21:47 2022
    On Monday, September 19, 2022 at 1:24:27 AM UTC+2, milivella wrote:
    Werner Pichler:
    He last played for the NT in 2013 (and was in the squad in the 2015), so not
    exactly relevant to any race, but Davide Santon is forced to retire at 31, his knees are ruined.

    https://romapress.net/ex-roma-player-davide-santon-announces-retirement/

    I remember when we thought he was a guaranteed 100-pointer...

    Fabian Delph retired. Last England match in 2019.
    Injuries...


    Ciao,
    Werner

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