On 17.04.2023 00:10, Werner Pichler wrote:
I've watched quite a lot of NHL this season, much more than usual, so
I'll jot down my
thoughts here, too, because I'm kind of curious how the impressions
that I've formed
so far will hold up in the play-offs.
I fully expect >50% of these predictions to blow up in my face.
I'll give it a go again this year.
Eastern Conference
Panthers (A1) vs Lightning (WC1)
In their previous two playoff matchups in 2021 and 2022, the Battle of Florida has gone Tampa's way, but I feel like this year it should be
the Panthers' time to shine, because last year's cinderella Eastern
champions have gone and improved in practically every area - goalscoring (Reinhart has been killing it), goaltending (Bob has been as good as
ever, and Stolarz is the best back-up in the league), defence (Forsling
has the best +/- rating in the NHL), and shithousery (Nick Cousins is
such a rat).
Tampa OTOH are the same they've always been - the same old core
including a brilliant Kucherov (100 assists for the season, a feat prior
to this season only managed by Orr (once), Lemieux (once) and Gretzky
(11 times) - this year McDavid has managed it, too -, an aging Stamkos
that can still fire the puck like there's no tomorrow but sometimes
looks as if he's hardly able to skate anymore, a defence struggling with injuries (Hedman has turned it on recently though), and an ever more inconsistent Vasilevsky in goal.
Of course, you never know. But still, Florida in 6.
Bruins (A2) vs Maple Leafs (A3)
'It was 4-1!'
This will be interesting. On paper, both teams should be worse than last season, with Boston still feeling the loss of Bergeron and Krejčí, and Toronto still not having addressed any of their problem areas (defence, goaltending, overreliance on their Core 4). Having finally overcome the seemingly insurmountable First Round hurdle last year might give the
Leafs an extra edge, but old habits die hard.
Boston in 7.
Rangers (M1) vs Capitals (WC2)
To the surprise of many, the Rangers have managed to win the Presidents' Trophy as the best team of the Regular Season, and there was indeed much
to like about them this year - most of all Artemi Panarin shaving off
his flowing locks and going on a tear, perhaps there's a correlation -
but also a couple of reasons for concern - there were long stretches
during the season where they didn't do much outside the powerplay, and Shesterkin in net took a while to get back to the level one is used to
seeing from him. But he formed a good tandem with Jonathan Quick (happy
to see him bounce back at the age of 38 from a really bad season), who
picked up the slack when Shesterkin faltered, and vice versa.
Washington OTOH should actually have no business being in this tie
(they even were sellers at the trade deadline), what with their -37 goal difference, by far the worst for a playoff-bound team in the current
era, but yet here they are, buoyed by hard-nosed defending, brilliant goaltending from previous journeyman Charlie Lindgren (a sibling duel
coming up, his younger brother Ryan is a defenceman for the Rangers),
and surprising contributions from both their Old (Ovie looks ancient and
took a loooong time to get going, but did so in the end, Oshie chipped
in with some timely goals, Carlson was solid) and New Guard (they have
some really good development going on over in Hershey, the Bears are the
best team in the AHL).
All courtesy of rookie coach Spencer Carbery, the best hire the Caps
could have made, and good on them for getting off the usual NHL coaches merry-go-round.
Of course, the other teams in the Metro Division (Pittsburgh, New
Jersey, Philadelphia) shitting the bed also helped.
New York Rangers in 5.
Hurricanes (M2) vs Islanders (M3)
A repeat of last year's First Round match-up, and the Islanders, like Washington, are a team that are here mostly not due to own merit, but
because their division rivals have been bad. I'll give them this though
- after having changed coaches from Lane Lambert to Patrick Roy they
have become much less tedious to watch, even if only for Roy's
propensity to pull the goalie ten minutes before the end of a game.
But there's much more to like about Carolina, not the least of which the
way they handled the Trade Deadline, calmly identifying needs and then addressing them - e.g. getting Jake Guentzel from Pittsburgh was an
inspired move, and Guentzel also very quickly silenced those critics who questioned if he could put up numbers without Crosby at his side.
The only reason they didn't win their division (or indeed, the
Presidents' Trophy) was that they somewhat bungled their goaltender situation, but that issue looks resolved now that Frederik Andersen has returned from his health scare (a blood clotting issue) and been
amazing. I'll spill the beans and admit that in my playoff bracket I
have Carolina going very far.
Last years the Canes won in 6, this time I expect them to make even
shorter work of it.
Carolina in 5.
Western Conference
Stars (C1) vs Golden Knights (WC2)
So Dallas have done practically everything right, built a great roster,
won the Western Conference, missed out on the Presidents' Trophy by a
point, and what they get for their troubles is a First Round matchup
with the reigning Stanley Cup champions. A slew of injuries halfway
through the season has given Vegas an (ultimately not very serious)
scare about missing the playoffs, but lo and behold! Miraculously all
their LTIR players (Eichel, Hertl, Stone) are back on the ice just
before the start of the playoffs, fully Salary Cap-compliant, and none
the worse for wear.
My sympathies are definitely with Dallas in this one, but this is the
tie where I've flip-flopped around a couple of times in my prediction bracket, with repercussions all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals which
both teams could reach.
Vegas in 7. But it could just as easily be the other way around.
Jets (C2) v Avalanche (C3)
So Winnipeg have done practically everything right - when everyone
expected a rebuild or worse, instead during the off-season they re-
signed Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck to long-term contracts,
shipped out deadweight like Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois (for
whom they got a great return), played their best regular season in ages,
and what they get for their troubles is a First Round matchup with a
Nathan MacKinnon-powered Avalanche side that has gone full out this year
at the Trade Deadline.
But while Colorado in some matches look like a machine that can
streamroll anyone, on other occasions they have looked fragile, most
of all in goal where Alexandar Georgiev has collected the most wins
in the league with a sub-.900 saving percentage.
But as the Avalanche have shown in the past - if you're good enough up
front you don't really need stellar goaltending to go all the way (they
won the Cup with Darcy Kuemper), and if MacKinnon manages to turn it on,
he's nigh unplayable.
So, with a somewhat heavy heart, I pick Colorado in 6.
Canucks (P1) v Predators (WC1)
Following last year's unmitigated disaster of a season, Vancouver came roaring out of the gates this year, and for long stretches up to the
All-Star break they had the best record of the league. But they've
cooled off quite a bit since then, not accidentally coinciding with an
injury to their goaltender Thatcher Demko, and while Demko has made it
back in time for the playoffs, question marks remain.
Nashville on the contrary are kind of the opposite - a bubble team for
most of the season they suffered an embarrassing loss against Dallas
just before the All-Star break, which prompted their management to
cancel a scheduled trip to a U2 concert in the Las Vegas Sphere, and
it appears that this disappointment spurred those big U2 fans to go
on something like a 20-game unbeaten run that easily secured them a
place in the playoffs. They've never been flashy, just incredibly solid,
with especially Saros, Josi and Forsberg delivering night after night.
This is the tie where I feel an upset is most likely. Nashville in 6.
Oilers (P2) v Kings (P3)
Another repeat of a First Round matchup from last year. It's notable
that there are only three new teams in the playoffs this season
(Washington instead of New Jersey in the East, Vancouver and Nashville
in place of Minnesota and Seattle in the West). It's hard work to turn
the fortunes of an NHL franchise around.
Now here's the thing - after last year's Second Round loss to Vegas,
the Oilers management and staff confidently declared that they'd
identified those issues that prevented their success in the playoffs,
and that they'd make the appropriate changes to the setup of the team -
and then they went and started the season with an atrocious run that saw their coach Jay Woodcroft fired after 13 games when they had a worse
record than San Jose (!). New manager Kris Knoblauch (formerly McDavid's junior coach) came in, went back to the system everyone was used to, and
lo and behold, Edmonton went on an unbeaten run that looked very much
like their Regular Season success in the last couple of years.
But the question lingers - and in the playoffs?
But at least it should be enough to overcome the Kings, who are
noticeably worse than last year, despite starting the season with a record-breaking streak of away wins, got fleeced on the Dubois trade,
also fired their manager, and somewhat limped into the playoffs.
Edmonton in 6, just like last year.
Ciao,
Werner
Werner Pichler wrote:
I'll give it a go again this year.
I probably should have read this before filling my bracket. Instead, I went with the old rule "team from the warmer climate wins." (More or less, I may have deviated from the rule once or twice).
There's an elaborate theory behind this: when May and June comes around on the iceberg and surroundings, you want to go outside and smell the flowers, not play hockey. Teams from Florida and Texas, it makes no difference, so they keep on playing hard.
I'll give it a go again this year.
Futbolmetrix wrote:
Werner Pichler wrote:
I'll give it a go again this year.
I probably should have read this before filling my bracket. Instead, I
went with the old rule "team from the warmer climate wins." (More or
less, I may have deviated from the rule once or twice).
There's an elaborate theory behind this: when May and June comes
around on the iceberg and surroundings, you want to go outside and
smell the flowers, not play hockey. Teams from Florida and Texas, it
makes no difference, so they keep on playing hard.
Wait, you can submit a bracket *after* the some of the first round
matches have already been played? Maybe I should change my predictions
(also, my warmer climate theory is not doing too well -- probably it's
still cold in the iceberg and people are still into hockey)
On 17.04.2023 00:10, Werner Pichler wrote:
I've watched quite a lot of NHL this season, much more than usual, so
I'll jot down my
thoughts here, too, because I'm kind of curious how the impressions
that I've formed
so far will hold up in the play-offs.
I fully expect >50% of these predictions to blow up in my face.
I'll give it a go again this year.
On 2024-04-22 7:35 a.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
Futbolmetrix wrote:
Werner Pichler wrote:
I'll give it a go again this year.
I probably should have read this before filling my bracket. Instead,
I went with the old rule "team from the warmer climate wins." (More
or less, I may have deviated from the rule once or twice).
There's an elaborate theory behind this: when May and June comes
around on the iceberg and surroundings, you want to go outside and
smell the flowers, not play hockey. Teams from Florida and Texas, it
makes no difference, so they keep on playing hard.
Wait, you can submit a bracket *after* the some of the first round
matches have already been played? Maybe I should change my predictions
(also, my warmer climate theory is not doing too well -- probably it's
still cold in the iceberg and people are still into hockey)
It is an interesting theory, though I went totally in the opposite direction. I picked the coldest place on the Iceberg to win it all.
They got noting else in Edmonton, except a shopping mall, they live for
the ice hockey there.
got all 4 picks last night, I must be winning this bracket thing?
Maybe, just maybe the Leafs can win a playoff series, coming out of the
first two games in Boston 1-1 isnt bad.
Didn't they win the series vs. Boston last year ?
MH wrote:
Didn't they win the series vs. Boston last year ?
I think Boston lost to the Panthers (warm climate theory FTW!)
On 2024-04-20 15:25, Werner Pichler wrote:
On 17.04.2023 00:10, Werner Pichler wrote:Thanks for this. You have obviously been paying a lot more attention to
I've watched quite a lot of NHL this season, much more than usual, so
I'll jot down my
thoughts here, too, because I'm kind of curious how the impressions
that I've formed
so far will hold up in the play-offs.
I fully expect >50% of these predictions to blow up in my face.
I'll give it a go again this year.
the NHL than I have. Calgary were so disappointing this year, and
whether the long term benefits of their rebuild will be apparent next
year is pretty doubtful. Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Toffoli, Hanafin, Tanev and others all gone, and other than Blake Coleman, and to an extent
Sharangovich, their replacements have underperformed.
All four Canada-based teams won their last game - must be ages since
that happened in the playoffs.
On 2024-04-23 11:40 a.m., MH wrote:
On 2024-04-20 15:25, Werner Pichler wrote:
On 17.04.2023 00:10, Werner Pichler wrote:Thanks for this. You have obviously been paying a lot more attention
I've watched quite a lot of NHL this season, much more than usual,
so I'll jot down my
thoughts here, too, because I'm kind of curious how the impressions
that I've formed
so far will hold up in the play-offs.
I fully expect >50% of these predictions to blow up in my face.
I'll give it a go again this year.
to the NHL than I have. Calgary were so disappointing this year, and
whether the long term benefits of their rebuild will be apparent next
year is pretty doubtful. Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Toffoli, Hanafin, Tanev
and others all gone, and other than Blake Coleman, and to an extent
Sharangovich, their replacements have underperformed.
All four Canada-based teams won their last game - must be ages since
that happened in the playoffs.
I am not sure if going all Homer on Canadian teams was such a good idea?
The Leafs are never a good idea and the Jets have a hill to climb, the
Oilers and Canucks look good to advance though.
Rangers are already through in 4 games, we are projecting them to win
the Cup.
And now I quickly need to brag a bit before the randomness of Game 7s
knocks me down from 7/8 correct series winners to 5/8.
On 20.04.2024 23:25, Werner Pichler wrote:
On 17.04.2023 00:10, Werner Pichler wrote:
Bruins (A2) vs Maple Leafs (A3)
'It was 4-1!'
This will be interesting. On paper, both teams should be worse than last
season, with Boston still feeling the loss of Bergeron and Krejčí, and
Toronto still not having addressed any of their problem areas (defence,
goaltending, overreliance on their Core 4). Having finally overcome the
seemingly insurmountable First Round hurdle last year might give the
Leafs an extra edge, but old habits die hard.
Boston in 7.
And we have a Game 7, starting in a couple of hours.
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