On Friday, April 15, 2022 at 12:21:02 PM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:

Could you ever do a 'metasophcon', consolidating the data of the last couple of seasons?

I have kept track of all the predictions for the past 5-6 years. 538 does well, but as far as I remember ClubElo's predictions had a slight edge. Will post something at the end of the season.

SophCon standings after the semifinals:

Champions League
------------------------------
Jesper -15.719
FiveThirtyEight -16.186
Collective Consciousness -16.186
Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -16.339
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -16.637
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -16.679
@KickandCash -16.743
Werner Pichler -16.818
MH -16.906
Futbolmetrix -17.294
Anders T -18.494
Agnostic -19.408


Europa League
-------------------------
Jesper -27.086
FiveThirtyEight -27.918
Werner Pichler -28.991
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -28.684
Collective Consciousness -28.954
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -29.776
Futbolmetrix -30.057
Agnostic -30.498
Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -31.802
MH -32.577


Conference League
------------------------------
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -24.491
FiveThirtyEight -24.846
Jesper -24.871
Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -25.529
Werner Pichler -25.586
Collective Consciousness -25.995
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -26.482
Futbolmetrix -28.472
MH -29.828
Agnostic -30.498

Spoiler alert: Jesper will fall short of a historic treble

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On 2022-05-07, Futbolmetrix <daniele.paserman@gmail.com> wrote:

On Friday, April 15, 2022 at 12:21:02 PM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:

Could you ever do a 'metasophcon', consolidating the data of the last couple of seasons?

I have kept track of all the predictions for the past 5-6 years. 538 does well, but as far as I remember ClubElo's predictions had a slight edge. Will post something at the end of the season.

SophCon standings after the semifinals:

I have not seen any announcements of masters.

Champions League
------------------------------
Jesper -15.719

My final score will be either
-17,2215237092
or
-16,9966425379

Europa League
-------------------------
Jesper -27.086

How is that possible with a 0.7 for a Rangers first round exit?

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Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:

Futbolmetrix -17.294
Anders T -18.494

That´s it. I´m done!


--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

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On Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:15:31 PM UTC-4, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

I have not seen any announcements of masters.

So that one loses all the suspense and drama of revealing who the winner is? Ah, well...

UCL Master sheet: https://www.dropbox.com/s/cgfc5g4zidpap9i/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UCL2022_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0

EL Master sheet: https://www.dropbox.com/s/ld477hrk78jpk15/SophisticatedPredictionContest_EL2022_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0

ConfL Master Sheet: https://www.dropbox.com/s/k1r0vre935eo5cd/SophisticatedPredictionContest_ConfL2022_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0

How is that possible with a 0.7 for a Rangers first round exit?

Collective Consciousness had Rangers at 0.76 for going out in the first round.

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On 2022-05-08, Futbolmetrix <daniele.paserman@gmail.com> wrote:

How is that possible with a 0.7 for a Rangers first round exit?

Collective Consciousness had Rangers at 0.76 for going out in the first round.

Hmm, compared with CC my best teams were Eintracht (+0,58), Betis (0,35), Leipzig (0,346). Worst were Rangers (-0,35) and Braga (-0,27)

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On Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:18:46 PM UTC+3, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

European Cups SophCon: Final standings:

Champions League:
-------------------------------
Row Labels Sum of Score_final Sum of Brier Sum of RPS
Jesper -17.222 9.082 8.409
Collective Consciousness -17.675 9.302 8.181
FiveThirtyEight -17.913 8.967 8.057
Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -18.070 9.118 8.073
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -18.080 9.162 8.279
Werner Pichler -18.204 9.918 8.666
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -18.282 9.532 8.168
@KickandCash -18.287 9.329 8.259
MH -18.293 9.575 9.280
Futbolmetrix -18.714 10.071 8.315
Anders T -19.894 10.824 8.810
Agnostic -20.794 10.625 9.688


Jesper wins the premier competition, ahead of CC and FiveThirtyEight. The latter can claim that it wuz robbed, as it would have topped the standings if we had used the Brier scoring method.



Europa League
--------------------------

Row Labels Sum of Score_final Sum of Brier Sum of RPS
Jesper -28.472 12.781 13.371
FiveThirtyEight -29.035 13.407 14.276
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -29.886 13.507 14.291
Collective Consciousness -30.192 13.700 14.493
Werner Pichler -30.377 12.878 13.575
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -31.119 14.307 15.000
Futbolmetrix -31.443 14.134 15.014
Agnostic -31.885 15.719 15.484
Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -33.167 14.801 15.837
MH -33.963 15.807 17.100

This time FiveThirtyEight can't even complain about the scoring method against the might of JesperMetrix.
Hall of Shame for MH and Jack C (I barely escape it...)


Conference League
------------------------------
Row Labels Sum of Score_final Sum of Brier Sum of RPS
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -25.947 12.877 11.002
Jesper -26.258 13.539 11.396
FiveThirtyEight -26.273 13.281 11.636
Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -26.572 14.095 11.580
Werner Pichler -26.972 13.980 11.803
Collective Consciousness -27.315 13.771 11.895
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -27.624 13.986 12.127
Futbolmetrix -29.766 14.711 13.191
MH -31.215 15.235 12.941
Agnostic -31.885 15.531 15.859

Jesper again tops FiveThirtyEight, but ClubElo beats both for first place.

Hall of Sophistication rankings to follow

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On Monday, June 13, 2022 at 9:26:22 PM UTC+3, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:18:46 PM UTC+3, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

European Cups SophCon: Final standings:

Champions League:

Jesper wins the premier competition, ahead of CC and FiveThirtyEight. The latter can claim that it wuz robbed, as it would have topped the standings if we had used the Brier scoring method.

This, by the way, was the 100th ever SophCon on RSS. JesperMetrix can put "winner of the Centenary SophCon" on his twitter profile.

Full list:

id competition name one
1 WC 2002 MH 1
2 UCL 2003-2004, Group Stage MMcC 1
3 Euro 2004 Voros McCracken 1
4 UCL 2004-2005, Group Stage Colin 1
5 UCL 2004-2005, Knockout Round Renato Guadagnolo 1
6 Libertadores 2005 Agnostic 1
7 UCL 2005-2006, Group Stage Gronaldo 1
8 EPL 2005-2006 Werner Pichler 1
9 UCL 2005-2006, Knockout Round ruud 1
10 Libertadores 2006 Jesus Petry 1
11 WC 2006, Group Stages Jimmy Featherstone 1
12 WC 2006, Overall Jimmy Featherstone 1
13 UCL 2006-2007, Group Stage Jussi Uosukainen 1
14 EPL 2006-2007 7h@ch 1
15 UCL 2006-2007, Final Stage Jesus Petry 1
16 Libertadores 2007 La Violeta 1
17 Copa America 2007 Tim Hooper 1
18 Asian Cup 2007 Futbolmetrix 1
19 UCL 2007-2008 Group Stage Jesus Petry 1
20 EPL 2007-2008 Jussi Uosukainen 1
21 Serie A 2007-2008 7h@ch 1
22 La Liga 2007-2008 Jesus Petry 1
23 UCL 2007-2008, Knockout round Anders T 1
24 Libertadores 2008 MH 1
25 Euro 2008 ruud 1
26 UCL 2008-2009, Group Stage Matthias Muehlich 1
27 UCL 2008-2009, Knockout round Anders T 1
28 UCL 2009-2010, Group Stage Binder Dundat 1
29 UCL 2009-2010, Knockout round Binder Dundat 1
30 WC 2010, Group Stages AQB 1
31 WC 2010, Overall AQB 1
32 UCL 2010-2011, Knockout Round Jussi Uosukainen 1
33 Euro 2012 qualifiers Futbolmetrix 1
34 UCL 2011-2012 Group Stage Abubakr 1
35 Europa League 2011-2012, Knockout Round Werner Pichler 1
36 UCL 2011-2012, Knockout Round MH 1
37 Euro 2012 Anders T 1
38 Olympic Games 2012 Anders T 1
39 UCL 2012-2013, Group stage Clement 1
40 Europa League 2012-2013, Group stage MH 1
41 Europa League 2012-2013, Knockout Round Binder Dundat 1
42 Champions' League 2012-1013, Knockout Round Binder Dundat 1
43 UEFA WCQ, 2012-2014 Werner Pichler 1
44 UCL 2013-2014, Group Stage Jesper Lauridsen 1
45 Europa League 2013-2014, Group Stage Werner Pichler 1
46 Europa League 2013-2014, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1
47 UCL 2013-2014, Knockout Round Futbolmetrix 1
48 WC 2014 Anders T 1
49 UCL 2014-2015, Group Stage Jesper Lauridsen 1
50 Europa League 2014-2015, Group Stage Clement 1
51 EL 2014-2015, Knockout Round MH 1
52 UCL 2014-2015, Knockout Round Futbolmetrix 1
53 Copa America 2015 Binder Dundat 1
54 UCL 2015-2016, Group Stage MH 1
55 EL 2015-2016, Group Stage Club Elo 1
56 Euro 2016 Qualifiers Futbolmetrix 1
57 EPL 2015-2016, Full Season Club Elo 1
58 UCL 2015-2016, Knockout Rounds Futbolmetrix 1
59 EL 2015-2016, Knockout Rounds Werner Pichler 1
60 Copa America Centenario FIFA (implemented by Futbolmetrix 1
61 Euro 2016 Jesus Petry 1
62 Euro 2016 QF Reboot Werner Pichler 1
63 UCL 2016-2017, Group Stage 7h@ch 1
64 EL 2016-2017, Group Stage Club Elo 1
65 EPL 2016-2017 MH 1
66 EL 2016-2017, Knockout Round Anders T 1
67 UCL 2016-2017, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1
68 CONMEBOL WC 2018 Qualifiers Jesper Lauridsen 1
69 UEFA WC2018 Qualifiers MH 1
70 UCL 2017-2018, Group Stage Anders T 1
71 EL 2017-2018, Group Stage FiveThirtyEight 1
72 UCL 2017-2018, Knockout Round Werner Pichler 1
73 EL 2017-2018, Knockout Round FiveThirtyEight 1
74 EPL 2017-2018 Jesus Petry 1
75 WC2018, Group Stage Remiqz 1
76 WC2018, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1
77 WC2018, Overall ClubElo/ClubTM 1
78 UCL 2018-2019, Group Stage Dec Tech 1
79 EL 2018-2019, Group Stage MH 1
80 EPL 2018-2019 Silver Aurora 1
81 UCL 2018-2019, Knockout Round Jesus Petry 1
82 EL 2018-2019, Knockout Round TransferMarkt 1
83 UCL 2019-2020, Group Stage fitbawnumbers 1
84 EL 2019-2020, Group Stage Club Elo 1
85 EPL 2019-2020 FiveThirtyEight 1
86 UCL 2019-2020, Knockout Round FiveThirtyEight 1
87 EL 2019-2020, Knockout Round Lorenzo Carli 1
88 UCL 2020-2021, Group Stages fitbawnumbers 1
89 EL 2020-2021, Group Stages EuroClubIndex 1
90 EPL 2020-2021 FiveThirtyEight Minus 1
91 EL 2020-2021, Knockout Round Club Elo 1
92 UCL 2020-2021, Knockout Round TransferMarkt 1
93 Euro 2020 Konakalab 1
94 UCL 2021-2022, Group Stages MH 1
95 EL 2021-2022, Group Stages TransferMarkt 1
96 ConfL 2021-2022, Group Stages Jack C 1
97 EPL 2021-2022 Silver Aurora 1
98 EL 2021-2022, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1
99 ConfL 2021-2022, Knockout Round Club Elo 1
100 UCL 2021-2022, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1


Hall of Sophistication:
-----------------------------------

MH 10
Jesper Lauridsen 8
Werner Pichler 7
Jesus Petry 7
Anders T 7
Club Elo 6
Futbolmetrix 6
Binder Dundat 5
FiveThirtyEight 4
TransferMarkt 3
Jussi Uosukainen 3
7h@ch 3
Clement 2
fitbawnumbers 2
Silver Aurora 2
AQB 2
Jimmy Featherstone 2
ruud 2
Agnostic 1
Gronaldo 1
Dec Tech 1
MMcC 1
Lorenzo Carli 1
Renato Guadagnolo 1
Remiqz 1
EuroClubIndex 1
La Violeta 1
FiveThirtyEight Minus 1
Matthias Muehlich 1
ClubElo/ClubTM 1
Abubakr 1
Colin 1
Konakalab 1
Tim Hooper 1
Jack C 1
Voros McCracken 1
FIFA (implemented by Futbolmetrix 1

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Em segunda-feira, 13 de junho de 2022 às 15:52:59 UTC-3, Futbolmetrix escreveu:

On Monday, June 13, 2022 at 9:26:22 PM UTC+3, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:18:46 PM UTC+3, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

European Cups SophCon: Final standings:

Champions League:
Jesper wins the premier competition, ahead of CC and FiveThirtyEight. The latter can claim that it wuz robbed, as it would have topped the standings if we had used the Brier scoring method.

This, by the way, was the 100th ever SophCon on RSS. JesperMetrix can put "winner of the Centenary SophCon" on his twitter profile.

Nice.

Hall of Sophistication:
-----------------------------------

MH 10

But Mr. Hynes is the "Campeón del Siglo".

Tchau!
Jesus Petry

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On 2022-06-13 13:03, Jesus Petry wrote:

Em segunda-feira, 13 de junho de 2022 às 15:52:59 UTC-3, Futbolmetrix escreveu:

On Monday, June 13, 2022 at 9:26:22 PM UTC+3, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:18:46 PM UTC+3, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

European Cups SophCon: Final standings:

Champions League:
Jesper wins the premier competition, ahead of CC and FiveThirtyEight. The latter can claim that it wuz robbed, as it would have topped the standings if we had used the Brier scoring method.

This, by the way, was the 100th ever SophCon on RSS. JesperMetrix can put "winner of the Centenary SophCon" on his twitter profile.

Nice.

Hall of Sophistication:
-----------------------------------

MH 10

But Mr. Hynes is the "Campeón del Siglo".

Certainly not when averaged across number of participations. I must
have close to 100 % participation.

Tchau!
Jesus Petry

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On 2022-06-13, Futbolmetrix <daniele.paserman@gmail.com> wrote:

76 WC2018, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1

My most recent win before this season.

77 WC2018, Overall ClubElo/ClubTM 1
78 UCL 2018-2019, Group Stage Dec Tech 1
79 EL 2018-2019, Group Stage MH 1
80 EPL 2018-2019 Silver Aurora 1
81 UCL 2018-2019, Knockout Round Jesus Petry 1
82 EL 2018-2019, Knockout Round TransferMarkt 1
83 UCL 2019-2020, Group Stage fitbawnumbers 1
84 EL 2019-2020, Group Stage Club Elo 1
85 EPL 2019-2020 FiveThirtyEight 1
86 UCL 2019-2020, Knockout Round FiveThirtyEight 1
87 EL 2019-2020, Knockout Round Lorenzo Carli 1
88 UCL 2020-2021, Group Stages fitbawnumbers 1
89 EL 2020-2021, Group Stages EuroClubIndex 1
90 EPL 2020-2021 FiveThirtyEight Minus 1
91 EL 2020-2021, Knockout Round Club Elo 1
92 UCL 2020-2021, Knockout Round TransferMarkt 1
93 Euro 2020 Konakalab 1
94 UCL 2021-2022, Group Stages MH 1
95 EL 2021-2022, Group Stages TransferMarkt 1
96 ConfL 2021-2022, Group Stages Jack C 1
97 EPL 2021-2022 Silver Aurora 1

Only 3 human wins in those 21 competetions.

98 EL 2021-2022, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1
99 ConfL 2021-2022, Knockout Round Club Elo 1
100 UCL 2021-2022, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1

Hall of Sophistication:
-----------------------------------

MH 10
Jesper Lauridsen 8

With human wins so rare, getting a double really helps in the Hall.

Werner Pichler 7
Jesus Petry 7
Anders T 7

Club Elo 6
FiveThirtyEight 4
TransferMarkt 3

But it won't be long before these bots gets to the top.

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