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  • All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...

    From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jul 28 14:14:59 2023
    So, I was asked to do a presentation on the SophCon. Here are the slides, which I think some of you may find interesting:

    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/b592687kj4xkdoko5sim0/ProbabilisticPredictionContests_ROSES_July2023.pdf?rlkey=lpl0evruvaw3pvebe85irc39z&raw=1

    You may be curious in particular about the Table on page 33 (slide 40 out of 52). ;-)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From MH@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Sat Jul 29 11:27:51 2023
    On 2023-07-28 15:14, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    So, I was asked to do a presentation on the SophCon. Here are the slides, which I think some of you may find interesting:

    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/b592687kj4xkdoko5sim0/ProbabilisticPredictionContests_ROSES_July2023.pdf?rlkey=lpl0evruvaw3pvebe85irc39z&raw=1

    You may be curious in particular about the Table on page 33 (slide 40 out of 52). ;-)





    Are you allowed to disclose the identity of the human "experts" ?

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jul 29 12:12:45 2023
    On Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 11:27:55 AM UTC-4, MH wrote:
    On 2023-07-28 15:14, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    So, I was asked to do a presentation on the SophCon. Here are the slides, which I think some of you may find interesting:

    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/b592687kj4xkdoko5sim0/ProbabilisticPredictionContests_ROSES_July2023.pdf?rlkey=lpl0evruvaw3pvebe85irc39z&raw=1

    You may be curious in particular about the Table on page 33 (slide 40 out of 52). ;-)





    Are you allowed to disclose the identity of the human "experts" ?

    If the experts agree to have their name disclosed, sure!

    Expert 1, very pissed at having the best record of all the humans on a variety of metrics,
    and not a single entry in the Hall if Sophistication to show for it...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From MH@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Sat Jul 29 15:23:04 2023
    On 2023-07-29 13:12, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 11:27:55 AM UTC-4, MH wrote:
    On 2023-07-28 15:14, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    So, I was asked to do a presentation on the SophCon. Here are the slides, which I think some of you may find interesting:

    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/b592687kj4xkdoko5sim0/ProbabilisticPredictionContests_ROSES_July2023.pdf?rlkey=lpl0evruvaw3pvebe85irc39z&raw=1

    You may be curious in particular about the Table on page 33 (slide 40 out of 52). ;-)





    Are you allowed to disclose the identity of the human "experts" ?

    If the experts agree to have their name disclosed, sure!

    I agree, what harm can it do ?


    Expert 1, very pissed at having the best record of all the humans on a variety of metrics,
    and not a single entry in the Hall if Sophistication to show for it...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jul 31 04:30:47 2023
    On Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 3:23:07 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:

    If the experts agree to have their name disclosed, sure!

    I didn't want to reveal your names without your consent.

    This is the un-anonymized table:

    Winner Top 3 Avg. Perce~k vs Agnostic vs CC

    FiveThirty~t 4 14 68.285 0.106 -0.003 Collective~s 0 7 67.016 0.107 0.000 TransferMa~t 4 9 62.586 0.099 -0.009
    ClubElo 3 7 61.619 0.105 -0.003
    Jesper 3 6 55.736 0.067 -0.052
    Futbolmetrix 0 6 51.871 0.092 -0.015
    Werner 1 7 49.000 0.088 -0.020
    MH 3 8 45.958 0.075 -0.040
    Anders 1 1 21.229 0.037 -0.098
    Agnostic 0 1 12.225 -0.000 -0.132


    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Mon Jul 31 05:03:47 2023
    On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 7:30:49 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 3:23:07 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:

    If the experts agree to have their name disclosed, sure!
    I didn't want to reveal your names without your consent.

    This is the un-anonymized table:

    Winner Top 3 Avg. Perce~k vs Agnostic vs CC

    FiveThirty~t 4 14 68.285 0.106 -0.003
    Collective~s 0 7 67.016 0.107 0.000
    TransferMa~t 4 9 62.586 0.099 -0.009
    ClubElo 3 7 61.619 0.105 -0.003
    Jesper 3 6 55.736 0.067 -0.052
    Futbolmetrix 0 6 51.871 0.092 -0.015
    Werner 1 7 49.000 0.088 -0.020
    MH 3 8 45.958 0.075 -0.040
    Anders 1 1 21.229 0.037 -0.098
    Agnostic 0 1 12.225 -0.000 -0.132

    Reorganizing to make it easier to read in non fixed-width font

    Wins Top3 AvgPercentileRank vsAgnostic vsCC
    4 14 68.285 0.106 -0.003 FiveThirtyEight
    0 7 67.016 0.107 0.000 CollectiveConsciousness
    4 9 62.586 0.099 -0.009 TransferMa~t
    3 7 61.619 0.105 -0.003 ClubElo
    3 6 55.736 0.067 -0.052 Jesper
    0 6 51.871 0.092 -0.015 Futbolmetrix
    1 7 49.000 0.088 -0.020 Werner
    3 8 45.958 0.075 -0.040 MH
    1 1 21.229 0.037 -0.098 Anders
    0 1 12.225 -0.000 -0.132 Agnostic

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Werner Pichler@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Mon Jul 31 04:47:10 2023
    On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 1:30:49 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 3:23:07 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:

    If the experts agree to have their name disclosed, sure!
    I didn't want to reveal your names without your consent.

    This is the un-anonymized table:

    Winner Top 3 Avg. Perce~k vs Agnostic vs CC

    FiveThirty~t 4 14 68.285 0.106 -0.003
    Collective~s 0 7 67.016 0.107 0.000
    TransferMa~t 4 9 62.586 0.099 -0.009
    ClubElo 3 7 61.619 0.105 -0.003
    Jesper 3 6 55.736 0.067 -0.052
    Futbolmetrix 0 6 51.871 0.092 -0.015
    Werner 1 7 49.000 0.088 -0.020
    MH 3 8 45.958 0.075 -0.040
    Anders 1 1 21.229 0.037 -0.098
    Agnostic 0 1 12.225 -0.000 -0.132

    I've always wanted to be Expert 3!

    I'm pretty sure Agnostic doesn't care either way.


    Ciao,
    Werner

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Werner Pichler@21:1/5 to Werner Pichler on Thu Aug 3 03:42:08 2023
    On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 1:47:13 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
    On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 1:30:49 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 3:23:07 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:

    If the experts agree to have their name disclosed, sure!
    I didn't want to reveal your names without your consent.

    This is the un-anonymized table:

    Winner Top 3 Avg. Perce~k vs Agnostic vs CC

    FiveThirty~t 4 14 68.285 0.106 -0.003
    Collective~s 0 7 67.016 0.107 0.000
    TransferMa~t 4 9 62.586 0.099 -0.009
    ClubElo 3 7 61.619 0.105 -0.003
    Jesper 3 6 55.736 0.067 -0.052
    Futbolmetrix 0 6 51.871 0.092 -0.015
    Werner 1 7 49.000 0.088 -0.020
    MH 3 8 45.958 0.075 -0.040
    Anders 1 1 21.229 0.037 -0.098
    Agnostic 0 1 12.225 -0.000 -0.132

    I've always wanted to be Expert 3!

    I really hope my WWC predictions haven't yet entered into this.


    Ciao,
    Werner

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Werner Pichler on Thu Aug 3 05:18:12 2023
    On Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 6:42:11 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:

    I really hope my WWC predictions haven't yet entered into this.

    It was only based on the European Cups, where things are more directly comparable.
    Anyway, just about everybody had a bad score in WWC SophCon

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)